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GAMEDAY: Rd 11 vs Walyalup

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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My prediction for today's game:

Coming off an 8 day break i'm hoping the dees haven’t gone hard on the track and are cherry ripe for this game. I think they will be because my gut feeling is this is a target game and the blues game not so much.

Part of my rationale is that they didn’t look to rest or manage any players, and brought in Harmes rather than giving say Woey or Howes a game, suggesting to me that they really want some continuity. So my take is based on that assumption. 

Oliver is a big out in any circumstances, but very big against Freo because it means we are less able to exploit one of their big weaknesses – not enough big bodied quality mids. But even without Oliver, I think we will be too strong at the coal face and will look to hit them hard. 

It will be a great game for the clearance discussion, because Freo are number 4 in the AFL for clearances (and number one for hit outs) and they are an important element of how they generate scores.

But they are 18 for clangers – which is a key stat in this game because we are number one for scores from turnover and if we bring elite heat and pressure we will look to ruthlessly exploit that glaring weakness. Teams are twice as likely to score from a turnover than a clearance and that equation will be well in our favour today.

The ruck duel will be fascinating. I really rate Darcy and Jackson’s form is improving every week. Great challenge for Max and Brody and you’d have to think they are both really looking forward to the battle.

But a problem for Freo is that they rely on their rock combo for their clearance domination - and therefore scoring and territory. Against every other team they have an edge in that department. Not against us. So even if we break even that will hurt Freo.

I like the ins – Sparrow brings physicality and inside grunt that offsets missing Oliver a bit. Harmes is an another experienced, strong mid/flanker. I have sneaky feeling he might be sent to Brayshaw to limit his influence.

And I really like the out for freo in Walters. He is exactly the sort of player who has long given us trouble. But more importantly, Waters out means we don’t have quite the same issue with needing to spread our medium defenders to cover multiple threats. And the biggest threat is Schultz. I’ll be really curious to see who goes to him, but you’d have to think Mcvee will get first crack. 

Freo like to spread and switch, which I think doesn’t work so well against us as it gives us time to get our defensive structures set up.  Which in turn mean we can get our intercept game going. 

For me a big factor today is the weather. It will be perfect conditions and that means we can take more contested marks, key to our game, and we can better chain out our handballs as we transition forward – something that we really struggled with last week in the wet. And I think this is where the game will be won – on transition.  

I think the dees will be too powerful, smash them on turnover and on transition and win by 6 goals plus.

On the betting front, the odds are fascinating. We opened at an incredibly short 1.38, and rather than drifting as many might have expected (including me), we have instead continued to tighten and at the time of writing we are 1.33 (with a -19 point line).

That is very short and suggests to me that the big punters are very confident of a dees win – and perhaps have some inside knowledge about our approach to the game (ie it's a target game).

Those odds are too short for mine. I have us as favourite, but my odds would be something like 1.50 with a line of 15 points. 

Better value is the 167 Total Match Point (TMP) line.

We will attack and Freo have been trying to be more attacking in the last few games. Weather is no problems, so i'd have the TMP at 177, so 167 is great value. Recommended bet 10 units on over the TMP @ 1.90.

    • Like 1
     
    52 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

    No duty of care for the ball. 

    You're on fire Jaded 

    If we’re going to continue bombing it to Gawn/Grundy when kicking out, can we at least get some numbers around them.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    Almost certain we’ll get a far more positive run from the umpires than in recent weeks because it’s in the AFL’s better interest for us to be final’s contenders than our opponent.

    I’m not suggesting the game will be rigged but… 

    13 minutes ago, joeboy said:

    Almost certain we’ll get a far more positive run from the umpires than in recent weeks because it’s in the AFL’s better interest for us to be final’s contenders than our opponent.

    ..

    Why?

    • Thanks 1
    2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

    A stunning day for football. No excuses not to come today. Let’s give the boys the lift they need to get this very crucial win. 

    Yep, no excuse. I’m seeing way more Freo fans than I expected, and I’ve been here for two hours. They’re turning up today, as should we. 

     
    25 minutes ago, joeboy said:

    Almost certain we’ll get a far more positive run from the umpires than in recent weeks because it’s in the AFL’s better interest for us to be final’s contenders than our opponent.

    I’m not suggesting the game will be rigged but… 

    I see it the other way.... they'll want at least one W.A. team there at the pointy end

    6 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

    Yep, no excuse. I’m seeing way more Freo fans than I expected, and I’ve been here for two hours. They’re turning up today, as should we. 

    Just arrived at the ground, my first game for the year, I didn’t see us win live last year hope that run ends today. 


    I interested to see if Langdon goes back to the other wing today. They are all must win games now but christ I want this one. Go Dee's. 

     

    So Robbo (apparently starting his name with SL is banned here FGS) has lashed out at Melbourne and JLo says Freo has the number 1 ruck combination in the AFL.

    Fantastic.

    The more pressure on this team and the coaching staff  the better.

    5 minutes ago, ANG13 said:

    Just arrived at the ground, my first game for the year, I didn’t see us win live last year hope that run ends today. 

    Are you sure you shouldn’t go home ?? 

    • Like 1

    35 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

    If we’re going to continue bombing it to Gawn/Grundy when kicking out, can we at least get some numbers around them.

    I think Jacko might know that strategy

    • Like 1
    Just now, dazzledavey36 said:

    Subs?

    JJ it seems.

    Boring.

    27 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

    If we’re going to continue bombing it to Gawn/Grundy when kicking out, can we at least get some numbers around them.

    That kick out is driving me mad, so predictable, opposition just smashes it forward to waiting smalls and back in it goes again. Why can't it be mixed up a bit. I don't know the answer but sure as hell teams have learnt to combat this tactic.

    • Thanks 1
    Just now, dazzledavey36 said:

    JJ it seems.

    Boring.

    Who would you want?

    1 hour ago, kev martin said:

    Want to see us play on the edge for the entire match, hard, fast, smart footy.

    Plenty of tackling pressure, hunting and creative handballing and kicks.

    They will not give the backline easy intercepts, as the Waly's are good at not kicking down the line of the goals. Hope to see our defence being more one on one and accountable.

    Small forwards need to kick a handful.

    Go Dees.

    Need to shut down the dirty balls into our D50 We have been smashed in this area 

    • Like 1

    Clear day, clear skies i just want to see us at our marking best today.

    No excuse footy today Dees back on the G, Saturday Arvo Footy just the way we like it.

    • Like 1
    3 minutes ago, Sydee said:

    Are you sure you shouldn’t go home ?? 

    Lol. Yeah extra nervous today. 

    End of the day here in Ontario. Hoping staying up until midnight for the start of the came was a wise choice.  Make me look smart Dees.

    • Like 3
     

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