The Pick 1 Thread

[ChaserJ 5,157]

On 21/10/2023 at 17:25, Pennant St Dee said:

Yes we have

Good yarn on Dan Curtin in today's Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/why-top-afl-draft-prospect-put-a-media-ban-on-himself-20231019-p5edl2.html

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

This will make WCE decision on picks for ND1 interesting. 2023-lance-collard-fremantle-west-coast-eagles

"Fremantle has interest in exciting WA forward prospect Lance Collard, to the point where West Coast is considering trading ahead of the Dockers to ensure it still lands its Next Generation...

...Collard, who grew up a Fremantle supporter, is tied to the Eagles via their Next Generation Academy. Yet West Coast can only match a bid on him if it lands outside the top 40 picks — and it now seems highly unlikely Collard will slip past the top 40.

The Dockers hold Picks 34, 46. 60, 64 and 81 in this year‘s draft, while the Eagles have Picks 1, 23, 37, 58 and 85"

How far ahead of Freo will WCE have to jump to get Collard, especially as Freo have a fist full of extra 2024 first round picks they can use to keep leap frogging WCE?

We don't have a pick in the 25 to 30 range to offer WCE as part of an ND 1 package  We could get one via another club but it is getting harder to see how we can get ND1. 

WCE might now be interested in one or more of those late first round picks North previously offered.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[Pennant St Dee 13,305]

26 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This will make WCE decision on picks for ND1 interesting. 2023-lance-collard-fremantle-west-coast-eagles

"Fremantle has interest in exciting WA forward prospect Lance Collard, to the point where West Coast is considering trading ahead of the Dockers to ensure it still lands its Next Generation...

...Collard, who grew up a Fremantle supporter, is tied to the Eagles via their Next Generation Academy. Yet West Coast can only match a bid on him if it lands outside the top 40 picks — and it now seems highly unlikely Collard will slip past the top 40.

The Dockers hold Picks 34, 46. 60, 64 and 81 in this year‘s draft, while the Eagles have Picks 1, 23, 37, 58 and 85"

How far ahead of Freo will WCE have to jump to get Collard, especially as Freo have a fist full of extra 2024 first round picks they can use to keep leap frogging WCE?

We don't have a pick in the 25 to 30 range to offer WCE as part of an ND 1 package  We could get one via another club but it is getting harder to see how we can get ND1. 

WCE might now be interested in one or more of those late first round picks North previously offered.

Collard will be bid well before pick 40, not just by Fremantle, North with their first 5 picks inside 19 will take a punt on him

[DeeSpencer 26,082]

49 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Collard will be bid well before pick 40, not just by Fremantle, North with their first 5 picks inside 19 will take a punt on him

He makes sense for both clubs but I wouldn’t be surprised if Freo don’t try to trade either Collingwood or Port’s future first round pick to North for 17 or 18. 

Doesn’t make a lot of sense for North to have 5 picks in the same draft and Freo will be desperate to get a first rounder in rather than wait for 3 next year. 

[BangBnagBang 703]

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

[adonski 12,436]

4 minutes ago, BangBnagBang said:

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

Overs for McAdam

[SthSea22 637]

11 minutes ago, BangBnagBang said:

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

Surely not for Pick 1 only 

[Redleg 41,451]

15 minutes ago, BangBnagBang said:

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

If true we are out contention for Reid.

Take 2 good players and be done with it.

[Nascent 9,283]

1 minute ago, Redleg said:

If true we are out contention for Reid.

Take 2 good players and be done with it.

Sounds like it.

Either that or West Coast are holding out for a better offer from North in the lead up to the draft. Either way it seems highly unlikely we'll land Reid.

[Colm 2,187]

17 minutes ago, BangBnagBang said:

Cal Twomey reporting on the latest GETTABLE ep that Melbourne offered 6,11,42 and F1 during trade week!!!!!

I thought from what he said that the above offer was still on the table but WC had said no to it. We have nothing more to give. 
North have also offered pick 2 and two late teen picks but want WC pick 23 as part of the deal. WC said no to this offer as well. 

 

[Colm 2,187]

He also said we are still looking to move up with 6 & 11 and that ourselves and Adelaide were interested in Cats pick 8. 
Also said that Windsor had move up some club boards and might go inside top 10 now. 

[Demonland 73,140]

 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

That is silly on both fronts.

1. Melbourne for putting up a stupid over-the-top bid for one player and,

2.WC for rejected an over-the-top bid for Pick 1.

6,11,42,F1 for Pick 1 is incredibly generous. They are delusional if they think Norf is going to hand over Pick 2,3. They are likely in a position where they have settled on Reid and it will take considerable overs for them to budge. 

 

 

[Whispering_Jack 30,673]

29 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

If true, I would be very disappointed that we are selling the entire farm for one player. Happy if they let it go.

[Mike 329]

It'll be interesting if WCE end up keeping pick 1, getting Reid, and we use 6 on Curtin. You'd think WCE would want to build a list of WA talent. Maybe we could do a straight swap in a few years? Wouldn't that be nice.

[Demonland 73,140]

 

[Bitter but optimistic 22,246]

Ridiculous offer for one player!

He must be a combination of Superman, Batman and The Flash - and no weakness to Kryptonite!

FMD !!!!

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

 

1 hour ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Ridiculous offer for one player! 

He must be a combination of Superman, Batman and The Flash - and no weakness to Kryptonite!

FMD !!!!

 

1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

6,11,42,F1 for Pick 1 is incredibly generous.

 

Especially when pick 11 cost us 14, 27 and 35 generally thought as us paying overs. 

So the offer is really 6, 14, 27, 35, 42 and F1 ie  3 first round picks plus 3 second round picks

Crazy stuff!! 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[Pipefitter 2,168]

1 hour ago, Redleg said:

If true we are out contention for Reid.

Take 2 good players and be done with it.

I’ve actually finally watched some player highlights and am comfortable that we will be getting a very good footy player in that range. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

22 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Collard will be bid well before pick 40, not just by Fremantle, North with their first 5 picks inside 19 will take a punt on him

I was thinking he would go in the 25 to 30 range but yeah maybe higher now.

Have WCE 'snookered' themselves?  They take Reid with pick 1 and probably miss out on both Curtin and Collard.  Or they cash in pick 1 with North for 2 or 3 (Curtin) and a late 1st round (Collard) and possibly pay overs for both.  Or take our offer and risk missing Curtin at pick 6 and maybe missing Collard as well.

WCE will need to do some nifty pick trading with more than one club if they hope to get both players.

[Mach5 4,768]

I think WC will initially set a high bar, but should eventually realise the best result for them is to split the pick for as much as they can get. I think they’re trying to tease more out of North. We should/will pivot to working with North to “assist” them to get pick 1, and strengthening our hand in the process.

I know the numbers look bad in terms of “selling the farm” but I think when you look at the prospects available, it’s the smart move for us.
 

[deelusions from afar 1,861]

Interesting to see how all parties manage expectations from here.

On the West Coast Bigfooty board (I know) they are underwhelmed by the offers.  The seem to think they will get 2 and 3 from North and give something back.  As delusional as it is - if they're fans genuinely think that then the generous offers that are already there are not going to cut it for their fans.

The hawks offer for them is the closest (but has the risk of the hawks climbing the ladder next year).

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

12 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC will initially set a high bar, but should eventually realise the best result for them is to split the pick for as much as they can get. I think they’re trying to tease more out of North. We should/will pivot to working with North to “assist” them to get pick 1, and strengthening our hand in the process.

I know the numbers look bad in terms of “selling the farm” but I think when you look at the prospects available, it’s the smart move for us.
 

I would prefer we keep 6 and use 11, 42 and F1 to get another top 10 pick and get two top 10 players than go all out for Reid. 

GWS's pick 7 would be a good target (+/- other picks) as they also have 16 so a decent hand to swap or take to the draft. 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

 

5 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC will initially set a high bar, but should eventually realise the best result for them is to split the pick for as much as they can get. I think they’re trying to tease more out of North. We should/will pivot to working with North to “assist” them to get pick 1, and strengthening our hand in the process.

I know the numbers look bad in terms of “selling the farm” but I think when you look at the prospects available, it’s the smart move for us.
 

I cant see North offering 2&3. I just dont think anybody would be that silly albeit #3 was a freebie. However, that is the only trade that will trump our offer of 6,11,42,F1 and i just cannot see it happening. 

Norf can try to package up their later picks (combo of 15,17,18) to try to move a little higher up the order. Maybe they throw all 3 for Cats Pick 8? Whatever they potentially get could be combined with #2 and a F1 (AFL compensation) and it would be comparable to ours, but that is unlikely. 

So like it or not, ours will be the best offer put to WC. I just hope that they don't accept it.

[DeeSpencer 26,082]

4 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC will initially set a high bar, but should eventually realise the best result for them is to split the pick for as much as they can get. I think they’re trying to tease more out of North. We should/will pivot to working with North to “assist” them to get pick 1, and strengthening our hand in the process.

I know the numbers look bad in terms of “selling the farm” but I think when you look at the prospects available, it’s the smart move for us.
 

If I’m west coast and I rate Curtin as either the 2nd best player or the best option for them I’m trading;

pick 1 to the Roos FOR
2 and ideally North’s future first (or another first) and a late first

trading pick 2 with Melbourne FOR
6 and 11 or 6 and a future first.

That way they end up with 6 and 3 other firsts. 

Not sure a team has ever traded anything for 4 first round picks. And if it includes Norths future first and pick 11 from us then it’s a good collection of them too, not just later ones