Contenders & Pretenders

[Roost it far 8,574]

8 hours ago, chookrat said:

I cannot see us losing another game this season. Will beat Pies on Monday in a game for the ages and not look back.

I’m with you, I actually think the Sydney game is the toughest. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

9 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

If it's the considered consensus that top four gets you a shot at the flag then I think we can draw a line through anyone that currently has a six & six record, or worse. Yes, that includes Geelong as they now need to win ten of eleven to get to sixteen wins. 

I'm totally with you Rab. That leaves 8 clubs in the mix at this stage for the Top 4 (including Fremantle). But I would say that's not what's going to be driving different clubs' efforts. It will be all about making finals. I actually want Gold Coast & Geelong (apart from Round 15) to get on a roll to cause some damage to fellow Top 4 teams. 

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,433]

6 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I'm totally with you Rab. That leaves 8 clubs in the mix at this stage for the Top 4 (including Fremantle). But I would say that's not what's going to be driving different clubs' efforts. It will be all about making finals. I actually want Gold Coast & Geelong (apart from Round 15) to get on a roll to cause some damage to fellow Top 4 teams. 

I still see St Kilda & Essendon falling away, irrespective of how easy or hard their remaining fixture is, leaving six sides vying for those four places. I can only see the current top four creating a bigger gap though. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

28 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

it's why i'm taking nothing for granted

born in 79, started following footy in the mid-80s, and if we make finals this year it'll be only the second time in my lifetime we've made post-season in three consecutive years since 87-91 under northey

last year was the first time since 59-60 we've finished top two in consecutive seasons

loving the journey - just want us to frank it with some glorious premierships

I'm envious. I was born in 1960, too young to remember the years up to '64. Started actively following the team around 1969, so 18 years of misery pretty much including the horrible end to 1976. 4 wooden spoons in 13 years (1969-1981). 2021 was totally surreal because by then I'd assumed we'd never win a premiership (I'm sure doggies supporters felt the same in 2016). It does give you a bit of perspective which is why I get so annoyed with the negativity sometimes expressed by demonlanders. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

5 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

I still see St Kilda & Essendon falling away, irrespective of how easy or hard their remaining fixture is, leaving six sides vying for those four places. I can only see the current top four creating a bigger gap though. 

i'm hoping @WheeloRatings is on the money:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

He's saying 75% chance of Melbourne staying in Top 4 and a 2 game gap to Western Bulldogs so we can afford to lose an extra game. And that we're Premiership favourites 😀.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

7 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

i'm hoping @WheeloRatings is on the money:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

He's saying 75% chance of Melbourne staying in Top 4 and a 2 game gap to Western Bulldogs so we can afford to lose an extra game. And that we're Premiership favourites 😀.

The aggregate of several Squiggle models is very similar, at least in terms of the gap between Melbourne (4th) and Western Bulldogs (5th).

https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

[Redlagged 813]

21 hours ago, rufus said:

I reckon it will definitely come down to 3 three you've mentioned. The 4th team in a preliminary finally is going to be significantly out of their weight division (unless Geelong perks up).

When our intensity and pressure are up we can hang with those top sides, but we have too many lulls and unfortunately we just don't seem to have the ability to execute offensively when under pressure...which hurts in keeping the scoreboard ticking over against good sides.

Port Adelaide? Nup. Two, maybe three, chances - Collingwood, then Melbourne, then Brisbane. Injuries (and the ability to play with pain) the decider.

[Ollie fan 3,468]

9 hours ago, chookrat said:

I cannot see us losing another game this season. Will beat Pies on Monday in a game for the ages and not look back.

I love this post. Honestly, on this website you wonder whether people actually barrack for the club and want us to win. This is the sort of positivity we should have.

[praha 11,240]

Maybe I'm crazy but we are far and away premiership favourites imv.

We have A-grades on every line.

Not a single player in our Best 22 wouldn't get a game at another top 4 team.

At our best we beat anyone.

Looking forward to people taking us seriously when we bury the Pies on Monday.

[Roost it far 8,574]

You listen to the scribes fawn over us next week. here we come baby and it's going to be awesome.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

3 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Why only these 5 Clubs? Essendon & Western Bulldogs are above Geelong & Fremantle. And in addition to Western Bulldogs we have beaten 7 other teams. On the positive side the losses against Brisbane & Port were interstate, and we are yet to play Brisbane at the MCG. We don't play Fremantle & Port again. So we play 3 games against the sides you are concerned with. The other 8 are of equal concern to me. Every game is worth 4 points. 

Yes the Dogs should be in the conversation but not Essendon. As good as Adelaide has been I think this year is a stepping stone for them. Come the business end there will only be a handful of realistic challengers.

[layzie 33,989]

13 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Yes the Dogs should be in the conversation but not Essendon. As good as Adelaide has been I think this year is a stepping stone for them. Come the business end there will only be a handful of realistic challengers.

I thought Essendon's win actually lost them brownie points in their quest for finals. North lost Simpkin and Greenwood in that first half and the Dons still had to work for their win, yes they dominated territory but all the other KPIs aside from I50s were pretty even in the end. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by layzie

[titan_uranus 25,042]

All members of the current top 4 (Collingwood, Port, Brisbane, us) have played each other except Melbourne v Collingwood which is this week.

It's a big if, but if we win, the top 4 record against each other will be:

1. Port - 2-1
2. Brisbane - 2-1
3. Collingwood - 1-2
4. Melbourne - 1-2

Obviously if we lose, they'll all be 2-1 and we'll be 0-3. But a win will show that we're not that far off, particularly given that our loss to Port was by a kick in the rain.

[old55 23,687]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

All members of the current top 4 (Collingwood, Port, Brisbane, us) have played each other except Melbourne v Collingwood which is this week.

It's a big if, but if we win, the top 4 record against each other will be:

1. Port - 2-1
2. Brisbane - 2-1
3. Collingwood - 1-2
4. Melbourne - 1-2

Obviously if we lose, they'll all be 2-1 and we'll be 0-3. But a win will show that we're not that far off, particularly given that our loss to Port was by a kick in the rain.

I like your posting TU, but I think we need to recognise the Port loss for what it was - they absolutely belted us and it was amazing we were so close at the end.  We should have won against Freo but we were fortunate to win against Richmond and Gold Coast.  Our W-L record is pretty spot on.

[titan_uranus 25,042]

3 hours ago, old55 said:

I like your posting TU, but I think we need to recognise the Port loss for what it was - they absolutely belted us and it was amazing we were so close at the end.  We should have won against Freo but we were fortunate to win against Richmond and Gold Coast.  Our W-L record is pretty spot on.

Don't agree at all re: Port.

Not sure I agree with any of the rest either, except the W-L record being spot on, which I didn't disagree with from the start.

[old55 23,687]

54 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Don't agree at all re: Port.

Not sure I agree with any of the rest either, except the W-L record being spot on, which I didn't disagree with from the start.

I'm pretty sure you'll agree that we should have won by more against Carlton but for our inability to convert:

MFC 15 marks in i50, 28 shots from 59 i50s vs Carlton 9 marks in i50, 16 shots from 39 i50s - that's a killing

Port 17 marks in i50, 32 shots from 61 i50s vs MFC 12 marks in i50, 23 shots from 48 i50s - that's convincingly better, we were only in it because of Port's inability to convert.

[Ollie fan 3,468]

The way I see the Port game is that we played one quarter which showed just how good we can be. If we played just two quarters like that in a game we would beat any team.

[Chook 15,022]

19 minutes ago, Ollie fan said:

The way I see the Port game is that we played one quarter which showed just how good we can be. If we played just two quarters like that in a game we would beat any team.

The way I saw it is teams with good disposal and/or leg speed kill us and the only time we can fight back is when it's monsoon season.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Chook

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

My mates and I talking last night and they both agreed Collingwood and Port are the clear grand finalists at the moment, my reply….

I don’t see port Port as a clear favourite with the pies.
Rd 1 smashed lions, lions clearly off their game
Rd 2 they got smashed by the pies
Rd 3 5 goal loss to the crows
Rd 4 2 points over the swans
Rd 5 14 over dogs, some bad umpiring in that game, sounds funny saying that against the dogs
Rd 6 pump eagles big deal
Rd 7 beat saints by 7
Rd 8 beat bombers by 5 
Rd 9 pump north big deal
Rd 10 beat Dees by 4, Dees were totally outplayed. No denying it, play 1 good qtr and nearly beat them.
Rd 11 beat tigers by 10 after Dimma stood down
Rd 12 pump hawks big deal

You can always argue you can only beat who your playing, and that’s a fair call. But after their rd 1 romp of the lions and back to back losses. They’ve beaten 
Swans 2 
Dogs 14
Saints 7
Bombers 5
Dees 4 
Tigers 10 team with no coach 
By a total of 42 points.

A wins a win but not clear 2nd best team for me. A lot of those games could quite easily go each way. Good teams find ways to win but luck eventually runs out. 
After rd 1 and the eagles, north and hawks they haven’t put anyone away which is a concern. Finals is a different game.
I would also add they have Collingwood feel about them in the way they play but also continuing to win by small margins. Saints are currently 5th and lost to the hawks 2 weeks ago, that’s the kind of season it is. If we can win on Monday the whole narrative is turned upside down. If we can’t beat the pies without Howe, DeGoey and Sidebottom I will be extremely [censored] off.

[Watson11 2,241]

Here’s my take on all the contenders:

1. Collingwood.  Brisbane and now us have clearly shown how to dismantle them.  Collingwood need to develop a plan B, but I don’t think they have the list to execute a plan B. 

2. Port. Port have the worst one on one defending record in the afl.  Like the dogs in 2021 they are vulnerable to bang-bang-bang. Hard to win 3 finals with a weakness like that.

3. Brisbane.  Brisbane are poor runners.  It’s why they struggle on the G. Even their one win last year at the G (against us) was playing a team of cripples who were running on the spot after half time.  They have to pray for rain.

4. Melbourne.  Our defending is back. Our forward line is the knock on us. 

If the El Niño prediction for a warmer dryer winter starting in July is correct, then I think Port and Brisbane are toast.   Geelong/Dogs/Adelaide can cause some damage and get to a prelim as they have the tools to send one of port or brisbane out in straight sets.

It really is wide open for us.  We just need to hit September fit. I suspect our forward line connection issue will completely disappear with dryer Sep weather.

[binman 43,710]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Here’s my take on all the contenders:

1. Collingwood.  Brisbane and now us have clearly shown how to dismantle them.  Collingwood need to develop a plan B, but I don’t think they have the list to execute a plan B. 

2. Port. Port have the worst one on one defending record in the afl.  Like the dogs in 2021 they are vulnerable to bang-bang-bang. Hard to win 3 finals with a weakness like that.

3. Brisbane.  Brisbane are poor runners.  It’s why they struggle on the G. Even their one win last year at the G (against us) was playing a team of cripples who were running on the spot after half time.  They have to pray for rain.

4. Melbourne.  Our defending is back. Our forward line is the knock on us. 

If the El Niño prediction for a warmer dryer winter starting in July is correct, then I think Port and Brisbane are toast.   Geelong/Dogs/Adelaide can cause some damage and get to a prelim as they have the tools to send one of port or brisbane out in straight sets.

It really is wide open for us.  We just need to hit September fit. I suspect our forward line connection issue will completely disappear with dryer Sep weather.

Some excellent points there watson. 

The only thing i'd query is our forward line being a knock. What's that view based on?

I worry about BB and Tmac not being fir and firing, and the third tall has been a key part of Goodys preferred forward line model, so i can see it is an issue from that perspective.

But they have clearly had an emphasis on spreading the goal kickers and the bottom line is we remain the number one scoring side and still number one for accuracy from set shots, despite falling away in that are in the last 3 weeks (fatigue related is my take).

From where i sit the media so often frame particular talking points, get fixated on it, repeat it a million times and it becomes some sort of accepted truth - even when the data does not support, or even contradicts, the talking point.

One of the best examples this season is our supposed scoring and 'connection' issues. Both were issues last year and it is if the media can't let it go. And so, regularly i hear paid analysts talk about our forward issues as if there is no debate that it is an issue.

Even yesterday that was a theme in much of the post-match commentary. Jordon Lewis, for example, said on 360 something like 'now clearly scoring is an issue for the dees but their defensive structures etc etc."

It is so weird because we had 26 scoring shots!

If you ignored the scoreboard and just went on scoring shots, that was a solid performance from our forward line and the connection was really good.

By way of comparison, two of our best wins this season were against the Dogs in round one and the tigers on Anzac eve. Against the dogs we had 30 scoring shots.

A better example is the tiger's game as we had 21 scoring shots that night, five less than we did against the Pies. Yet because we kicked accurately (15.6), no one mentioned any scoring, forward or connection issues.

Another interesting example is our highest scoring game of the year when we hammered the Swans in round 3 by 50 points, scoring 134 points.

But we only had three more scoring shots that game than we did against the Pies. 

So, with 26 scoring shots, connection is clearly not an issue. Or scoring for that matter. We just missed too many set shots. 

It's also worth noting we had 22 scoring shots on a wet and wild night against Port, 22 against Freo and 21 against the blues.

Yes, those numbers are down on our average number scoring shots (just), but that reflects the competition wide drop off in scoring shots that happens in this period every year. 

On set shot accuracy, goody said on 360 we were deadly accurate until the last 3 weeks, but he is super confident it will come good again because of how hard they have worked on it, noting it is 'the least' of our problems. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by binman

[Watson11 2,241]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

Some good points there watson. 

The only thing i'd query is our forward line being a knock. What's that view based on?

I worry about BB and Tmac not being fir and firing, and the third tall has been a key part of Goodys preferred forward line model, so i can see it is an issue from that perspective.

But they have clearly had an emphasis on spreading the goal kickers and the bottom line is we remain the number one scoring side and still number one for accuracy from set shots, despite falling away in that are in the last 3 weeks (fatigue related is my take).

From where i sit the media so often frame particular talking points, get fixated on it, repeat it a million times and it becomes some sort of accepted truth - even when the data does not support, or even contradicts, the talking point.

One of the best examples this season is our supposed scoring and 'connection' issues. Both were issues last year and it is if the media can't let it go. And so regularly i hear paid analysts talk about our forward issues as if there is no debate that it is poor.

Even yesterday that was a theme in much of the post-match commentary. Jordon Lewis, for example, said on 360 said something like 'now clearly scoring is an issue for the dees but their defensive structures etc etc."

It is so weird because we had 26 scoring shots!

If you ignored the scoreboard and just went on scoring shots, that was solid performance from our forward line and the connection was really good.

By way of comparisons two of our best wins this season were against the Dogs in round one and the tigers on Anzac eve. Against the dogs we had 30 scoring shots.

A better example is the tiger's game as we had 21 scoring shots that night, five less than we did against the Pies. Yet because we kicked accurately (15.6), no one mentioned any scoring, forward or connection issues.

Another interesting example is our highest scoring game of the year when we hammered the Swans in round 3 by 50 points, scoring 134 points.

But we only had three more scoring shots that game than we did against the Pies. 

So, with 26 scoring shots, connection is clearly not an issue. Or scoring for that matter. We just missed too many set shots. 

It's worth also noting we had 22 scoring shot on wet and wild night against Port, 22 against Freo and 21 against the blues.

Yes, those numbers are down on our average number scoring shots (jus), but that reflects the competition wide drop off in scoring shots that happens in this period every year. 

On set shot accuracy, goody said on 360 we were deadly accurate until the last 3 weeks (fatigue related is my take) but he is super confident it will come good again because of how hard they have worked on it, noting it is 'the least' of our problems. 

I’m not really worried about our forward line.  If we get forward half turnover we can really have anyone there.  But the media (and half of demonland) go on about it as nauseum.  And if we kicked straight the last 3 weeks no one would raise it as an issue. But the reason it’s been raised is our low goals per inside 50 the last 3 weeks (13%, 13%, 17%).  I expect us to get back to our season average later in the season (24%).

[Bitter but optimistic 22,246]

I realise it's only June and there is a lot of footy still to be played but after yesterday's game, I'm tipping a Dees V Filth Grand Final.

For mine Brisbane's loss to a developing Hawks team has cost them all credibility as  a Premiership team. Port will have a say of course but both ourselves and the Filth have them covered.

Forget the rest.

[Altona-demon 321]

17 minutes ago, binman said:

Even yesterday that was a theme in much of the post-match commentary. Jordon Lewis, for example, said on 360 said something like 'now clearly scoring is an issue for the dees but their defensive structures etc etc."

It is so weird because we had 26 scoring shots!

 

I think Jordy was more making an insight (which I tend to agree with) that the quality of entries into forward 50 suffers because of the lack of connection.  Numerous examples of this last night - Fritsch and JVR on the same ball springs to mind, Kossie flying rather than crumbing.  As Goody said on AFL 360, this is a young forward line with some new entrants - connection and managing space and leads is going to take time.  I agree with you that the quantity is not an issue. 

[Altona-demon 321]

13 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I’m not really worried about our forward line.  If we get forward half turnover we can really have anyone there.  But the media (and half of demonland) go on about it as nauseum.  And if we kicked straight the last 3 weeks no one would raise it as an issue. But the reason it’s been raised is our low goals per inside 50 the last 3 weeks (13%, 13%, 17%).  I expect us to get back to our season average later in the season (24%).

Let's not gloss over the fact however that the forwards clearly failed the mental test on numerous shots in this game.  Fritsch, Kossie, and Smith - all failed to convert under significant pressure.  Great practice for what will come in September.