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How important is luck in influencing a result?

La Dee-vina Comedia
La Dee-vina Comedia
in Melbourne Demons

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This is a very interesting analysis which essentially argues luck has more influence in close games than one would think.

As a friend of mine (a former mathematics teacher) pointed out, it's why Ross Lyon coached games were more prone to the influence of luck than a Simon Goodwin coached game. Why? Because in a low scoring game, the element of luck becomes even more influential. (Stephen Milne and an unfortunate bouncing ball immediately comes to mind.)   

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    Need to play in such a way there is less ability for “luck” to have an influence. If Saints are 74 points up, Milne’s bounce less relevant. 
     

    Interestingly after shock Crow loss last year, Goodwin wasn’t dwelling on dodgy umpire decision,  rather - “how we let them back into it after three goals up with two minutes left”. 

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    1 hour ago, radar said:

    Goodwin wasn’t dwelling on dodgy umpire decision,

    Two dodgy umpire decisions. Not that I'm dwelling.

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    Good teams don't rely on luck, they seem to manage to get the job done. However in a knockout final luck can have more of a consequence for obvious reasons. Wonder how Brisbane felt in their finals loss to the Dogs.

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    There’s no such thing as luck. If would only exist if certain interpretations of quantum mechanics are true, namely that causality is not deterministic. This would require ‘physical’ determinism to be true and if this were the case, then it would mean every event that occurs is entirely predictable. Thoughts? 

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    8 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

    There’s no such thing as luck. If would only exist if certain interpretations of quantum mechanics are true, namely that causality is not deterministic. This would require ‘physical’ determinism to be true and if this were the case, then it would mean every event that occurs is entirely predictable. Thoughts? 

    Luck isn’t tangible, sure, it’s not scientific. It’s the philosophical reaction to causality and it’s effects on life. Doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. One could argue that simply by debating its existence we have made it exist

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    36 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

    There’s no such thing as luck. If would only exist if certain interpretations of quantum mechanics are true, namely that causality is not deterministic. This would require ‘physical’ determinism to be true and if this were the case, then it would mean every event that occurs is entirely predictable. Thoughts? 

    Yeah, nah.

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    What is often mistaken for luck is taking full advantage of favourable situations eg. a ball bounce, an unexpected kick off the ground, being in the right position when a mistake is made by the opposition and many other scenarios.

    Potentially fortunate situations occur frequently, but only those who are alert to the chance and are able to take advantage are considered lucky.

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    Well it stands to reason. Luck more likely to stand out in a close game, and a low scoring game is more likely to be close than a high scoring one. Lyon, being a dour coach who would win games with 10 goals for (our defence thinks 10 goals against is a satisfactory result!) is therefore more likely to suffer, or benefit, from luck.

    What is luck in Aussie Rules anyway? With an oval ball and 360 degree movement, all kinds of crazy things happen constantly. Mostly forgotten by the final siren, unless it happens in the last two minutes. Score lots and you're subject to a lot less "luck", be it good or bad.

    GO DEMONS!!!

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    2 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

    There’s no such thing as luck. If would only exist if certain interpretations of quantum mechanics are true, namely that causality is not deterministic. This would require ‘physical’ determinism to be true and if this were the case, then it would mean every event that occurs is entirely predictable. Thoughts? 

    African or European?

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    Good preparation to take full advantage of the “lucky moment” is vital, as is  mental preparation to put the “bad luck moment” behind you and move on. 

    I believe it was Jack Nicklaus who once said “the more I practice the luckier I get”. 

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    3 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

    According to the inimitable Ray Charles, "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all".

    Albert King thank you very much!

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    3 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

    Albert King thank you very much!

    Albert wrote that lyric in his song "Born Under A Bad Sign" before Ray wrote a song with that title, so I guess that makes you technically correct (which, as we all know, is the best kind of correct!).

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    Luck is a massive player! for the fun of it I thought I’d list a few  areas where I reckon luck can influence a result. 

    1./ Injuries. Yes  as part of this there is also conditioning, commitment to fitness, capacity to play thru pain etc and yet this element very much exists. Who gets injured at what point  of a game or season is critical. What’s creates being at precisely the Wrong place at the wrong time etc .  

    2./ Missing easy shots for goal. If you think a player might kick a certain goal say 98% of the time, and they miss and that effects the result. yes, bad kicking is bad football … and you can practice all you want but you can never be perfect. When the imperfections happen is important. 19 points down in the GF , fritsch marks a perfect kick. If he’d missed that shot could life be different now? I don’t know that answer… but it’s a question . 

    3./ Bad umpiring decisions that lead directly to goals.

    4./ On a more macro level there’s also draft picks. yes identifying talent plays a major part etc etc. but even the genius of Taylor picks Weid ahead of McKay. StKilda picks McCartin missing out on Trac. etc These clearly influence results. 

    5 / Again on a more macro level. trading. Did anyone really see Langdon, Lever, Tomlinson being as good as they are. Plenty of trades go south for the very same  reasons ours went north. 

    We can argue forever about fate vs choice and hard work. i’m certainly not saying it’s a binary thing . The later is responsible fr maybe 97% of success, but I do believe luck ALSO plays  a decent part . Many people like to believe they 100% control of  all aspects of their lives but for mine it’s no more true personally than it is in football. To argue against luck is to see yourself as seperate to a huge universe with its 1 million causes and effects. 

     

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    Just now, Demonstone said:

    Albert wrote that lyric in his song "Born Under A Bad Sign" before Ray wrote a song with that title, so I guess that makes you technically correct (which, as we all know, is the best kind of correct!).

    So if I were to tell you that Albert didn't actually write that song, what kind of correct does that make me? Bent needle correct, that's what.

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    Just now, Demonstone said:

    I stand doubly corrected!  Let me tell you, it's not a comfortable stance.

    They say Hitler was only singly corrected, so you can't be too badly off.

    (According to internet forum rules, I have now lost this thread.)

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    “The cord that tethers ability to success is both loose and elastic. It is easy to see fine qualities in successful books or to see unpublished manuscripts, inexpensive vodkas, or people struggling in any field as somehow lacking. It is easy to believe that ideas that worked were good ideas, that plans that succeeded were well designed, and that ideas and plans that did not were ill conceived. And it is easy to make heroes out of the most successful and to glance with disdain at the least.

    But ability does not guarantee achievement, nor is achievement proportional to ability. And so it is important to always keep in mind the other term in the equation—the role of chance.”

    ― Leonard Mlodinow, The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
     

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    What about the old saying, it’s amazing how the harder you train, the more you get lucky?

    In the John Northey era, my recollection is that we used to sometimes get belted and occasionally – not very often – would give sides a belting, but if the game was close, we would almost always win. The team just knew how to force the ball forward and something would happen, and how to stop o

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    On 3/25/2022 at 7:08 PM, Wells 11 said:

    Luck is a massive player! for the fun of it I thought I’d list a few  areas where I reckon luck can influence a result. 

    1./ Injuries. Yes  as part of this there is also conditioning, commitment to fitness, capacity to play thru pain etc and yet this element very much exists. Who gets injured at what point  of a game or season is critical. What’s creates being at precisely the Wrong place at the wrong time etc .  

    2./ Missing easy shots for goal. If you think a player might kick a certain goal say 98% of the time, and they miss and that effects the result. yes, bad kicking is bad football … and you can practice all you want but you can never be perfect. When the imperfections happen is important. 19 points down in the GF , fritsch marks a perfect kick. If he’d missed that shot could life be different now? I don’t know that answer… but it’s a question . 

    3./ Bad umpiring decisions that lead directly to goals.

    4./ On a more macro level there’s also draft picks. yes identifying talent plays a major part etc etc. but even the genius of Taylor picks Weid ahead of McKay. StKilda picks McCartin missing out on Trac. etc These clearly influence results. 

    5 / Again on a more macro level. trading. Did anyone really see Langdon, Lever, Tomlinson being as good as they are. Plenty of trades go south for the very same  reasons ours went north. 

    We can argue forever about fate vs choice and hard work. i’m certainly not saying it’s a binary thing . The later is responsible fr maybe 97% of success, but I do believe luck ALSO plays  a decent part . Many people like to believe they 100% control of  all aspects of their lives but for mine it’s no more true personally than it is in football. To argue against luck is to see yourself as seperate to a huge universe with its 1 million causes and effects. 

     

    In fact, three out of four options give lousy outcomes. All of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, being in the right place at the wrong time and being in the wrong place at the right time all produce less than optimal results. Sometimes it does take some luck to be in the right place at the right time.

    Essentially, what I've just written above is the basic plot structure of your standard rom-com.

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    On 3/25/2022 at 6:31 AM, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    This is a very interesting analysis which essentially argues luck has more influence in close games than one would think.

    Unless you already think luck can have a lot of influence in close games (like I do).

    It always baffles me that people can be so negative after a close loss (or so bullish about drawing positive conclusions following a narrow win).

    Way too much is made of things like mental toughness or maturity when people talk about close games, because it's not really about the last few minutes - they make sense to us as pivotal plays or clutch moments because humans like narratives, but we too easily discount the little moments in the couple of hours before that

    Edited by Rogue

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