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The Run Home

Gawndy the Great
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

56 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Interesting post from AFL TW

Would we prefer to finish 3rd even if it means facing the Lions at the Gabba?

Worrying that the 4th placed teams on the ladder have never won a premiership.

 

Screenshot_20230816-131812.png

so finishing 7th has a better flag record than finishing 4th?  crazy   (dogs 2016)

interesting stats but what is the logic (if any) as to why finishing 3rd would have 7 flags and 4th zero aside from having a very slightly better season.  maybe as 1st is often well rested and the best team so 1st v 4th is generally a loss for 4th? 19 prelims for 3 GFs and 0 flags is nuts

 

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    7 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    so finishing 7th has a better flag record than finishing 4th?  crazy   (dogs 2016)

    interesting stats but what is the logic (if any) as to why finishing 3rd would have 7 flags and 4th zero aside from having a very slightly better season.  maybe as 1st is often well rested and the best team so 1st v 4th is generally a loss for 4th? 19 prelims for 3 GFs and 0 flags is nuts

     

    I think it does come down to that. More often than not 1st is quite a bit better than 4th

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    Pies missing De Geoy, Booby Hill, in addition to Moore and Daicos

    big big injuries.

    there might be 4 points separating the top 3 by the end of the round

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    • Like 1
     

    Pies have pulled up stumps on the H&A season, which on the one hand is fair as they can ill afford more injuries, but on the other hand is a worry because they are flirting with already pretty mediocre form.

    If Brisbane smash them, that gives them a psychological edge when/should they meet in finals.

    If Pies win without Moore, Daicos and De Goey then you can just about put a line through the Lions. 

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    • Like 4
    1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

    These stats are meaningless right now. Just keep winning 

    you had me at meaningless  ;)

     

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    • Haha 1

    25 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    so finishing 7th has a better flag record than finishing 4th?  crazy   (dogs 2016)

    interesting stats but what is the logic (if any) as to why finishing 3rd would have 7 flags and 4th zero aside from having a very slightly better season.  maybe as 1st is often well rested and the best team so 1st v 4th is generally a loss for 4th? 19 prelims for 3 GFs and 0 flags is nuts

     

    1st is favoured to beat 4rh who then have a tough match up in the SF, win or lose, against 5th who likely beat 8th.

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    • Like 4
    45 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    Booby Hill

    I think she works in a different field of entertainment altogether.

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    • Haha 8
    13 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

    I think she works in a different field of entertainment altogether.

    Ah yes, Booby Hill.  I used to be a frequent visitor but I don't get to climb that mountain very often these days

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    • Haha 6
     
    3 hours ago, DubDee said:

    Are you suggesting we don't 'give 100%' against the Swans are you?

    *assuming we beat the Hawks

    Sydney did exactly that against St Kilda in round 23 last year (IMO)

    Cruised to an early 6 goal win, were headed towards second spot and a home final against the Dees. But they also realised that they matched up really well against us at the MCG and then noticeably took the foot off the gas in the last quarter and a half for an eventual 2 goal win.

    Otherwise you would've thought they'd continue to go hell for leather after their early lead, on the way for a big win over St Kilda and secure a week 1 SCG final.

     

     

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    • Clap 1
    2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Sydney did exactly that against St Kilda in round 23 last year (IMO)

    Cruised to an early 6 goal win, were headed towards second spot and a home final against the Dees. But they also realised that they matched up really well against us at the MCG and then noticeably took the foot off the gas in the last quarter and a half for an eventual 2 goal win.

    Otherwise you would've thought they'd continue to go hell for leather after their early lead, on the way for a big win over St Kilda and secure a week 1 SCG final.

     

     

    Yeah I think it is worth considering.  However I suggested this a couple of weeks ago and was howled down by a few on here

    If the Pies lose they will have lost 3 from 4 and in poor form with injuries.  Ripe for the picking!

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    25 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

    Only thing the Pies would care about this game vs Lions is getting no more injuries....

    going into finals in bad form is a huge risk

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    3 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

    Yeah, it would be interesting to check how many of those 4th placed teams were interstate teams.

    As it turns out only 9 of those 4th placed teams were interstate teams. Less than half, something like 45%

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    2 hours ago, DubDee said:

    Pies missing De Geoy, Booby Hill, in addition to Moore and Daicos

    big big injuries.

    there might be 4 points separating the top 3 by the end of the round

    Tragic, isn't it!

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    3 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

    Pies have pulled up stumps on the H&A season, which on the one hand is fair as they can ill afford more injuries, but on the other hand is a worry because they are flirting with already pretty mediocre form.

    If Brisbane smash them, that gives them a psychological edge when/should they meet in finals.

    If Pies win without Moore, Daicos and De Goey then you can just about put a line through the Lions. 

    We smashed Brisbane late in the home and away season last year and they overran us in the final.

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    1 minute ago, chookrat said:

    We smashed Brisbane late in the home and away season last year and they overran us in the final.

    Because of our injuries. It’s not like they went on to win the flag. 
    All I’m saying is that Brisbane should beat the Pies given their outs. If they don’t then Brisbane really shouldn’t be considered a contender. 

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    • Like 3

    Lets win this week - lock in top 4!

    While beating Hawks, stay injury free!

    Against Swans - injury free!

    Then hopefully we go into finals in pretty good physical shape, our stars have definitely been better managed re more rotations etc. this season!

    Demons ready to roll in finals a chance every week, as excluding Bombers game average losing margin under 10 points, so we can beat anyone!! 
    Fritsch coming back will make a big difference, add 2 goals a week to our forward line!!

    Edited by D4Life
    Extra point re Fritsch

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    • Like 1

    9 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

    Pies have pulled up stumps on the H&A season, which on the one hand is fair as they can ill afford more injuries, but on the other hand is a worry because they are flirting with already pretty mediocre form.

    If Brisbane smash them, that gives them a psychological edge when/should they meet in finals.

    If Pies win without Moore, Daicos and De Goey then you can just about put a line through the Lions. 

    My red n blue goggle suspicions are not only are they doing it for self preservation, but they're tanking to get the Lions 2nd, or tanking two games to get the Lions up to 1st and giving themselves a home 2v3 QF v Port. Either way they're going to make it much harder for us. Hope it backfires considerably.

    Edited by John Demonic

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    Spare a moment and a last comment on an individual that played his heart out in last week's cheat fest.

    Petracca is this man who i was lucky enough to view in a little different light after his kick for goal.

    His look took on so many different emotions which i found so in depth, so meaningful, so sad but in the end so angrily determined. He took that kick on his shoulders as something quite personal and was clearly silently insulted that it was not allowed.

    We should all feel insulted that it wasn't allowed , and we should finish this without another loss. 

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    • Like 1

    Will the close losses in particular to Freo & Gws deny us a top 2 finish and host a qualifying final? We now must win both & hope Port & Lions drop 1 game each. Rather finish 4th if we can’t finish 2nd to play Collingwood @ the G 

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    • Like 1
     

    On Monday I was able to access my 2 free tickets to the Swans game thanks to the MFC, look to be cracking seats as well. Looking fwd to this game.

    Edited by Bombay Airconditioning

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    • Like 1
    15 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

    As it turns out only 9 of those 4th placed teams were interstate teams. Less than half, something like 45%

    There are ONLY 8 Interstate teams unless you are counting Cats or Tassie already. 

    West Coast and Freo can't make it so 4 is the possible viewing for the top 8 as Port and Lions are already in the Top 4. And safe.

    How does this affect your comment now? 
     

     

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