ROAD TO THE GRAND FINAL

[titan_uranus 25,043]

On 8/27/2022 at 7:57 AM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

This is where the finals structure is flawed.

Geelong (the minor premiers) plays a team with a percentage of just 104 in the week 1 qualifying final. However if they win that, they potentially play the second or third ranked side (Melbourne or Sydney) in the prelim with percentages around the 128-131 mark. Clearly, all things being equal Melbourne and Sydney should be a tougher match up on paper than Collingwood to win a prelim.

History suggests there’s a good chance Geelong has a comfy win over Collingwood but then fall over against a higher ranked Sydney or Melbourne in the prelim.

We did well last year in that out prelim opponent (Geelong) was a tougher matchup than our qualifying opponent (Brisbane).

Before the pre-finals bye, the major reward for finish 1st was the easier QF and therefore the easier road to a prelim. You'd get the week off but 3rd/4th would be forced to slog it out in a semi before you get the 1v3 and 2v4 scenario.

The pre-finals bye dilutes the advantage of finishing top because everyone gets to rest and rest.

If we ditch the pre-finals bye, as we should, 1st will get some of its mojo back.

1 hour ago, praha said:

Geelong still play like this. They haven't changed.

Unless they surprise us and bring a very high contested and high pressure contest forward of the ball, it's still between one of Melbourne, Sydney and Collingwood to win it. No disrespect against Geelong but they flex too infrequently against top opposition and their fixture gifts them an easy run home every year because it's stacked with GMHBA games in the second half, and "big" and successful teams rarely travel down there (Melbourne the exception).

They are a low pressure and low tackle team in the F50 when the ball hits the ground: they are highly efficient with good entry which is unsurprising given their targets down there.

Realistically though, Melbourne, Collingwood and Sydney should ALL trouble Geelong *if* they defend to the peak. Each posses a strong interception games and players and on the MCG I'm sceptical of Geelong.

The Cats are going to have to compromise high scoring and bags from Hawkins and Cameron. Both are going to have to perform higher up the ground as the flag this year will be won off the back of defensive transition, and centre break goals. No chance Sydney and Melbourne gift Geelong forwards easy reign in the air. 

Geelong's better than this, but I generally agree with your overall position.

I think Geelong's overrated. All this media bleating about how they finished two games and percentage clear of 2nd: they played North and West Coast twice each, which no other top 8 side did. All this media bleating about them being undefeated post-bye - they played three top 8 sides in that run, two of them at GMHBA and for the third they KO'd one of their best players then only won by a kick.

They're better than previous versions, and they're clearly in contention for the flag along with us and Sydney, but no matter what Chris Scott or Joel Selwood say externally, there cannot be any doubt that the pressure is squarely on them to produce good quality football in a final.

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

I saw just a few minutes of FC last night and they showed a clip of McLachlan saying "...they are overcooked.." and then the comment from one of the panelists was something like:  "...based on that, if you are Melbourne you may as well take your bat and ball and go home..."

It seemed odd the Gill would make such a comment about any finalist let alone the reigning premier that is 2nd on the ladder.  The clip looked like it was taken from a broader interview so the context wasn't obvious.

Did anyone see it and could you tell if Gill was shutting the door on the Dees chances or was it just FC trying to create click bait.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[640MD 3,429]

Gill said that but, you did not hear the full text.?   But they did not go into it much at all 

 

but then being a bit deaf. I might not have heard the lead up. 
I would like to see the whole interview l

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

21 minutes ago, 640MD said:

Gill said that but, you did not hear the full text.?   But they did not go into it much at all 

 

but then being a bit deaf. I might not have heard the lead up. 
I would like to see the whole interview l

No I didn't hear the full text.  The little I saw looked like several bits of an interview patched together.

Gill is usually very diplomatic so the clip seemed really strange.  I've tried to find the source interview but no luck.

Most likely click bait!

Edited August 29, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[old55 23,691]

Geelong, Melbourne or Sydney will win the flag. Collingwood can't win it with their uncontested style. They'll have to get through at least two of the three above to do it and that won't happen. Richmond may win this week but will find it too hard against Sydney or Melbourne the next week. The rest are making up the numbers.

[DubDee 26,117]

So who do we want to win Saturday based purely on who we potentially play PF and GF. I think we want the Cats to win so we would face an easier PF opponent correct?

But, I would love to see the Cats lose on saturday just to see them [censored] the bed and potentially go out in straights sets....

[daisycutter 29,738]

4 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So who do we want to win Saturday based purely on who we potentially play PF and GF. I think we want the Cats to win so we would face an easier PF opponent correct?

But, I would love to see the Cats lose on saturday just to see them [censored] the bed and potentially go out in straights sets....

i'd prefer they both lose

[old55 23,691]

5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So who do we want to win Saturday based purely on who we potentially play PF and GF. I think we want the Cats to win so we would face an easier PF opponent correct?

But, I would love to see the Cats lose on saturday just to see them [censored] the bed and potentially go out in straights sets....

It depends on whether we win on Friday - likely to be our biggest test.

[Mr Steve 3,820]

If we lose we can all play Monopoly. Melbourne Demons Premiers Edition Monopoly released late Sept. Not sure if its released 12 months late or two week early. 

https://twitter.com/melbournefc/status/1564394884961669121?s=20&t=SLz24t3FbBmte9QIQJvg4w

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Mr Steve
Link

[DubDee 26,117]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

It depends on whether we win on Friday - likely to be our biggest test.

assuming we win....

[Deenooos_ 647]

4 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I saw just a few minutes of FC last night and they showed a clip of McLachlan saying "...they are overcooked.." and then the comment from one of the panelists was something like:  "...based on that, if you are Melbourne you may as well take your bat and ball and go home..."

It seemed odd the Gill would make such a comment about any finalist let alone the reigning premier that is 2nd on the ladder.  The clip looked like it was taken from a broader interview so the context wasn't obvious.

Did anyone see it and could you tell if Gill was shutting the door on the Dees chances or was it just FC trying to create click bait.

I saw the parts of the Gill interview and the comments sounded pretty disrespectful to be frank.

”I feel Melbourne are a bit oversold, frankly, uhh.. they’re the current premiership team.. what were they? 10-0. Everyone has their wobbles and clearly Geelong look great and I think Melbourne are a bit overdone.”

Load of crap if you ask me. I [censored] hope we go back to back to prove everyone wrong and show them our generational team, I’m over the overarching negativity towards us!

[Deemania since 56 6,718]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

So who do we want to win Saturday based purely on who we potentially play PF and GF. I think we want the Cats to win so we would face an easier PF opponent correct?

But, I would love to see the Cats lose on saturday just to see them [censored] the bed and potentially go out in straights sets....

Agreed, No sorrow for the good riddance of the Cats. The arrogance - bred for years from assistive AFL officialdom in all of its worst forms to the detriment of all other teams in the AFL - can only be rewarded (or negated) by another finals collapse achieved as early as possible. 

[Deemania since 56 6,718]

3 minutes ago, Deenooos_ said:

I saw the parts of the Gill interview and the comments sounded pretty disrespectful to be frank.

”I feel Melbourne are a bit oversold, frankly, uhh.. they’re the current premiership team.. what were they? 10-0. Everyone has their wobbles and clearly Geelong look great and I think Melbourne are a bit overdone.”

Load of crap if you ask me. I [censored] hope we go back to back to prove everyone wrong and show them our generational team, I’m over the overarching negativity towards us!

Statements like that from the highest AFL official confirm that he does not see the benefit or right of passage provided by an even playing field and environment.

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

44 minutes ago, Deenooos_ said:

I saw the parts of the Gill interview and the comments sounded pretty disrespectful to be frank.

”I feel Melbourne are a bit oversold, frankly, uhh.. they’re the current premiership team.. what were they? 10-0. Everyone has their wobbles and clearly Geelong look great and I think Melbourne are a bit overdone.”

Load of crap if you ask me. I [censored] hope we go back to back to prove everyone wrong and show them our generational team, I’m over the overarching negativity towards us!

Very poor of McLachlan.  We've won one premiership in 57 years and struggled for decades.  And, what does he even mean by 'overdone'.

He clearly doesn't want us to win.

I hope Goodwin plays the comment  back to the players and it spurs them on in the same way Ed's:  "one trick pony' spurred on the Pies.

[PaulRB 6,411]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Very poor of McLachlan.  We've won one premiership in 57 years and struggled for decades.  And, what does he even mean by 'overdone'.

He clearly doesn't want us to win.

I hope Goodwin plays the comment  back to the players and it spurs them on in the same way Ed's:  "one trick pony' spurred on the Pies.

I think Gill means by "oversold" that we are better odds of winning the flag than many rate us... I took his quote as an endorsement that we are the close to favourite but not noticed... yet. 

[jnrmac 20,186]

18 hours ago, praha said:

Geelong still play like this. They haven't changed.

Unless they surprise us and bring a very high contested and high pressure contest forward of the ball, it's still between one of Melbourne, Sydney and Collingwood to win it. No disrespect against Geelong but they flex too infrequently against top opposition and their fixture gifts them an easy run home every year because it's stacked with GMHBA games in the second half, and "big" and successful teams rarely travel down there (Melbourne the exception).

The Cats are going to have to compromise high scoring and bags from Hawkins and Cameron. Both are going to have to perform higher up the ground as the flag this year will be won off the back of defensive transition, and centre break goals. No chance Sydney and Melbourne gift Geelong forwards easy reign in the air. 

They have definitely changed but they haven't really been tested.

When they played us they went with a plan that worked, They really attacked our kick ins to the usual left spot for example. One of their talls would take a huge run up and smash the ball forward - passed our crumbers waiting for the spillage - to a couple of geelong players that would generate a repeat entry.

They moved the ball a lot quicker than in previous games and switched the ball repeatedly. We were slow to close them down and they owned the corridor.

I think they have played their hand too early and shown their cards. We won't let that happen again.

And the pressure on them is out of this world. They have already engraved the cup if you listen to the good folk of geelong. If they lose the first game - and the Pies have a good record against them - they will [censored] the bed and go out in straight sets.

Thats what I am predicting anyway!

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

I think Gill means by "oversold" that we are better odds of winning the flag than many rate us... I took his quote as an endorsement that we are the close to favourite but not noticed... yet. 

Wouldn’t this mean “undersold” if anything to do with odds of winning?

[Mr Steve 3,820]

9 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Wouldn’t this mean “undersold” if anything to do with odds of winning?

Going by today's Hun he said "I feel that Melbourne are a bit "under-hyped' frankly. they're are the current premiership team - they were 10 - 0. Everyone's got to have their wobbles, Goes on the say Melbourne are a bit undersold.

[Miles from Nowhere 199]

If a stock, or in this case a bet, is oversold it is too cheap. Sellers have driven the price down; it is a buyer's market.

When a commentator says it is overdone it means that to their eyes there has been too much selling or not enough buying.

Therefore, we are "overs" - in a market that is supposedly priced for perfection - the Demons are false odds. The price is too long for the reasons stated.

I am no McLachlan apologist but in this case a number of posters have disappeared down the wrong wormhole.

[layzie 34,003]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

.

I hope Goodwin plays the comment  back to the players and it spurs them on in the same way Ed's:  "one trick pony' spurred on the Pies.

This.

[rpfc 28,779]

1 hour ago, Mr Steve said:

Going by today's Hun he said "I feel that Melbourne are a bit "under-hyped' frankly. they're are the current premiership team - they were 10 - 0. Everyone's got to have their wobbles, Goes on the say Melbourne are a bit undersold.

Of course he meant this - he’s a hype man for the finals he is talking up all the teams. Every single team has been talked up this year as a flag chance - it’s a huge final series.

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

1 hour ago, PaulRB said:

I think Gill means by "oversold" that we are better odds of winning the flag than many rate us... I took his quote as an endorsement that we are the close to favourite but not noticed... yet. 

Thanks, that makes a lot more sense of his comments.

I know nothing about betting so the references went right over my head.

FC bits and pieces made it sound like he didn't rate us.  Not his style to say that stuff.  FC click baiting again.!

[layzie 34,003]

This is the problem with the press. They take one little thing and go on and on and on with it. 

[Bitter but optimistic 22,246]

Just now, layzie said:

This is the problem with the press. They take one little thing and go on and on and on with it. 

That would never happen Demonland Layz !!!!!!!!!!

[Kent 2,914]

Just now, Bitter but optimistic said:

That would never happen Demonland Layz !!!!!!!!!!

Yes BBO just look at the LJ thread on and on and on and on with zero facts.