PF: Melbourne vs Geelong

[Earl Hood 6,082]

CH7 News saying someone is injured from today’s training session, more detail to come in their sports report😡???

 

False alarm, 7 with a long range camera lens picked up ANB with a strapped calf walking to or from the training session today! This will go on all week I suppose. 

Edited September 5, 2021 by Earl Hood
Update

[Demonland 71,203]

 

[DubDee 25,509]

32 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

I mean seriously, I get we're all vibing this week, but it's not even a argument to suggest Hawkins & Cameron are a better combo than McDonald and Brown.

No one is saying that. You’re arguing with yourself

[Chook 15,012]

Hawkins and Cameron are clearly ahead of McDonald and Brown, but I'd take Fritsch over Rohan easily.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Chook

[Big Col 1,347]

45 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

I haven't seen the segment, but you said in your post he was referencing the tall forwards.

Maybe I'm on my own here, but I certainly 'would die for' Cameron and Hawkins in our forward line. We'd be unstoppable.

They're both very good players and would get a game ahead of TMac and Brown if they were in our side. 

[John Crow Batty 8,860]

11 minutes ago, Chook said:

Hawkins and Cameron are clearly ahead of McDonald and Brown, but I'd take Fritsch over Rohan easily.

They shut down our key forwards and we shut theirs down then we are likely to outscore them easily through other channels. 

Edited September 5, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Anyone know who’s injured? It’s 6.54pm and I’m panicking (9 mins past the 6.45pm apparent report).

As an aside, I’ll kill myself if we lose to Geelong. I just won’t be able to handle watching their smugness after the final siren.

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by Ron Burgundy

[Mickey 4,646]

1 minute ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Anyone know who’s injured? It’s 6.53pm and I’m panicking.

As an aside, I’ll kill myself if we lose to Geelong. I just won’t be able handle watching their smugness after the final siren.

 

 

There's another thread. Nibbler has a corked calf  apparently MFC not concerned

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Phew.

Sorry to be paranoid - but we’re actually playing for sheep stations here.

And I want a sheep station.

 

[D4Life 2,436]

7 hours ago, FlashInThePan said:

I think your point was addressed in the original post. There is home ground and then there is Kardinia park. It’s shape and weather make it a very difficult place for visiting teams. Add to that the normal  HG advantage that it is virtually impossible for visiting fans to get tickets and you have a crowd factor very like Adelaide and Optus. 
 

The post you are responding to was spot on. That advantage seems to contribute heavily to their home and away result. You can tell because their finals record tells a very different story. Either the home ground is a big factor or the game style doesn’t stack up under pressure. Nothing else explains the discrepancy.

 Regardless, we are going to tear this crew a new one.

Aside from home ground advantage, they have a salary cap advantage- as real estate is cheaper in Geelong & surrounds compared to Melbourne and come home factor that seems to lure star players back at under the odds money!

Still professionally run club, that make finals year in year out!

Demons should be ideally prepared to deliver our best and that should be enough to beat the Cats next week!

[loges 6,767]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Hawkins Rohan and Cameron averaged 2.3 goals per game between them

Fritsch McD and BB average 1.9 goals per game.

So their (tall) "forward line to die for" managed to score 0.4 goals per game more than Melbourne.

I don't see 2.4 points a game as much of a difference

You have to factor in they are playing against the best defence also.

[Jaded No More 68,855]

I’m definitely not confident about this game, but I will say that in our last final we faced the highest scoring team in the competition and kept them to 9 goals. 

[I'va Worn Smith 971]

I know it was discussed earlier in this thread, but are Geelong 'protected' by the AFL as, other than the Gold Coast, they are the only regional side in competition?

Hawkins and Selwood are repeat offenders, yet time and time again, the MRO finds they have no case to answer.  Are they simply clumsy or clever at disguising their clearly 'illegal' challenges on opponents?

Will it take a serious injury to a player, before these guys are sanctioned (see Maysie)?  If so, then it would be negligent.  The AFL should be on notice.  If these guys believe they can continually get away with dangerous actions with impunity, they will continue.

[Gorgoroth 12,911]

Don’t worry about the umps, don’t worry about the cats. 
if we bring our game and play to our ability we win. It’s up to us.

[picket fence 17,020]

1 hour ago, Chook said:

Hawkins and Cameron are clearly ahead of McDonald and Brown, but I'd take Fritsch over Rohan easily.

Sheeit give me Fritsch ( Mayfair) over Rohan ( Old Kent Road) ANYDAY

[Deemania since 56 6,605]

2 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

As mentioned mate, Fritsch is a ton better than Rohan. In my post I went on to compare just the actual 'talls' given that was the context binman referred to.

So in the interest of relevance:

Hawkins & Cameron - 5.1 goals per game

TMac & Brown - 3.2 goals per game

I mean seriously, I get we're all vibing this week, but it's not even a argument to suggest Hawkins & Cameron are a better combo than McDonald and Brown.

Don't get me wrong though, I think Brown and TMac could very well be part of a premiership team.

Reasoned. My thinking reveals that it is now time for the forward line to augment one another and establish some scoring power from familiarity with teammates that we have never seen before, plus, TMac is primed and due for a change in his own fortunes, by returning to the form required as an opposition threatening forward now we are in the deep end of a season of change. He has 'come back' up forward many times, across many seasons and he is match fit right now! He ain't too bad at bringing the ball to ground, either - perfect for our ever-improving smaller forwards and utilities.

The leads of Brown down the field are ideal in creating space in the midfield-forward zone and in the hot zone, plus he is doing much to mop up loose gaps before him. He is a roaming target for our backs and midfielders for considerable durations during recent games - opposition sides are not expecting to see a utility/ruck rover role from Brown - and he has done these stints really well over the past month, getting better at the tricks each game

Carna Dees!

 

[Deemania since 56 6,605]

1 hour ago, Earl Hood said:

CH7 News saying someone is injured from today’s training session, more detail to come in their sports report😡???

 

False alarm, 7 with a long range camera lens picked up ANB with a strapped calf walking to or from the training session today! This will go on all week I suppose. 

Must be decoy-time. 

[titan_uranus 24,964]

20 hours ago, Stein9193 said:

I don't know what kind of crazy intel you have but what makes you think they are going to go tall and do the precise thing that we excel at? You're off your rocker if you think that.

What makes me think it is that they just won a final playing that forward line, having lost two straight games to finalists (us Round 23, Port first final) trying the smaller forward line.

Who replaces Ratugolea if they want to revert back to the forward line that lost them those games? They dropped Dahlhaus because he's out of form. Higgins couldn't even get a medi-sub gig this week.

11 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Agreed.

Oddly, Scott said Optus suited their style of play.  Yet, this was the first game they have won there in several attempts.  Maybe he was pumping up his player's confidence. Optus might suit their game but it suits ours better. 

And we have won several games there vs the Eagles and the crowd.  We can draw on that for confidence.  

Like you I think that whatever positives Geelong take out of playing at Optus ours trumps theirs.

I know you missed their Fremantle win there this year but remember how after Round 23 Scott said it didn't matter because they were playing in Adelaide regardless?

He's a master of spin. Whether it's to project positivity on his players, or he's delusional, or whatever else, I don't read anything into it. There's no way Geelong didn't care about playing Brisbane at the Adelaide Oval as compared to Port, and so I put no stock into him saying they like Optus.

[titan_uranus 24,964]

11 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I know some on here are pretty confident against the cats, but for me I just have this uneasy feeling that losing twice to us during the season won't sit well with this Geelong outfit. Scott is a very smart and tactical coach. They would have taken so much learnings out of the last game and I expect a much sound response.

They've also improved their side since the last round. They'll have Duncan, Touhy and potentially Higgins. Watched Touhy Friday night and he just makes them so much better off half back and wing.

I have it in the back of my head that it was only 3 weeks ago this same Geelong team were 44 points up. So when up and going they can be at their deadly best. 

The other thing to look at is their track record at optus stadium is actually pretty good. Much better record then ours. 

I know they are a bit banged up, but they always seem to find a ways to get into this position.  Their finals record under Scott is phenomenal even though the wins haven't been on their side. 

Geelong is a strong side no doubt, but don't get too worried about it.

If Scott's so smart and tactical, he would have learnt something about their ball movement from when we beat them the first time this year. But they played the precise same way again in Round 23.

I also expect we'll have learnt plenty about the bad parts of Round 23. We won't be seeing them waltz out the front of repeated centre stoppages, and without that Geelong didn't look like scoring in Round 23.

I'm not sure about their "phenomenal" finals record under Scott, either. They're 7-14 since the 2011 flag. They've only won more than one final in a season once (last year). They've had some seriously non-competitive losses, too: this year vs Port, their 2018 EF loss to us, they had two 50+ finals losses in 2017, the 2016 prelim where they were 7 goals behind Sydney at quarter time, the straight sets 2014 finals exit.

Personnel-wise, Tuohy is a huge inclusion for them, but don't forget they lost O'Connor, a handy defender. Duncan's looked cooked in both of his games back so far, whilst Higgins is dropped, not injured, and just can't get a game (same with Dahlhaus).

Look, Geelong are dangerous no doubt. They were clearly one of the four best sides in it this year and for all our amazing football this year we finished 1.5 wins in front of them, needing a kick after the siren to beat them in Round 23 after having been 44 points down. But there's a lot of MFCSS in our thinking that we're in trouble. We shouldn't feel that way. They should feel that way. They made the GF last year and took their squad and added Cameron, Smith and Higgins to it. They went all in for a 2021 flag. The pressure is squarely on them.

[Demon17 5,184]

9 hours ago, layzie said:

Helps a lot. As I said I don’t think this group is rattled at all by this kind of task, it’s just nervous fans like me that use stats like this to worry!

But these are all the positive affirmations I’m going to be telling myself every day this week :)

The team isn't the problem.  Do you think Oliver and Gawn and Viney and their mates will stand for a poor showing against the cats? Not likely.

We are the issue here.

But then I saw Jimmy Stynes cross over the mark in 1987 right in front of me at Waverley.

[Demon17 5,184]

3 hours ago, Big Col said:

They're both very good players and would get a game ahead of TMac and Brown if they were in our side. 

Dees forward line is the sum of parts - not just two very good players that can both be stopped.

Cats small forwards can't hold a candle to our team forward defence and scoring capacity. Not forgetting  Ed Langdon - highest scoring wingman this year in the AFL

[titan_uranus 24,964]

it's been a while since Geelong beat a good side.

I'd argue they haven't done it since Round 14 when they beat the Dogs (with a kick after the siren, at GMHBA).

[Demon17 5,184]

5 hours ago, Pates said:

Unless I’m mistaken Optus Stadium is also basically the same dimensions as the MCG. Definitely an advantage it not being at KP but there can be no illusions about the cats, they have the experience and know how to win in these moments. 

That said, if we play our best we win. 

Theyv'e won only a single Prelim out of their last 6.

It won't be Selwood letting them down, he's a proven leader who gives all he can, its against their bottom 6 where our bottom 6 (whoever they are, because I don't think we have any in the definiton of the term) will will bring home the bacon.

[dazzledavey36 54,146]

25 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Geelong is a strong side no doubt, but don't get too worried about it.

If Scott's so smart and tactical, he would have learnt something about their ball movement from when we beat them the first time this year. But they played the precise same way again in Round 23.

I also expect we'll have learnt plenty about the bad parts of Round 23. We won't be seeing them waltz out the front of repeated centre stoppages, and without that Geelong didn't look like scoring in Round 23.

I'm not sure about their "phenomenal" finals record under Scott, either. They're 7-14 since the 2011 flag. They've only won more than one final in a season once (last year). They've had some seriously non-competitive losses, too: this year vs Port, their 2018 EF loss to us, they had two 50+ finals losses in 2017, the 2016 prelim where they were 7 goals behind Sydney at quarter time, the straight sets 2014 finals exit.

Personnel-wise, Tuohy is a huge inclusion for them, but don't forget they lost O'Connor, a handy defender. Duncan's looked cooked in both of his games back so far, whilst Higgins is dropped, not injured, and just can't get a game (same with Dahlhaus).

Look, Geelong are dangerous no doubt. They were clearly one of the four best sides in it this year and for all our amazing football this year we finished 1.5 wins in front of them, needing a kick after the siren to beat them in Round 23 after having been 44 points down. But there's a lot of MFCSS in our thinking that we're in trouble. We shouldn't feel that way. They should feel that way. They made the GF last year and took their squad and added Cameron, Smith and Higgins to it. They went all in for a 2021 flag. The pressure is squarely on them.

All good points mate.

It's certainly the MFCSS kicking in for me. Certainly think the battle will be won in the midfield and defence for us to break away.

I also think we'll take a lot out of round 23. I watched highlights from that game and I think May will play a good lock down role on Hawkins. Few times Hawkins used his smarts to get away from May. 

I also would hope we've tightened our stoppage work also. Hearing Yze on radio yesterday say they'll put considerable time into making sure it doesn't happen again gives me some confidence. 

[titan_uranus 24,964]

3 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

All good points mate.

It's certainly the MFCSS kicking in for me. Certainly think the battle will be won in the midfield and defence for us to break away.

I also think we'll take a lot out of round 23. I watched highlights from that game and I think May will play a good lock down role on Hawkins. Few times Hawkins used his smarts to get away from May. 

I also would hope we've tightened our stoppage work also. Hearing Yze on radio yesterday say they'll put considerable time into making sure it doesn't happen again gives me some confidence. 

Hawkins is amazing but I'll be pretty surprised if May gets beaten like that again. 

I'll be far more surprised if Gawn lets Stanley get on top early like he did in Round 23, and I'll be even more surprised if our mids don't at least break even.

At least we know from Round 23 that even if we're behind at half time, the game won't be over. And we know Geelong can lose from good positions: their last two seasons have ended with them building up a half time lead and then watching it disintegrate.

Edited September 5, 2021 by titan_uranus