Jump to content

Featured Replies

38 minutes ago, seventyfour said:

Our Round 7 game is against Richmond, so we'd be 5-2 if results went the way of the above. Would be a brilliant start to the year.

I'd take 4-3.

Then West Coast in round 8 which I'm sure the boys will be itching to atone from last year's disaster over there.

4-3 is good on paper, but we have a really tough 3 weeks from rounds 9-11 with Hawthorn, Brisbane (away) then Sydney. May have to win a statement game against Fremantle or Geelong in Geelong (ideally get to 6-2) to bank some early wins before that challenging 3 weeks.

There's also a horror four weeks where we have Port, bye, GC and Adelaide all away.

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

 
24 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

There's also a horror four weeks where we have Port, bye, GC and Adelaide all away.

Still way better than last year though. The early season run in 2024 - something like 5 games in 25 days - was ridiculous. We were never a chance to beat Brisbane at the MCG that night.

8 hours ago, binman said:

We open with a bye. 

Quite. But at the end of Round 6, every club will have played six games and it’s a good time to reflect on how the season’s going.

I’m picking us to win our opening game at home vs GWS Giants. Geelong at the Cattery will be tough and if we beat the Dockers we should be well set towards a top four finish. 

I am however, still going to take things one week at a time.

  • 1 month later...
 

Bit of a difference in predictions here (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/winless-tigers-hawks-on-the-rise-our-experts-predict-season-2025-20250206-p5la7d.html)

Jake Niall - 6th
Michael Gleeson - 8th
Peter Ryan - 11th
Jon Pierik - 13th
Andrew Wu - 6th
Marc McGowan - 9th
Sam McClure - 11th
Caroline Wilson - 4th
Emma Kearney - 12th
Libby Birch  - 13th
Bob Murphy - 11th
Mathew Stokes - 13th
Scott Spits - 7th

adam simpson yesterday when freo were kicking with the wind and dominating "yeah i see them sliding"
full time "they reminded me how good they can be"


10 hours ago, roy11 said:

Bit of a difference in predictions here (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/winless-tigers-hawks-on-the-rise-our-experts-predict-season-2025-20250206-p5la7d.html)

Jake Niall - 6th
Michael Gleeson - 8th
Peter Ryan - 11th
Jon Pierik - 13th
Andrew Wu - 6th
Marc McGowan - 9th
Sam McClure - 11th
Caroline Wilson - 4th
Emma Kearney - 12th
Libby Birch  - 13th
Bob Murphy - 11th
Mathew Stokes - 13th
Scott Spits - 7th

Caro - 4th. Interesting.

OK, so that's The Age and The Herald Sun.

Looking forward now to The Saturday Paper, The New York Times, Pravda and The Asahi Shimbun predictors.

Striving for more certainty.

 
On 15/01/2025 at 16:36, Whispering_Jack said:

Quite. But at the end of Round 6, every club will have played six games and it’s a good time to reflect on how the season’s going.

I’m picking us to win our opening game at home vs GWS Giants. Geelong at the Cattery will be tough and if we beat the Dockers we should be well set towards a top four finish. 

I am however, still going to take things one week at a time.

Interesting to note that GWS will already have played one game. You'd have to think thats an advantage

The Herald Sun 'experts':

  • CHRIS CAVANAGH: Missing finals
  • LAUREN WOOD: Missing finals
  • JON RALPH: Missing finals
  • ELIZA REILLY: Missing finals
  • LACHLAN MCKIRDY: Bottom four
  • ED BOURKE: Missing finals
  • CALLUM DICK: Missing finals
  • SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON: Missing finals
  • Consensus prediction: 14th

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

The Herald Sun 'experts':

  • CHRIS CAVANAGH: Missing finals
  • LAUREN WOOD: Missing finals
  • JON RALPH: Missing finals
  • ELIZA REILLY: Missing finals
  • LACHLAN MCKIRDY: Bottom four
  • ED BOURKE: Missing finals
  • CALLUM DICK: Missing finals
  • SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON: Missing finals
  • Consensus prediction: 14th

The Herald Sun 'experts' : missing talent and integrity 

The Hawthorn hype from the media is ridiculous. Pre-season doco and all. What a [censored]. Hope they finish 9th but all them high tackle frees in forward 50 will get them in.

Tim Watson. SEN. 

1st Cats

2 Swans 

3 Crows !!! 

4 Lions

5 Blues

6 Pies

7 Freo

8 Demons 

missing the 8 … Hawks, Giants, Power, Bombers, Suns & Bulldogs. 

hard to tip a top 8 when 14 teams could easily be nominated to make it and 7-8 teams would seriously have claims for a top 4 finish 

wow … Crows at 3.  That’s Crazy!!! 

On 27/12/2024 at 19:22, Rab D Nesbitt said:

If we have a good run with injuries I'm confident we'll finish top 4 and have another tilt at a flag. I couldn't care less where anyone else finishes although Pies and Blues missing finals would be nice I guess. 

Nice! Nice! That would be like heaven on Earth. Oh please, please, let me live in that Universe.


On 04/03/2025 at 06:44, Whispering_Jack said:

The Herald Sun “experts” are less than impressed. They have us remaining static in 14th place. IMG_9002.thumb.jpeg.5f8ba9ae365c8f5f24eccc4ae02dd31c.jpeg

It’s worth bookmarking this …

These things are so boring:

 

Same GF

3 of 4 PF sides the same 

Hawthorn, Carlton, Freo jump up slightly 

the second last premier back into the 8 ( another team improving slightly)

A good GWS dropping a little after a horror end of year period.

WB with injuries dropping down

And slight readjustments among the bottom 7

*Yawn* I don't expect them to a North vs Sun GF and Sydney coming 11th. But this is boring and plenty will be wrong.

32 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Tim Watson. SEN. 

1st Cats

2 Swans 

3 Crows !!! 

4 Lions

5 Blues

6 Pies

7 Freo

8 Demons 

missing the 8 … Hawks, Giants, Power, Bombers, Suns & Bulldogs. 

hard to tip a top 8 when 14 teams could easily be nominated to make it and 7-8 teams would seriously have claims for a top 4 finish 

wow … Crows at 3.  That’s Crazy!!! 

There will be surprises. It sounds like in recent years a team well out if the eight make the prelims the year after. So it might be Crows. But it might be plenty of the others too.

1 hour ago, Clintosaurus said:

The Hawthorn hype from the media is ridiculous. Pre-season doco and all. What a [censored]. Hope they finish 9th but all them high tackle frees in forward 50 will get them in.

I don't see the justification for it either. I think people are picking them purely on gamestyle as it stood in the latter part of last year. 

There's nothing stopping them from doing a Collingwood in 2023 and going strength to strength but I can just as easily see them being worked out and lacking when the pressure is on.

https://www.3aw.com.au/rory-sloane-thinks-demons-will-respond-massively-in-2025/

3aw Season Preview with lloyd and Rory Sloane. Demons from around 18:46

3AW Football’s Rory Sloane has praised Melbourne’s “incredibly driven” superstars, as they look to feature in September action in 2025.

The former Adelaide Crows captain is confident Simon Goodwin’s side will get back to their best footy and make a big climb up the ladder.

“It’s scary playing against those guys,” Sloane said on the 3AW Football pre-season podcast.

“It excited me working with that midfield group, a lot of them are incredibly driven.”

Edited by jnrmac

Thought this was a thread from March 2021 for a second

Most likely to be sacked?  Goodwin

Won a flag

Staggering how the media don't learn from history.

But I love it.  Stick it right up them Demons!


A team with a tall fwd line of Chol won’t be winning the flag

@WheeloRatings

The ABC have rightly given you credit in this article:

unpredictable-afl-season-2025-set-to-be-most-open-in-years

It was remarkably accurate in 2024 wins eg Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees rises and falls.  Their respective 2023 wins were 7, 12, 18 and 16.   The actual for 2024 is in the table below.  The 'draw strength' must have been statistically very significant.

Does  the 'Pythagorean' thing have much statistical credibility?  

Accounting for underlying team strength (Pythagorean expectation) and draw strength

image.png.4017372df7ede380d23535d1437b86ea.png

 

The 11 predicted wins for us surprises me given we have a statistically easy draw.

If 'Pythagorean' does have cred then 2025 doesn't look too good for us. 

Think I'll ignore their 'logic' and continue to dream ...

... still confident that 2025 will atone 2023 ...

Edited by Lucifers Hero

 

the thing with the footy maths is that at the start of the year its not taking into account returns from injury, trades, big preseasons etc. so getting trac and oliver at their best back into that team probably adds a win or two by itself...

2 hours ago, biggestred said:

the thing with the footy maths is that at the start of the year its not taking into account returns from injury, trades, big preseasons etc. so getting trac and oliver at their best back into that team probably adds a win or two by itself...

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

Edited by Lucifers Hero


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • FEATURE: 1925

    A hundred years ago today, on 2 May 1925, Melbourne kicked off the new season with a 47 point victory over St Kilda to take top place on the VFL ladder after the opening round of the new season.  Top place was a relatively unknown position for the team then known as the “Fuchsias.” They had finished last in 1923 and rose by only one place in the following year although the final home and away round heralded a promise of things to come when they surprised the eventual premiers Essendon. That victory set the stage for more improvement and it came rapidly. In this series, I will tell the story of how the 1925 season unfolded for the Melbourne Football Club and how it made the VFL finals for the first time in a decade on the way to the ultimate triumph a year later.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • PREVIEW: West Coast

    Saturday’s election night game in Perth between the West Coast Eagles and Melbourne represents 18th vs 15th which makes it a tough decision as to which party to favour. The Eagles have yet to break the ice under their new coach in Andrew McQualter who is the second understudy in a row to confront Demon Coach Simon Goodwin who was also winless until a fortnight ago. On that basis, many punters might be considering to go with the donkey vote but I’ve been assigned with the task of helping readers to come to a considered opinion on this matter of vital importance across the nation. It was almost a year ago that I wrote a preview here of the Demons’ away game against the Eagles (under the name William from Waalitj because it was Indigenous Round).  I issued a warning that it was a danger game, based on my local knowledge that the home team were no longer easybeats and that they possessed a wunderkind generational player in Harley Reid who was capable of producing stellar performances playing among men a decade and more older than he.  At the time, the Eagles already had two wins off the back of a couple of the young man’s masterclasses and they had recently given the Bombers a scare straight after their Anzac Day blockbuster draw against the then reigning premiers.

    • 1 reply
    Demonland
  • NON-MFC: Round 08

    Round 08 of the 2025 AFL Season kicks off on Thursday with a must-win game for the Bombers to stay in touch with the top eight, while the struggling Roos seek a morale-boosting upset. Friday sees the Saints desperate for a win as well if they are to stay in finals contention and their opponents the Dockers will be eager to crack in to the Top 8 with a win on the road. Saturday kicks off with a pivotal clash for both sides asthe Bulldogs look to solidify their top-eight spot, while Port seeks to shake their pretender tag. Then the Crows will be looking to steady their topsy turvy season against a resurgent Blues looking to make it 4 wins on the trot. On Election Night a Blockbuster will see the ladder-leading Pies take on the Cats, who are keen to bounce back after a narrow loss. On Sunday the Sydney Derby promises fireworks as the Giants aim to cement their top-eight status, while the Swans fight to keep their season alive. The Hawks, celebrating their centenary, will be looking to easily account for the Tigers who are desperate to halt their slide. The Round concludes on Sunday Night with a top end of the table QClash with significant ladder implications; both Queensland teams are in scintillating form. Who are you tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons?

    • 148 replies
    Demonland
  • PREGAME: West Coast

    The Demons hit the road in Round 8, heading to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium. With momentum building, the Dees will be aiming for a third straight victory to keep their season revival on course. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Like
    • 563 replies
    Demonland
  • REPORT: Richmond

    The fans who turned up to the MCG for Melbourne’s Anzac Day Eve clash against Richmond would have been disappointed if they turned up to see a great spectacle. As much as this was a night for the 71,635 in attendance to commemorate heroes of the nation’s past wars, it was also a time for the Melbourne Football Club to consolidate upon its first win after a horrific start to the 2025 season. On this basis, despite the fact that it was an uninspiring and dour struggle for most of its 100 minutes, the night will be one for the fans to remember. They certainly got value out of the pre match activity honouring those who fought for their country. The MCG and the lights of the city as backdrop was made for nights such as these and, in my view, we received a more inspirational ceremony of Anzac culture than others both here and elsewhere around the country. 

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • CASEY: Richmond

    The match up of teams competing in our great Aussie game at its second highest level is a rarity for a work day Thursday morning but the blustery conditions that met the players at a windswept Casey Fields was something far more commonplace.They turned the opening stanza between the Casey Demons and a somewhat depleted Richmond VFL into a mess of fumbling unforced errors, spilt marks and wasted opportunities for both sides but they did set up a significant win for the home team which is exactly what transpired on this Anzac Day round opener. Casey opened up strong against the breeze with the first goal to Aidan Johnson, the Tigers quickly responded and the game degenerated into a defensive slog and the teams were level when the first siren sounded.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland