TEAMS: Rd 08 vs St. Kilda

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

4 hours ago, binman said:

No he wasn't.

The stat he used was pressure, ie all ground pressure - not forward pressure. 

He didn't even mention inside 50 pressure.

You might be right about our forward half pressure, but then again you may not be. The eye test is not always that accurate

For example we are 16th in total tackles.

But we are basically equal third in average tackles inside 50 (Giants are top with an average of 12.3 per game, blues second on 12 per game, Freo on 11. 4 and us and the Swans on 11.3 per game). That's pretty good pressure inside 50.

My stats are from this excellent site:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

10th overall in pressure act averages till now (courtesy of the above site).

We will more than likely need to crank the pressure side up (outside of forward 50 pressure which is still strong as you have highlighted) as the year progresses given we are sitting 10th on pressure act averages at the moment vs 5th overall in 2021.   Having said that we are not far off in this regard anyway, only averaging approx 7 less pressure acts a game so far.  Relatively easy to make up as needed i would think.

[deejammin' 2,373]

5 hours ago, binman said:

Weed out is an interesting one.

If we were playing a prelim on Sunday i'd pick Tmac becuase, head to head with Weed, he is a better footballer at this point in time.

Impacts more contests, creates more goals, works harder, is stronger, blocks more and offers positional flexibility as he can go back (though do like Weed in the ruck)

So I'm in camp Tmac.

But i acknowledge he seems to have lost a yard of pace this season, and he wasn't fast to begin with.

And i also acknowledge that  there is not a huge difference stats wise between the two this season. 

So, i would have been tempted to stick with Weed for the next few weeks as he will develop more in the ones i reckon, and get Tmac to work on his pace somehow back in the twos (perhaps on the back of a BBB style mid season preseason).

My logic is that might be the best way to ensure both are in the best possible form come finals. 

All that said happy or Tmac to be in the side.

It certainly suggest the coaches don't think Tmac was selfish last week.

I'm guessing they also didn't mind him kicking that goal after the sire in the GF! 

I think stats wise the key point of difference between Tom and Sam is their defensive effort. Tom averages 1 tackle (below average), .8 inside 50 tackles (average) and 11.2 Pressure acts (above average). Sam 1.2 tackles (below average), .4 inside 50 tackles (below average), 5.4 pressure acts (below average). 
Tom is not setting the world on fire defensively, but Sam is barely registering any pressure at all. It’s visible in how he plays sadly, once he misses the mark or lead he’s out of the play. Both of them need to do work on their intensity and pressure around the ball and I’d suggest this will be Sam’s main area to concentrate on back in the VFL. Hopefully Sam can lift as he’s actually a very good tackler, but at the moment Tom is doing more of the defensive bullocking work and that’s why he’s back in. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by deejammin'

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

3 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Sorry, poor choice of words on my part. I'm not suggesting TMac is hopeless in defence, just that he is a liability in the sense that he's not as good as our other tall defenders IMV (which is why he was only moved there after in-game injuries). You mention we are giving Sam an inside run to improve and grab a spot in the forward line. How? By dropping him and leaving a guy in the side who was only playing last week because Jackson was out with COVID? I recognise TMac has the advantage of being able to be moved into defence in an emergency. Likewise Weideman could be moved into the ruck in an emergency. But IMV their secondary abilities should not be a deciding factor for either of them being in the team

Plugga's value in the team is enhanced by his ability to not just play in defence in an emergency.  Yes he could even pinch hit for Lever's intercept role if needed at some point IMV (hopefully only a short term emergency stop gap as we saw earlier this season).

But in general, when he is asked to play higher up the ground, he is probably more versatile/capable in terms of reading the play / intercept marking than say the Weid.  And thats not to say Weid is abysmal in this area either.  Im just not sure he is as capable / reliable here?  Purely subjective view on my part so take it with a grain of salt.

Jackson coming back in gives us another high leaping option up forward when he isnt giving Max an assist in the middle and he also has the ground ball smarts &  ground ball getting ability that say a Weid / Plugga don't have as much of.  Jackson covering the chop out role for Max kind of puts Weid as the 2nd stringer back up to Jackson here.

So provided plugga is performing to some reasonable standards asked by the FD (i would guess over a block of 3 games or so at least) if Jackson is fit / available and BB is also ripe and fit, Weid is unlikely to get the preferential nod over plugga IMHO.  At least for the remainder of this season anyway (assuming all of the above).

Edited May 6, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

While i do hope the Weid is able to keep improving as this year progresses, all the constant tooing & froing between who is the better option got me thinking in the last week or so.

Plugga aint a young fella of course and this could be his final season.  And lets just say for whatever reason Weid doesn't quite make grade over the next while...

Where's our next 'Very Talented' medium to tall multiple goal kicking forward coming from?  And i don't really see this as Van Rooyen in the next few years given he has only just started his apprenticeship.  He is probably at least 3 season's away from having a significant impact.

So who do we target?  Has to be an existing mature player IMO.  While i'm not suggesting this player as he isn't available, i am thinking similar size / skill set and multiple goal kicking capabilities / talent eg; Finlayson

Who else might be out there we could make a play at towards the end of this season for 2023??  One of the Norf boys maybe ie;  Larkey?

Edited May 6, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[Jjrogan 1,439]

1 hour ago, deejammin' said:

I think stats wise the key point of difference between Tom and Sam is their defensive effort. Tom averages 1 tackle (below average), .8 inside 50 tackles (average) and 11.2 Pressure acts (above average). Sam 1.2 tackles (below average), .4 inside 50 tackles (below average), 5.4 pressure acts (below average). 
Tom is not setting the world on fire defensively, but Sam is barely registering any pressure at all. It’s visible in how he plays sadly, once he misses the mark or lead he’s out of the play. Both of them need to do work on their intensity and pressure around the ball and I’d suggest this will be Sam’s main area to concentrate on back in the VFL. Hopefully Sam can lift as he’s actually a very good tackler, but at the moment Tom is doing more of the defensive bullocking work and that’s why he’s back in. 

Stats wise Tmac can actually take a mark. Weeds problem has beeen the same for 6 years. He's a key forward. The best key forwards take marks, either uncontested or contested. Sam does neither consistenly well.  2 marks in 2 games.  Thats not mental. That's ability.  Up until now in his career, he's too easy to defend. He's not overly fast, sly or strong.  His ground ball pressure doesnt help but if he was clunking 5 or 6 marks a game it would be overlooked.  Its a harsh assessment, but the exposed evidence is there. 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Jjrogan

[Deedubs 157]

6 hours ago, DubDee said:

3 or 4 teams were a big chance to beat us?

yeah nah. We’ve barely been pushed

Essendon (10 points up with 8 mins to go), Hawks (10 points), Gold Coast (2 goals). This is being pushed, bottom line. This late in the game you're relying on umpires, ball bouncing your way and good play. You don't played for 3.5 quarters of footy only to be 10 points up.  That aint by design. 
 

[Big Col 1,347]

12 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Essendon (10 points up with 8 mins to go), Hawks (10 points), Gold Coast (2 goals). This is being pushed, bottom line. This late in the game you're relying on umpires, ball bouncing your way and good play. You don't played for 3.5 quarters of footy only to be 10 points up.  That aint by design. 
 

Yeah. Nah. 
Not once this season have I thought we were going to lose. It sounds weird saying this but I'm hoping for a team that can challenge us. Where are they?

[Guest]

A week premature, but the Weid/Tomald forward-line tinkering debate has been going on for more than a year now and is getting a bit tedious. Neither are delivering. Can we maybe just try a whole new combo for the WC-NM matches and bring in Daw or van Rooyen or both and see how it goes alongside BB and Fritsch? I even have more faith in Mitch Brown than both of Weid and Tomald nowadays. He's taken 26 marks in his last three games. Weid has taken six. 

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

7 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

10th overall in pressure act averages till now (courtesy of the above site).

We will more than likely need to crank the pressure side up (outside of forward 50 pressure which is still strong as you have highlighted) as the year progresses given we are sitting 10th on pressure act averages at the moment vs 5th overall in 2021.   Having said that we are not far off in this regard anyway, only averaging approx 7 less pressure acts a game so far.  Relatively easy to make up as needed i would think.

so that's less than 2 a quarter... or 8 pressure acts over 2 hours.

Hmmmmmm

[dazzledavey36 55,312]

4 hours ago, Skuit said:

A week premature, but the Weid/Tomald forward-line tinkering debate has been going on for more than a year now and is getting a bit tedious. Neither are delivering. Can we maybe just try a whole new combo for the WC-NM matches and bring in Daw or van Rooyen or both and see how it goes alongside BB and Fritsch? I even have more faith in Mitch Brown than both of Weid and Tomald nowadays. He's taken 26 marks in his last three games. Weid has taken six. 

Certainly wouldn't hurt to try something different. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

51 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

so that's less than 2 a quarter... or 8 pressure acts over 2 hours.

Hmmmmmm

Yes seems pretty gettable 😄

I guess if you extrapolate all that over an entire season and add every week's minor  aberage shortfall up then you are down a fair amount vs some opps and it might eventually catch up with you in the odd close game.

However, with the return of some key players and others hopefully getting back to their more normalised match fitness / form in the coming weeks eg;  Lever, Rivers, Petty, Viney, Sparrow, Jackson,  ANB and Kozzie you would think there will likely be a slight uptick in pressure acts/one percenters etc organically anyway.

I don't see it as an issue and super confident the FD and even some of the leaders will be aware of such things already and monitoring standards going forward.

[picket fence 17,469]

17 hours ago, chook fowler said:

Just watched a replay of the Hawks game - Melksham is stiff to miss, whilst he didn’t star he definitely contributed. Likewise Dunstan. Bedford showed plenty and Smith was solid before injury. I feel for them all because none of them deserves to be dropped. 

Thats what happens when you bat deep and have just won the first of many premierships chook!

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

7 hours ago, Deedubs said:

Essendon (10 points up with 8 mins to go), Hawks (10 points), Gold Coast (2 goals). This is being pushed, bottom line. This late in the game you're relying on umpires, ball bouncing your way and good play. You don't played for 3.5 quarters of footy only to be 10 points up.  That aint by design. 
 

 

Some of the closer results above mostly came down to not having a settled forward 6 & getting ourselves back to somewhere near our best mix here IMV.

Once we see a more settled forward six that's  able to play together consistently while also getting somewhere near full match fitness doing so.

With the return of BB a few weeks back and now Jackson/Kozzie coming back from H&S, the FD can now run with their 'preferred' front 6 and hopefully we see things start to gel a little better in the forward half and the scoreboard do the same.

Mind you, having so many players out and now retruning it could take another two to three weeks before we see that forward line really start to click.  So this week is still, potentially, looking like a bit of a danger game.   However, if that 6 did click this week i would be thinking a 6 to 10 goal thumping of the Aints is also a possibility.

Right now i believe we are playing a slightly improved version of our 2021 brand (asside from the forward 50 aspects) which has of course seen us go 7-0.

IF the forward 50 phase of our game gets its mojo happening (hopefully in the next two to three weeks) and the rest of our game stays somewhere near the level we've seen till now,  might wanna strap yourseves in folks as we could be about to witness some pretty crazy performances from this group.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[sue 9,126]

7 hours ago, Deedubs said:

Essendon (10 points up with 8 mins to go), Hawks (10 points), Gold Coast (2 goals). This is being pushed, bottom line. This late in the game you're relying on umpires, ball bouncing your way and good play. You don't played for 3.5 quarters of footy only to be 10 points up.  That aint by design. 
 

 

7 hours ago, Big Col said:

Yeah. Nah. 
Not once this season have I thought we were going to lose. It sounds weird saying this but I'm hoping for a team that can challenge us. Where are they?

Yeah, yeah.  In most of those games I also was not really worried we'd lose, but to dismiss those close results as meaningless or saying we were resting or whatever, strikes me as being unwise.  If you let teams get close ot you in the last couple of minutes you are risking a loss because of an unlucky bounce or an umpires bad call.  The coaches and team know that and know we need to bank 4 points.  So the inability to get so far ahead that there is no risk poses questions which I fear are being too lightly dismissed by some.  Let's hope the coaches know what's going on.

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

6 hours ago, Skuit said:

A week premature, but the Weid/Tomald forward-line tinkering debate has been going on for more than a year now and is getting a bit tedious. Neither are delivering. Can we maybe just try a whole new combo for the WC-NM matches and bring in Daw or van Rooyen or both and see how it goes alongside BB and Fritsch? I even have more faith in Mitch Brown than both of Weid and Tomald nowadays. He's taken 26 marks in his last three games. Weid has taken six. 

Was surprised by Weid's absence this week simply because they know what they get from TMac and it hasn't been great for nearly a year.

Found the naming of Laurie on the extended bench interesting.

 

[Lucifers Hero 40,310]

22 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

...but what does 'defence of ball movement' mean and what elements are measured in that stat?

I'm guessing it includes things like:  opps goal to goal ball movement and a score maybe with us touching it or maybe not, turnovers when they have the ball, intercepts, turnovers when we have the ball...?

Any clarification would be appreciated. 

Then I can work if I should be worried...🤔

Any one have ideas or info on what this measure means or how it is calculated?

Edited May 7, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[deejammin' 2,373]

9 hours ago, Jjrogan said:

Stats wise Tmac can actually take a mark. Weeds problem has beeen the same for 6 years. He's a key forward. The best key forwards take marks, either uncontested or contested. Sam does neither consistenly well.  2 marks in 2 games.  Thats not mental. That's ability.  Up until now in his career, he's too easy to defend. He's not overly fast, sly or strong.  His ground ball pressure doesnt help but if he was clunking 5 or 6 marks a game it would be overlooked.  Its a harsh assessment, but the exposed evidence is there. 

 

Well, stats wise actually they’re both pretty poor on marking. I think that’s your perception but the stats don’t actually bear that out. Here’s the facts:

TMac averages:

3.8 Marks

1.7 inside 50

.8 contested

.7 marks on a lead 

.2 intercept

Weid:

3.2 Marks

1.6 inside 50

1.4 contested

.2 Marks on a lead

0 intercept 

As you can see Tom takes a fraction more marks, which are mainly on a lead or behind the ball, he is below average on contested marks. Sam takes less marks on a lead and hasn’t played backline to take intercept marks but is average for contested marks and well ahead of Tom on that stat. Overall I don’t think it’s marking that is separating them, I’m sure the FD would like both players to mark the ball more and drag their stats to average or above average for marking but atm Weideman is the only one with an average marking stat (contested). The difference is pressure.

Edited May 7, 2022 by deejammin'

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

5 minutes ago, deejammin' said:

Well, stats wise actually they’re both pretty poor on marking. I think that’s your perception but the stats don’t actually bear that out. Here’s the facts:

TMac averages:

3.8 Marks

1.7 inside 50

.8 contested

.7 marks on a lead 

.2 intercept

Weid:

3.2 Marks

1.6 inside 50

1.4 contested

.2 Marks on a lead

0 intercept 

As you can see Tom takes a fraction more marks, which are mainly on a lead or behind the ball, he is below average on contested marks. Sam takes less marks on a lead and hasn’t played backline to take intercept marks but is average for contested marks and well ahead of Tom on that stat. Overall I don’t think it’s marking that is separating them, I’m sure the FD would like both players to mark the ball more and drag their stats to average or above average for marking but atm Weideman is the only one with an average marking stat (contested). The difference is pressure.

This backs up my call (and Skuit's) earluer that we need to start looking for another Key tall forward for 2023 and beyond.  And someone who is a bit of a dead eye in front as well.

Imagine this team with say a Mihocek running around.

Be nice to find a mature age nugget out there similar to Geelong with Pods as a marure age rookie at #50 in 2009 (Premiership team 2011).  Yes i know they don't grow on trees and other  clubs are looking also but would be a very handy get if we could.

[Demon17 5,191]

16 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Are you serious? I acknowledge the excellent shepherd. I also acknowledge his 2 goals in the last quarter, the 1st of which was  a result of a brilliant pass from Petracca (we were already 49 points in front and had the game won). The last was a result of a pass from Nibbler. Unlike others, I think he was totally within his rights to take the kick after the siren and I would have been disappointed if he didn't take it and treat it seriously. One shepherd doesn't make you an all-time great. If it does then the entire team including JJ who didn't make it onto the ground are all all-time greats. No problems with that.

yes I am, and yes it does.

In  a package of the games highlights our grandchildren will watch in 2052, THAT shepherd will be one of them.

Tom's a great in that context.

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Was surprised by Weid's absence this week simply because they know what they get from TMac and it hasn't been great for nearly a year.

Found the naming of Laurie on the extended bench interesting.

 

Rest assured we know what we'll get from Weid also.

[jnrmac 20,154]

On 5/6/2022 at 11:16 AM, Sydney_Demon said:

So TMac fortuitously (undeservedly IMV) comes back in, has a so-so game and then gets rewarded while Weideman adapts his game as asked, also has a so-so game and gets dropped. TMac did that nice move on the boundary line which ended up as a goal (fortunately, TMac's kick was a shocker), he took 5 marks and kicked 2 goals (as we all know it should've been 4/1). Weideman only took 1 mark but kicked a nice goal, made 4 tackes, 6 hit-outs & 1 clearance (TMac 1/1/0). It seems to me that people posting to this site consistently apply different standards to Weideman than they do to TMac. There's a lot more upside for Melbourne with Weideman improving his game and becoming a key member of the side than there is for TMac hanging on for another season. He's hardly about to take his game to a new level. I'm not saying Weideman necessarily is going to make it either but give him another couple of weeks, and if TMac doesn't make a compelling case to be in the seniors bring Van Rooyen in (he definitely has an up-up-upside 😁).

The problem for you is that you have no idea what TMac was told to work on or what he was expected to do.

You are making guesses based on stats. The footy dept looks well beyond that.

[faultydet 7,619]

20 hours ago, Garbo said:

Feels like only one position has really been in play all year and that is 2nd tall fwd 

Good take.

Weid has had his chances and failed to play a standout game, although I admit he has shown some improvement at times. Van Rooyen just needs to keep putting his name in front of the selectors and he could be wearing a medal come September.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

34 minutes ago, faultydet said:

Good take.

Weid has had his chances and failed to play a standout game, although I admit he has shown some improvement at times. Van Rooyen just needs to keep putting his name in front of the selectors and he could be wearing a medal come September.

Promising signs with enough time in the system but personally dont think he's quite ready for a full on stint at the big league yet.

Would need to have a run of very good to outstanding performances at VFL to be seriously considered by the brains trust and (for mine) i've yet to see anything  that suggests he is bringing that sort of level till now.  That could change of course between now and Sept.  Stranger things have happened.

[BAMF 4,385]

13 hours ago, Deedubs said:

Essendon (10 points up with 8 mins to go), Hawks (10 points), Gold Coast (2 goals). This is being pushed, bottom line. This late in the game you're relying on umpires, ball bouncing your way and good play. You don't played for 3.5 quarters of footy only to be 10 points up.  That aint by design. 
 

Hawthorn were behind by 5 goals at the final break. Let's count them out.

1. Tom Mitchell kicked a goal at around the 5min mark.

2. They got another at just after half way through the quarter.

3. They kick one more with 1 minute to go which reduces the margin to 10 points.

4. Didn't get.

5. Didn't get.

The margin was irrelevant. We had put a big lead up and controlled the game to make time the enemy of our opposition. We have played this way for 2 seasons.

Sam Mitchell even mentioned in his press conference that we had control of the game and the 10 point margin flattered them (paraphrasing).

Fyi - disagreeing with you isn't 'Slamming' you.

[Macca 17,032]

On 5/6/2022 at 3:59 PM, Macca said:

The eye test says we are happy to close down attacking play in the final quarters (after building up a decent lead by 3/4 time) ... we tend to not use the corridor and are happy to progress around the boundary line. Not always of course but there is a trend that way

The opposition team then needs to switch play away from that congested wing (and flanks) ... but unless those teams can switch quickly (with clean possession) they then end up facing the same wall on the other side of the ground.  A bit like how Clarkson's Cluster used to work

If the opposition want to use the corridor they run the risk of turning the ball over.  So we play risk-free footy and leave it up to the other teams to take the risks

And if teams want to progress through the congestion they are playing into our hands.  Another boundary line stoppage often results while time is eaten up

In the end, we are saving our legs as well (playing along the boundary late in the games)

All year our 4th quarters have been quite identical

 

A mate also mentioned that we don't play on from a free or mark when we are in lockdown mode

Tempo footy, Demon style

I'm not sure that the opposition are aware of when we make the switch either