On 4/16/2023 at 1:19 PM, Redleg said:

And when you are talking about               “ potential to cause injury “ that knee to the back, with no attempt to mark, deserves punishment. But we know nothing will happen and we know our Coach doesn’t squeal like the Bombers Coach’s brother.

Disgraceful act that one...accidental coathanger on Draper next time around would be unfortunate

Only intent was to cause injury.

We lack a hit man that won't take this [censored].  More players need to fly the flag in situations like this IMV.

Game may have turned right there had we done so.

P.s. bring back Lewis!

Edited April 17, 20231 yr by Demon Dynasty

@binman to add to your basketball example another thing that teams do is create a zone in their back 50 by guarding space. Wings and mids will drop into the shallower parts of the 50m line to cut off short passes inside and block leading paths while halfbacks fill the pockets etc. I loathe the groans from the Melbourne fans when we bomb it long in these situations as they don't realise its mostly to avoid turnovers off shorter kicks which can really kill you now with how well most oppositions transition the ball. We're always looking for ground balls in these situations so the deeper the better.

Going back to shots on goal. There's a few players you would prefer not to blaze away too often. But the likes of Bayley, Kozzie, Spargo, Trac, Chandler and a few others are all fine to take shots within their range. They literally practice and train for this all week. Plus a behind still gives us a chance to set up and try to win the ball back and lock it in.

Edited April 17, 20231 yr by Young Blood

48 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Disgraceful act that one...accidental coathanger on Draper next time around would be unfortunate

Only intent was to cause injury.

We lack a hit man that won't take this [censored].  More players need to fly the flag in situations like this IMV.

Game may have turned right there had we done so.

P.s. bring back Lewis!

I’d rather Rodney Grinter. 

1 hour ago, binman said:

On 360 a couple of weeks back, David King highlighted the emergence of analytics in AFL and how important they have become for coaches in terms of informing game plans, strategies etc.

I suspect Goody is well and truly on the analytics train.

And related to that, i suspect some players have been instructed that unless there is an open player and an easy pass option to go for goal when it is on (ie not crazy shots from the boundary).

Why?

It's all about percentages.

Logic suggests that the probability of scoring is higher in certain circumstances when the player shoots for goal rather than passing to teammate. And i assume this is reflected in the data.

Often hitting a target can be almost as difficult as kicking the goal and as you suggest, passing creates an additional opportunity for a turnover.

A turnover means we lose control of the ball. A point does too, however we can set up our wall more effectively after a point

And even if the pass does hit a target, that player still has to go back and kick the goal. Which even directly in front 30 metres out might only be say a 70% chance of being converted into a goal (less depending on who is kicking).

So, it is likely analytics show that in certain circumstances (eg right player, right spot on te ground, no completely free teammate) a goal is more likely players are more likely to score a goal - and perhasp alos less liklleyu to concede a goal on transition. 

This sort of analytics has been used in NFL, MBL and the NBA for decades.

In the NBA it completely changed the sport because analytics showed that whilst three-point shots are statistically harder to hit than 2-point jump shots (and of course lay ups), putting a huge number of 3-point shots up leads to higher scoring. 

So now, pretty much every NBA team shoot massive numbers of 3-point shots, numbers that were unheard of 20 years ago. Not only has this led to an explosion in the scoring, it's also fundamentally changed the game at the elite level both in terms of how it is played (so much faster and up and down the court running - sounds bit familiar in relation to the shift in the AFL) and what sort of athlete is optimal.

Gone (well not completely gone) are the lumbering giants battling in the paint who would never take a three-point shot. Now most players are required to play multiple positions, have to be super-fast and athletic and of course be able to hit a jump shot and three pointers.

 

 

Using analytics, what would be the desired effective % and kicks to goal per game that an elite forward should have?

Would this change based on set shots and snap kicks on the run?

6 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I’d rather Rodney Grinter. 

I doubt the likes of Balls would be allowed to play anymore Red!

We do lack a genuine mongrel heavy hitter though.  May is probably about as close as we've got.

He might not have seen the incident but wow... i'd be straight at Draper if i had seen it and at him throughout the game thereafter ...on or off the ball.

20 minutes ago, Young Blood said:

@binman to add to your basketball example another thing that teams do is create a zone in their back 50 by guarding space. Wings and mids will drop into the shallower parts of the 50m line to cut off short passes inside and block leading paths while halfbacks fill the pockets etc. I loathe the groans from the Melbourne fans when we bomb it long in these situations as they don't realise its mostly to avoid turnovers off shorter kicks which can really kill you now with how well most oppositions transition the ball. We're always looking for ground balls in these situations so the deeper the better.

Going back to shots on goal. There's a few players you would prefer not to blaze away too often. But the likes of Bayley, Kozzie, Spargo, Trac, Chandler and a few others are all fine to take shots within their range. They literally practice and train for this all week. Plus a behind still gives us a chance to set up and try to win the ball back and lock it in.

Top post.

On those long kicks, you're right that is key part of our game plan. And is also a major reason why Goody likes a three tall plus a resting ruck up forward. I have little doubt that is a function of analytics based on the probability of both us scoring AND conceding a score on transition.

But as you suggest, if we don't mark it, we simply have to bring it to ground.

In hindsight, i think it was mistake not bring Schache in as the third tall when BB was an out. Our structure looked out of wack up forward - and down back too it must be said.

It was really evident how much we rely on Gawn to be a tall up forward AND down back. 

I thought Scott did an excellent job exploiting Maxy's absence (and arguably also Grundy's defensive weakness) and stretching our tall defenders - who all struggled, with the possible exception of Petty (though not till the second half) in one on ones - by getting their talls inside 50 and isolating our tall defenders. 

2 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Using analytics, what would be the desired effective % and kicks to goal per game that an elite forward should have?

Would this change based on set shots and snap kicks on the run?

I don't know. Just in terms of accuracy above 50% accuracy from set shots historically seems to be the benchmark.

But i'm guessing data like effective % and kicks to goal per game is more of an individual KPI than a teams-based use of analytics. 

As an example of the latter, on Fox, when a player is having a set shot they show that players record over their career from the (approximate) spot they are kicking from. I assume this is Champion Data data.

So, taking out conditions, they know the probability of every player kicking a set shot from any spot in the forward line (assuming they have had shots previously). 

The clubs would also have access to data on the probability of every player kicking a shot on the run from multiple points on the ground. 

In addition, they no doubt have data on what happens in both scenarios when the shot on goal is missed (which can occur in both scenarios, though obviously less often from set shots).

Taking all this data together they can arrive at the probability of having a net positive score (ie taking into account the chances of the offensive team scoring AND giving up a goal on transition) in both scenarios - ie pass or take the shot. 

For example, Fritter has won a ground ball in the pocket 30 metres out and has a free player in the corridor, but one that is likely to be covered through the opposition structure youngblood describes above.

Using analytics, the club can say with a reasonable degree of certainty (because they have the data) what the probability of a positive net score is if Fritter takes the shot and if he instead elects to pass.

If that analysis shows that over the journey Fritter taking the shot is the best option (ie is more likely to result in a positive net score) then it would make sense for him to take the shot. 

That equation will be different for say, Nibbler or Langdon. For them, the percentage play might be going for a pass or simply centering it the way Langdon so often does. 

Edited April 17, 20231 yr by binman

2 hours ago, Young Blood said:

@binman to add to your basketball example another thing that teams do is create a zone in their back 50 by guarding space. Wings and mids will drop into the shallower parts of the 50m line to cut off short passes inside and block leading paths while halfbacks fill the pockets etc. I loathe the groans from the Melbourne fans when we bomb it long in these situations as they don't realise its mostly to avoid turnovers off shorter kicks which can really kill you now with how well most oppositions transition the ball. We're always looking for ground balls in these situations so the deeper the better.

Going back to shots on goal. There's a few players you would prefer not to blaze away too often. But the likes of Bayley, Kozzie, Spargo, Trac, Chandler and a few others are all fine to take shots within their range. They literally practice and train for this all week. Plus a behind still gives us a chance to set up and try to win the ball back and lock it in.

Oh good lord thank you, finally someone who gets it!

Is this the kozzie picket thread or the game plans and jazz thread???

Came here looking for something positive after last weekends gathering in Adelaide.... found nothing NBA statistical analysis.

Any actual (or even made up) kozzie signing or not news from the trip back to SA?

I have no issue with forwards “burning” team mates. A forwards primary job is to kick goals and they need to take ownership and attempt to do that. If a forward gets the ball inside 50 and not on a tight angle, they should be having a shot. Attempting to pass just introduces another opportunity for the opposition to intercept, gain control or kill the opportunity. If a forward like Fritsch converts at 65-70%, they should take the shot everytime.

Look at Petracca as an example of someone who often tries to pass it off instead of taking ownership and having a shot. He often second guesses himself. He’d kick 30+ goals a year if he took more of the gettable shots.

8 hours ago, DeeMee said:

If Kossie goes, he goes.

If he stays, he stays.

What I don’t want is an ever, ongoing distraction that affects performance,  which I think happened with Luke last year.

Well that's outside your control 🤷

MFCSS working overtime again.

Port just asked the AFL to allow more picks from the same future round to be traded.

Just sign, Kozzie.

Goody spoke about it on 3AW. The usual cliches (working with management etc.) but did finish with a "we think something's not too far away".

https://www.3aw.com.au/simon-goodwin-addresses-kysaiah-pickett-contract-speculation/

Around the 4 minute mark.

On 4/18/2023 at 7:04 PM, IWAP said:

Goody spoke about it on 3AW. The usual cliches (working with management etc.) but did finish with a "we think something's not too far away".

https://www.3aw.com.au/simon-goodwin-addresses-kysaiah-pickett-contract-speculation/

Around the 4 minute mark.

Just listened to 3AW clip. 

First time I’ve believed that they believe they are genuinely close.

3 hours ago, Redleg said:

MFCSS working overtime again.

Port just asked the AFL to allow more picks from the same future round to be traded.

Just sign, Kozzie.

Classic sign of a club who has spent their pennies and want to spend more.
 

Fair to say AFL strategy, rules and policy aren’t heavily influenced by the Port Adelaide Power’s mid-season PR releases.

Edited April 18, 20231 yr by The Jackson FIX

2 hours ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Classic sign of a club who has spent their pennies and want to spend more.
 

Fair to say AFL strategy, rules and policy aren’t heavily influenced by the Port Adelaide Power’s mid-season PR releases.

It was actually in response to them wanting to be involved in a mega trade last year. They couldn't because it would have included their future first and second

https://www.afl.com.au/news/907486

On 4/18/2023 at 7:18 PM, The Jackson FIX said:

Just listened to 3AW clip. 

First time I’ve believed that they believe they are genuinely close.

Funny. I read it as its the first time I had thought Goody was just counting off on his fingers all he/they have done to try to get Kozzie to stay. Its sounding now more like the Jackson circus.

It must be a very difficult decision for the young bloke.

There is nothing in that interview to give us any hope. Sounds like they have done what they can and it’s now up to Kozzy.

1 minute ago, Gawndy the Great said:

There is nothing in that interview to give us any hope. Sounds like they have done what they can and it’s now up to Kozzy.

Exact feeling I got as well.

He said what he has to say. He can hardly say he's not confident he'll re-sign. 

13 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

There is nothing in that interview to give us any hope. Sounds like they have done what they can and it’s now up to Kozzy.

11 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Exact feeling I got as well.

Disagree.

McLure, who I detest but regrettably has some reasonable sources, said that "there have been murmurs around Kozzie Pickett getting closer to signing a contract".

8 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Disagree.

McLure, who I detest but regrettably has some reasonable sources, said that "there have been murmurs around Kozzie Pickett getting closer to signing a contract".

Ahh okay I wasn't aware of that in the interview.

Mitch Cleary on the tradies podcast stated that the deal with Kozzie from the Melbourne camp is that its really close to being done. There's been a shift.

"Tracking the right direction" with the club and his family being on board.

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/tradies-6-clayton-olivers-secret-phone-call-to-a/id1676700145?i=1000609495885

Talk starts at 7:55.

24 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Disagree.

McLure, who I detest but regrettably has some reasonable sources, said that "there have been murmurs around Kozzie Pickett getting closer to signing a contract".

Perhaps... but the language coming out from Goodie and co doesn't give much either way. They'd be the ones id be paying closer attention to.

Come on Kozzy. This thread needs to be put to bed. Sign the deal!