POSTGAME: Rd 21 vs Collingwood

[D4Life 2,523]

6 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

We did. Crisp and Lipinski caught dead cold. No free for either. Inconsistent at best, something else at worst.

After half time umpiring all one way!

[Fritta and Turner 4,522]

1 hour ago, binman said:

They are playing maxy up forward to cover the missing tall a bit, but to my eye he looks as if he is still carrying an injury. He was amazing lsdt night but doesn't seem to be able to elevate.

TBH I didnt think Max could elevate, injured or not.  Thats why Gawn/Jacko combo is important, 2 very different styles.

(And what is the point of playing Max up fwd if he cant kick.  In that facet of his game I thought he was a disgrace).

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

1 hour ago, Monocology said:

I love the first 2 seconds of a Saturday morning when you first open your eyes, admire the ceiling plaster, think 'ah the weekend' before the heart sinks.

Prime-time dee-pression.

The cracks look bigger this morning and some new ones too. Was there an earthquake overnight?

[Clintosaurus 7,861]

3 minutes ago, D4Life said:

After half time umpiring all one way!

To align with the narrative.

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

11 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

Outside of Essendon Fans, who complain every week, I can't think of many.

TWSNBN would complain regardless. 

[Clintosaurus 7,861]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

And Pendlebury

I knew there was another but could not think of who. Was it in front of goal?

[dees189227 12,398]

31 minutes ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

You’re tall Max but you’re not a [censored] Harlem Globe Trotter. Stop spinning the ball in your hands on your set shot routine. Much harder to hit a moving target. 

That does my head in. I know he's a ruckman not a ff but you never say Ablett, Lockett or Carey do that. People had a go about king from stkilda about his technique, someone should look at Max's

[chook fowler 19,533]

Some losses really get under your skin - and this is one of them. By all criteria we should of won. It was that lack of ruthlessness that Goodwin always bangs on about that was the major factor. Our backs lost concentration and were  way too loose. To compound the aggravation it is the Filth that has the wood on us. Last night was a real downer.

[Deenooos_ 647]

Anyone know the i50:Goal conversion rate? I think it's something like 22%

- If so, the pies went at 36% which is ridiculous. They should have scored 9.0 (54 points) from their 41 i50s.

- We on the other hand went at almost the average, 20%, should have kicked 14.3 (86 points)

Should have been a comfortable win.

I don't think luck is to blame either for their efficiency, our defence made it easy for them for some reason, we were the best at keeping opposition to low conversion rate entering our 50 last year.

[Fork 'em 6,991]

2 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

We consistently miss too many easy frikn critical goals . Gawn missed 3 of them FFS. Can’t have any player doing that let alone the skipper. But trac missed two he normally would get, 

Trac has kicked 16.27 this year.
He's a terrible kick for goal.
Has the yips something bad.

[D4Life 2,523]

29 minutes ago, binman said:

Lots of talk about our forward line, but we scored enough to win, even with the ridiculous number of gilt edge opportunities we burnt.

But as you say, our defence was the real problem.

They were clever how tbey spread our talls, and they moved it quickly - though not crazy quickly i didn't think.

Someone on this thread made the excellent point tbat Elliot stayed deep  which stopped may being an anchor, but it also dragged hiibo deep and we got no bounce from him. And Elliot killed him for good measure.

But leaving their tactics aside, all our defenders had mares.

May has been out of form for weeks and Lever looks injured (though I thought he did well on ginnivan). Hibbo had his worst game since coming back in, rivers look flat footed and Salem is nowhere near his best.

 

Elliott got three goals from frees from good tackles. 
 

Ball also went quickly into the defence on too many occasions, so pressure built, and tackling by Pies in forward half was very good!

Still they kick 13-8. we win.

We miss two less shots, we win!

 

Problems in addition to ordinary backline performance:

2nd half we got overrun!

Pies tackling pressure terrific, we need to match next time, particularly in forward half.

Jackson has been ordinary.

While Melksham has played his role, I can’t see us winning with him in team, I’d like to give JVR a crack!

[Demonstone 22,815]

11 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

To align with the narrative.

Did somebody say "one trick pony"?

[Fork 'em 6,991]

35 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

Melksham on Moore looked a big fail to me. Often Melk was where a KF should be positioned. And the players kicking inside 50 looked confused:- do I kick to an undersized forward, on a gun back, in the best position, or do I kick to someone near the boundary?  
 

I'd like them to kick to someone who's open.
I don't care if it's Kozzie, who often gets ignored for the deep pocket option.

[Macca 17,032]

Our backline is under extreme pressure as a result of how we go forward and how our forwards play.  Our forward entries lack quality and our forwards lack quality

Long bombs, no real defensive pressure up forward, a lack of marking power up forward and the ease that the opposition transition from their defence (our forward line) Intercept marks aplenty as we just don't compete in the air up forward

Nor do we have forwards who can gain separation in order to take hit-up marks

Out inside 50 count in terms of numbers doesn't tell the real story.  The eye test tells us that what worked last year is not working this year.  Our midfield dominance is stifled once we go forward

The other teams have done their homework on us and have picked apart our forward line and our forward entry style

Really need to change things up but in reality, we need better players in our forward line

Petracca to play forward (predominantly) Gawn to get to better spots up forward (not the boundary line) and Van Rooyen needs to get a call-up (replacing Melksham who didn't do enough)

Neal-Bullen or Spargo out as we can't have 3 small forwards not applying defensive pressure and also, not scoring goals.  Petracca up forward replaces the need to bring in Chandler or Bedford

Along with Kossie, all our forwards had enough opportunities last night but were found wanting.  And of course, the way the ball enters our forward line is a major problem as well

F     Van Rooyen  Brown  Kossie

HF   Fritsch    Gawn    Petracca

Spare forward ... Neal-Bullen or Spargo (not both)

 

[The heart beats true 18,145]

One of the things that frustrates me is our list management hasn’t favoured forwards. We’ve spent big coin on a backline, spent 10 years developing a midfield, but our forward line has always felt like an afterthought.

We’ve been lucky Fritsch came on, because without him we don’t have a competitive forward line. I’m so confused about Ben Brown. He’s playing a game style that has never been his strength.

We move the ball into our forward line in order to have the best field position to defend. That’s a good strategy if we can keep opposition to a low score. 2 of the last 3 games we’ve got into shoot outs. That tells me our game style is being exposed, and we are being out coached.

Our games are the opposite of last year now. After half time we get figured out, teams adjust and take us on through the middle with pace. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 minute ago, Deenooos_ said:

Anyone know the i50:Goal conversion rate? I think it's something like 22%

- If so, the pies went at 36% which is ridiculous. They should have scored 9.0 (54 points) from their 41 i50s.

- We on the other hand went at almost the average, 20%, should have kicked 14.3 (86 points)

Should have been a comfortable win.

I don't think luck is to blame either for their efficiency, our defence made it easy for them for some reason, we were the best at keeping opposition to low conversion rate entering our 50 last year.

The numbers suggest very similar inside 50 conversion result from us as last week against Freo.

The Pies just turned it on forward of center and their transition out of the goal square and off HB is very quick & slick. 

They sometimes also switch just back of the wing which you don't see many teams do very often.  Gives them diff angles of attack and time for the ball carrier to find a leading target.

They have two of the most accurate set shots for goal who work hard to get their marks on the lead in Elliot & Mihocek.

We also can't make the goals or kick one from downtown (around the paint) which allows oppo backman to set up slightly deeper and crowd our forward line as they don't see us as much of a threat higher up.

Rivers (not that he's a forward so not expecting him to), Fritsch, Melk, Maxy, Tracc & BB all had shots from around 50 last night and none were succeasful!

[Older demon 2,779]

Yes, we had enough of the ball and didn't convert but in my opinion, the issue is deeper than that.

Since TMac went down we have been shown that we lack marking targets up forward. Our goal to goal line and key forwards are lacking. Weird hasn't risen to the occasion, JVR is in his first season and who else is capable of playing a key forward role? We have been forced to rotate Max, Jacko and Brown as the key marking target. Max missed some sitters and Jackson has absolutely no impact up forward. Similarly, we lack ruck backup as there is no one at Casey who is a backup ruckman (Weid will get the gig). This is not fixable this season

Much has been said about the long kick to the goal square and its lack of success. That is due in part because the ball isn't coming to ground for the smalls to pounce, it ends up as an intercept mark to the opposition. If Max is down there he contests as does Brown but Jackson is playing like the 3rd year tall which he is and not only isn't marking he is getting out-marked. Opposition intercept marks end up transitioning deep into opposition forward lines.

Weeks out from finals TMac will try and play at Casey in the last round, but will we blood JVR (I doubt it) will Tomlinson or Joel Smith play up forward or will we persist and run the risk of god teams doing what the Bulldogs and Pies did? The forward marking options are pretty thin

[Fork 'em 6,991]

2 hours ago, dees189227 said:

 I mean go back a few weeks ago when they best Essendon with that final play. Pendles knew what to do. If we somehow got the ball in the dying moments we would have just bombed it.

 

They got lucky with an umpire decision that game as well.
Young Essendon player that missed his late set shot should have got 50m penalty after collingwood kicked the ball away after he was awarded the free.
Which would have put him in the goal square. 

[Lord Travis 10,763]

Really disappointed with the lost and feel like we’ve failed another test. We’re not as good as we were last year and we can’t seem to hold leads and run out games when the heat is on.

That said, Collingwood 2022 are the luckiest team in history. What they’re achieving is a statistically anomaly. Fans and media can bang on all they want about their spirit etc but data says they’re lucky and there’s no rhyme or reason for their winning. To be second on the ladder heading into the second last round with a percentage of 106 is mental.

No team has ever won a match when they’ve lost disposals by +80, clearances by 20+, inside 50s by 20+, contested possession by +20, uncontested possession by +50, contested marks +4,  same disposal efficiency. The only stats they won were tackles and free kicks. Last night was basically a statistical impossibility. If that game was played another ten times over they wouldn’t win again and would lose by an average of 6-7 goals most times. Credit to them for never giving up, but what they’re doing is luck and unsustainable. If they somehow win the flag, it can only be considered a miracle (or travesty). They are not worthy.

Anyway, we reload and go again against Carlton next week. They’ve been in pretty poor form, so if we lose to them then it’s real alarm bells leading into finals. We need to get back to our defensive gamestyle and take control of the game. No more shoot outs ever again for this team unless we recruit some serious front 50 weapons in future. 

[IRW 1,387]

Well as predicted BBB is way better than Weid but he isn't the big forward who can take the entries by the scruff of the neck and kick 5, or at least a clutch goal to win the game.

If the ball came into the forward 50 like it does and May was full forward my guess is it would take only a couple of weeks to get it sorted. 

We were never going to win when they apparently haven't trained to shut the game down or shift gears at the end to win/ save the game.

Coaching fail imo and no blooding of "tier b" players during the season.

Another coaching fail.

Someone also  needs to teach Kossi to time his speccies so he actually  catches it, or to stay down and add to his highlights reel by getting  the goal in play off the packs

Anyway I rememberwhen they won in 1964 ,coz I was high in the northern stand.

It was a close one

 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by IRW

[dees189227 12,398]

Well if we've woken up feeling like this then I hope the players are feeling it 100 times more.

I hope some players have spent the night going over in there head the easy goals they missed

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

12 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

I'd like them to kick to someone who's open.
I don't care if it's Kozzie, who often gets ignored for the deep pocket option.

That's correct.  We tend to always look for the same olds and if they're not there we go to the pocket.

The alternatives are there if we go quickly.  Sometimes directly in front or on the fat side but they're usually ignored early and by the time the kicker has taken so long to decide, the oppo is set and we again kick to the pocket.

Kozzie at one point down the Punt Road end was sitting in space 10 meters clear.  I'm not sure he lead but didn't have to.  Yes it was a risky kick but worth trying.  Instead we waited waited, the holes filled up as they do, and guess where we kicked to.  The most frustrating team to watch coming inside 50.

Much of this is on the players but some responsibility has to be accepted by the coaching staff for the lack of cohesion and low percentage (conversion possibility) & predictable nature of shanking ball into the pocket so often.  I would argue we may well be the worst team in the league, bar maybe North, with our work forward of center.  Including our woeful pressure rating.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[Fork 'em 6,991]

4 minutes ago, IRW said:

Coaching fail imo and no blooding of "tier b" players during the season.

The cupboards are pretty bare.
 

[The heart beats true 18,145]

1 minute ago, Lord Travis said:

Really disappointed with the lost and feel like we’ve failed another test. We’re not as good as we were last year and we can’t seem to hold leads and run out games when the heat is on.

That said, Collingwood 2022 are the luckiest team in history. What they’re achieving is a statistically anomaly. Fans and media can bang on all they want about their spirit etc but data says they’re lucky and there’s no rhyme or reason for their winning. To be second on the ladder heading into the second last round with a percentage of 106 is mental.

No team has ever won a match when they’ve lost disposals by +80, clearances by 20+, inside 50s by 20+, contested possession by +20, uncontested possession by +50, contested marks +4,  same disposal efficiency. The only stats they won were tackles and free kicks. Last night was basically a statistical impossibility. If that game was played another ten times over they wouldn’t win again and would lose by an average of 6-7 goals most times. Credit to them for never giving up, but what they’re doing is luck and unsustainable. If they somehow win the flag, it can only be considered a miracle (or travesty). They are not worthy.

Anyway, we reload and go again against Carlton next week. They’ve been in pretty poor form, so if we lose to them then it’s real alarm bells leading into finals. We need to get back to our defensive gamestyle and take control of the game. No more shoot outs ever again for this team unless we recruit some serious front 50 weapons in future. 

I’ve been saying the same thing about Collingwood all year, but after the first 6 minutes of the 3rd quarter, where we did all the attacking and couldn’t score, they completely out played us.

Last night reminded me of 2017-18. We had so many games in that era where we won every stat except the score line. We simply have to turn Jackson’s trade into a ready made contested marking forward.

We aren’t getting any return for effort forward of the ball and it’s demoralising and exhausting for the players.

[Deenooos_ 647]

8 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

The numbers suggest very similar inside 50 conversion result from us as last week against Freo.

The Pies just turned it on forward of center and their transition out of the goal square and off HB is very quick & slick. 

They sometimes also switch just back of the wing which you don't see many teams do very often.  Gives them diff angles of attack and time for the ball carrier to find a leading target.

They have two of the most accurate set shots for goal who work hard to get their marks on the lead in Elliot & Mihocek.

We also can't make the goals or kick one from downtown (around the paint) which allows oppo backman to set up slightly deeper and crowd our forward line as they don't see us as much of a threat higher up.

Rivers (not that he's a forward so not expecting him to), Fritsch, Melk, Maxy, Tracc & BB all had shots from around 50 last night and none were succeasful!

Yeh but Collingwood's conversion rate inside 50 hasn't been exceptionally good all season this was an outlier and far more due to fact how we were defending than how they were attacking from different angles.

Freo had the same i50 count last week yet scored 5 goals instead of 15, but of course their forward line also doesn't set the house on fire.