PREGAME: Rd 22 vs Carlton

[layzie 33,989]

1 hour ago, Deebauched said:

The only possible reason why a womens soccer game rated so well was because it was on a Monday night as very few people go out on the first working day/ night.  Big night for TV and advertisers.

MFC attendance problem is most supporters have died of old age. It'll take years of success to get the big numbers back consistently.

8:30pm kickoff didn't do it any favours though especially for youngsters wanting to watch.

Thought it was an amazing result considering.

[dazzledavey36 55,315]

Welcome back Clarry 

 

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

2 hours ago, binman said:

I might have missed some, but I don't recall reading any posts that underrate the blues.

So them being seriously underrated on here is a stretch.

I'd actually argue that you're on rhe money - if anything they are being overrated by some. At least in terms of their chances of beating us

As I have noted many times, the betting market for a match provides the best objective relative head to head assessments of teams.

The market's assessment is we are the clear favorites for this match @ 1.72.

Which, by the by, is shorter than the pies are against the Cats.

Which of course doesn't mean the blues won't win. But it does mean the more probable outcome is we will win.

I actually would have us a bit shorter, perhaps 1.65.

I think the blues are in fact a touch overrated - at least for this match.

Whilst they have done really well to win without Kennedy, McKay, Walsh and Cerra, they are big outs, particularly against us.

Assuming oliver plays, we have Petty and Fritter our best 22, but i still think we are ahead on the injury front (I'm not sure if durdin and sos are in their best 22? But both have been in their team thru the season).

We are in red hot form too, and with our midfield and maxy in great nick, we are very well placed to exploit the absence of Walsh and Cerra (which would be the equivalent of us not having oliver and tracc).

They have a very similar game plan to ours - forward half, get territory,win contests.

But that works in our favour because over the journey we are the best in those areas (teams with different methods, like the Hawks, crows and lions worry me more because we have to adjust our method  more)

They have massively improved their transition game. Daniel hoyne posits that is why they have improved so much. Again, we have a better transition game over the journey.

The likely wet weather creates a variable. But i don't think it favours one side more than the other.

I'm not sure how the blues have gone in the wet, but we have struggled, in large part because it exacerbates our poor foot skills.

But we did ok when it got wet against the tigers.

Slippery conditions make it harder for curnow, but brings their small forwards into play.

The slippery conditions mitigates the loss of Petty, and our small forwards were brilliant last week.

We have one really big advantage.

The blues have been running out games really well, so are obviously fit. But i dont have a good sense of how fit they are blue relative to us.

But I do know we are close to being in top shape, are super fit, and have been stronger for longer in all our games since the saints win.

The advantage we have in that space is the blues are coming of two hugely taxing games - physically and psychologically.

Their game against the pies was ferocious and intense. And last week, the saints applied incredible pressure and were super hard at it - particularly in the first half.

We have seen recently the impact of back to back tough games on the pies and port. Neither team had won since their epic match at AO. And both have looked flattened.

We had two tough games against the lions and crows, which made our tigers win even more meritorious.

The roos were hard at it last week, but really only for a half. And the game wasn't intense in terms of stakes, build up or a huge crowd going ballistic.

And we had the luxury of basically resting our midfield in the last quarter, with maxy, tracc and viney spending most of it sitting on the pine. 

On top of that, we are likely injecting one of the best 5 players in the competition into our midfield.

Clarry might be a bit ring rusty, but he will be fresh and ready to rumble.

I think we will win. 

The line is currently minus 4.5 (meaning we need to win by 5 or more points to cover the line).

I think that is too skinny, and would set it at 6.5 (but won't be taking the line on, because there's nothing worse than the dees losing AND also losing money).

I have a feeling we could look to make a statement and put the blues back in their box.

Under goody, we have always looked to do so against potential contenders and it makes sense to hit the blues because they are def contenders and there is a good chance we might have to play them in the finals.

Dees by 30 plus.

Great post Binman. I thing, by the weekend this will be an even money game. The Blues supporters are getting a little carried away with the money they are pouring on. And yes the Dees by 30 point or more. 

[old55 23,687]

14 hours ago, Demonland said:

Here is the door stop interview with Oliver.

 

Concern about Oliver's interview is completely overblown.  That's just the way he is.  There is absolutely nothing wrong there.

[old55 23,687]

13 hours ago, fr_ap said:

No - you don't get to do this to them and not us. Do you realise they're building the same narrative about us on their forum? It's standard fare for fans to fool themselves into confidence. 

"Collingwood had the flu, Brisbane [censored] the bed at their worst ground in the last 5 minutes, Adelaide had 5 out inc. Laird, Richmond pushed them all the way and the lowly Kangaroos completely outplayed them for a quarter. Petty is injured and Oliver will be rusty".

Not hard is it? Sound familiar or are you incapable of looking in the mirror? 

They have copied our game plan and are trying to copy our DNA. Contest & Defence. Statistically, they're the best in the comp at it since round 10. That's objective. 

Ignore them at your peril.

I feel good about how we've been tracking (or at least I did until Petty), but it's not inconceivable that they beat us at our own game on Saturday. I hope not as I have tickets, but if so there will be apparently be some very surprised folks on here. 

I think we should win vs Carlton.  They play a similar brand to us, but we've been doing it for longer, have better overall personnel and have fewer injuries.  It won't be easy, but I'm more confident in these like-for-like battles than against teams like Adelaide and Collingwood who play a more attacking style.

[roy11 3,892]

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Crowd numbers might be down on expectations because of the Matilda's QF being played just before our game. We know frrom the TV ratings for Monday's match that more people tuned in for it than watched the AFL Grand Final.

It might help to attract people to our game if the MCC announced that they would be showing the Matilda's game on the scoreboard before our game. (I don't know if they have the rights to be able to do that, though.)   

Meeting a mate at a pub before the footy, hoping the tillies can wrap it up in 90' otherwise. Won't be heading to the G until that game is over 

Imagine at least some of the TVs in the bars in the MCC will be showing the game if its on. Although Dees fans might be hoping to catch Adelaide pull one over Brisbane.

[Marco 72]

10 minutes ago, old55 said:

Concern about Oliver's interview is completely overblown.  That's just the way he is.  There is absolutely nothing wrong there.

Ultimate [censored] taken out of those reporters,that will teach them never to door stop him again

[OhMyDees 1,834]

How big is the cheer going to be when Clarry gets his first touch of the pill on Saturday?

[Jaded No More 68,972]

59 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Welcome back Clarry 

 

[rpfc 28,734]

2 hours ago, Deebauched said:

The only possible reason why a womens soccer game rated so well was because it was on a Monday night as very few people go out on the first working day/ night.  Big night for TV and advertisers.

MFC attendance problem is most supporters have died of old age. It'll take years of success to get the big numbers back consistently.

The. Only. Reason. Was. It’s. A. Monday.

You know sometimes the world changes even when you don’t think it should.

I will be watching the Matilda’s on Sat Night.

[Superunknown 4,223]

6 minutes ago, rpfc said:

The. Only. Reason. Was. It’s. A. Monday.

You know sometimes the world changes even when you don’t think it should.

I will be watching the Matilda’s on Sat Night.

👏

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

https://twitter.com/MelbourneFooty/status/1689101947352297472?s=20

 

[SFebes 4,884]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Welcome back Clarry 

 

Was never in doubt - only on Demonland. 

[Roost it far 8,575]

23 minutes ago, OhMyDees said:

How big is the cheer going to be when Clarry gets his first touch of the pill on Saturday?

That’ll take about 8 seconds

[old55 23,687]

I think there's 3 broad alternatives this week, in addition to Oliver for JJ or Harmes which applies in all 3:

In: Grundy Out: Petty
Positives: Retains the extra mid we have and allows us to sub Grundy (Hibberd as sub)
Negatives: Relies on Max/Grundy forward

In: Tomlinson or Hibberd Out: Petty
Positives: Retains the extra mid we have (Tomlinson or Hibberd as sub)
Negatives: Relies on Smith forward (which may be better than Gawn/Grundy). Means JVR has to ruck significant minutes - he did 37% vs North.

In: Tomlinson/Hibberd and Grundy Out: Petty, JJ/Harmes (so both of them are out, one for Oliver and one for Grundy)
Positives: Gives us Gawn/Grundy and Smith forward
Negatives: We lose the extra mid (but would have JJ or Harmes as sub)

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

Far be it for me, a lowly PA, to question the top dog, but I think this point is far too overstated on Demonland.

Name a game where the weather cost us?

When it rained during Geelong, we dominated them - they came back into it when it stopped raining in the last.

When it rained against Richmond, we piled on goals in the last and it was slippery in the third after rain at half time.

When it rained against Port, we kicked 7 goals in a quarter in hostile territory.

I don't think 'Melbourne are a poor wet weather footy team' stacks up to scrutiny. I've felt it was the case in the past too, but really it's down to whether we win ground ball or not, because we obviously intercept mark less.

I think our evolution, I won't say change, in game style, has meant less reliance on May, Lever or the third tall intercept marking, which means we can still win provided we win ground ball and neutralise the opposition in the air.

To me, groundball and intercept are the two best indicators of victory in modern footy.

Well said, BPA. Your boss should give you a pay rise!

[biggestred 5,125]

2 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Crowd numbers might be down on expectations because of the Matilda's QF being played just before our game. We know frrom the TV ratings for Monday's match that more people tuned in for it than watched the AFL Grand Final.

It might help to attract people to our game if the MCC announced that they would be showing the Matilda's game on the scoreboard before our game. (I don't know if they have the rights to be able to do that, though.)   

i actually messaged the MCC about this. its carltons home game so they control the screens pre game apparently. they did say that it would be on a lot of the tvs they control though.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Jimmy D is STMJ or Steven the man Jordan 

everyone is different and brings a different energy to the Demonland Pub so to speak.

Easy enough to avoid those you get nothing from.

The ignore option is great, but you’re still subjected to posts of those whom you’ve chosen to ignore when someone quotes them. I find pins in voodoo dolls much more effective. 

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

Should be a couple of good contests in the game.

Hibberd to Martin, won't fall for the usual bump and push in back capers i think.

Sparrow to Cripps with a touch of Kossie every now and then.

May, about time for a big hard game, no good looking angry, got to be angry.

[Deestar9 1,647]

15 hours ago, fr_ap said:

No - you don't get to do this to them and not us. Do you realise they're building the same narrative about us on their forum? It's standard fare for fans to fool themselves into confidence. 

"Collingwood had the flu, Brisbane [censored] the bed at their worst ground in the last 5 minutes, Adelaide had 5 out inc. Laird, Richmond pushed them all the way and the lowly Kangaroos completely outplayed them for a quarter. Petty is injured and Oliver will be rusty".

Not hard is it? Sound familiar or are you incapable of looking in the mirror? 

They have copied our game plan and are trying to copy our DNA. Contest & Defence. Statistically, they're the best in the comp at it since round 10. That's objective. 

Ignore them at your peril.

I feel good about how we've been tracking (or at least I did until Petty), but it's not inconceivable that they beat us at our own game on Saturday. I hope not as I have tickets, but if so there will be apparently be some very surprised folks on here. 

Nowhere in my reply did I disrespect Carlton & I’m not making myself feel better by “building a narrative against them”. They have done well …it’s a competition where you only have to be a couple of % off & you’ll lose to anyone but they can emulate our DNA all they like but they’re not us & I honestly believe we are the better team.  So I’m not in the business of building up Carlton & lauding their team …I save that for  my team. Petty is a huge loss & so is McKay. I think Curnow found that out  last week with 10 possessions & 1 goal. I’m hoping that we’ll realise just how much we have missed Clarry after Sat night ! 

 

 

[Young Angus 802]

I just want to see Smith back as sub because he was an amazing sub, Oliver for Harmes, Tomlinson for Smith and send down back, Grundy for Petty and just give it a shot again.  Plays forward, doesn't interrupt Gawn's game, is second ruck, how bad can it be he's a pretty decent footballer...just hope he can kick straight!

[binman 43,717]

2 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

I just want to see Smith back as sub because he was an amazing sub, Oliver for Harmes, Tomlinson for Smith and send down back, Grundy for Petty and just give it a shot again.  Plays forward, doesn't interrupt Gawn's game, is second ruck, how bad can it be he's a pretty decent footballer...just hope he can kick straight!

I reckon you could well be on the money.

Grundy is the fascinating one. Seems logical, but Goody was hedging in the post match presser. That said he did say let's take a breath.

Assume he will have a presser today, and no doubt the every first question will be about Grindy, so we'll soon know i reckon.

But if Smith is sub, as i expect he will be, Hibbo will come into the 22 you'd think.

With no Mckay they may decide not to go with a third tall defender. So perhaps no Tomo.

And i think Spargo comes back in, if not this week than in the next couple of weeks.

If he comes in this week it might be at JJ's expense.  

[Redleg 41,409]

21 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

I just want to see Smith back as sub because he was an amazing sub, Oliver for Harmes, Tomlinson for Smith and send down back, Grundy for Petty and just give it a shot again.  Plays forward, doesn't interrupt Gawn's game, is second ruck, how bad can it be he's a pretty decent footballer...just hope he can kick straight!

I don’t think there is a role for Tommo this week as I don’t think May can play on Charlie. I would play May on the resting ruck. Carlton have an otherwise small forward line and we need quick backs like Salem, McVee, Bowey and Hibberd. I would try Rivers on Charlie. Charlie is too quick for May and better at ground ball too.  Even Hibbo could be a better option.

[buck_nekkid 6,043]

Main thing to do is stop Saad.  He is a real creator off their half back.  Also will decrease the number of times the blues idiots all yell ‘woof’.

[Kent 2,913]

37 minutes ago, binman said:

I reckon you could well be on the money.

Grundy is the fascinating one. Seems logical, but Goody was hedging in the post match presser. That said he did say let's take a breath.

Assume he will have a presser today, and no doubt the every first question will be about Grindy, so we'll soon know i reckon.

But if Smith is sub, as i expect he will be, Hibbo will come into the 22 you'd think.

With no Mckay they may decide not to go with a third tall defender. So perhaps no Tomo.

And i think Spargo comes back in, if not this week than in the next couple of weeks.

If he comes in this week it might be at JJ's expense.  

Why would Spargo be considered. Underwhelming in my view