CHANGES: Rd 20 vs Gold Coast

[jumbo returns 6,741]

6 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

I'd rest Jackson, bringing in Weid, which then also means Weid is the 2nd ruck, something that has really helped his game at Casey. I've always thought he's one of the players that needs a hard contest early to get going and going into the ruck will help that.

Jordon also should be rested, early season his tackling was elite, but that has really dropped off which is a sign that his tiring and probably being forced onto the wing a bit too much.

I'd drop Hibbo, he's been very fumbley and I think we've got the defensive mix wrong at the moment, we need a smaller ground ball operator, other teams have worked out that kicking it high and long suits our defenders so hitting grass and getting chaos is working, so that's why I think we've sent Brayshaw back more lately, but he's not the answer - and having Salem doing that job has curbed some of his run/creativity. We need a really defensive small so I'd go Bowey or Lockhart. 

So out: LJ, JJ and Hibbo

In: Weid, Bowey and either AVB or Melk (both play high half forwward, Melk has better delivery but can go missing, while AVB might offer an additional hard edge). 

Jetta? Or more future planning???

Agree about Hibbo - v nervous watching him now...

Edited July 26, 2021 by jumbo returns

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

Just now, jumbo returns said:

Jetta? Or more future planning???

I think Jetta's much better when he's got a set opponent, which is not really the way our backs are playing, they still like to zone, but I fear bringing him in won't help a great deal with those ground ball chaos kicks, because he'll stay on his man rather than attack it.

[GCDee 3,199]

18 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think we need to cop 1 or 2 of Melksham's half hearted defensive efforts in exchange for the offensive rewards he can provide going the other way.

Yes, if he fails to impact then he's gone for good, but we need to mix things up a bit.

The Dogs are the best side in the league and they make 4 changes a week.

100% agree Melksham is also quite potent 1 out and can play midfield minutes. 

I think Melksham and Trac should be doing what Caddy and Dustin were doing in the tigers 17 finals campaign. 

70-30 midfield forward for tracc swapping directly with melk. 

 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Listening to King on Whately this morning was interesting. 

Tactically, Bevo implemented and succeeded and what continues to trouble us is inaccuracy, poor skills and our poor midfield connection between Gawn and our mids. 

I wish Goodwin would take the same leap of faith as Bevo and get more players exposed to our game plan and change the team up. 

IMO he doesn't do it nearly enough and over the last month I've seen the same culprits bring their worst footy to games. ANB, Harmes, Hibberd and Salem, Langdon Jackson were all poor on the weekend and a number of other players again were just so wasteful with ball in hand. It's incredibly frustrating. We had so many chances. 

I would much rather blood a guy like Bowey and bring back Melksham and Jones for players like Harmes, ANB and maybe give Jordan a rest. 

These next four weeks are absolutely vital and will be season defining. We've lost mementum, form and therefore confidence and teams around us are have easier draws and are playing much better footy. 

As a Melbourne supporter, it's hard not to think of the worst against the Suns next week. It's a game we simply cannot lose and I want Goodwin to drop some players who just seem to be incapable of being clean and efficient with the ball like Harmes and ANB. Their inconsistency is just unbearable. Harmes is killing me. One hand pick ups, clumsy tackling and trying too hard to look hard and not play hard and do the basics well. 

[jumbo returns 6,741]

4 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Listening to King on Whately this morning was interesting. 

Tactically, Bevo implemented and succeeded and what continues to trouble us is inaccuracy, poor skills and our poor midfield connection between Gawn and our mids. 

I wish Goodwin would take the same leap of faith as Bevo and get more players exposed to our game plan and change the team up. 

IMO he doesn't do it nearly enough and over the last month I've seen the same culprits bring their worst footy to games. ANB, Harmes, Hibberd and Salem, Langdon Jackson were all poor on the weekend and a number of other players again were just so wasteful with ball in hand. It's incredibly frustrating. We had so many chances. 

I would much rather blood a guy like Bowey and bring back Melksham and Jones for players like Harmes, ANB and maybe give Jordan a rest. 

These next four weeks are absolutely vital and will be season defining. We've lost mementum, form and therefore confidence and teams around us are have easier draws and are playing much better footy. 

As a Melbourne supporter, it's hard not to think of the worst against the Suns next week. It's a game we simply cannot lose and I want Goodwin to drop some players who just seem to be incapable of being clean and efficient with the ball like Harmes and ANB. Their inconsistency is just unbearable. Harmes is killing me. One hand pick ups, clumsy tackling and trying too hard to look hard and not play hard and do the basics well. 

Bevo was rubbing his hands in glee, watching Bontempelli and Daniel run riot

Harmes has become a major liability

[Brownie 5,980]

14 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

To people really believe that he’s not concerned about our efficiency? All he’s trying to do is absorb the pressure on behalf of the players, so it doesn’t become an even greater psychological issue.

That's a good point @The heart beats true, what he says in public is probably different to what he says behind closed doors. But why do our players need protecting?
This isn't 10 year old little athletics and this team is definitely mentally fragile. They shouldn't be protected from the horrible truth of the last 6 weeks. We as a club, shouldn't have to listen to his "we're confident, on track and only a little bit off the mark" BS.
Our mark is way above the level of every other club if we're playing to our best abilities.

They go to pieces when the blow torch is applied and go to sleep when they play lower teams.
They still fall asleep at the end of quarters (Demontime lives on), our set goal kicking and forward etnries are a dogs breakfast. 
Our clearance work pfft.

From a team selection point of view, we've got some great young players in the wings but they haven't been playing much and it's the wrong end of the season to blood them now. 

The likes of Harmes, ANB, Brayshaw, Oliver, Tracc, Gawn, Viney, TMAC, Hunt are senior players that need to play sefless, consistent football and show leadership.

Jones is probably the only bloke not in the side right now that could possibly come in and play finals and unfortunately again, our finals pretty well start now.

I firmly believe we are the best team in the competition when we click into gear, by a long margin.
At the moment I think the gearbox is r**ted and I have no confidence that our coaches and players know how to fix it. 

Changing personnel won't make much of a difference and it feels to me like Goodwin is back in bunny in the headlights mode.
It's going to be a travesty to see this fantastic opportunity slip from our grasp.

This club frustrates me no end.

Jones in and Harmes out
Four hours set goal kicking practice every day for every player this week. Learn how to kick a drop punt FFS.

[dazzledavey36 54,889]

22 minutes ago, drdrake said:

The concern is we already have Fritsch that we cop his lack of defensive pressure, that is why I think it is important to bring in Melksham with Bedford or Chandler to add some defensive pressure up forward.

Chandler and Bedford have shown they are not up to AFL standard.  Bedford isn't exactly banging down the door and Chandler is just so so.

I'm in the Melksham camp now. We are at the pointy end of the year now and I think experience and hardened bodies is crucial for us.

Melksham and Jones would be two I'd look to potentially bring in alongside Jackson.

Jackson, Jordon, Rivers.. they've all had a good run. Time for a spell. They need to now earn their spot back like the rest of his teammates have.

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

2 minutes ago, Brownie said:

That's a good point @The heart beats true, what he says in public is probably different to what he says behind closed doors. But why do our players need protecting?
This isn't 10 year old little athletics and this team is definitely mentally fragile. They shouldn't be protected from the horrible truth of the last 6 weeks. We as a club, shouldn't have to listen to his "we're confident, on track and only a little bit off the mark" BS.

I think if it was a different area of the ground, he'd say we require extra work (and has done that this year and in the past), but when it comes to goal kicking we've all seen clubs go through the 'yips' where it all of a sudden it seems like they'll miss everytime. The only way through that is backing what they know, their routine and eventually the confidence comes back. He's trying to remove doubt around their routines because that'll only make it worse. BBB looks shocking in front of goal at the moment, but a guy who's kicked nearly 300 goals in his career won't need a heap of extra work, just confidence, which is what goody is trying to show them he has in them - but they'd 100% be doing a heap of work on it in the background.

[dazzledavey36 54,889]

20 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Listening to King on Whately this morning was interesting. 

Tactically, Bevo implemented and succeeded and what continues to trouble us is inaccuracy, poor skills and our poor midfield connection between Gawn and our mids. 

I wish Goodwin would take the same leap of faith as Bevo and get more players exposed to our game plan and change the team up. 

IMO he doesn't do it nearly enough and over the last month I've seen the same culprits bring their worst footy to games. ANB, Harmes, Hibberd and Salem, Langdon Jackson were all poor on the weekend and a number of other players again were just so wasteful with ball in hand. It's incredibly frustrating. We had so many chances. 

I would much rather blood a guy like Bowey and bring back Melksham and Jones for players like Harmes, ANB and maybe give Jordan a rest. 

These next four weeks are absolutely vital and will be season defining. We've lost mementum, form and therefore confidence and teams around us are have easier draws and are playing much better footy. 

As a Melbourne supporter, it's hard not to think of the worst against the Suns next week. It's a game we simply cannot lose and I want Goodwin to drop some players who just seem to be incapable of being clean and efficient with the ball like Harmes and ANB. Their inconsistency is just unbearable. Harmes is killing me. One hand pick ups, clumsy tackling and trying too hard to look hard and not play hard and do the basics well. 

As @Lord Nev stated, Goody won't drop ANB unfortunately. Goody and the coaches love all the pressure acts and defensive stuff that he brings but he's been woeful and a liability for the past month and a bit. 

Never seen a player just panick so much and dump kick out of the contest to no man's land.

Goody's stubborness as a coach has crept back in.

Edited July 26, 2021 by dazzledavey36

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Inject three more quality ball users and decision makers into this side and I believe we could be anything. It's our only weakness. The lack of ruthlessness and clinical finishing comes down to having too many similar types of players with a similar skill level all too often. Not the only factor, but a big one. 

Inject one on the wing where Gus is right now. 

Another at half-forward in ANB's spot. 

And one more through the midfield.

Take Harmes out of the midfield, ANB from half forward and one of Hibberd and or Jordon out and Gus can be rotated through the guts and at half back.

Even if we played Bowey as a Caleb Daniel type player in place of Hibberd and move Riv to a back pocket and play a real negating role. 

Over the off-season I'd love to replace Harmes and ANB's spot with some real point of difference players who bring quality use and decision making. Would make the world of difference. 

 

 

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by JimmyGadson

[drdrake 3,163]

3 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Chandler and Bedford have shown they are not up to AFL standard.  Bedford isn't exactly banging down the door and Chandler is just so so.

I'm in the Melksham camp now. We are at the pointy end of the year now and I think experience and hardened bodies is crucial for us.

Melksham and Jones would be two I'd look to potentially bring in alongside Jackson.

Jackson, Jordon, Rivers.. they've all had a good run. Time for a spell. They need to now earn their spot back like the rest of his teammates have.

If you bring in Melksham which I'm a fan of, you need to also add some more defensive pressure up forward, I don't think Bedford or Chandler has really had the opportunity to show if they are up to AFL level, you can't judge on the small sample we have seen .

 

[Little Richard 6,262]

42 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

Third

But, I like your post

Ah yes good point, forgot about the Cats win yesterday. Thanks for the correction! 

[old dee 23,788]

1 minute ago, drdrake said:

If you bring in Melksham which I'm a fan of, you need to also add some more defensive pressure up forward, I don't think Bedford or Chandler has really had the opportunity to show if they are up to AFL level, you can't judge on the small sample we have seen .

 

Milkshake does one thing very well and that is kicking . For that reason alone  he should be straight in.  Jackson needs a rest. Replace him with Brown. 

[dazzledavey36 54,889]

Just now, drdrake said:

If you bring in Melksham which I'm a fan of, you need to also add some more defensive pressure up forward, I don't think Bedford or Chandler has really had the opportunity to show if they are up to AFL level, you can't judge on the small sample we have seen .

 

I just don't think now is the time to be experimenting with players who are still questionable at AFL standard.  We should have done this way earlier and I think now we've missed the boat. They're just too inexperienced right now to be bring them in against some quality sides we are coming up against in the next few weeks

I've also been hard on Melkshams defensive game, but if he is offering us quality ball use going inside 50 then I'm taking that with both hand.

 

[titan_uranus 25,016]

31 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Listening to King on Whately this morning was interesting. 

Tactically, Bevo implemented and succeeded and what continues to trouble us is inaccuracy, poor skills and our poor midfield connection between Gawn and our mids. 

I wish Goodwin would take the same leap of faith as Bevo and get more players exposed to our game plan and change the team up. 

IMO he doesn't do it nearly enough and over the last month I've seen the same culprits bring their worst footy to games. ANB, Harmes, Hibberd and Salem, Langdon Jackson were all poor on the weekend and a number of other players again were just so wasteful with ball in hand. It's incredibly frustrating. We had so many chances. 

I would much rather blood a guy like Bowey and bring back Melksham and Jones for players like Harmes, ANB and maybe give Jordan a rest. 

These next four weeks are absolutely vital and will be season defining. We've lost mementum, form and therefore confidence and teams around us are have easier draws and are playing much better footy. 

As a Melbourne supporter, it's hard not to think of the worst against the Suns next week. It's a game we simply cannot lose and I want Goodwin to drop some players who just seem to be incapable of being clean and efficient with the ball like Harmes and ANB. Their inconsistency is just unbearable. Harmes is killing me. One hand pick ups, clumsy tackling and trying too hard to look hard and not play hard and do the basics well. 

I agree with the personnel points you've mentioned but I'm interested in the Bevo tactical point.

Out of interest, what do you (or King) think Bevo did on Saturday night that was tactically sound?

On the leap of faith point, one key difference between us and the Dogs is that the Dogs have had injuries which has forced them to try different players. We haven't, so Goodwin has had the ability to keep picking the same 25-odd players. Whilst I have all season considered there to be merit to backing the same guys in who have taken us to wins vs the best sides, there is now more than enough evidence of poor form from those you've mentioned to mean it's time to start dropping players.

[drdrake 3,163]

13 minutes ago, old dee said:

Milkshake does one thing very well and that is kicking . For that reason alone  he should be straight in.  Jackson needs a rest. Replace him with Brown. 

Assuming you are talking about M Brown, I thought he was injured and we don't need a tall, I reckon we will be a better functioning forward line by adding Melksham and another defensive small rather than adding a tall.  No question Jackson needs to be dropped along with Harmes.

 

18 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I just don't think now is the time to be experimenting with players who are still questionable at AFL standard.  We should have done this way earlier and I think now we've missed the boat. They're just too inexperienced right now to be bring them in against some quality sides we are coming up against in the next few weeks

I've also been hard on Melkshams defensive game, but if he is offering us quality ball use going inside 50 then I'm taking that with both hand.

 

We need to try something as our forward line isn't functioning, sides are rebounding way to easily from our forward 50m arc.  If you keep doing the same thing you aren't going to improve.  We have Geelong and WCE that thrive on intercept marking rebounding from defensive 50, they control the football from their defensive 50m. 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

53 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

Bevo was rubbing his hands in glee, watching Bontempelli and Daniel run riot

Harmes has become a major liability

Video evidence please ?

[Demon17 5,188]

30 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

I've also been hard on Melkshams defensive game, but if he is offering us quality ball use going inside 50 then I'm taking that with both hand.

 

Well said dd.

Quality ball use and goal sense and kicking is the number 1 fix needed. Its killing us more than anything else.

The only quick fix with 4 games left is now melksham and jones in now . Settle the team and hope for the best.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

40 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

As @Lord Nev stated, Goody won't drop ANB unfortunately. Goody and the coaches love all the pressure acts and defensive stuff that he brings but he's been woeful and a liability for the past month and a bit. 

Never seen a player just panick so much and dump kick out of the contest to no man's land.

Goody's stubborness as a coach has crept back in.

I don't mind him keeping ANB if he's bringing the consistent pressure etc tbh, but I think where we're falling down a bit is we haven't evened up the balance of quality ball use. It would probably be not so bad if Spargo was getting the ball more, but as it stands we have Spargo, ANB, Harmes and Viney all providing 'pressure' without enough quality delivery or scoreboard impact, so when Oliver, Petracca, Langdon and Gus don't deliver to their absolute peak (as we're seeing currently) we fall down a bit in the forward half.

Get Melksham in, get Viney back to forward/mid, get Harmes out, get Spargo more involved with the ball and I think that could lead to more goals, and maybe even some super easy set shots that will help to build confidence in our goal kicking.

Then all we have to worry about is the midfield disconnect and the problems in the back half when the ball is on the deck...

[loges 6,767]

7 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Video evidence please ?

Queue an image of Mr Burns saying excellent

[Ollie fan 3,370]

15 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Might be something in this.

Prior to being managed for general soreness (was it?) in Rnd 11, my view is he was taking the game on more with his passes by foot Ollie.  I could be imagining this but since then he appears to be just laying off to anyone free within 15 / 20 odd meters much more often than prior to being managed.  Not taking the more risky 45 kicks or switches as often that require a more forcefull kick of at least 25/30 meters plus.

Pure speculation though as i have no data with his kicks to back this up.  However meters gained might be one loose indicator and he is down here over 40% per match on average after returning! (see below).  Also his turnover numbers are down.  Might suggest he is not turning over as much due to not pulling the trigger as often?  His intercept numbers are also way off the first nine rounds!  Not working as hard as first nine rounds or something NQR?  Time on ground (TOG) also supports this theory playing 13% less TOG.....suggesting he is either NQR or being managed (see below).

Below is a sample of some (publicly available) aspects of his statistical form with the figures showing the difference between his first nine rounds (1 to 9) and his last 9 rounds (11 to 19) averages...

Contested possessions:  7.1 / 3.8  -46.8%

Uncontested possessions:  17.4  / 15.8  -9.5%

Effective Disposals:  20.8 / 16.8  -19.2%

Disposal Efficiency:  Was 75.6 (AFL ave approx 73%) vs 70.9%

Marks i50:  Zero prior and just the 1 after but not expecting much here given he is a defender*

1% ers:  Unchanged @ 1.22

Contested Marks:   0.3 / 0.0*

Clearances:  0.9 / 0.8  -12.5% (obviously not a strong suit given role so not taking too much out of this)

Rebound 50s:  5.6 / 5.1  -8.0%

Inside 50s:  2.8 / 1.0  -64%

Tackles:  2.4 / 1.7  -31.8%

Score Involvements:  4.7 / 2.9  -38.1%

Meters Gained:  498.2 / 297.0  -40.4%

Turnovers:  4.8 / 3.4  -27.9%

Intercepts:  7.7 / 4.2  -44.9%

Time on Ground:  88.0% / 75.6%

Taking a weighted average score from some of the above, his last nine rounds were statistically 24.7% worse than his first nine indicating he appears to be way off his earlier season form.  Could also (partly?) be the opp putting more time into him (and/or better defensive forwards?) vs earlier this season.

Thanks heaps for this. It’s very interesting and detailed, and backs up completely what I thought just from observation. I believe Salem started mini mini chains of quick movement which were the key to our scoring in the first part of the season, and we have completely gone missing. I don’t blame him at all. He is carrying an injury and if possible, that needs to be addressed. Of course, it might be an injury that requires surgery in which case perhaps we have to find another attacking defender to rely upon?

 

Thanks heaps for this. It’s very interesting and detailed, and justifies completely what I thought just from observation. I believe Salem started many many chains of quick movement which were the key to our scoring in the first part of the season, and which have completely gone missing. I don’t blame him at all. He is carrying an injury and if possible, that needs to be addressed. Of course, it might be an injury that requires surgery in which case perhaps we have to find another attacking defender to rely upon?

 

On another topic, I agree with the posters who suggest Melksham in. But Chandler? His one game was a total disaster.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

33 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Out of interest, what do you (or King) think Bevo did on Saturday night that was tactically sound?

You wouldn't know this without being in the inner sanctum of course, but gut feel is they decided to let Gawn win the hitouts without even really trying so that they could predict the stoppages better. They then dominated stoppage clearances and kicked 6 goals from them.

Seemingly they were also more than happy to have some 'chaos ball' in their forward 50 knowing it takes May and Lever out of the equation and puts pressure on out of form players like Hibberd, Rivers and Salem. Seemed Goody tried to combat that with Spargo in the back half but that didn't really work.

Also, he played Libba more on the outside this time instead of just in the guts like round 11. On top of that, it looked like they tried to disrupt the tag by putting other players to Harmes and/or Viney. In the end, it seemed like either we gave up on that tag or the taggers did a poor job.

[The heart beats true 18,123]

I’m thinking we have to try Petracca as a deep forward, with 5 minutes on the ball each quarter this weekend. We have too many inside mids who can’t do much else (Viney, Oliver, Harmes, Brayshaw - who’s playing defensive wing to his credit). Tom Mac continues to play high, Brown down the line and Petracca deepest. It’s time to try something different. Put the pressure on Viney and Oliver to win the ball.

I still feel like we are a skilled outside player short, but that’s a list issue we can’t fix in July, which is why I’d have Melksham in this weekend.

Desperate for a lift from Langdon and Salem too. Without them operating well on the outside the last month we’ve looked much less dynamic.

[picket fence 17,151]

2 hours ago, Red and Blue realist said:

I think Jetta's much better when he's got a set opponent, which is not really the way our backs are playing, they still like to zone, but I fear bringing him in won't help a great deal with those ground ball chaos kicks, because he'll stay on his man rather than attack it.

Could Nev or Jones play Spargos role? Spargos 8 or so possesions is not inspiring me one little bit!

Edited July 26, 2021 by picket fence

[Billy 2,529]

I’ve got nothing against Goodwins coaching this year he’s had some really good coaching performances over the season as shown with our winning record against good opposition but.....

The one thing is the burning out of young players & player rotation 

Our list is deep enough to do this, Jones, Melksham, Bowey AVB Weiderman Sparrow Baker Jetta etc are good enough to play a few more games when other players are obviously tiring 

Jackson Jordon Rivers  & Kozzie have definitely tired & Hibberd was great in the first half of the season but now needs a 
spell

Is it to late to do this now???