AFL Premiership Metrics

[Demonland 72,073]

 

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

Please forgive the misspelling of opposition! 😕

[—coach— 3,496]

Oooooooo Binman will love this post!

Very interesting indeed, thanks Wheelo!

[FearTheBeard 1,223]

This is rubbish though for us. Our attack in the last 6 weeks has been ranked 15th in the comp. The numbers are skewed by our first 9 weeks where we were putting up big scores against poor teams and kicking straight.

[binman 42,844]

5 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

This is rubbish though for us. Our attack in the last 6 weeks has been ranked 15th in the comp. The numbers are skewed by our first 9 weeks where we were putting up big scores against poor teams and kicking straight.

Hopefully they will also be skewed by the final 9 weeks of the season (inclusive of finals) - you know, like they were in 2021.

 

[The heart beats true 18,123]

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

Please forgive the misspelling of opposition! 😕

If you didn’t point it out I wouldn’t have even noticppped.

[FearTheBeard 1,223]

39 minutes ago, binman said:

Hopefully they will also be skewed by the final 9 weeks of the season (inclusive of finals) - you know, like they were in 2021.

 

stop clinging to 2021, this isnt that team.

[loges 6,767]

2 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

stop clinging to 2021, this isnt that team.

No this isn't that team, the 2021 premiership team wasn't that team either until late in the year.

[binman 42,844]

3 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

stop clinging to 2021, this isnt that team.

Ok - i'll cling to he record of the Cats in 2022. 

Is that ok?

[The heart beats true 18,123]

43 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

stop clinging to 2021, this isnt that team.

Binman? More like Clingman.

I’m here all week, try the veal.

[RedLegs23 932]

Full on Footy with Daniel Hoyne via SEN last night.

Very interesting listening as Hoyne looks at some stats from our boys over a 6 week period in 2021, compared to our last 6 weeks in 2023.

For all those suffering from MFCSS, this is for you @Demonland

Right up your alley @binman

From 18:00 - 23:00 mins in

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/NTETP9267425386.mp3?key=0de4b8c79f509be461f8cfa0ac81673b&request_event_id=5f900d90-2659-4984-8f3d-7e648e744177&source=3

Edited June 28, 2023 by RedLegs23

[DeeZone 9,809]

According to the above we are ranked No.1 slightly ahead of Pies nothing to do with 2021.!! So we are doing a lot of things right straighten up the kicking in the second half and who knows.

Edited June 28, 2023 by DeeZone

[Docs Demons 1,789]

I have this funny gut feeling we are programming to come good the last 6-8 games which is basically from now. No panic , not like us lot and away we go. I hope so.

[praha 11,240]

3 hours ago, Docs Demons said:

I have this funny gut feeling we are programming to come good the last 6-8 games which is basically from now. No panic , not like us lot and away we go. I hope so.

This comment is basically 2022 all over again.

It ain't happening. We don't just magically flick the switch and come good from this:

https://twitter.com/JTGiuliano/status/1673949252500979718?t=4TDTHc-wd7gf4NCB9FWV1Q&s=19

People need to realise the wheels are closer to falling off than tightening up.

[rpfc 28,374]

21 minutes ago, praha said:

This comment is basically 2022 all over again.

It ain't happening. We don't just magically flick the switch and come good from this:

https://twitter.com/JTGiuliano/status/1673949252500979718?t=4TDTHc-wd7gf4NCB9FWV1Q&s=19

People need to realise the wheels are closer to falling off than tightening up.

I don’t think that is true. 

Last year we were banged up, we couldn’t win many second halves. Even in games we won well in our streak last year.

This year in the last 6 weeks, we have nailed our press against good teams. We have won contested possession against good teams. Apart from last week, we were fine in last quarters.

The gap in forward connection is structurally fixable to some degree, also trust can increase and make an impact, and simple decision making can also improve that execution in final third.

I think the rest of the year will play out like this - we will get it together against some teams and smash them with our press funnelling deep entries and goals, win a ho hum 5 goal dominant game, and then we will have a couple of games where we will struggle to kick 10 goals, and we will see if our team defence can keep them to 8 goals…

Never out of a game but also rarely destroying teams out of having a chance.

We are a huge chance this year unless Port or Geelong click into Red Hot September. All teams have deficiencies. Ours are important, but because of team defence - it is coverable.

[monoccular 17,418]

11 hours ago, binman said:

Hopefully they will also be skewed by the final 9 weeks of the season (inclusive of finals) - you know, like they were in 2021.

 

binman - I hope that you may be able to make some sense of these statistics on your next podcast.  How are the key stats derived, and what do they actually mean?  Are we actually heading right on track?  

Oh, and is loading a factor that needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of these data? 🙂

Edited June 28, 2023 by monoccular

[praha 11,240]

10 hours ago, rpfc said:

I don’t think that is true. 

Last year we were banged up, we couldn’t win many second halves. Even in games we won well in our streak last year.

This year in the last 6 weeks, we have nailed our press against good teams. We have won contested possession against good teams. Apart from last week, we were fine in last quarters.

The gap in forward connection is structurally fixable to some degree, also trust can increase and make an impact, and simple decision making can also improve that execution in final third.

I think the rest of the year will play out like this - we will get it together against some teams and smash them with our press funnelling deep entries and goals, win a ho hum 5 goal dominant game, and then we will have a couple of games where we will struggle to kick 10 goals, and we will see if our team defence can keep them to 8 goals…

Never out of a game but also rarely destroying teams out of having a chance.

We are a huge chance this year unless Port or Geelong click into Red Hot September. All teams have deficiencies. Ours are important, but because of team defence - it is coverable.

I just think we're missing some pieces. There isn't a connection there and hasn't been since Rouns 11 2022. Fritsch is a good target but not a key forward. There's a reason why JVR is playing an extended role and not going back to the VFL. He is our long term forward. People calling for him to be rested for Brown or Schache are crazy. 

Finishing top 4 would be a huge win for this squad. 5th or 6th and a Semi Final appearance is imo a win also. End the season strong, land some good youth in the draft, maybe get a steal from WC as they dump players. 1-2 more years and we become one of the most experienced teams in the competition. Yes we can win the flag but the way we lose is a concern and yes even though we are *in* games until the end we never really look like winning those games. Port and Geelong, you could just see it going the way it did. We play one good quarter and expect to run away with it against good teams. Never looked like losing against Collingwood and yet could easily have lost if the Pies get the last clearance. Never a chance against Brisbane. Freo looked a step above.

Can't understate our defensive structure but we have been saved by it for 12 months now. With our forward inefficiencies if we didn't have a half decent backline we'd be getting belted by 10 goals every game because we can't score.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,815]

Winning a final this year, preferably at the G in front of the faithful for the first time since 2018, will be a success in my book. Finals are awfully hard to win as we experienced last year, and at this point in time we don't have the consistency of Port and Collingwood to be considered a genuine flag chance - an outside chance at best. 

Given we haven't won a final in consecutive years since 1990-1991, I'll take any finals win we can get.

[titan_uranus 24,990]

13 hours ago, praha said:

This comment is basically 2022 all over again.

It ain't happening. We don't just magically flick the switch and come good from this:

https://twitter.com/JTGiuliano/status/1673949252500979718?t=4TDTHc-wd7gf4NCB9FWV1Q&s=19

People need to realise the wheels are closer to falling off than tightening up.

1 hour ago, praha said:

I just think we're missing some pieces. There isn't a connection there and hasn't been since Rouns 11 2022. Fritsch is a good target but not a key forward. There's a reason why JVR is playing an extended role and not going back to the VFL. He is our long term forward. People calling for him to be rested for Brown or Schache are crazy. 

Finishing top 4 would be a huge win for this squad. 5th or 6th and a Semi Final appearance is imo a win also. End the season strong, land some good youth in the draft, maybe get a steal from WC as they dump players. 1-2 more years and we become one of the most experienced teams in the competition. Yes we can win the flag but the way we lose is a concern and yes even though we are *in* games until the end we never really look like winning those games. Port and Geelong, you could just see it going the way it did. We play one good quarter and expect to run away with it against good teams. Never looked like losing against Collingwood and yet could easily have lost if the Pies get the last clearance. Never a chance against Brisbane. Freo looked a step above.

Can't understate our defensive structure but we have been saved by it for 12 months now. With our forward inefficiencies if we didn't have a half decent backline we'd be getting belted by 10 goals every game because we can't score.

Feels like you’ve gone full doom spiral @praha.

I’d be really keen to know what our inside 50 conversion looked like in 2021. It’s never been our strong suit. 

I can’t accept that we never looked like beating Port or Geelong. Geelong FFS we were leading for most of the game! Port we absolutely looked like winning at 3QT and I’ll continue to argue we were quite good in that game despite it being in the wet and on the road. And Fremantle was a game we should have won had we simply kicked straight. 

A lot of what we are doing on game day is what we need to do to win the flag. It isn’t enough right now because we keep missing easy shots on goal and wasting good scoring chains with bad kicks inside 50. I agree that it isn’t as simple as flicking a switch but I can’t accept we’re closer to falling apart than putting it all together. 

[rpfc 28,374]

If we don’t make a prelim - it’s a failed year. That remains until May/Gawn retire for any season we have few injuries to stars.

These expectations are the price of having this galaxy of stars.

[praha 11,240]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Feels like you’ve gone full doom spiral @praha.

 

you new here? 😜 

[D4Life 2,469]

It’s still June - I haven’t seen a AFL premiership flag awarded until September and on the odd occasion October!

Our injury list is small, assuming Oliver’s hamstring comes good and Hibbo recovers, we can hopefully hit August and September being very close to having a best 23 available.

We improve the forward line 10-20%, kick straight for goal and we are in this years flag hunt up to our eyeballs!

Pies are a very good team, but high risk might not stack up under PF/GF pressure!

Port on fire at moment, but how will their young guns in Butters, Rozee and Horn Francis be travelling in September and they don’t get home ground umpiring favouritism at the MCG on GF day if they make it that far!

Brisbane game style and having to play any finals in Victoria, sees them falling short.

Coming from position 5-8 is unlikely, no matter who it is!

As long as we stay relatively injury free and make top 4 we are right in the hunt for the flag, that will be won in September!!!

[binman 42,844]

47 minutes ago, rpfc said:

If we don’t make a prelim - it’s a failed year. 

100% agree (assuming we don't get hit with injuries to multiple key best say top 10 players).

In fact, i think an argument could be made, that not making the GF would be a fail (with the same caveat).

[Roost it far 8,243]

4 hours ago, praha said:

I just think we're missing some pieces. There isn't a connection there and hasn't been since Rouns 11 2022. Fritsch is a good target but not a key forward. There's a reason why JVR is playing an extended role and not going back to the VFL. He is our long term forward. People calling for him to be rested for Brown or Schache are crazy. 

Finishing top 4 would be a huge win for this squad. 5th or 6th and a Semi Final appearance is imo a win also. End the season strong, land some good youth in the draft, maybe get a steal from WC as they dump players. 1-2 more years and we become one of the most experienced teams in the competition. Yes we can win the flag but the way we lose is a concern and yes even though we are *in* games until the end we never really look like winning those games. Port and Geelong, you could just see it going the way it did. We play one good quarter and expect to run away with it against good teams. Never looked like losing against Collingwood and yet could easily have lost if the Pies get the last clearance. Never a chance against Brisbane. Freo looked a step above.

Can't understate our defensive structure but we have been saved by it for 12 months now. With our forward inefficiencies if we didn't have a half decent backline we'd be getting belted by 10 goals every game because we can't score.

Freo looked a step above? Did you even watch the game. We gifted that game to them through poor conversion. Please!

[rpfc 28,374]

53 minutes ago, binman said:

100% agree (assuming we don't get hit with injuries to multiple key best say top 10 players).

In fact, i think an argument could be made, that not making the GF would be a fail (with the same caveat).

Funny things happen down the pointy end amongst the best teams - ask the Tigers in 2018.

That I can deal with, straight sets against teams that are worse than us not so much.