The Run Home

[old55 23,309]

6 hours ago, Demonsone said:

Will the close losses in particular to Freo & Gws deny us a top 2 finish and host a qualifying final? We now must win both & hope Port & Lions drop 1 game each. Rather finish 4th if we can’t finish 2nd to play Collingwood @ the G 

Will the close wins against Gold Coast and Brisbane assure us of a top 4 finish?

[ElDiablo14 4,990]

1 hour ago, 58er said:

There are ONLY 8 Interstate teams unless you are counting Cats or Tassie already. 

West Coast and Freo can't make it so 4 is the possible viewing for the top 8 as Port and Lions are already in the Top 4. And safe.

How does this affect your comment now? 
 

 

I was trying to find a correlation for the lack of success for teams placed 4th.

I thought maybe playing as a truly away team had a big impact on their performances(i.e. Melbourne wouldn't truly be the away team playing against the Pies at the G').

However, as others have pointed out, it most likely is because 4th will lose against 1st in most instances, in which case they have to face 5th. 4th v 5th in a semifinal is as tight a match as you can have.

[beelzebub 23,311]

10 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

I was trying to find a correlation for the lack of success for teams placed 4th.

I thought maybe playing as a truly away team had a big impact on their performances(i.e. Melbourne wouldn't truly be the away team playing against the Pies at the G').

However, as others have pointed out, it most likely is because 4th will lose against 1st in most instances, in which case they have to face 5th. 4th v 5th in a semifinal is as tight a match as you can have.

There is none...and the reality is the stats mean nothing going forward. What you have is a pictorial account for what has transpired. Not what will/might.

Is exactly the same as 49 coin tosses ..all heads. Whats the likelihood ( outcome) of the next toss ? 

 

[binman 42,468]

52 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

There is none...and the reality is the stats mean nothing going forward. What you have is a pictorial account for what has transpired. Not what will/might.

Is exactly the same as 49 coin tosses ..all heads. Whats the likelihood ( outcome) of the next toss ? 

 

It is literally not like that at all.

The probability of every coin toss coming up heads or tails is 50 50 because each coin toss is a completely independent event with NO other variables, factors  or historical precedents that need to be factored in.

El Diablo is 100% right to look for correlations and factors that might help explain the statistical anomaly of the team finishing 4th after a full season of home and away football (ie the 4th best team in the comp) not having won grand final.

It could just be statistical anomaly, though the sample size would suggest that is unlikely.

There any number of potential variable's and correlations that might be a factor to help explain this seemingly anomalous stat.

And for what it's worth having to play interstate week one is the one that came to my mind too.

And old55's point about  having to play the 5tht best team (who perhaps, like the blues might be on a late season roll and be in top form) the week after losing week one makes a lot of sense. 

But i agree, it shouldn't be overplayed.

Coming into the 2021 GF only a very small number of teams that finished top of the ladder went on to win the flag.

An even more anomalous stat i would have thought (ie the finishing top is nominally the best team in the comp).

As we know we finished top in 2021 - and won the flag.

An the Cats finished top in 2022 - and won the flag.

Not so anomalous now. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by binman

[Adam The God 30,026]

The idea that we somehow manufacture finishing 4th if we're leading in a game in Round 24 is lalaland thinking. 

Anywhere, any time is and will clearly be our philosophy.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,121]

4 hours ago, old55 said:

Will the close wins against Gold Coast and Brisbane assure us of a top 4 finish?

Well well, look at Mr Pollyanna over here 😜

[Roost it far 8,104]

4 hours ago, beelzebub said:

There is none...and the reality is the stats mean nothing going forward. What you have is a pictorial account for what has transpired. Not what will/might.

Is exactly the same as 49 coin tosses ..all heads. Whats the likelihood ( outcome) of the next toss ? 

 

I think it just comes down to the fact that the first placed team is usually somewhat better than the fourth placed team. Losing a QF makes winning the flag far more difficult and I’d say fourth lose it more often than not.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

9 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

I was trying to find a correlation for the lack of success for teams placed 4th.

I thought maybe playing as a truly away team had a big impact on their performances(i.e. Melbourne wouldn't truly be the away team playing against the Pies at the G').

However, as others have pointed out, it most likely is because 4th will lose against 1st in most instances, in which case they have to face 5th. 4th v 5th in a semifinal is as tight a match as you can have.

I actually think you're looking for causation, not correlation 😀.

8 hours ago, beelzebub said:

There is none...and the reality is the stats mean nothing going forward. What you have is a pictorial account for what has transpired. Not what will/might.

Is exactly the same as 49 coin tosses ..all heads. Whats the likelihood ( outcome) of the next toss ? 

 

As has been pointed out, we're looking for factors that explain the lack of success for teams finishing 4th. Clearly each game is not 50/50 so you can safely dismiss that. For what it's worth, if each game in the finals was 50/50 the odds for each team being Premiers are 1-4 18.75%, 5-8 6.25%. Now these aren't the actual odds due to the effects of home ground advantage, the general tendency for higher-positioned teams to be better-performed, the fatigue factor for teams having to win from 5th-8th etc. etc.

7 hours ago, binman said:

Coming into the 2021 GF only a very small number of teams that finished top of the ladder went on to win the flag.

An even more anomalous stat i would have thought (ie the finishing top is nominally the best team in the comp).

As we know we finished top in 2021 - and won the flag.

An the Cats finished top in 2022 - and won the flag.

Not so anomalous now. 

Not true. In fact the split of Premierships prior to 2021 (since the current system came into being) was 1st 6, 2nd 7, 3rd 7, 7th 1, so now the split is 8 7 7 1. Now assuming each game was 50/50 (which it isn't) the split should be 1-4 23 x 18.75% = 4.3125, 5-8 23 x 6.25% = 1.43125. Overall teams 1-4 have exceeded that split, and teams 5-8 the opposite, which is what you'd expect due to factors detailed above.

But the question remains, why is it so hard to win from 4th (0 of 23), or, the related question, why have only 8 of 23 Premiers come from the 1 vs 4 Qualifying Final while 14 of 23 have come from the 2 vs 3  QF? I've posted on this before but I theorise it's because 1 vs 4 get's a harder series of matches (particularly 4). 4 vs 5 in a Semi is the obvious tough game, not so much because 4 & 5 are evenly-matched but because 4 has (in general) come off a hard (losing) match vs 1, with 5 coming off a considerably easier (winning) match vs 8. But even the winner of 1 vs 4 has a harder Prelim against 3 (usually) or 2, whereas the winner of 2 vs 3 has an easier Prelim against 4 (usually). Also the loser of a 2 vs 3 QF gets a comparitively easy SF against 6th or 7th. 

But looking at this year specifically, if it's 1 (Collingwood) vs 4 (Melbourne) it's a bit different because the teams are evenly-matched and there's no home ground advantage. Also the winner of that match will have a Prelim where they have significant home ground advantage, and will also have home ground advantage in the Grand Final. This could be the year that the 4th team is the Premiers if Melbourne finish 4th. Conversely I'd say if Brisbane or Port Adelaide finish 4th they have virtually no chance of being Premiers.  

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

9 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

I was trying to find a correlation for the lack of success for teams placed 4th.

I thought maybe playing as a truly away team had a big impact on their performances(i.e. Melbourne wouldn't truly be the away team playing against the Pies at the G').

However, as others have pointed out, it most likely is because 4th will lose against 1st in most instances, in which case they have to face 5th. 4th v 5th in a semifinal is as tight a match as you can have.

Why is 4th vs 5th any tighter than 2nd vs 3rd or 6th vs 7th? Admittedly the latter 2 combinations couldn't happen in a Semi so I would agree 4th vs 5th is likely tighter than 2nd vs 6th.

[DEE fence 5,000]

Very frustrated very very frustrated, so many what ifs, and now I'm cheering for Collingwood of all things. Do you reckon Collingwood would rather meet us in a QF a GF or a Prelim? Or no difference? Personally I'm happy with the win anywhere mentality and would trade final four ladder position for a settled forward line.

[beelzebub 23,311]

21 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I actually think you're looking for causation, not correlation 😀.

As has been pointed out, we're looking for factors that explain the lack of success for teams finishing 4th. Clearly each game is not 50/50 so you can safely dismiss that. For what it's worth, if each game in the finals was 50/50 the odds for each team being Premiers are 1-4 18.75%, 5-8 6.25%. Now these aren't the actual odds due to the effects of home ground advantage, the general tendency for higher-positioned teams to be better-performed, the fatigue factor for teams having to win from 5th-8th etc. etc.

Not true. In fact the split of Premierships prior to 2021 (since the current system came into being) was 1st 6, 2nd 7, 3rd 7, 7th 1, so now the split is 8 7 7 1. Now assuming each game was 50/50 (which it isn't) the split should be 1-4 23 x 18.75% = 4.3125, 5-8 23 x 6.25% = 1.43125. Overall teams 1-4 have exceeded that split, and teams 5-8 the opposite, which is what you'd expect due to factors detailed above.

But the question remains, why is it so hard to win from 4th (0 of 23), or, the related question, why have only 8 of 23 Premiers come from the 1 vs 4 Qualifying Final while 14 of 23 have come from the 2 vs 3  QF? I've posted on this before but I theorise it's because 1 vs 4 get's a harder series of matches (particularly 4). 4 vs 5 in a Semi is the obvious tough game, not so much because 4 & 5 are evenly-matched but because 4 has (in general) come off a hard (losing) match vs 1, with 5 coming off a considerably easier (winning) match vs 8. But even the winner of 1 vs 4 has a harder Prelim against 3 (usually) or 2, whereas the winner of 2 vs 3 has an easier Prelim against 4 (usually). Also the loser of a 2 vs 3 QF gets a comparitively easy SF against 6th or 7th. 

But looking at this year specifically, if it's 1 (Collingwood) vs 4 (Melbourne) it's a bit different because the teams are evenly-matched and there's no home ground advantage. Also the winner of that match will have a Prelim where they have significant home ground advantage, and will also have home ground advantage in the Grand Final. This could be the year that the 4th team is the Premiers if Melbourne finish 4th. Conversely I'd say if Brisbane or Port Adelaide finish 4th they have virtually no chance of being Premiers.  

Very interesting...in a way... but to be honest it makes not an iota of difference.  I mean no disrespect.  I simply observe every meeting ( game ) has its own dynamics and thats supposed upon any number of ifs buts maybes . Its about as predictable as the bounce of our belived ball. It ought to do A...but the minute you bank that..it wont.

The very best of odds brokers have very elaborate algorithms to predict outcomes. Invariably across a round they come out ok, but that in and of itself doesn't address the aberrations. Its just that they're covered.

No one's won from fourth does not prevent anyone from doing so as immediately someone does the algorithms,  narratives and predictions accommodate.

I still stand by my coin analogy as its applicable.  At any contest any number of variables comes into play. They can not be pre-ordained . The outcome is dependent upon 36 individuals at any given time... the influence of 6 others...the weather...and not forgetting...the ball.

How does statistical analysis integrate and interpret any of that. A fair question might be..does it have to ?. Does not overviews smooth over irregularities?  In a perfect environment the normal allowances prevail.  Is a game of footy so perfect, so precise, so normal that standard deviations can exist or be applied ? I don't  know, tbh.

I look at statistics..and associated predictions in the same light i do stock market charts..  they are actually very similar..especially in terms of how derived. Both work off history... but history is neither finite or constrained.  Anything can happen because so many variables are volatile.  Ive asked chartists to lay money down on their prescience...strangely none do . They just love their charts...their lines.. their hypothesis... and when something untoward,  unusual happens..their charts change..their narrative changes.. 

There's a classic line often... " no one's done that before ".    The strangeness of that to me is not that ut happened...but that supposedly it couldn't.  

The minute it does...all mathematics agrees. Why...because nothing is finite.

This year 4th can win. Why ? Well why not.

Knock yourselves out folks..do the table predictor...do the finals scenarios. Its entirely possible.  Actually not only possible...it may be the best place to finish....THIS year...for THESE teams.

 

[titan_uranus 24,963]

So, as it stands with the Brisbane win over Collingwood:

1. Collingwood still seal 1st with a win over Essendon next week
2. If Collingwood loses to Essendon, a Brisbane win over St Kilda likely (subject to percentage - they're currently even on 123.2%) sees them finish 1st
3. We can only finish 2nd now if Brisbane loses to St Kilda
4. We will likely finish 3rd if we go 2-0 and Port goes 1-1, or If we go 1-1 and Port goes 0-2, or if we go 0-2 and Carlton loses at least once
5. Given the Round 24 fixture, we will know at the time the ball is bounced whether we can finish 3rd or not (if Port win this week and have already won next week, we will know we can't move up). We will also know whether Brisbane has passed Collingwood. If we lose to Hawthorn and Carlton beats Gold Coast however, we will not know if we are locked for top 4 because Carlton plays after us.

Edited August 18, 2023 by titan_uranus

[Graeme Yeats' Mullet 6,772]

Beat Hawthorn 

Go into Sydney game with clear view on what result earns an MCG double chance vs Cwood

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Could see Brisbane finishing 1st, Pies are in trouble

[beelzebub 23,311]

13 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Could see Brisbane finishing 1st, Pies are in trouble

Wobble Wobble........Wobble  Wobble 

[Demonsone 2,029]

On 8/17/2023 at 2:44 AM, old55 said:

Will the close wins against Gold Coast and Brisbane assure us of a top 4 finish?

I think 2nd spot is gone… yes those close loses have cost us & yes the close wins also help but it’s the close loses that hurts, our ever unstable fwd line continues to hurt us through injury &  form, the 2 rucks are not working 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Demonsone

[Great Northern Summer 708]

The traditionalists here will be disappointed that we will most likely have to wear our clash royal blue jumper throughout almost all finals we play (aside from the Semi Final if we lose the Qualifying Final, and the Preliminary Final if we win the Qualifying Final) unless some major finals upsets occur (i.e. teams outside the Top 4 progressing through). Yep, we’d be wearing it in the Grand Final without question too if we got that far. 

[leave it to deever 17,506]

Cwood better not lose to the bombers.

 

[Travy14 1,907]

I think we finish 4th and play Collingwood in first round of finals.

I actually think this would be a good result, getting Collingwood with a few players coming in after time out of the game!

i would be happy to go to Adelaide to but that now is all but ruled out.

Bris in Bris is the only fixture that really worries me!

[Demon17 5,146]

8 hours ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

Beat Hawthorn 

Go into Sydney game with clear view on what result earns an MCG double chance vs Cwood

Iv'e always thought a Pies QF at the G is our best path to the prelim. The a home prelom also.

On balace 4th is probably the spot we deserve, but we are coming into form and mainly healthy so hold no fears for any team against us at the G.

Win tomorrow and rest a few against the swans then prime THE QF.

[Demonsone 2,029]

10 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

So, as it stands with the Brisbane win over Collingwood:

1. Collingwood still seal 1st with a win over Essendon next week
2. If Collingwood loses to Essendon, a Brisbane win over St Kilda likely (subject to percentage - they're currently even on 123.2%) sees them finish 1st
3. We can only finish 2nd now if Brisbane loses to St Kilda
4. We will likely finish 3rd if we go 2-0 and Port goes 1-1, or If we go 1-1 and Port goes 0-2, or if we go 0-2 and Carlton loses at least once
5. Given the Round 24 fixture, we will know at the time the ball is bounced whether we can finish 3rd or not (if Port win this week and have already won next week, we will know we can't move up). We will also know whether Brisbane has passed Collingwood. If we lose to Hawthorn and Carlton beats Gold Coast however, we will not know if we are locked for top 4 because Carlton plays after us.

Who’s on 1st …lol lots of potentials ladder finishes , I think best outcome would be to play Collingwood @ the G regardless 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,674]

2 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

The traditionalists here will be disappointed that we will most likely have to wear our clash royal blue jumper throughout almost all finals we play (aside from the Semi Final if we lose the Qualifying Final, and the Preliminary Final if we win the Qualifying Final) unless some major finals upsets occur (i.e. teams outside the Top 4 progressing through). Yep, we’d be wearing it in the Grand Final without question too if we got that far. 

I’m happy for the boys to wear pink pyjamas across the finals series if it means we win the premiership.

But you’re spot on. Our away finals against Port, Brisbane and probably Collingwood will require us to wear royal blue. 

[old55 23,309]

3 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

The traditionalists here will be disappointed that we will most likely have to wear our clash royal blue jumper throughout almost all finals we play (aside from the Semi Final if we lose the Qualifying Final, and the Preliminary Final if we win the Qualifying Final) unless some major finals upsets occur (i.e. teams outside the Top 4 progressing through). Yep, we’d be wearing it in the Grand Final without question too if we got that far. 

Not in the PF or GF if we finish a lower ranked team gets thru to play us.

[Clintosaurus 7,808]

Pies fans on the socials have a bit of Black Knight about them. Secretly [censored] themselves.

[old55 23,309]

I think we want Port to defeat Freo so we finish 4th. I think it's most likely that Collingwood defeats Essendon next week and finishes top. QF vs Collingwood at the MCG has more appeal than vs Brisbane at the Gabba.