The Pick 1 Thread

[Garbo 1,454]

7 hours ago, Gator said:

Draft guru Mick Ablett said on SEN this morning that he thinks three clubs will be involved with the pick one move, i.e. West Coast, North and us.

If we can't get Reid I'd love to get Duursma by getting involved and somehow securing pick 3.

I’d say best chance of getting pick 1 would be package up 6 and futures 1st for 3 and then trade 3 and 11 for 1

[Gator 17,212]

37 minutes ago, Garbo said:

I’d say best chance of getting pick 1 would be package up 6 and futures 1st for 3 and then trade 3 and 11 for 1

My views are different to many but I reckon Duursma has every chance of being as good as Reid, or close to it.  So pick 3 would do me.

If we retain pick 6 I'd be taking Curtin, if he was there.

EDIT: I really like Tarkyn O'Leary for a rookie spot, but I suspect he'll be drafted late.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Gator

[picket fence 16,631]

On the basis we might need another mid I would be moving Heaven and Earth to get Reid

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

21 minutes ago, picket fence said:

On the basis we might need another mid I would be moving Heaven and Earth to get Reid

Agreed, but I find it hard to see how we can match Norf's bounty.

Otherwise, I'd be keen to go for pick 2 or 3 from Norf. McKercher or Duursma would be grand, but not for 6, 11 and F1st. That's a bridge too far

 

[Mach5 4,596]

1 hour ago, Gator said:

North keep pick 3 ?

I doubt West Coast are doing that trade.  They'll want one of North's picks 2 or 3.

Nah, did it quickly & looking at it again it’s not right. Our F1 could easily be better than 15. And I think teams will be betting on us sliding down the ladder.

[CHF 2,696]

It will be interesting to see which way WC go with this pick. 

I just do not see the advantage for WC to keep pick 1 and take Reid. I do not see a single player having the impact they need at the moment given the situation they are in. 

I think they will split the pick with either us or North depending on the way they see the draft selections going.

While I am sure they would like to get Curtin into the club along with another top 15 selection this year, they might well think that they can forego Curtain if they believe there is other quality options.

I think we need to keep in mind that WC have all their draft options in play for next year as well.

I think this will only be resolved on draft night.

[bing181 8,894]

We are no chance.

 

 

[bing181 8,894]

And ...

 

 

[dazzledavey36 52,692]

3 minutes ago, bing181 said:

And ...

 

 

That pretty much leaves us with Curtin...

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,836]

30 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That pretty much leaves us with Curtin...

I assumed with Hawks taking Ginnivan and their lack of key backs that they would shifty attention from Watson to Curtin. If not though he Bradbury’s to us and we would be silly not to swoop. In saying that I think there is still more likelihood we push up to 3 and jag Duursma in some form of Nth, WC three way deal. 

[Deemac 125]

I can see us trading 6-11 for dursma I hope it’s worth it

[Fat Tony 5,071]

1 hour ago, Deemac said:

I can see us trading 6-11 for dursma I hope it’s worth it

I think we would want another late first round or early second round pick. 

[old55 22,753]

3 hours ago, bing181 said:

We are no chance.

 

 

The only way I can see that is happening is:

MFC give North 6 + 11 for 3

North give WC 2 + 6 for 1

That means North give 2 + 3 to WC for 1 + 11

[Redleg 39,978]

16 minutes ago, old55 said:

The only way I can see that is happening is:

MFC give North 6 + 11 for 3

North give WC 2 + 6 for 1

That means North give 2 + 3 to WC for 1 + 11

You are probably correct.

North can also throw a late first rounder to WC as spice.

However for us, if we are after Duursma, he could cost us a Sanders/Curtin and a O'Sullivan/Caddy/etc.

That is a huge price to pay for one kid who is a flanker essentially.

I would be happy keeping our picks and maybe trying to move our second pick up slightly, or if we did the above deal, to get Duursma, giving 42 as well and getting a late first back from North and maybe getting someone like Ollie Murphy as a key back.

We may not have access to these high picks for a while, unless Petty leaves, so I hope if we are chasing Duursma, he is worth it.

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Redleg

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,836]

9 minutes ago, Redleg said:

You are probably correct.

North can also throw a late first rounder to WC as spice.

However for us, if we are after Duursma, he could cost us a Sanders/Curtin and a O'Sullivan/Caddy/etc.

That is a huge price to pay for one kid who is a flanker essentially.

I would be happy keeping our picks and maybe trying to move our second pick up slightly, or if we did the above deal, to get Duursma, giving 42 as well and getting a late first back from North and maybe getting someone like Ollie Murphy as a key back.

We may not have access to these high picks for a while, unless Petty leaves, so I hope if we are chasing Duursma, he is worth it.

 

I dont think we or he see him as a flanker longer term. We should be looking for our next elite addition more so than a few quality players. If we make the move JT clearly thinks its worth it and he has the runs on the board for that to be enough for me. I have seen enough of his set of attributes to think its likely the thinking. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Lil_red_fire_engine

[ChaserJ 4,640]

28 minutes ago, old55 said:

The only way I can see that is happening is:

MFC give North 6 + 11 for 3

North give WC 2 + 6 for 1

That means North give 2 + 3 to WC for 1 + 11

We’d probably need something else back as well if we’re playing a decisive role in helping those clubs achieve their goals.

Would think one of those later 1st round picks North have stashed or WC’s 2nd rounder.

[old55 22,753]

5 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

We’d probably need something else back as well if we’re playing a decisive role in helping those clubs achieve their goals.

Would think one of those later 1st round picks North have stashed or WC’s 2nd rounder.

IMO, North are giving up the most in my proposed deal, maybe WC could contribute 23 and we could throw in 42 back.  North have enough picks already so 23 and 42 aren't much value to them.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2023/

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 get 1 + 11 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 18, 57

MFC give 6 + 11 + 42 get 3 + 23 - result 3, 23

 

[Nascent 8,607]

4 hours ago, bing181 said:

And ...

 

 

Caddy not lasting to pick 8 speculation is interesting. As far as I can tell no club before us have been linked to him yet. That leaves us and GWS as potential suitors maybe? Or perhaps there's more twists in the top part of the draft to come.

Hypothetical question.

If Caddy was still on the board at our pick and Geelong came hard for him with an offer of pick 8 and future 1st, would you consider it?

We go to the draft with 8 and 11 and deathride Geelong who I think will spend another year outside finals.

This would certainly mean goodbye to the crop of Reid, Curtin, Duursma, McKercher, Sanders, Watson.

8 and 11 could net us O'Sullivan and perhaps a Windsor/Leake/Wilson

[Nascent 8,607]

21 minutes ago, old55 said:

IMO, North are giving up the most in my proposed deal, maybe WC could contribute 23 and we could throw in 42 back.  North have enough picks already so 23 and 42 aren't much value to them.

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2023/

WC give 1 + 23 get 2 + 6 + 42 - result: 2, 6, 37, 42, 58

North give 2 + 3 get 1 + 11 - result: 1, 11, 15, 17, 18, 57

MFC give 6 + 11 + 42 get 3 + 23 - result 3, 23

 

This is an interesting scenario. I'm still undecided but on face value I would probably prefer 6 and 11 but can see the appeal of getting up to 3.

Most likely look like.

1. North - Reid

2. WC - Curtin

3. Melb - McKercher/Duursma

Alternatively, if West Coast has strong intel that Curtin slides to 6, as is the speculation currently, do they take a risk and select Duursma/McKercher at 2?

[old55 22,753]

3 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Alternatively, if West Coast has strong intel that Curtin slides to 6, as is the speculation currently, do they take a risk and select Duursma/McKercher at 2?

That would be the attraction for them

Edited October 21, 2023 by old55

[Gator 17,212]

2 minutes ago, Nascent said:

This is an interesting scenario. I'm still undecided but on face value I would probably prefer 6 and 11 but can see the appeal of getting up to 3.

Most likely look like.

1. North - Reid

2. WC - Curtin

3. Melb - McKercher/Duursma

Alternatively, if West Coast has strong intel that Curtin slides to 6, as is the speculation currently, do they take a risk and select Duursma/McKercher at 2?

Supposedly West Coast love McKercher, so, if true, your scenario of McKercher and Curtin would be of interest to them.

[ChaserJ 4,640]

1 hour ago, Nascent said:

Caddy not lasting to pick 8 speculation is interesting. As far as I can tell no club before us have been linked to him yet. That leaves us and GWS as potential suitors maybe? Or perhaps there's more twists in the top part of the draft to come.

Hypothetical question.

If Caddy was still on the board at our pick and Geelong came hard for him with an offer of pick 8 and future 1st, would you consider it?

We go to the draft with 8 and 11 and deathride Geelong who I think will spend another year outside finals.

This would certainly mean goodbye to the crop of Reid, Curtin, Duursma, McKercher, Sanders, Watson.

8 and 11 could net us O'Sullivan and perhaps a Windsor/Leake/Wilson

From the linked article, the below immediately precedes the statement about Caddy not getting to Geelong:

'Hawthorn likes small forward Nick Watson and Western Bulldogs are eyeing gun midfielder Ryley Sanders at pick five, leaving star goal kicker Nate Caddy for Melbourne at pick six.'

Edited October 21, 2023 by ChaserJ

[Nascent 8,607]

39 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

From the linked article, the below immediately precedes the statement about Caddy not getting to Geelong:

'Hawthorn likes small forward Nick Watson and Western Bulldogs are eyeing gun midfielder Ryley Sanders at pick five, leaving star goal kicker Nate Caddy for Melbourne at pick six.'

Thanks mate, didn't have access.

Edit: wonder if that's speculation on Caddy to us or intel.

Be curious to see how we play with a forward line of JvR, Jefferson and Caddy, who we will have taken in consecutive years. Throw in Fritsch and Fullarton and its looking top heavy. One to play back perhaps.

I'm more inclined to believe we will trade up for 3 and take Duursma.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Nascent

[DeeSpencer 24,682]

6 hours ago, bing181 said:

We are no chance.

 

 

I’m not so sure about that, 6 and 11 is very close to 2 single figure picks and we have a pathway to offer them 6 and 8. Especially as it sounds more likely than not that Curtin is there at 6 and Geelong’s first preference of Caddy might be gone too.

And our future first is looking more valuable by the day with the way things are going!

I still think the Eagles take the pick or North find a way to turn 3 and a heap of late firsts in to something the Eagles want, but I’m yet to see anything that completely rules us out.

[rjay 24,574]

10 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I’m not so sure about that, 6 and 11 is very close to 2 single figure picks and we have a pathway to offer them 6 and 8. Especially as it sounds more likely than not that Curtin is there at 6 and Geelong’s first preference of Caddy might be gone too.

And our future first is looking more valuable by the day with the way things are going!

I still think the Eagles take the pick or North find a way to turn 3 and a heap of late firsts in to something the Eagles want, but I’m yet to see anything that completely rules us out.

I think it's a good chance that we take pick 3 to the draft.

If it's 6 & 11 well it's still a good hand.