Premiership Metrics - what do the last ten premiership teams have in common?

[WheeloRatings 993]

What do the last ten premiership teams have in common? They were all ranked in the top 6 in the following statistical categories in their premiership year:

• Shots at goal differential (all ranked top 4)
• Total points conceded
• Opposition shots at goal
• Opposition goals
• Percentage
• Inside 50s

Following on from the thread H&A % as an indicator of team chances to win Finals, I decided to look at what stats (including percentage) recent premiership teams have in common using a somewhat simplistic methodology.

I have analysed the ranks of the last ten premiership teams against a large number of statistical categories in their premiership year. There are 26 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6. The list of the 26 categories are in the images at the end of this post.

Nine of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 21 of these 26 categories (the Western Bulldogs ranked in the top 6 in 18 categories in 2016). Melbourne ranked number 1 in 16 of these categories last year, more than any other premiership team in the last ten years.

There are currently three standout teams this season for these "premiership metrics" - Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney.

"Premiership Metrics" ranked in the top 6 in 2022

• 25: Geelong ⭐
• 24: Melbourne ⭐
• 19: Sydney ⭐
• 14: Brisbane
• 14: Richmond
• 13: Fremantle
• 11: Collingwood
• 10: Western Bulldogs
• 8: Carlton

What are the Premiership Metrics?

 

Where do teams ranks against these metrics in 2022?

Edited August 14, 2022 by WheeloRatings

[The heart beats true 16,475]

Where does ‘cheer squad noise’ and ‘supporter pessimism’ rate in these metrics?

[whatwhat say what 19,474]

4 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

Where does ‘cheer squad noise’ and ‘supporter pessimism’ rate in these metrics?

mfcss is top of the tree

[3183 Dee 2,626]

Thanks for taking the time to do this 👍

[Engorged Onion 9,453]

As always @WheeloRatings, fantastic work.

 

[ElDiablo14 3,326]

2 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

What do the last ten premiership teams have in common? They were all ranked in the top 6 in the following statistical categories in their premiership year:

• Shots at goal differential (all ranked top 4)
• Total points conceded
• Opposition shots at goal
• Opposition goals
• Percentage
• Inside 50s

Following on from the thread H&A % as an indicator of team chances to win Finals, I decided to look at what stats (including percentage) recent premiership teams have in common using a somewhat simplistic methodology.

I have analysed the ranks of the last ten premiership teams against a large number of statistical categories in their premiership year. There are 26 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6. The list of the 26 categories are in the images at the end of this post.

Nine of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 21 of these 26 categories (the Western Bulldogs ranked in the top 6 in 18 categories in 2016). Melbourne ranked number 1 in 16 of these categories last year, more than any other premiership team in the last ten years.

There are currently three standout teams this season for these "premiership metrics" - Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney.

"Premiership Metrics" ranked in the top 6 in 2022

• 25: Geelong ⭐
• 24: Melbourne ⭐
• 19: Sydney ⭐
• 14: Brisbane
• 14: Richmond
• 13: Fremantle
• 11: Collingwood
• 10: Western Bulldogs
• 8: Carlton

What are the Premiership Metrics?

 

Where do teams ranks against these metrics in 2022?

Impressive what the boys accomplished last year, it should be spoken as one of the most dominant seasons including the finals.

[ElDiablo14 3,326]

@binman is this the reason you always keep the confidence high? 

[Gawndy the Great 7,667]

Geelong rank #1 in 11 categories. Which is probably more of a telling factor about who is likely to win it,  albeit Richmond during their era didn’t really dominate these stats.

Great work though. 

[3183 Dee 2,626]

16 minutes ago, CYB said:

Geelong rank #1 in 11 categories. Which is probably more of a telling factor about who is likely to win it,  albeit Richmond during their era didn’t really dominate these stats.

Great work though. 

Although, a distinct home advantage and a more favourable draw may skew things for the Cats? I don’t know - just clutching at straws!

[praha 10,329]

2 minutes ago, 3183 Dee said:

Although, a distinct home advantage and a more favourable draw may skew things for the Cats? I don’t know - just clutching at straws!

It's not though. Statistically Geelong are almost guaranteed at least 8 wins a year from playing in Geelong. 

[WheeloRatings 993]

13 minutes ago, CYB said:

Geelong rank #1 in 11 categories. Which is probably more of a telling factor about who is likely to win it,  albeit Richmond during their era didn’t really dominate these stats.

Great work though. 

Thanks!

I re-ran the analysis for just home and away matches and looked at teams that did not win the premiership, and dominating these metrics certainly doesn't guarantee a premiership. The updated H&A version has 25 metrics - Hawthorn 2012 were #1 in 13 metrics, Geelong 2013 were #1 in 11, Adelaide 2017 were #1 in 10. Also, Richmond 2018 and Geelong 2013 were top 6 in all 25.

[MurDoc516 1,322]

By the end of the season we will have played 1 team outside the top 9 teams in the last 12 weeks while being banged up with injuries.

This doesn't excuse our losses nor does it garuntee we will suddenly beat everyone in the finals, but keeping those metrics as high as we are with such a difficult run in vs let's say Geelong or Collingwood having much more favourable draws is a reason to have confidence.

[layzie 29,539]

1 hour ago, 3183 Dee said:

Although, a distinct home advantage and a more favourable draw may skew things for the Cats? I don’t know - just clutching at straws!

I really hope your straws work out!

[Anti-Saint 215]

most interesting and thanks WheeloRatings

 

and

 

 

[Deenooos_ 647]

10 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

What do the last ten premiership teams have in common? They were all ranked in the top 6 in the following statistical categories in their premiership year:

• Shots at goal differential (all ranked top 4)
• Total points conceded
• Opposition shots at goal
• Opposition goals
• Percentage
• Inside 50s

Following on from the thread H&A % as an indicator of team chances to win Finals, I decided to look at what stats (including percentage) recent premiership teams have in common using a somewhat simplistic methodology.

I have analysed the ranks of the last ten premiership teams against a large number of statistical categories in their premiership year. There are 26 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6. The list of the 26 categories are in the images at the end of this post.

Nine of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 21 of these 26 categories (the Western Bulldogs ranked in the top 6 in 18 categories in 2016). Melbourne ranked number 1 in 16 of these categories last year, more than any other premiership team in the last ten years.

There are currently three standout teams this season for these "premiership metrics" - Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney.

"Premiership Metrics" ranked in the top 6 in 2022

• 25: Geelong ⭐
• 24: Melbourne ⭐
• 19: Sydney ⭐
• 14: Brisbane
• 14: Richmond
• 13: Fremantle
• 11: Collingwood
• 10: Western Bulldogs
• 8: Carlton

What are the Premiership Metrics?

 

Where do teams ranks against these metrics in 2022?

This is really encouraging. Based on this we have been extremely dominant this year contrary to popular belief.

I wonder what we were ranked in these stats from rounds 1-10, I'm sure we were ranked #1 in many of them. 

Anywho this makes us clear second favourite for the flag based on these metrics and Collingwood is nowhere near premiership standard... there are only really 3 favourites with a profile that stacks up.

Hope we can sharpen up some of our lacking key areas.

For those concerned about facing Brisbane next week, they are really poor defensively and we match up well against them, winning 7 of our last 10 encounters.

Edited August 14, 2022 by Deenooos_

[HarpenDee 174]

5 hours ago, MurDoc516 said:

By the end of the season we will have played 1 team outside the top 9 teams in the last 12 weeks while being banged up with injuries.

Very fair point. I saw First Crack saying our ball movement since r17 is 17th in the comp.

Putting the silly sample size to one side:

Our run has been Geelong at cattery, Port in their last crack at finals in Alice, Dogs in their Granny, Freo in Perth, Pies in their Granny and Blues in their Granny. Nearly always with comparatively worse travel schedules and short breaks.

Id love us to smash Brisbane on the weekend and see the narrative change once again.

[1964_2 2,357]

7 hours ago, MurDoc516 said:

By the end of the season we will have played 1 team outside the top 9 teams in the last 12 weeks while being banged up with injuries.

This doesn't excuse our losses nor does it garuntee we will suddenly beat everyone in the finals, but keeping those metrics as high as we are with such a difficult run in vs let's say Geelong or Collingwood having much more favourable draws is a reason to have confidence.

I think the view of us being “banged up with injuries” is not actually accurate. Relative to a normal year, we really haven’t had many injuries at all. 

relative to last year we have had more, but last year we had an abnormally low amount. 

[Deenooos_ 647]

30 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

I think the view of us being “banged up with injuries” is not actually accurate. Relative to a normal year, we really haven’t had many injuries at all. 

relative to last year we have had more, but last year we had an abnormally low amount. 

I think MD means that in comparison to last year we've had plenty of players returning from injury in season such as Salem, Lever, Gawn, Jackson to name a few plus being 5-6 players affected by the flu including Petracca. It seems even though our injury list is small our players out there aren't 100%

I also think given the timing of Gawn's/Jacksons injury and the flu running through the team may have impacted our loading program. We might not have nailed it this year but who knows, just seems we're still being overrun somewhat.

[layzie 29,539]

[binman 39,000]

2 hours ago, Deenooos_ said:

We might not have nailed it this year but who knows, just seems we're still being overrun somewhat.

Agree. We are definitely struggling to run our games relative to our opposition at the moment.

In the last half of q4 the blues and the pies were winning the critical contests and looked the stronger sides. And the real tell was our inability to get overlap run and waves of players to transition the ball and create scoring chains 

Which is one reason I thought our win against the blues was so meritorious.

But if you support the concept of the dees having implemented a carefully calibrated periodisation program, then we are still on the upward trajectory physically and weeks away from our peak.

Whereas the pies and the blues are probably close to their peak. Which was helpful for them against us as both games were at finals like intensity levels.

A couple of contextual things to consider in comparing this year's physical readiness compared to last year.

The lighting was no doubt a factor in the Eagles game, but the fact remains the eagles ran out the 2021 round 21 game better. 

And the crows came back from a sizeable deficit in the second half of the round 22 game, to get within four goals, before three very late goals by us padded the margin.

And that game was little more than a run around compared to the intensity of the blues game. 

The lions game is fascinating in terms of the parallels with last year's round 23 game.

We are playing a top 4 team, on their home deck where they have a huge  home ground advantage and a win could help ensure a top 2 finish for us.

Geelong has a huge amount riding on that game last year as a win would mean they didn't have to play port at home in the qualifying final. 

The lions have even more riding on it than the cats did. They lose and they drop to 6th, as might we.

That scenario has a curious echo of last year too, in that the lions were the beneficiary of the dog's stumble against Port, and luckily scrapped into the top 4 at the dog's expense.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by binman

[Deenooos_ 647]

24 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree. We are definitely struggling to run our games relative to our opposition at the moment.

In the last half of q4 the blues and the pies  were winning the critical contests and looked the stronger sides. And the real tell was our inability to get overlap run and waved of players to transition the ball and create scoring chains 

Which is one reason I thought our win against the blues was so meritorious.

But if you support the concept of the dees having implemented a carefully calibrated periodisation program, then we are still on the upward trajectory physically and weeks away from our peak.

Whereas the pies and the blues are probably close to their peak. Which was helpful for them against us as both games were at finals like intensity levels.

A couple of contextual things to consider if comparing this year's physical readiness compared to last years.

The lighting was no doubt a factor in the Eagles game, but the fact remains the eagles ran out the 2021 round game better. 

And the crows c1ame back from a sizeable deficit in the second half of tbe round 22 game, to get within four goals, before three very late goals by us padded the margin.

And that game was little more than a run around compared to the intensity of the blues game. 

The lions game is fascinating in terms of it parallels with last years round 23 game.

We are playing a top 4 team, on their home deck where they have a huge  home ground advantage and a win could help ensure a top 2 finish.

Geelong has a huge amount riding on that game lasy year too as a win would mean tbey didn't have to play port at home in the qualifying final. 

The lions have even more riding on it than the cats did. They lose and they drop to 6th, as might we.

That scenario has a curious echo of ladt year too, in that the lions were the beneficiary of the dog's stumble against Port, and luckily scrapped into the top 4 at the dog's expense.

 

 

Thanks for this.

Last year we played 3 bottom 10 teams and 1 top 4 team in the last 4 games. This year we've played (going to play) 3 top 4 teams and 1 top 8 team in the remaining 4 last. As periodisation is such a calculated science we could still be on the upsing and have only looked so vulnerable in the last qtrs because we are playing solid opposition who are naturally going to go with us.

*Obviously a plethora of our problems remain with or without fitness; the most obvious one being forward cohesion.

It really frustrates me because today you could see just how ordinary Collingwood is when they can't deliver all that pressure for the whole game. They were "one trick ponied" by Sydney and they couldn't score, lol.

I just worry now, top 4 being on the line, if we can still bring enough on Friday against the Lions. They aren't going so well themselves but will be playing like their life depends on it so we'll see.

[binman 39,000]

1 hour ago, Deenooos_ said:

Thanks for this.

Last year we played 3 bottom 10 teams and 1 top 4 team in the last 4 games. This year we've played (going to play) 3 top 4 teams and 1 top 8 team in the remaining 4 last. As periodisation is such a calculated science we could still be on the upsing and have only looked so vulnerable in the last qtrs because we are playing solid opposition who are naturally going to go with us.

*Obviously a plethora of our problems remain with or without fitness; the most obvious one being forward cohesion.

It really frustrates me because today you could see just how ordinary Collingwood is when they can't deliver all that pressure for the whole game. They were "one trick ponied" by Sydney and they couldn't score, lol.

I just worry now, top 4 being on the line, if we can still bring enough on Friday against the Lions. They aren't going so well themselves but will be playing like their life depends on it so we'll see.

Yep, will be a fascinating game. 

I have been looking at looking to last year for some parallels that could be drawn to this year to help me make sense of where we are at ,and where we might be heading.

In this corresponding match last year we were the team that ran over the top of the opposition, and a very strong one that at.

We came from 41 points down with 8 mins to go in the third and completely dominated the rest of the match.

Make of that what you will.

I'm not saying that it will definitely happen this week - and yes i get you cant neatly draw a line between the two seasons.

But it is interesting info to consider and i'm certainly hoping that we will be stronger for longer this week than we have been in the last two games.    

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,024]

This is great! Thanks for putting it together @WheeloRatings :-)

On a similar vein, I came across this 'Equity Ladder' from BenCameron23 on Twitter.

It's what the ladder would look like if everybody faced each other just once. For any teams anyone plays twice, only the first result is taken into account. 

Very interesting! Basically, Richmond and the Saint swap places, and Sydney swaps with the Lions. 

TL; DR, we're doing OK, despite wobbles against the Pies/Cats/Freo/Sydney. 

 

Edited August 15, 2022 by Red But Mostly Blue

[tiers 2,784]

For years we consistently had more I50s but couldn't convert.

Last year we found the magic. This year it's lost again.

Where do we find it? Is it all about kicking to the left forward pocket instead of down the guts which worked for the last 2 goals on Saturday?

I know we shouldn't compare but in the GF Harmes kicked to the open side and Tracca kicked straight down the guts for the bounce. Is it time to bring out our best tactics?

GO DEES

[1964_2 2,357]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

Yep, will be a fascinating game. 

I have been looking at looking to last year for some parallels that could be drawn to this year to help me make sense of where we are at ,and where we might be heading.

In this corresponding match last year we were the team that ran over the top of the opposition, and a very strong one that at.

We came from 41 points down with 8 mins to go in the third and completely dominated the rest of the match.

Make of that what you will.

I'm not saying that it will definitely happen this week - and yes i get you cant neatly draw a line between the two seasons.

But it is interesting info to consider and i'm certainly hoping that we will be stronger for longer this week than we have been in the last two games.    

Very interesting. A huge 2nd half against the lions will do big things for  confidence (team and supporters) 

Although still not “running on top of the ground” I think it’s fair to say our run and intensity for the last 3 weeks has been significantly improved from the 1-2 months prior to that.

But, the part I under-estimated during our loading period, is some of the game style issues that were evident at the time, unfortunately won’t be resolved from fitness alone. 

Having said that, if we can run fourth quarters out better in the next few weeks, maybe that can  compensate for some of our other game style related challenges?