Farewell Luke Jackson

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,054]

13 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

No.

I think Jackson long term will be a talent. I just don't see him being the generational talent that everyone sees.

Career so far he's rated below average for hitouts won, hitouts to advantage, clearances and. 

I think he has poor forward craft and gets lost quiet easily when resting down there which is where he'll spend time when rotating with Sean Darcy.

Ashcroft, Sheezel, Cadman Wardlaw I see being more natural footballers with more upside to be genuine game breakers.

 

I agree with this comment.

A generational talent is someone in the mould of Wayne Carey, Gary Ablett (senior or junior), Greg Williams, Chris Judd or Tony Lockett.

In Carey’s 21st year (same age as LJ) he kicked 46 goals and won North’s best and fairest. In the following year Carey took the AFL by storm by kicking 63 goals and being appointed the All Australian captain. 

Meanwhile Jackson is still finding his way in this league and finished a generous 13th in the B&F.

Do people honestly think that Jackson is going to obtain the lengthy achievements that the other players mentioned above did? Is he really going to be a generational talent?

 

[Adam The God 30,539]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I agree with this comment.

A generational talent is someone in the mould of Wayne Carey, Gary Ablett (senior or junior), Greg Williams, Chris Judd or Tony Lockett.

In Carey’s 21st year (same age as LJ) he kicked 46 goals and won North’s best and fairest. In the following year Carey took the AFL by storm by kicking 63 goals and being appointed the All Australian captain. 

Meanwhile Jackson is still finding his way in this league and finished a generous 13th in the B&F.

Do people honestly think that Jackson is going to obtain the lengthy achievements that the other players mentioned above did? Is he really going to be a generational talent?

 

But hang on. I didn't say LJ was necessarily a generational talent. Dazzle said he wasn't better than any of the draft crop this year. Who. Have. Never. Played. A. Game. Of. AFL. Football.

Luke Jackson was instrumental in the greatest burst of AFL football perhaps ever witnessed. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I agree with this comment.

A generational talent is someone in the mould of Wayne Carey, Gary Ablett (senior or junior), Greg Williams, Chris Judd or Tony Lockett.

In Carey’s 21st year (same age as LJ) he kicked 46 goals and won North’s best and fairest. In the following year Carey took the AFL by storm by kicking 63 goals and being appointed the All Australian captain. 

Meanwhile Jackson is still finding his way in this league and finished a generous 13th in the B&F.

Do people honestly think that Jackson is going to obtain the lengthy achievements that the other players mentioned above did? Is he really going to be a generational talent?

 

I tend to agree. With gen talent you see flashes of brilliance throughout the early years that show us they know how to play the game. Once their body matures and they get fitter, those flashes are seen more consistently. Think of Oliver’s first season - we knew we had something special. 
 

LJ is a good footballer but I’m starting to think he is not as great as we all thought. Every player has a great game now and then. LJs just happened to coincide to be in the third quarter of a GF. Just like Weeds 2018 finals performance.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,054]

4 minutes ago, A F said:

But hang on. I didn't say LJ was necessarily a generational talent. Dazzle said he wasn't better than any of the draft crop this year. Who. Have. Never. Played. A. Game. Of. AFL. Football.

Luke Jackson was instrumental in the greatest burst of AFL football perhaps ever witnessed. 

But others have certainly coined the term  “generational talent” with Jackson. That’s fair enough but I think it’s too early   to make the assumption.

As for his GF performance, yes he played a very good last few minutes of the third quarter. No debate there.

[mo64 5,881]

4 minutes ago, A F said:

But hang on. I didn't say LJ was necessarily a generational talent. Dazzle said he wasn't better than any of the draft crop this year. Who. Have. Never. Played. A. Game. Of. AFL. Football.

Luke Jackson was instrumental in the greatest burst of AFL football perhaps ever witnessed. 

I suggest you re-watch it, and tell us which plays Jackson was instrumental in.

He was involved in some, but it was primarily due to our mids winning contested possession, and the Dogs players fumbling or falling over at inopportune times.

And even if he was largely instrumental, 15 minutes isn't a good measurement of a players quality. Zaine Cordy had an impactful 2016 GF, and hasn't amounted to much.

[whelan45 203]

Hypothetical trade if Hawks get Bowes and pick 7 from Suns.

Hawks: In: 13, Meek.   Out: 7

Freo: In: Jackson.   Out: 13, Future 1st, Future 2nd (North), Meek

Dees: In: 7, Future 1st, Future 2nd (North) Out: Jackson

Are Freo giving up too much? I think Jackson is worth a lot, the future picks effectively the equivalent of a top 10 future pick.

[dazzledavey36 55,453]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Despite never having seen them play at AFL level and Jackson breaking the game open in a GF? We'll agree to disagree mate.

Think this actually gets overblown a fair bit..

I just have more faith the guys who I have mentioned will turn out to be more rounded and well equipped to have better careers then Jackson because they're natural footballers who do show qualities that are similar to a Petracca, Jeremy Cameron and a Selwood. Big statement yes, but I'm happy to stick by this.

And let's be honest, the early pick we get for Jackson, aren't we hoping they turn out to have better careers then him?

Right now, Jackson is more of an athlete then footballer. He has enormous potential which I can see no doubt and don't worry I'm still disappointed to lose him, but all I see is another Mark Blicavs type who's handy plugging in holes in the ruck and burst in the midfield.

Also think where the game is going there's a changing of guard in terms of the types of ruckman that are running around. These dudes are alot taller and physically bigger then I've ever seen before. Jacko being 199cm tall is almost considered on the short side now and just wonder if he'll ever be that dominant ruckman that everyone hopes for. 

Gawn, Grundy, Witts, English, Draper, McInerney These guys are example of the current ruckman running who are just taller and more physically bigger then Jacko is.

Jacko certainly has the athletic ability to keep up but wonder if this will the downside of being a shorter type ruckman.

[Adam The God 30,539]

8 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Think this actually gets overblown a fair bit..

I just have more faith the guys who I have mentioned will turn out to be more rounded and well equipped to have better careers then Jackson because they're natural footballers who do show qualities that are similar to a Petracca, Jeremy Cameron and a Selwood. Big statement yes, but I'm happy to stick by this.

And let's be honest, the early pick we get for Jackson, aren't we hoping they turn out to have better careers then him?

Right now, Jackson is more of an athlete then footballer. He has enormous potential which I can see no doubt and don't worry I'm still disappointed to lose him, but all I see is another Mark Blicavs type who's handy plugging in holes in the ruck and burst in the midfield.

Also think where the game is going there's a changing of guard in terms of the types of ruckman that are running around. These dudes are alot taller and physically bigger then I've ever seen before. Jacko being 199cm tall is almost considered on the short side now and just wonder if he'll ever be that dominant ruckman that everyone hopes for. 

Gawn, Grundy, Witts, English, Draper, McInerney These guys are example of the current ruckman running who are just taller and more physically bigger then Jacko is.

Jacko certainly has the athletic ability to keep up but wonder if this will the downside of being a shorter type ruckman.

We're trying to make the best out of a poor situation. We'd rather LJ was staying and playing for us. Now we're trying to get the best deal for the club.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

There is minimal risk with LJ. There is always risk involved in going to the draft. Plenty of top 5 picks have not made it. 

[Davos 923]

8 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Think this actually gets overblown a fair bit..

I just have more faith the guys who I have mentioned will turn out to be more rounded and well equipped to have better careers then Jackson because they're natural footballers who do show qualities that are similar to a Petracca, Jeremy Cameron and a Selwood. Big statement yes, but I'm happy to stick by this.

And let's be honest, the early pick we get for Jackson, aren't we hoping they turn out to have better careers then him?

Right now, Jackson is more of an athlete then footballer. He has enormous potential which I can see no doubt and don't worry I'm still disappointed to lose him, but all I see is another Mark Blicavs type who's handy plugging in holes in the ruck and burst in the midfield.

Also think where the game is going there's a changing of guard in terms of the types of ruckman that are running around. These dudes are alot taller and physically bigger then I've ever seen before. Jacko being 199cm tall is almost considered on the short side now and just wonder if he'll ever be that dominant ruckman that everyone hopes for. 

Gawn, Grundy, Witts, English, Draper, McInerney These guys are example of the current ruckman running who are just taller and more physically bigger then Jacko is.

Jacko certainly has the athletic ability to keep up but wonder if this will the downside of being a shorter type ruckman.

I think it's impossible to make this call without having seen any of them play a game at AFL level. Give me the proven commodity with superstar upside over the man child key forward who dominated less developed opposition, the explosive kid who missed almost all of his draft year but averaged like 23(?) disposals a game when he did play and the crafty mid forward with athletisism concerns.

[mmwd6 227]

2 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

An interesting development.

Freo have included their F3rd pick with the Logue/Tucker trade to North.

This means they cannot trade out their F1st without getting a F3rd back in as a F1st can only be trade if the club holds a pick in each of the F rounds..  They might get a F3rd back from GCS for the player(s) they want to trade in but not sure they have anything to offer GCS to start with.

It would be just like Bell to trade picks that means a fair deal can't be struck for LJ. 

They will just have to trade out Lobb or LJ goes to WCE!!! 

They have North and Carlton's F3rd.

[Lucifers Hero 40,426]

Just now, mmwd6 said:

They have North and Carlton's F3rd.

Thank you.  I shall delete my post.

[dazzledavey36 55,453]

1 minute ago, Davos said:

I think it's impossible to make this call without having seen any of them play a game at AFL level. Give me the proven commodity with superstar upside over the man child key forward who dominated less developed opposition, the explosive kid who missed almost all of his draft year but averaged like 23(?) disposals a game when he did play and the crafty mid forward with athletisism concerns.

Jesus the word 'superstar' gets abused far too easily on here..

When I think of superstar I think of Dusty, Bont, Oliver, Cripps of the world.

LJ hasn't showed anything remotely close to being potentially in the same calibre as these guys.

[Axis of Bob 11,875]

3 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Gawn, Grundy, Witts, English, Draper, McInerney

At 21 years old (which Jackson only just turned), these are the averages of those players.

Note that Grundy played mostly solo ruck, whilst Witts and English played only 7 games each that season (with English being pushed out by Tom Boyd and Jordan Roughead as the WB rucks).

 

If we compare them with their age 20 years (which Jackson played 2022 as): 

English played 2 games and Grundy played 15.

[DeeSpencer 26,091]

13 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Mark Blicavs type who's handy plugging in holes in the ruck and burst in the midfield.

Also think where the game is going there's a changing of guard in terms of the types of ruckman that are running around. These dudes are alot taller and physically bigger then I've ever seen before. Jacko being 199cm tall is almost considered on the short side now and just wonder if he'll ever be that dominant ruckman that everyone hopes for. 

Gawn, Grundy, Witts, English, Draper, McInerney These guys are example of the current ruckman running who are just taller and more physically bigger then Jacko is.

Gawn and perhaps English are the only players on that list coordinated enough to genuinely trouble a matured Jackson in marking contests. 8cm or so is fairly easy to defend if you’ve got positioning, leverage and athleticism.

A lot of them might trouble him in the ruck but once he hits full strength I don’t think being shorter hurts. Hawkins forward,  Nankervis, Mumford, you don’t need height for most ruck contests. And he keeps his leap it won’t be an issue at all.

Either way I expect him to be a top 3 ruck from ages 23-30+ if that’s how he gets used.

But it’s the Blicavs stuff that’s key. Blicavs this year went from Mr Fix it to an absolute weapon. He’s a beast at tagging powerful mids because he’s just so large. He provides another long kick option that keeps Jezza and Hawkins at home. And he can ruck from the midfield that means Stanley can sit wherever he wants.
 

He completely changes the basic maths on where you can use players. He’s worth more than any ruck aside from a dominant Gawn or Nic Nat. Every other ruck can be nullified by a half decent veteran.

If a team is a ball movement team Blicavs rucks and Stanley sits at CHB. If a team is a stoppage team then Blicavs tags the key mid. If a team is built on intercepts Blicavs becomes the long kick target away from the intercept defenders. His impact on games massively outweighs his pure talent. 

[Davos 923]

5 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Jesus the word 'superstar' gets abused far too easily on here..

When I think of superstar I think of Dusty, Bont, Oliver, Cripps of the world.

LJ hasn't showed anything remotely close to being potentially in the same calibre as these guys.

Are Max and Grundy (at his peak) superstars? How's he tracking comapared to those guys at the same age, just so we're comparing apples to apples and not ruckmen to midfielders.

To be more reasonable, how's he going compared to other dominant key position players at the same age? Of the current crop, I reckon most people who know what they're talking about would take Jackson over any other player in the comp, other than maybe Sam De Koning and Max King. 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder I guess, but I think many of our fans have been blinded by this year where his performance was clearly hampered by injury.

[The Jackson FIX 3,218]

2 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Because they only have to have a better deal than Freo. 

Exactly. They’re just waiting to see what Freo can come up with before they make their play.

[Red and Blue realist 2,058]

Interesting article, not just on Jackson but using various data sets what the players are likely to produce compared to what the average player taken at the corresponding pick will produce. Jackson they have at pick 2 (same as kozzie) while both Oliver and Trac better than pick 1 - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-04/why-noah-anderson-is-the-most-valuable-player-in-the-afl/101498378 

 

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,639]

28 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

He completely changes the basic maths on where you can use players. He’s worth more than any ruck aside from a dominant Gawn or Nic Nat. Every other ruck can be nullified by a half decent veteran.

This is the key

Ruckmen rucking is irrelevant. It's what else they can do. No team can carry a second ruck who does not demand a top 22 position somewhere else on the ground

[Demonland 73,266]

 

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,084]

Would rather us have 2 top 10 picks than say just pick number 2 or 3

[Pennant St Dee 13,315]

8 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

I’d take that but it won’t happen 

[Supreme_Demon 3,903]

7 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Hahahahaha! 😁😆😅🤣😂

I like that deal! Draft picks 6# and 7# would be excellent. A cheeky suggestion by Adam Cooney!

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

I don't think Dogga has found his best role (as opposed to position) within the Melbourne side. Is he best competing in the ruck contest, or roving around as a tall, competitive  mid or kicking goals deep? We all see his potential and upside, but we don't know how far that will extend. With maturity and experience he will find that role and hopefully become the star that people talk of.

That is what we are trading upon, not that he is comparable atm to Grundy, Carey,  Dusty or Gawn

[mmwd6 227]

43 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

West coast ruled out using pick 2 straight for LJ. No way they give up pick 2 and 20 lol.