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CHANGES: Rd 13 vs Collingwood



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24 minutes ago, M_9 said:

Tmac told my mate tonight that a scan yesterday showed he has a lisfranc injury. Surgery this week.

That is not good. Full recovery can take up to a year based on WebMD. He may struggle to get back before next pre-season. 
 

But given he was named - probably means he trained to some extent so hopefully on the minor end🤞

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Melbourne

B: Lever, May, Hibberd

HB: Brayshaw, Petty, Salem

C: Langdon, Petracca, Jordon

HF: Neal-Bullen, McDonald, Pickett

F: Fritsch, M.Brown, Spargo

FOLL: Gawn, Oliver, Viney

IC: Bowey, Harmes, Sparrow, Jackson

SUB: Rivers

 

If McDonald doesn't come up play Weideman he should be carryover emergency anyway.

 

Casey 

B: D.Smith, Tomlinson, Buntine

HB: McVee, Turner, Hunt

C: Baker, Dunstan, Woewodin

HF: Melksham, van Rooyen, Chandler

F: Bedford, B.Brown, Moniz-Wakefield

FOLL: Daw, White, Munro

IC: Laurie, Grey, Ellison, Josh.Smith, Koo 

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Posted (edited)

Good luck trying to fix what is a flailing forward line along with those kicking/running in to it (who are also often to blame with terrible kicking and/or poor choices).

We are in desperate need of a pack marking/busting KF who can kick set shots or goals on the run as if they're shelling peas (assuming ball is delivered favourably more often than we see now).  And if not doing that at least bringing the ball to ground more often and getting involved also at ground level more often.

We dominated most of that 3rd quarter. 

Most sides, bar the bottom two atm, would've probably opened up a decent lead and gone into the last quarter with the wind in their sails and something like a four to five goal lead.  Instead we just keep leaving the door open.  Then,  having spent too many tickets, we can't manage to close said door in the final term.

Bro predicted that last quarter outcome about 2/3rds of the way through the third quarter.  We are becoming reliably unreliable up forward and with our forward craft in general.  We are our own worst enemy here and i just can't see where the solution will come from within the current list.

Weid had a decent first half but a fairly quiet second half with Casey.  Having said that will probably get the call up for BBB who hasn't fired a shot since he posted his interview about how lucky he was to have crossed from the lowly Roos into a premiership side last season.  One has to wonder if there's been a little complacency on BBB's account here and/or he's dined out on last year's result a tad too long.

One player i do like at Casey as a potential future medium sized impact forward is Ellison but he isn't on our list and untested at AFL level.  Regardless, surely there's someone lurking around (free agent?) we could snaffle for 2023 and beyond?

Having May back will probably help restrict many teams to a lower score but if our forward line fails to fire, the better teams will most likely continue to run over the top of us late far too often me thinks.  We rely too heavily on the May factor i  reckon which has glossed over some of the forward issues we have witnessed in his absence.

The Cats have one of the easiest fixtures  post the buy.   Can see them getting ahead of us if we don't solve our forward issues.  How annoying would that be.  We have to play them at the Cattery in Rnd 17 as well.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Red and Blue realist said:

If TMac is really done for the season then bring in Weid and play him for at least the next 6 games.  He's been better than BBB, and offered more than M.Brown, but time to see if he will really make it and not change him in and out all the time.  

I could not disagree more. Weeds aint the answer! I would rather play Majak!

Edited by picket fence
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, picket fence said:

I could not disagree more. Weeds aint the answer! I would rather play Majak!

Majak would at the least bring the ball to ground and not get out muscled as often in the one on ones including most of the ruck contests.

Desperation stakes but could we bring him in for Benny this werk & plonk him at CHF when not taking the hit outs in the middle?

I would be worried once the ball hits the deck but Maxy aside that's probably true of most of our big fellas on this list. 

Jackson wasn't too bad at ground level earlier in the year here but seems to have lost his mojo as soon as the pressure gets turned up (plenty of mates).

Weids looked very vanilla after half time in the ressies.  Unable to bring a high level for more than a quarter or two regardless of which comp he's in and runs under the contest/ball far too often/drops too many overhead sitters (and thats at VFL level).

Other than Macca we just don't have a genuine KTF who can stand up under heat on the big stage at the mo.  JVR is not the answer as a KF either.  Might make a decent 3rd tall given time.   Need to look elsewhere for a KTF and set ourselves up for 2023 & beyond.  Keep on keeping on with this same line up and we'll be here talking bout the same old problems again this time next year (against the better clubs).

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Rivers May Hibberd in

Tomlinson Gus and Salem to play more of an offensive role

outs

M. Brown Hunt and one of the half forwards

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Ins. 
clean ball handling

scoring power 

Connection forward of Centre 

outs. 

sloppy little handballs to ankles or missed 

kicking to the forward pockets instead of the “hotspot”(top the square)

tackling over the shoulder 

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I agree Ellison shows promise - so did Turner, and Hibberd improved as the game went on.  Rivers made some mistakes maybe, but he also looked AFL standard.

 

I think we have lost our fitness advantage.  Partly from illness, but our game plan is giving away that advantage that we had.  Allowing so many chaIns of unpressured possessions gives the opposition  breathing space and confidence in their skills.  I think I understand our defence strategy, but when we are getting so badly outmarked by big forwards, it just gives easy goals away.  The loss of May - and injuries to Petty - mean we cannot use our defensive lock-down.  We are too east to get through, with our inability to stop their gorillas taking forward line marks, so we need (I think) to stop the free transition down the ground leading to unpressured passrs to advantage on their forward line.

If ayers are still not fully recovered from illness, it's an understandable gamble to play rhem.  Tracc looked good, but ultimately lacked power: he was not fully himself.  Ben Brown likewise.  Sooner or later they will be on top again.

 

I thought Mitch Brown showed enough to be kept.  But Majak Daw has physical presence, and can take a pack mark - even late in the game - so I think we need him.  Also, I don't understand our not looking to go forward through Kozzie.  He is electric, and unanswerable.  Our tall forwards are far too easily countered.  Use the strengths we have! For that reason, i'd like to see Bedford in.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, robbiefrom13 said:

I thought Mitch Brown showed enough to be kept.  But Majak Daw has physical presence, and can take a pack mark - even late in the game - so I think we need him.

M. Brown was below average and realistically shouldn't play another AFL game for MFC. Daw has NO defensive presence at all and significantly struggles fitness wise to maintain any sort of defensive structure. 

Edited by Ham
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I agree Ellison shows promise - so did Turner, and Hibberd improved as the game went on.  Rivers made some mistakes maybe, but he also looked AFL standard.

 

I think we have lost our fitness advantage.  Partly from illness, but our game plan is giving away that advantage that we had.  Allowing so many chaIns of unpressured possessions gives the opposition  breathing space and confidence in their skills.  I think I understand our defence strategy, but when we are getting so badly outmarked by big forwards, it just gives easy goals away.  The loss of May - and injuries to Petty - mean we cannot use our defensive lock-down.  We are too east to get through, with our inability to stop their gorillas taking forward line marks, so we need (I think) to stop the free transition down the ground leading to unpressured passrs to advantage on their forward line.

If ayers are still not fully recovered from illness, it's an understandable gamble to play rhem.  Tracc looked good, but ultimately lacked power: he was not fully himself.  Ben Brown likewise.  Sooner or later they will be on top again.

 

I thought Mitch Brown showed enough to be kept.  But Majak Daw has physical presence, and can take a pack mark - even late in the game - so I think we need him.  Also, I don't understand our not looking to go forward through Kozzie.  He is electric, and unanswerable.  Our tall forwards are far too easily countered.  Use the strengths we have! For that reason, i'd like to see Bedford in.

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7 hours ago, CYB said:

That is not good. Full recovery can take up to a year based on WebMD. He may struggle to get back before next pre-season. 
 

But given he was named - probably means he trained to some extent so hopefully on the minor end🤞

It's more likely that he had a dull pain there and thought he could play through. The diagnosis on Saturday morning then forced their hand.

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Ham, what you say about Daw may be true, but we were outmarked badly.  Defensive pressure is irrelevant when they have marked the ball.  Daw can take a mark, and he can halve the contest rather than being simply outmarked.

 

In yestday's Casey game he took a very strong pack mark in the last quarter, imposing himseld - and dished it off very nicely.  His fitness issues did not prevent him from achieving what none of our forwards could in the main game.  No-one's percect, but his contribution could improve the balance overall.  Let the Kozzies of our forward line apply the defensive pressure once Majak has brought the ball to the ground.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, praha said:

Imma give this take a Kent Kingsley Award. Not sure which award specifically but it deserves some sort of recognition. It really is a special take.

Sam Reid surely gets the gong for the Kent Kingsley Award for Spuds who perform well against us. Might've been one of the all time great KKA performances. A performance worthy of a starting gig in our forward line. If only we had the mid season trade period...

Edited by John Demonic
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Posted (edited)

Changes should always improve a side.

Our backs are in no drastic need of improvement, but regardless, this will occur naturally with Mays inclusion. Tomilson is no fullback (we recruited him as a wing option) but still a good 3rd tall option - allowing flexibility of one of Petty, May, Lever to be considered forward.  Swans exposed Hunts defence (isolated one out), which also allowed them to push their forwards/wingers up the ground and cramp our forward line. Other teams will try and follow this - though May coming back, it may not be as effective considering he plays a goal keeper role.

The Swans and Dockers also showed how to stop us from scoring and it's simple actually, clog up the space in our forward line preventing our marking targets from leading to the "v" in front of goal (our smalls are pressure players not leading/marking options), then pressure the midfield to force a long kick (seems to be our preference, rather than lowering eyes going into the 50).  Tmac, was crucial to this as he competed in the air, allowing our pressure smalls and midfielders a chance at ground level - which also puts pressure on their backs and midfielders; and consequently restricting their ability to run off and transition the ball quickly. Petty may help here, otherwise Gawn seems next best. Fritsch is a third tall and should not be considered as a KPF. Note Gawn forward weakens our midfield play, as Jackson doesn't do enough in the air around the ground.

Our midfield loves to run out the front of the contest, but unfortunately this means if theirs get there hands on the ball first we are exposed to a quick clearance. Teams have worked this out to and are defending our front, and using the release handball to move the ball forward from the back of the contest.

May is an obvious in, and M Brown an out - he's the same type of player as his namesake (so is Weids).  

Also having a small as an emergency seriously exposes us if a tall is injured - Hibberd or Rivers would be better suited 

 

Edited by Ungarieboy
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, robbiefrom13 said:

Ham, what you say about Daw may be true, but we were outmarked badly.  Defensive pressure is irrelevant when they have marked the ball.  Daw can take a mark, and he can halve the contest rather than being simply outmarked.

 

In yestday's Casey game he took a very strong pack mark in the last quarter, imposing himseld - and dished it off very nicely.  His fitness issues did not prevent him from achieving what none of our forwards could in the main game.  No-one's percect, but his contribution could improve the balance overall.  Let the Kozzies of our forward line apply the defensive pressure once Majak has brought the ball to the ground.

Blind Freddy can see that we need a pack busting KPF with TMAC out of the team. If not Daw, then we perhaps need to re-visit Gawn/Jackson being the 2nd tall KPF/ruck relief, resting in the forward line while the other one rucks, and bringing in another small forward like Bedford or Chandler that can give us more defensive pressure and also come up into the midfield to help out.. So it's the 4/2 system. Although really its 3/3 as Fritsch plays that 3rd tall marking forward.

Edited by John Demonic
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I'd look at this.  If Tom is out for a lengthy spell then we need another avenue to goal.  Petty is the man.

B: Lever, May, Hunt

HB: Brayshaw, Tomlinson, Salem

C: Langdon, Petracca, Jordon

HF: Neal-Bullen, Petty, Pickett

F: Fritsch, B.Brown, Spargo

FOLL: Gawn, Oliver, Viney

IC: Bowey, Harmes, Sparrow, Jackson

SUB: Rivers/Bedford

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I'll now consider easing Turner into the backline and experimenting with Petty up front. I know it's early and Turner has only recently returned from injury, but he's been a standout for Casey as that intercepting mark that Petty excels at. There are a number of players who are not performing as well as they did last year, and nearly all of them have the same role as last year, with the exception of Brayshaw, Jordon, and Hunt. Over the next month, it may be time to introduce some new players to some of those roles, such as Turner, Laurie and possibly Van Rooyan.

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May would have played on Papley, and out marked him twice to stop 2 goals, and we win. He makes us a 3-4 goal better side.

My issue is around the ball. Petracca has been ordinary for 2 months. He’s not chasing, and doesn’t have that explosiveness. He’s obviously been injured and then sick. If he’s down, and Jackson’s down, and Sparrow, ANB and Spargo aren’t clean enough it’s too much for Max and Clayton to carry. 

I don’t think we can bring in anyone to change us around the ball. We just need to look at our shape and our cleanliness. 

May for Tomlinson.

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9 hours ago, MrFreeze said:

If Tmac is out, i want to play Weed as the solo KPF with Max and Jacko floating through as required. Fritta is our best forward and i would love another medium tall in the team to tag along with him but frankly we dont have one. Hunt had a shocker but has played the role well in the past, maybe a mid can be used here. 

Regardless both browns do not deserve to retain their spots, team structure be damned. Bedford deserves to be in over many in the team as he shows real desire and passion where others are lethargic and slow. 

 

 

 

One of the good things about Bedford is he's not afraid to actually have a shot on goal. Nibbler and Spargo poo their pants every time they get the ball inside 50.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, robbiefrom13 said:

I agree Ellison shows promise - so did Turner, and Hibberd improved as the game went on.  Rivers made some mistakes maybe, but he also looked AFL standard.

 

 

Thought Rivers was still off even at that level Robbie.  Could be a week or more away before finding decent form but might be wrong and just MV.

48 minutes ago, robbiefrom13 said:

Ham, what you say about Daw may be true, but we were outmarked badly.  Defensive pressure is irrelevant when they have marked the ball.  Daw can take a mark, and he can halve the contest rather than being simply outmarked.

 

In yestday's Casey game he took a very strong pack mark in the last quarter, imposing himseld - and dished it off very nicely.  

I cant recall many marks outside of the one you mentioned but yeh it was a solid  genuine pack mark.   Thats one more than most took yesterday aside from Maxy.

I do agree he would probably halve an aerial contest most of the time though.  People saying he is pretty poor defensively and will get shown up when we don't have the ball are correct but isn't that what BB has been bringing the last four games anyway?  Barely fired a shot  old Benny.  Put any body on him and he's done cause he isn't leading for some reason and instead seems to want to play  from behind and from deep in the square.

I have to say our forward craft, outside of Fritsch, is woeful.  Does any of this fall on the coach Stafford or?  The other areas are playing their part to some degree although the constant bombing from mids & HBs is shizen as well as the lack of defensive running by some of the mids.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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9 hours ago, RedFox said:

I have a left field idea. What about throwing Petty forward? He started there in his career and looked decent. We know he can take a mark, we know he's competitive when the ball hits the deck. Leave Tommo in, drop Ben Brown, swing Harry forward

That's not a bad idea at least Petty can take a pack mark.

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2 minutes ago, leucopogon said:

One of the good things about Bedford is he's not afraid to actually have a shot on goal. Nibbler and Spargo poo their pants every time they get the ball inside 50.

Nibbler pretty much shanks to the left every time.  Do we roll the die against the Pies and bring Bedford in for Nibbler or Sparrow to hit the scoreboard a little more often and bring some speed through the middle?  Mid field looks really pedestrian/flat footed of late other than rare cameos from Kozzy.

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