Dees Target Pick 19

[The end is nigh 136]

It would be poor planning to trade for the pick just to see what we can trade it to someone else for. Gws surely won’t trade it hastily on the first night when they have time overnight to field offers. 

Would suggest a future 1st and 37 for 19 and a return future 2nd is fairly equitable, whether that tickles gws the right way is the unknown. 
Sliding back from pick 16-19ish (pretty sure Gold Coast academy players are good enough to get bids early) to mid to late 20’s isn’t that severe a drop  

personally, I think lachie Cowan is a potentially great half back driver and will be available at 19. 

(every time I try think what we need I remember we have a Gus Brayshaw that plays so well everywhere. Great list build already)

[Gawndy the Great 4,819]

14 hours ago, Redleg said:

That could be problematic, as it has been suggested that Giants may want George. If they don’t, then 19 might get him, if that’s who we want. We could even get an earlier pick from Giants if they don’t want him and we promised to take him with the earlier pick. It would cost us 37 and F1st. My info is that Giants want Gruzewski at around 19 so it’s interesting.

We do have a good relationship with the Giants clearing Toby and Preuss        recently.

If it was to happen, I wonder if it would be an on the night trade, when they know exactly who is still available.

That doesn’t compute. why would we want to go backwards to 19 with a F1 and 37. 37 and F2 I can understand. Am I missing something here?

 

[durango 1,822]

It is only a rumour which has not beeen substantiated by some facts.

Sometimes a rumour is started by the owner of a pick to create a demand for that pick by a number clubs to get the best value.

Other times a jounalist starts a rumour on a slow day to pump up the sales of information without a shred of fact.

[Axis of Bob 8,835]

I think the difference is that when you are trading up the order you aren't trading for a draft pick, you're trading up for a specific player or a couple of players. A first round pick next year gives you a wide range of potential outcomes, including that the players available at your pick aren't the types of player that you're particularly interested in, whilst using it on a player now reduces that uncertainty and (theoretically) improves the likelihood of that player succeeding in your system.

If we have a player that we are confident will be around at 19, and we are super keen on getting them because they fit with our team/system/whatever, then I'd have no hesitation in trading a future first round pick +37 for pick 19. Because at that stage we aren't trading a future first and pick 37 for pick 19, we're trading it for player XYZ who we want. It will depend on the quality of that specific player (and needs, team timelines, etc) as to whether the trade makes sense or not. If you're just looking at it mathematically (future pick 18 + 37 > pick 19) then it won't make sense .... except that the players themselves aren't draft picks, they're unique individuals.

I'd happily trade one of our future first round picks for a player we really want. We will at least be guaranteed of selecting a player we really want, rather than just the possibility of doing so next year.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Axis of Bob

[Colm 850]

When you’re looking to trade in or up the draft you always pay overs so future first and 37 seems about right. We are only using one pick this year anyways. 
The fact that we are willing to trade out a future pick for 19 says to me that we do rate this draft as we clearly think there will be a  quality player or players still available at that pick.
JT often sees things a bit different to other recruiters and pundits and if he thinks there will be a good player for us at 19 then I’ll be stoked if we make the move and get someone in a year early as we have in previous years. 

[McQueen 16,455]

10 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

I think the difference is that when you are trading up the order you aren't trading for a draft pick, you're trading up for a specific player or a couple of players. A first round pick next year gives you a wide range of potential outcomes, including that the players available at your pick aren't the types of player that you're particularly interested in, whilst using it on a player now reduces that uncertainty and (theoretically) improves the likelihood of that player succeeding in your system.

If we have a player that we are confident will be around at 19, and we are super keen on getting them because they fit with our team/system/whatever, then I'd have no hesitation in trading a future first round pick +37 for pick 19. Because at that stage we aren't trading a future first and pick 37 for pick 19, we're trading it for player XYZ who we want. It will depend on the quality of that specific player (and needs, team timelines, etc) as to whether the trade makes sense or not. If you're just looking at it mathematically (future pick 18 + 37 > pick 19) then it won't make sense .... except that the players themselves aren't draft picks, they're unique individuals.

I'd happily trade one of our future first round picks for a player we really want. We will at least be guaranteed of selecting a player we really want, rather than just the possibility of doing so next year.

But wouldn’t the ‘guaranteed’ part of your opinion be heavily based around some knowledge that the unique individual is in the sights of other clubs between 19 and 37?

I’m sure this is a pretty complex game of chess which involves rumours and name-dropping via recruiters in certain forums. 
We must have some pretty good intel to be in the position to make a play/gamble on such a move if this is indeed credible. 

[Mach5 3,793]

2 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Our two F1 are most likely to be in the 14 - 18 range.  Doubt GWS will accept just a F1 for pick #19.  They will want something else which could be a F2 depending on which of our two F1 is offered and what other clubs are offering.

Unless they get an 'offer they can't refuse' GWS will hold on to #19 until the first round of the draft is over when they will have all night and next day to negotiate the best deal.

So doubt there will be any news before the first round of the draft is over.

 

As an aside, draft pick swaps are closed until the start of the draft itself.  Lots of wheeling and dealing in the meantime...

Doubtful it would cost more than a F1. Remember GWS have 4 around the top 20, so would be keen to spread that out a bit, works for both. 

In all likelihood we’re just canvassing GWS to prepare them for an offer if the chips fall a certain way.

[Axis of Bob 8,835]

5 minutes ago, McQueen said:

But wouldn’t the ‘guaranteed’ part of your opinion be heavily based around some knowledge that the unique individual is in the sights of other clubs between 19 and 37?

The other scenario is if you think the player/s you rate at 19 is vastly better than the one you think will be available at 37. 

If we have players that we rate as being worthy of pick 13 and think that one/some of them will be available at 19, then we will effectively be trading for another pick 13.

And, of course, some players are far more valuable for some teams that they will be for others. What do you think the likelihood of Freo selecting a ruckman or Carlton selecting a key forward with a first round pick? Conversely, imagine that scenario with Freo picking the tall forward and Carlton picking the ruckman? There will be some players that complement our playing group better than others, so we will rate them higher than others.  

There's certainly an element of guesswork about what players will be available. Part of trading up is to remove a lot of that guesswork and you will pay a premium to remove that risk. We're lucky that we have a lot of good players and we can really focus our recruiting on getting a few quality players rather than needing to take as many picks as we can to get talent into the club. That means that the premium to target specific players is worth more to us than it will most other teams.

[poita 3,079]

That would be a totally dumb idea for a club that has tied itself up in knots in recent years trying to game the system. As good as Jake Bowey was in 2021, let's not forget that Bailey Laurie was the other outcome from our pissfarting around in 2020. Laurie is a long way from a pick 22 at this point, and effectively cost us a first round pick in this year's draft.

We have a strong hand in a strong 2023 draft. I'll be very disappointed if we don't keep all of those 2023 picks.

[Turner 1,337]

twomey just said on road to the draft live that we've packaged up both next years 1st rounders along with another selection or two and gone at NM/Ess/GCS's 3,4,or 5 this year which is interesting

[adonski 7,010]

4 minutes ago, Turner said:

twomey just said on road to the draft live that we've packaged up both next years 1st rounders along with another selection or two and gone at NM/Ess/GCS's 3,4,or 5 this year which is interesting

Wow!

[Lucifers Hero 34,412]

2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Doubtful it would cost more than a F1. Remember GWS have 4 around the top 20, so would be keen to spread that out a bit, works for both. 

In all likelihood we’re just canvassing GWS to prepare them for an offer if the chips fall a certain way.

Pick 19 carries a premium so it would cost better than whatever other teams are prepared to pay.  There is no way of knowing what other offers might be until draft night as pick swaps are not allowed before then.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[Lucifers Hero 34,412]

32 minutes ago, Turner said:

twomey just said on road to the draft live that we've packaged up both next years 1st rounders along with another selection or two and gone at NM/Ess/GCS's 3,4,or 5 this year which is interesting

The guessing games begin as to who we are chasing in the top 5/6!!

The following players are consistently mentioned in the top 6 in the main Phantom drafts.

• Ashcroft
• Wardlaw
• Cadman
• Sheezel
• Tsatas

We sure aren't chasing a tall KPD in a move up to 3, 4, or 5.  Unless of course there is a late Oliver type bolter!!  With the exception of Cadman the top 10 in Twomey's phantom draft are midfielders between 180cm and 190cm and nearly all are Victorians.

If nothing else it certainly rattles the cage of all those thinking the top 10 club selecions were pretty well set.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[DeeSpencer 20,051]

20 minutes ago, Turner said:

twomey just said on road to the draft live that we've packaged up both next years 1st rounders along with another selection or two and gone at NM/Ess/GCS's 3,4,or 5 this year which is interesting

When I said a few weeks ago the rumour was we were trying to go up I knew it meant very up. So not surprised at all by that. 

There’s a player we very much want. 

[A F 21,286]

21 minutes ago, Turner said:

twomey just said on road to the draft live that we've packaged up both next years 1st rounders along with another selection or two and gone at NM/Ess/GCS's 3,4,or 5 this year which is interesting

If true, I love how aggressive we are.

[Matt 419]

18 minutes ago, A F said:

If true, I love how aggressive we are.

I think it could be the Essendon pick. They have been the ones most open to a trade the whole time.

[durango 1,822]

If they are trying to get Essendon's 4 then maybe the will swap 13, 37 and next year 1st rounder for 4 and 22?

[Lucifers Hero 34,412]

Twomey goes on to say he doesn't think any of the clubs with 3, 4, or 5 will move.

It sounded like there was a lot of pick manoevering going on with some clubs.

[durango 1,822]

I listened to Cal Twomey and he has no idea what is happening because trades cannot be completed before the 28th, it is all conjecture at this stage.

He thinks pick 19 is the only one that may be available because the top end picks are not available to MFC.

[Colm 850]

He also said that Sydney would be open to trading out both their first round picks for future first.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Colm

[dazzledavey36 42,306]

Love the aggressive approach.

[manny100 633]

Interesting that ESPN in their Nov power rankings have Jefferson dropping out of the top 20. It appears that it is a 'footy world' mindset/assumption that we will pick him up with our first at pick13.

Don't be surprised if we go another player. Maybe Jefferson at 19 if he is available and we get that pick.

[adonski 7,010]

3 minutes ago, manny100 said:

Interesting that ESPN in their Nov power rankings have Jefferson dropping out of the top 20. It appears that it is a 'footy world' mindset/assumption that we will pick him up with our first at pick13.

Don't be surprised if we go another player. Maybe Jefferson at 19 if he is available and we get that pick.

KnightMARE will fade any player Dees are interested in, hates us!

[Demon Disciple 9,201]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

KnightMARE will fade any player Dees are interested in, hates us!

Oh no, how will I sleep tonight knowing that quack isn’t a fan of the mighty MFC

[spirit of norm smith 10,489]

I’d think a future 2023 (Freo) 1st and ‘22 MFC #37

for

’22 #19 and a return GWS future 2nd

is a good deal 

Might be the strategy to add an earlier pick this year to grab Brayden George or Max Gruzewski. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by spirit of norm smith
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