My Round 4 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,735]

WOW!

3 rounds, 3 wins and 12 premiership points in the bank.

It is so long since we have experienced such a high position on the ladder this early in the season it is giving me nose bleeds. As a matter of fact, I have experienced some Demon seasons where we have not realised 12 points for the whole 22 rounds.

We played GWS last round and, it has to be said that they suffered three critical game ending injuries to leading players. This, of course, made it very difficult for them. So what? It happens. I will take the points and celebrate the win and I do not see anywhere an asterix besides the 4 points that explains the situation. Sing the song, celebrate the win, and move on the next round.

And so, to the Round 4 encounter with the [censored] ( I had no idea that 'Puss ies" was censored) at the G on Sunday afternoon. Don’t be surprised if Geelong do not turn up on Sunday. I mean that literally, not metaphorically. Since records were first kept, when the [censored] supporters saw the Dees fixture on the season list they just assumed it was a home game at Kardy Park. Do not be surprised if, an hour before the game, a bunch of their supporters turn up at the ground from the pub only to realise that the game is being played elsewhere. A few of the dimmer players might also turn up there.

The facts:

We are coming off a win in Canberra and are full of confidence. Advantage us.

We did not make the most of our good play last week. Advantage them.

They had a hard-fought win against the hawks and have one less day to recover. Advantage us

They have no Dangerfield and that other bloke that is the worst sort of sniper/king hitter I have seen for some time. Advantage us

Problem areas of the game for us:

Strange to think that we are 3-0 with a patched up forward structure and have not really put it all together in a game yet. Does that say more about us, or the teams we have played?

Defence was a bit patchy on Sunday. It held together but did not look as confident as it has in the recent past. There were a few dropped marks that should have been taken and I was very nervous each time Jetta was called upon to step up. He started on Toby and was left standing and watching a few times before May moved to him. Nev had jut 67% game time for 9 disposals and zero tackles. Not what you want from a defender. On the plus side in defence Hunt had a blinder.

In the past I have subscribed to the old maxim that it is all about the midfield but I might have to say that in this game it will be the defence that needs to perform against a mature, well structured attack. May has a big job to do on Hawkins.

We had problems in the midfield against GWS. Oliver copped a heavy tag as was not able to work it out. The coaches moved him forward where he managed to get his hands on the ball but butchered the three set shots. Petracca had a reasonable game but I wondered after the game if the heavy tag on Oliver also affected Petracca’s game. I have noticed that the seems to feed off each other in games. Will be interesting to see how that situation develops. I like the way that we are developing the games of Sparrow and Jordon. Both had only 66% game time last week with Jordon really delivering.

 This week they will come up against a good midfield team but I believe we will come out on top of them. Smith against Langdon as a match up? Gutherie and Selwwood will need to be contained.

Ah yes, now for the forwards…….

The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Kossie with 4

The bad; that midfielder’s set shots for goal

The ugly; TMac’s disappearance for a lot of the game

Well, I have to say that Kossie is a great pickup. 4 goals taken with excitement and flare. And….. he is ours….. Fristch found his kicking boots and looked like he was having fun out there and giving the opposition players a bit as well. It is not the forward structure we thought we would be running with in the pre-season but we still manage to find avenues to goal each week. I hope we do the same this week.

I predicted a 6 goal win last week and missed by a couple of points. This week I think it will be tighter than last week with the older more experienced [censored] pushing the whole way.

3 quarters of an arm wrestle with us winning out in the last by 3 goals.

If we go to 4-0 I can imagine that there will be a few more heads turning our way in the media and the other teams.

OK. I’ve dusted off the bandwagon, polished the fading paintwork, given it a tune up and topped up the fuel tank with premium bathwater. Another win and it will trundle out into public for the first time since the beginning of 2019 season.

 

Edited April 6, 2021 by CHF
censored bit

[Master Deebater 492]

Let me be the first (or couple) to congratulate you on a great and well reasoned post.

You have a clear thinking of the game 

[Master Deebater 492]

Just now, Hardley Benial said:

Let me be the first (or couple) to congratulate you on a great and well reasoned post.

You have a clear thinking of the game 

BTW you should be in the media. Slobbo, Gazza, Piggy don't have your articulation.

I'm staying tuned for more.

Thanks

[CHF 2,735]

6 minutes ago, Hardley Benial said:

Let me be the first (or couple) to congratulate you on a great and well reasoned post.

You have a clear thinking of the game 

Thank you..... 

[DubDee 25,839]

MASSIVE game. fantastic to play the Cats at the G. Hopefully they have flashbacks of Jetta, Viney and Clarry smashing them physically in the final in 2018 in front of 90K.

The Cats are clever, rough and will try anything to nullify our strengths.  Have we matured?  Can we keep our heads and not give away 50s? 

If we stay focused and tough at the ball we win.

[DemonLad5 1,642]

Fritta did a super job nullifying Nick Haynes' intercept game on Sunday

Could play a similar role against Tom Stewart 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

Great post Chf.

Im not worried about our backline.

It will stand up. Jetta will finally show us why hes still there. If Hunt can surprise us then...

May and co will keep performing. Especially Rivers.

Not worried about the midfield either. I doubt you can keep both Trac and Oliver from their best 2 games in a row. Besides Jv is hitting his strides. Maybe Anb gets rotated. Hes playing his best footy.

Will our fotwards kick a big score?

Kozzie cant do it all. Tmac will have to stand up. Fritta to continue his form. Gawn more time in the forward line. Spargo hopefully with 2 or 3. Jones a little time there as well and we should be alright. 

Besides it aint kardinia park its our home ground. The space will help us.

Dees by 5 goals.

Edited April 6, 2021 by leave it to deever

[loges 6,767]

We won't be favourites, advantage us.

[Roost it far 8,255]

Dees by 42

[Nelo 813]

Not at all worried about this game. I think we will kick straight and cruise to a 45 point win. 

Edited April 6, 2021 by Nelo

[BigFez 1,457]

Looking at the forecast hopefully our boys aren't scared of a bit of wet and cold.

[Earl Hood 6,086]

Anyone else having issues with ticketing? I am second priority with a level 1 reserved seat and was slow to log in this evening but have been in about 5 times and choose a seat area but can get no further, as in I get no actual seat and option buttons to move on. I doubt everything is sold in our reserved area yet? 

[CHF 2,735]

6 minutes ago, BigFez said:

Looking at the forecast hopefully our boys aren't scared of a bit of wet and cold.

I looked at the Accuweather forecast and it did not look to be too bad. A bit breezy in the morning with a 25% chance of rain.

[Earl Hood 6,086]

3 hours ago, CHF said:

WOW!

3 rounds, 3 wins and 12 premiership points in the bank.

It is so long since we have experienced such a high position on the ladder this early in the season it is giving me nose bleeds. As a matter of fact, I have experienced some Demon seasons where we have not realised 12 points for the whole 22 rounds.

We played GWS last round and, it has to be said that they suffered three critical game ending injuries to leading players. This, of course, made it very difficult for them. So what? It happens. I will take the points and celebrate the win and I do not see anywhere an asterix besides the 4 points that explains the situation. Sing the song, celebrate the win, and move on the next round.

And so, to the Round 4 encounter with the [censored] ( I had no idea that 'Puss ies" was censored) at the G on Sunday afternoon. Don’t be surprised if Geelong do not turn up on Sunday. I mean that literally, not metaphorically. Since records were first kept, when the [censored] supporters saw the Dees fixture on the season list they just assumed it was a home game at Kardy Park. Do not be surprised if, an hour before the game, a bunch of their supporters turn up at the ground from the pub only to realise that the game is being played elsewhere. A few of the dimmer players might also turn up there.

The facts:

We are coming off a win in Canberra and are full of confidence. Advantage us.

We did not make the most of our good play last week. Advantage them.

They had a hard-fought win against the hawks and have one less day to recover. Advantage us

They have no Dangerfield and that other bloke that is the worst sort of sniper/king hitter I have seen for some time. Advantage us

Problem areas of the game for us:

Strange to think that we are 3-0 with a patched up forward structure and have not really put it all together in a game yet. Does that say more about us, or the teams we have played?

Defence was a bit patchy on Sunday. It held together but did not look as confident as it has in the recent past. There were a few dropped marks that should have been taken and I was very nervous each time Jetta was called upon to step up. He started on Toby and was left standing and watching a few times before May moved to him. Nev had jut 67% game time for 9 disposals and zero tackles. Not what you want from a defender. On the plus side in defence Hunt had a blinder.

In the past I have subscribed to the old maxim that it is all about the midfield but I might have to say that in this game it will be the defence that needs to perform against a mature, well structured attack. May has a big job to do on Hawkins.

We had problems in the midfield against GWS. Oliver copped a heavy tag as was not able to work it out. The coaches moved him forward where he managed to get his hands on the ball but butchered the three set shots. Petracca had a reasonable game but I wondered after the game if the heavy tag on Oliver also affected Petracca’s game. I have noticed that the seems to feed off each other in games. Will be interesting to see how that situation develops. I like the way that we are developing the games of Sparrow and Jordon. Both had only 66% game time last week with Jordon really delivering.

 This week they will come up against a good midfield team but I believe we will come out on top of them. Smith against Langdon as a match up? Gutherie and Selwwood will need to be contained.

Ah yes, now for the forwards…….

The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Kossie with 4

The bad; that midfielder’s set shots for goal

The ugly; TMac’s disappearance for a lot of the game

Well, I have to say that Kossie is a great pickup. 4 goals taken with excitement and flare. And….. he is ours….. Fristch found his kicking boots and looked like he was having fun out there and giving the opposition players a bit as well. It is not the forward structure we thought we would be running with in the pre-season but we still manage to find avenues to goal each week. I hope we do the same this week.

I predicted a 6 goal win last week and missed by a couple of points. This week I think it will be tighter than last week with the older more experienced [censored] pushing the whole way.

3 quarters of an arm wrestle with us winning out in the last by 3 goals.

If we go to 4-0 I can imagine that there will be a few more heads turning our way in the media and the other teams.

OK. I’ve dusted off the bandwagon, polished the fading paintwork, given it a tune up and topped up the fuel tank with premium bathwater. Another win and it will trundle out into public for the first time since the beginning of 2019 season.

 

And historically Geelong loses the next week after they beat the Hawks. If we show to play this week we can win. 

[3183 Dee 2,853]

Fantastic piece - well balanced and insightful, I really enjoyed reading it.

[3183 Dee 2,853]

1 hour ago, Earl Hood said:

Anyone else having issues with ticketing? I am second priority with a level 1 reserved seat and was slow to log in this evening but have been in about 5 times and choose a seat area but can get no further, as in I get no actual seat and option buttons to move on. I doubt everything is sold in our reserved area yet? 

Earl, I had problems too, where I couldn’t choose a delivery option and so could not proceed with tickets. This was on my desktop computer, so I tried on my phone and it worked straightaway. Hope you get it sorted.

[Rod Grinter Riot Squad 5,654]

4-0, lock it in,father a close three quarters we will run away with it in the last, Dees by 45

 

[Pates 9,660]

Definitely not locking in anything, we're looking good but if we've learned anything from the first few rounds it's that being off your game by a little bit can catch you out big time.

I live in the UK so let me say this to any Dees fan that can make it to the G, GET THERE AND MAKE SOME NOISE!!!! When I watch it this week I want to hear a noise level like what we had in the elimination final against the cats in 2018, be that extra element that gets the boys over the line like the cats have at KP.

[IRW 1,387]

12 hours ago, Hardley Benial said:

BTW you should be in the media. Slobbo, Gazza, Piggy don't have your articulation.

I'm staying tuned for more.

Thanks

I suspect you mean " are far less articulate "

[Demon17 5,188]

13 hours ago, CHF said:

 

Oliver copped a heavy tag as was not able to work it out. The coaches moved him forward where he managed to get his hands on the ball

 

Great read CHF and thank you.

Your comment on Oliver and my observations gave me great hope for the first time in a long time that Goody and (new) coaching support are capable of dealing strategically mid game with an issue. I havent seen this much before now.

But someone recognised Olivers predicament and thoughtfully made a change that, short of straight kicking, could have been a masterstroke. With the remaining midfield standing up.

Fills me with confidence, given the Chris Scott is a great match day coach, that we have the brainpower in the box to counter it. Yze - I'm looking at you.

[Demon17 5,188]

4 hours ago, Pates said:

Definitely not locking in anything, we're looking good but if we've learned anything from the first few rounds it's that being off your game by a little bit can catch you out big time.

I live in the UK so let me say this to any Dees fan that can make it to the G, GET THERE AND MAKE SOME NOISE!!!! When I watch it this week I want to hear a noise level like what we had in the elimination final against the cats in 2018, be that extra element that gets the boys over the line like the cats have at KP.

Max Gawn noted in his after match on ground interview in the 2018 final defeat of the cats that it felt like a MFC home game given the overwhelming support for Melb from the crowd.

Fear not - I am expecting the same this Sunday.

As Chris Scott siad in an insightful interview on Footy Classifed this week  -  "...Everyone outside the club hates the Geelong coach..."

 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

someone recognised Olivers predicament and thoughtfully made a change that, short of straight kicking, could have been a masterstroke. With the remaining midfield standing up.

Good point. He could have easily kicked 3 goals which he normally would have (i think he has been a very reliable kick in the past ) in a short ammount of time. 

Good coaching signs.

[furious d 464]

First chance to get to a game since 2019, haven't been this excited about going to the footy since 2018 finals. Get to see Kozzie, LJ and Riv live, and Langdon burn up and down the mcg wing for the first time. 

Going with a Geelong supporting mate and wondering if anyone knows how we get tickets together? Do I need to wait for GA to be available and will I still be able to enter the barcodes for me and the missus? Bugger all info available, rang the club but nobody was home.  

[Wells 11 5,397]

Great write up, and a good read. ?

I was watching last weeks geelong v Hawks game, hoping the cats would win fr two reasons. 1./ The style they’re playing is slow and outdated and I don’t think they’ll beat us with it in 2021. I wanted them to win so they would be encouraged not to change it. 

2./ Despite their first up loss i feel like they’re still a cocky team who’ve drunk a lot of success. Fair enough if you’re richmond or west coast but they’re not in that sphere anymore. i reckon they’re an team on the cusp of a big fall. Id like them to stay falsely cocky fr one more week and get barrelled by us. 

I feel a bit insane saying this but im going the dees by a lazy 45 pts plus. 

[In Harmes Way 7,766]

My lineups for both teams (can’t wait for Werridee). Hibbo in for Jetta and assuming Josh Jenkins in for Higgins to try to create height mismatch.

FB [14] Michael Hibberd (186), [1] Steven May (193), [8] Jake Lever (195)

FF [31] Francis Evans (182), [26] Tom Hawkins (198), [9] Max Holmes (189)

CHB [3] Christian Salem (183), [20] Adam Tomlinson (194),[29] Jayden Hunt (187)

CHF [22] Mitch Duncan (188), [11] Josh Jenkins (200), [40] Luke Dahlhaus (179)

C [10] Angus Brayshaw (187),[5] Christian Petracca (186),[15] Ed Langdon (182)

C [7] Isaac Smith (188), [42] Mark O'Connor (191), [2] Zach Tuohy (187)

CHF [36] Kysaiah Pickett (170),[25] Tom McDonald (194),[9] Charlie Spargo (173)

CHB [30] Tom Atkins (180), [8] Jake Kolodjashnij (193), [24] Jed Bews (186)

FF [30] Alex Neal-Bullen (182),[6] Luke Jackson (198),[31] Bayley Fritsch (188)

FB [25] Lachie Henderson (196), [46] Mark Blicavs (198), [44] Tom Stewart (190)

FOLL [11] Max Gawn (208),[13] Clayton Oliver (187), [7] Jack Viney (178)

FOLL [1] Rhys Stanley (200),[29] Cameron Guthrie (187),[14] Joel Selwood (183)

Subs/Medical Sub:

[2] Nathan Jones, [23] James Jordon, [24] Trent Rivers, [32] Tom Sparrow, [18] Jake Melksham

[3] Brandan Parfitt, [6] Jordan Clark, [32] Gryan Miers, [38] Jack Henry,[18] Charlie Constable

 I like the mix of our forward line (2 talls, 1 medium and three small pressure) against their defense (3 talls, 2 medium, 1 small) if the ball comes in low and flat as we have seen more of. I wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped Henderson for someone smaller and quicker to try to counter Fritta, Kossie, Spargs and Nibbler.

I think the midfield battle leans our way, Gawn should give Stanley a towelling. Looking forward to the next round of Viney vs Duckwood. The wings should be an interesting battle to watch.

Max Holmes (debut last week) and Francis Evans (2 games) in the fwd pockets are young, light and presumably quick. I’m not sure Jetts has a place in this backline, he’ll struggle to keep up. Hence the change Jetta for Hibbo based on their lineup (apologies Nev).