2020 Phantom Drafts & Rankings

[Gawndog98 363]

This probably isn't the right thread but here is my prediction on how the first 2 rounds will go at this point (I have no mail whatsoever but I tried to consider list needs for each club at its picks):

ROUND ONE

1.     Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward
2.     Western Bulldogs – Jamarra Ugle Hagan (VIC) – key forward
3.     North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – midfielder/forward
4.     Sydney – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward
5.     Hawthorn – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender
6.     Gold Coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder
7.     Sydney – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – inside midfielder/small forward
8.     Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder
9.     Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender
10.  Port Adelaide – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender
11.  Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – midfielder/forward
12.  Adelaide – Oliver Henry (VIC) – utility 
13.  GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility
14.  North Melbourne – Heath Chapman (WA) – medium defender
15.  Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – inside/outside midfielder
16.  GWS – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder
17.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward
18.  Collingwood – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder
19.  GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – inside midfielder/general defender
20.  Richmond – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder 
21.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – inside/outside midfielder or general defender
22.  Sydney – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/midfielder
23.  Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/midfielder
24.  Hawthorn – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender
25.  GWS – Isiah Winder (WA) – small utility
26.  St Kilda – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder

ROUND TWO 

27.  Adelaide – Caleb Poulter (SA) – inside/outside midfielder
28.  Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder
29.  Brisbane – Max Heath (VIC) – Ruck
30.  Fremantle – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender
31.  Gold Coast – Eddie Ford (VIC) – utility 
32.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward
33.  GWS – Jack Bowey (VIC) – small utility
34.  North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder
35.  Brisbane – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward
36.  Richmond – Matt Allison (VIC) – key forward
37.  Fremantle – Joel Western (WA) – small forward/midfielder
38.  Gold Coast – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward
39.  Adelaide – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/outside midfielder
40.  Carlton – Harry Sharp (VIC) – outside midfielder
41.  North Melbourne – Nick Stevens (VIC) – general defender

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

As others have said I normally rate KM's draft analysis but thought his phantom draft prediction seemed off for us this given there seems to be a number of players around our picks that would suit our needs (wing, outside mid / small forward).  Someone on bf obviously thought the same and asked KM about it - he wrote:

 

Quote

Melbourne definitely have a lot of inside mids, but I like the value Berry represents and I feel like he offers something different to a lot of Melbourne's existing midfielders. Lots of bid bodies in there, but little in the way of speed and skill. Berry brings both and along with a Zavier Maher who I also considered with one of those picks are the type of midfielder I can see Melbourne bringing in, if indeed one is brought in. The value around those Melbourne picks if you look at some of those next picks, it's mostly midfielders and general forwards, and awarding Winder with that next pick who is mostly a forward, I gave Melbourne the balance.

For forwards, Brown is excellent though he's in his late 20s, and any key forward drafted now would be playing likely at the very tail-end of his career or after he retires depending on how much more footy he has in him.

Weideman has come along somewhat this year and is a suitable number two behind Brown without being a capable number one option. Jackson I don't rate at all as a forward and regard as suitable only as a ruck (and he'll be a good ruck), with the shock midfield stoppage potential also somewhat interesting when I heard that discussed previously if he can develop that. Mitch Brown is not AFL standard and I can't see lasting beyond next season. Tom McDonald is best suited as a key defender and has long been played out of position, if he's to get his career back on track, that's the move he has to make. Fritsch on the other hand I like as a forward, though he's more a medium than a key.

Allison is a case of he's someone different. He's viewed more-so as a Jack Gunston stylistically by those who advocate his selection and with his endurance and not being that full key forward height, he's someone who can co-exist with two key forwards pretty easily I feel, if he develops.

 

[spirit of norm smith 16,441]

59 minutes ago, Gawndog98 said:

This probably isn't the right thread but here is my prediction on how the first 2 rounds will go at this point (I have no mail whatsoever but I tried to consider list needs for each club at its picks):

R1

 

1.     Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward

2.     Western Bulldogs – Jamarra Ugle Hagan (VIC) – key forward

3.     North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – midfielder/forward

4.     Sydney – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward

5.     Hawthorn – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender

6.     Gold Coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder

7.     Sydney – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – inside midfielder/small forward

8.     Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder

9.     Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender

10.  Port Adelaide – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender

11.  Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – midfielder/forward

12.  Adelaide – Oliver Henry (VIC) – utility 

13.  GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility

14.  North Melbourne – Heath Chapman (WA) – medium defender

15.  Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – inside/outside midfielder

16.  GWS – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder

17.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward

18.  Collingwood – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder

19.  GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – inside midfielder/general defender

20.  Richmond – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder 

21.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – inside/outside midfielder or general defender

22.  Sydney – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/midfielder

23.  Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/midfielder

24.  Hawthorn – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender

25.  GWS – Isiah Winder (WA) – small utility

26.  St Kilda – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder

 

R2

27.  Adelaide – Caleb Poulter (SA) – inside/outside midfielder

28.  Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder

29.  Brisbane – Max Heath (VIC) – Ruck

30.  Fremantle – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender

31.  Gold Coast – Eddie Ford (VIC) – utility 

32.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward

33.  GWS – Jack Bowey (VIC) – small utility

34.  North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder

35.  Brisbane – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward

36.  Richmond – Matt Allison (VIC) – key forward

37.  Fremantle – Joel Western (WA) – small forward/midfielder

38.  Gold Coast – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward

39.  Adelaide – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/outside midfielder

40.  Carlton – Harry Sharp (VIC) – outside midfielder

41.  North Melbourne – Nick Stevens (VIC) – general defender

Great work GD98. ✅ Jack Carroll and Bailey Laurie. (Definitely ?????). But I think Freo may choose Carroll over Chapman. 
 

Baldwin. He’s a tough one. His injuries will make it hard to know who takes the punt. I’d rather Jackson Callow if we speculated on a young forward.  I’m still grabbing pace and skill in our “#28” 3rd pick  
 

Certainly JT will have Macrae, Carroll, Perkins on his top line then Laurie, Cook, Winder, Maher, Ford, Poulter in his next bracket.  
 

I see you had Dees looking to bid on Errol Gulden.  Either Gulden or Brandon Walker would be a good bid and force the Swans/Freo to use up picks/points. 

[TRIGON 4,783]

3 hours ago, adonski said:

Perkins has bust written all over him 

What's your rationale for that statement @adonski?

[adonski 12,058]

2 hours ago, TRIGON said:

What's your rationale for that statement @adonski?

A lot of sizzle without much substance. I wouldn't be touching him but believe it or not I could be wrong!

If JT thinks he'll be a jet then I'll back him in.

Edited November 17, 2020 by adonski

[rjay 24,917]

6 hours ago, adonski said:

Perkins has bust written all over him 

I just watched some highlights and I would be trading up to get him based on those.

Now, I haven't seen any of the kids this year apart from a couple of highlight packages and he looks good.

His highlights are a mile ahead of Macrae who a lot seem interested in.

I stress again just highlights..some of Perkins were of no value as they were pumping the opposition but there was some good stuff later in the reel...

[Ted Lasso 19,507]

I wouldn't even bother with a phantom draft this year, even the clubs themselves acknowledge that the draft boards are going to be so different due to Vic not seeing games. i think JT and co would have their eyes on some good talents they've seen building for a few years and they'll take a calculated punt that they would have pushed strongly into the first round had games happened, but slipped because they didn't 

 

[Deeman 1,497]

2 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

I wouldn't even bother with a phantom draft this year 

Agree. I couldn’t stand three more weeks of endless discussion about whether Findlay Macrae or Archie Perkins can run 0.07 seconds faster over 20 metres. Just bring on the draft night. 

[ben russell 764]

Knightmare responded to a poster on BF who asked about some others that the Dees might be looking at with their first 3 picks.

He listed the following;

Zavier Maher (184cm) - Inside Mid

Bailey Laurie (if available) (178cm) - Small forward

Jake Bowey (174cm) - Outside mid

Corey Durdin (173cm) - Small forward

Fraser Rosman (193cm) - Tall forward

 

[Gawndog98 363]

Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below phantom draft. I'll be making more updates to it as it gets closer to the draft.
 
ROUND ONE

1.     Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward
2.     Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagain (VIC) – key forward
3.     North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
4.     Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender
5.     Hawthorn – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck
6.     Gold coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder
7.     Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder
8.     Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward
9.     Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
10.  Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender
11.  Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender
12.  Adelaide – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender
13.  GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility 
14.  North Melbourne – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility 
15.  Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder
16.  GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
17.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward
18.  Collingwood (NGA) – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder/general forward
19.  GWS – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward
20.  Richmond – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder
21.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
22.  Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward
23.  Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/balanced midfielder
24.  Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder
25.  Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender
26.  GWS – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small forward/outside midfielder
27.  St Kilda – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder

ROUND TWO 

28.  Adelaide – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder
29.  Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender
30.  Gold coast – PASS 
31.  Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender
32.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward
33.  GWS – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder
34.  North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder
35.  Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small forward
36.  Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender
37.  Richmond – Jackson Callow (TAS) – key forward
38.  Gold coast – PASS 
39.  Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward
40.  North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – small forward
41.  Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward 

ROUND THREE 

42.  Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) - ruck
43.  Hawthorn – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/balanced midfielder
44.  Carlton – Henry Walsh (VIC) - ruck
45.  Hawthorn – Connor Stone (VIC) – general forward
46.  Richmond (F/S) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward
47.  Melbourne – Isiah Winder (WA) – small forward/utility 
48.  Geelong – Shannon Neale (WA) - ruck
49.  GWS - PASS
50.  Brisbane – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/wing
51.  Western Bulldogs – Charlie Lazarro (VIC) – small forward/inside midfielder
52.  Port Adelaide – Chris Walker (WA) – medium forward
 
Pick 21 - Jack Carroll

Carroll is a classy 187cm inside/outside midfielder or half back who has been likened to Hugh McCluggage in the way he plays. It's probably 50/50 whether he gets to our first pick but I'm fairly confident the guys in the picks above suit their teams needs. 

Nevertheless Carroll would be an incredible get at our first pick who has pace (3.018 20m sprint), has good agility (8.67 seconds agility test), can jump (88cm vertical leap), and possess' a lethal left foot kick. He also is a very courageous player who isn't afraid to use his good overhead marking to go back with the flight of the ball, or crash open a pack despite his light frame of 76kg. He also doesn't turn 18 until December so there is plenty of room for development. Next year he'd be a fair chance to slot in on a half back flank in round 1 next to his ex East Fremantle teammate Rivers (also played footy with Jacko too), which his footy smarts, ball use, and physical tools should allow him to play early on.

Pick 24 - Bailey Laurie

I have us looking for a small forward with our second bid where we'd bid on Coleman from Brisbane and Gulden from Sydney but eventually ending up with 179cm high half forward Bailey Laurie who has been likened to Toby Greene or Zak Butters in the way he plays. He isn't overly explosive for a small forward but Laurie carves up the opposition with ball use, agility, smarts, and decision making. Laurie has the stamina (6:24 2km time trial) to work high up the ground where he always makes the best decision going inside 50, whether that's hitting up a lead or going for goal himself. Laurie has a tendency of knowing where the ball is going to drop in marking contests, and is a keen tackler when the ball is on the ground where he uses his work rate to harass defenders. Laurie likely would've spent a lot of time in the midfield this year which he is prolific by hand and foot and has great smarts around stoppages. 

There is a very high chance that Laurie will be available at one of our first 2 picks, and potentially at our second round pick. Will be another challenger for a round 1 spot where he will be competing with Spargo for that second small forward spot.

Pick 32 - Kaine Baldwin

This may be a little higher than some people expect but I think it's highly unlikely Baldwin be available at our next pick. On talent Baldwin is top 10 in this year draft which 2 years ago he was said to be the best key forward in this draft, however since he has done 2 ACL's on the same knee so there is obvious concerns about how his body will hold up. As a player Baldwin is a 193cm CHF who plays like Jesse Hogan (prime Hogan), but I liken him to Mitch Georgiadies who was in a similar situation to him at last years draft. Baldwin's best asset is his contested marking where he is very crafty 1v1 and can take towering packs marks. He also has an enormous engine which he uses at CHF to work really high up the ground where he gets involved in a lot of link up play and is a great kick going inside 50. He's very clean at ground level and was very quick off the mark pre-injury. Baldwin will likely go somewhere in the second round due to their being not much depth for key position players in this draft. He is the definition of a high risk/high reward player who will be given time to get his body right and develop which he can then look to break into the team when guys like Ben Brown, Tom MacDonald, and Max Gawn (Jackson moving into the ruck) get older.

Pick 47 - Isiah Winder

I have us biding on Rioli Jnr but then taking the 180cm Isiah Winder who plays like Sydney Stack. Winder who is touted to go in the third round could be one of the biggest steals of the draft which he has senior experience for Peel Thunder and boasts an enormous amount of X-Factor. Winder finished top 5 in every single test at the WA Combine (92cm vertical jump, 2.873 seconds 20m sprint, 8.18 seconds agility test) and is one of the best kicks in this years draft which he accurately weights his passes to his targets whether that is a spear or a chip pass. Winder can also play all around the ground either as a small/medium forward or defender, or in the midfield as well. Winder has all the talent of a first rounder but is projected to go later due to his lack of defensive work/appearing to become disinterested when the ball isn't near him at times. Winder would be a big round 1 bolter next year which I think he would be best suited to step in as a small/medium defender where he'd provide excellent ball use and speed off half back.

Overall

With our 4 picks we've added 3 small/medium runners with good pace and excellent ball use which is something we desperately need, as well as a long term key forward. All three of Carroll, Laurie, and Winder would be ready to play round 1 and could have an immediate impact. Funnily enough all three of those players can play as inside midfielders, saying that though if they were to play as an inside midfielder long term they would add something very different to what we currently have in our mix. Saying that Baldwin could well be the best player of the lot, and ultimately be a top 5 player from this draft if he can get back to his best form from his 2 ACL's surgeries

[Lucifers Hero 39,737]

Excellent work @Gawndog98.  Thanks.

Just to let you know that with the promotion of Lockhart we will only have 3 senior list spots so cannot use our current pick 50 (ie #47) in your excellent analysis.

[Gawndog98 363]

1 minute ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Excellent work @Gawndog98.  Thanks.

Just to let you know that with the promotion of Lockhart we will only have 3 senior list spots so cannot use our current pick 50 (ie #47) in your excellent analysis.

interesting, I did not account for that, I guess we will be using three picks then which will make it interesting to see whether we will try turn our 4 picks into 3 by trading up.

[ChaserJ 5,083]

Super effort @Gawndog98, well thought out & reasoned. Would be stoked if we walked away with any 3 of the 4 you’ve got coming to us.

I remember how excited JT was about Mitch Georgiadis when we though he might get to our pick, Baldwin’s injury history a bit different, but can see the parallels. 

Good stuff!

[dazzledavey36 54,861]

Great effort @Gawndog98

[Elwood 3184 1,301]

Agree with the compliments to  @Gawndog98. Great work!

A few issues for me. I think Adelaide will take Riley Thilthorpe with its first pick. He’s local and he’s versatile - can play ruck and key forward. 

Collingwood’s early draft position is currently picks 14 and 16. I don’t see therefore where you have come in with them using pick 17 and then exercising an NGA pick in McInnes. I’m expecting the Magpies to take the precaution of moving up with one pick and out with another to shore up its position with McInnes. 

I don’t have an issue with your two picks for Melbourne at 23 and 24 - they could go in many different directions depending on how earlier selections fall and we don’t have much control over them save a possible swap to improve position. I suspect if we could do such a thing, the change wouldn’t be earth shattering.

Baldwin is a highly speculative pick given his two ACLs. We have Max around to guide him but it’s an enormous risk for us to take. I think someone like Geelong would probably be better suited in time and patience for him to develop.

 Finally, we only have three draft picks so we won’t be using pick 50.

[Whispering_Jack 30,019]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:30 PM, Elwood 3184 said:

Baldwin is a highly speculative pick given his two ACLs. We have Max around to guide him but it’s an enormous risk for us to take. I think someone like Geelong would probably be better suited in time and patience for him to develop.

Somewhat intrigued so I checked up what the coach of the SA Under 18s said about him.

”He’s a gun and an unbelievable character. He’s too good not to be at an AFL club next year. When he’s fit he’s as good as Thilthorpe and Jones.” - SA under-18 coach Tony Bamford

A player with 2 ACLs before he turns 18 is something of a risk but the upside appears enormous. 

Who dares wins!

[Gawndog98 363]

16 hours ago, Elwood 3184 said:

Agree with the compliments to  @Gawndog98. Great work!

A few issues for me. I think Adelaide will take Riley Thilthorpe with its first pick. He’s local and he’s versatile - can play ruck and key forward. 

Collingwood’s early draft position is currently picks 14 and 16. I don’t see therefore where you have come in with them using pick 17 and then exercising an NGA pick in McInnes. I’m expecting the Magpies to take the precaution of moving up with one pick and out with another to shore up its position with McInnes. 

I don’t have an issue with your two picks for Melbourne at 23 and 24 - they could go in many different directions depending on how earlier selections fall and we don’t have much control over them save a possible swap to improve position. I suspect if we could do such a thing, the change wouldn’t be earth shattering.

Baldwin is a highly speculative pick given his two ACLs. We have Max around to guide him but it’s an enormous risk for us to take. I think someone like Geelong would probably be better suited in time and patience for him to develop.

 Finally, we only have three draft picks so we won’t be using pick 50.

Thanks mate, IMO I think MacDonald is the best player in the open pool which is why I have Adelaide taking him, I think it would be a mistake to not go best available at pick 1. I have a few doubts over Thilthorpe's pace/mobility as a key forward, I think he'll be much better but he kinda reminds me of Peter Wright a bit. 

I had GWS bidding on McInnes, sorry I probably should've made it more obvious, but agree I think on draft night I think they'll try move one of their first rounders and their future first for one of Essendon's picks to grab Cox or Reid. I think it's highly likely a McInnes bid comes before one of their first rounders so they'll be looking to move one of them. 

I think Baldwin's upside is worth it and he wouldn't have any pressure to play for us in the next few years, he'd be given time to develop. He was the best player at the under 16 champs and was seen as the best key position player in the pool (better than MacDonald, Thilthorpe, Grainger-Barrass, etc.) 

There is a slight chance that Baldwin or Winder doesn't get drafted and could slide through to the rookie draft. I think we might try move something like 19+28 for North's pick 11 to grab Macrae.

[Pulp Fritschon 738]

I think Baldwin is a very good chance to go in the first round. Good tall players are hard to find compared to other types. He is a risk no doubt so I think a team with multiple early picks will be the one to take a chance.  If GWS doesn't strike I think we will. We have shown that we don't mind taking a risk in the draft.

I might be wrong but I'd like to see him still on the board when our first pick comes. 

[ChaserJ 5,083]

Apparently HS have us taking Jake Bowey and Seamus Mitchell (a flyer!) with our 1st round picks in their latest phantom.

Profile on Mitchell here:

https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/seamus-mitchell/

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

On 11/23/2020 at 3:23 PM, Gawndog98 said:

Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below phantom draft. I'll be making more updates to it as it gets closer to the draft.
 
ROUND ONE

1.     Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward
2.     Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagain (VIC) – key forward
3.     North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
4.     Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender
5.     Hawthorn – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck
6.     Gold coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder
7.     Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder
8.     Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward
9.     Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
10.  Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender
11.  Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender
12.  Adelaide – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender
13.  GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility 
14.  North Melbourne – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility 
15.  Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder
16.  GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
17.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward
18.  Collingwood (NGA) – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder/general forward
19.  GWS – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward
20.  Richmond – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder
21.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
22.  Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward
23.  Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/balanced midfielder
24.  Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder
25.  Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender
26.  GWS – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small forward/outside midfielder
27.  St Kilda – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder

ROUND TWO 

28.  Adelaide – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder
29.  Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender
30.  Gold coast – PASS 
31.  Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender
32.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward
33.  GWS – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder
34.  North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder
35.  Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small forward
36.  Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender
37.  Richmond – Jackson Callow (TAS) – key forward
38.  Gold coast – PASS 
39.  Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward
40.  North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – small forward
41.  Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward 

ROUND THREE 

42.  Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) - ruck
43.  Hawthorn – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/balanced midfielder
44.  Carlton – Henry Walsh (VIC) - ruck
45.  Hawthorn – Connor Stone (VIC) – general forward
46.  Richmond (F/S) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward
47.  Melbourne – Isiah Winder (WA) – small forward/utility 
48.  Geelong – Shannon Neale (WA) - ruck
49.  GWS - PASS
50.  Brisbane – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/wing
51.  Western Bulldogs – Charlie Lazarro (VIC) – small forward/inside midfielder
52.  Port Adelaide – Chris Walker (WA) – medium forward
 
Pick 21 - Jack Carroll

Carroll is a classy 187cm inside/outside midfielder or half back who has been likened to Hugh McCluggage in the way he plays. It's probably 50/50 whether he gets to our first pick but I'm fairly confident the guys in the picks above suit their teams needs. 

Nevertheless Carroll would be an incredible get at our first pick who has pace (3.018 20m sprint), has good agility (8.67 seconds agility test), can jump (88cm vertical leap), and possess' a lethal left foot kick. He also is a very courageous player who isn't afraid to use his good overhead marking to go back with the flight of the ball, or crash open a pack despite his light frame of 76kg. He also doesn't turn 18 until December so there is plenty of room for development. Next year he'd be a fair chance to slot in on a half back flank in round 1 next to his ex East Fremantle teammate Rivers (also played footy with Jacko too), which his footy smarts, ball use, and physical tools should allow him to play early on.

Pick 24 - Bailey Laurie

I have us looking for a small forward with our second bid where we'd bid on Coleman from Brisbane and Gulden from Sydney but eventually ending up with 179cm high half forward Bailey Laurie who has been likened to Toby Greene or Zak Butters in the way he plays. He isn't overly explosive for a small forward but Laurie carves up the opposition with ball use, agility, smarts, and decision making. Laurie has the stamina (6:24 2km time trial) to work high up the ground where he always makes the best decision going inside 50, whether that's hitting up a lead or going for goal himself. Laurie has a tendency of knowing where the ball is going to drop in marking contests, and is a keen tackler when the ball is on the ground where he uses his work rate to harass defenders. Laurie likely would've spent a lot of time in the midfield this year which he is prolific by hand and foot and has great smarts around stoppages. 

There is a very high chance that Laurie will be available at one of our first 2 picks, and potentially at our second round pick. Will be another challenger for a round 1 spot where he will be competing with Spargo for that second small forward spot.

Pick 32 - Kaine Baldwin

This may be a little higher than some people expect but I think it's highly unlikely Baldwin be available at our next pick. On talent Baldwin is top 10 in this year draft which 2 years ago he was said to be the best key forward in this draft, however since he has done 2 ACL's on the same knee so there is obvious concerns about how his body will hold up. As a player Baldwin is a 193cm CHF who plays like Jesse Hogan (prime Hogan), but I liken him to Mitch Georgiadies who was in a similar situation to him at last years draft. Baldwin's best asset is his contested marking where he is very crafty 1v1 and can take towering packs marks. He also has an enormous engine which he uses at CHF to work really high up the ground where he gets involved in a lot of link up play and is a great kick going inside 50. He's very clean at ground level and was very quick off the mark pre-injury. Baldwin will likely go somewhere in the second round due to their being not much depth for key position players in this draft. He is the definition of a high risk/high reward player who will be given time to get his body right and develop which he can then look to break into the team when guys like Ben Brown, Tom MacDonald, and Max Gawn (Jackson moving into the ruck) get older.

Pick 47 - Isiah Winder

I have us biding on Rioli Jnr but then taking the 180cm Isiah Winder who plays like Sydney Stack. Winder who is touted to go in the third round could be one of the biggest steals of the draft which he has senior experience for Peel Thunder and boasts an enormous amount of X-Factor. Winder finished top 5 in every single test at the WA Combine (92cm vertical jump, 2.873 seconds 20m sprint, 8.18 seconds agility test) and is one of the best kicks in this years draft which he accurately weights his passes to his targets whether that is a spear or a chip pass. Winder can also play all around the ground either as a small/medium forward or defender, or in the midfield as well. Winder has all the talent of a first rounder but is projected to go later due to his lack of defensive work/appearing to become disinterested when the ball isn't near him at times. Winder would be a big round 1 bolter next year which I think he would be best suited to step in as a small/medium defender where he'd provide excellent ball use and speed off half back.

Overall

With our 4 picks we've added 3 small/medium runners with good pace and excellent ball use which is something we desperately need, as well as a long term key forward. All three of Carroll, Laurie, and Winder would be ready to play round 1 and could have an immediate impact. Funnily enough all three of those players can play as inside midfielders, saying that though if they were to play as an inside midfielder long term they would add something very different to what we currently have in our mix. Saying that Baldwin could well be the best player of the lot, and ultimately be a top 5 player from this draft if he can get back to his best form from his 2 ACL's surgeries

 

Are we locked in at 21 and 24 barring any trades?

There was discussion here the other day we would have picks 25 and 26

[spirit of norm smith 16,441]

On 11/23/2020 at 2:23 PM, Gawndog98 said:

Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below phantom draft. I'll be making more updates to it as it gets closer to the draft.
 
ROUND ONE

1.     Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward
2.     Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagain (VIC) – key forward
3.     North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
4.     Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender
5.     Hawthorn – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck
6.     Gold coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder
7.     Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder
8.     Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward
9.     Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward
10.  Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender
11.  Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender
12.  Adelaide – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender
13.  GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility 
14.  North Melbourne – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility 
15.  Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder
16.  GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
17.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward
18.  Collingwood (NGA) – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder/general forward
19.  GWS – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward
20.  Richmond – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder
21.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender
22.  Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward
23.  Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/balanced midfielder
24.  Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder
25.  Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender
26.  GWS – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small forward/outside midfielder
27.  St Kilda – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder

ROUND TWO 

28.  Adelaide – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder
29.  Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender
30.  Gold coast – PASS 
31.  Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender
32.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward
33.  GWS – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder
34.  North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder
35.  Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small forward
36.  Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender
37.  Richmond – Jackson Callow (TAS) – key forward
38.  Gold coast – PASS 
39.  Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward
40.  North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – small forward
41.  Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward 

ROUND THREE 

42.  Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) - ruck
43.  Hawthorn – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/balanced midfielder
44.  Carlton – Henry Walsh (VIC) - ruck
45.  Hawthorn – Connor Stone (VIC) – general forward
46.  Richmond (F/S) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward
47.  Melbourne – Isiah Winder (WA) – small forward/utility 
48.  Geelong – Shannon Neale (WA) - ruck
49.  GWS - PASS
50.  Brisbane – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/wing
51.  Western Bulldogs – Charlie Lazarro (VIC) – small forward/inside midfielder
52.  Port Adelaide – Chris Walker (WA) – medium forward
 
Pick 21 - Jack Carroll

Carroll is a classy 187cm inside/outside midfielder or half back who has been likened to Hugh McCluggage in the way he plays. It's probably 50/50 whether he gets to our first pick but I'm fairly confident the guys in the picks above suit their teams needs. 

Nevertheless Carroll would be an incredible get at our first pick who has pace (3.018 20m sprint), has good agility (8.67 seconds agility test), can jump (88cm vertical leap), and possess' a lethal left foot kick. He also is a very courageous player who isn't afraid to use his good overhead marking to go back with the flight of the ball, or crash open a pack despite his light frame of 76kg. He also doesn't turn 18 until December so there is plenty of room for development. Next year he'd be a fair chance to slot in on a half back flank in round 1 next to his ex East Fremantle teammate Rivers (also played footy with Jacko too), which his footy smarts, ball use, and physical tools should allow him to play early on.

Pick 24 - Bailey Laurie

I have us looking for a small forward with our second bid where we'd bid on Coleman from Brisbane and Gulden from Sydney but eventually ending up with 179cm high half forward Bailey Laurie who has been likened to Toby Greene or Zak Butters in the way he plays. He isn't overly explosive for a small forward but Laurie carves up the opposition with ball use, agility, smarts, and decision making. Laurie has the stamina (6:24 2km time trial) to work high up the ground where he always makes the best decision going inside 50, whether that's hitting up a lead or going for goal himself. Laurie has a tendency of knowing where the ball is going to drop in marking contests, and is a keen tackler when the ball is on the ground where he uses his work rate to harass defenders. Laurie likely would've spent a lot of time in the midfield this year which he is prolific by hand and foot and has great smarts around stoppages. 

There is a very high chance that Laurie will be available at one of our first 2 picks, and potentially at our second round pick. Will be another challenger for a round 1 spot where he will be competing with Spargo for that second small forward spot.

Pick 32 - Kaine Baldwin

This may be a little higher than some people expect but I think it's highly unlikely Baldwin be available at our next pick. On talent Baldwin is top 10 in this year draft which 2 years ago he was said to be the best key forward in this draft, however since he has done 2 ACL's on the same knee so there is obvious concerns about how his body will hold up. As a player Baldwin is a 193cm CHF who plays like Jesse Hogan (prime Hogan), but I liken him to Mitch Georgiadies who was in a similar situation to him at last years draft. Baldwin's best asset is his contested marking where he is very crafty 1v1 and can take towering packs marks. He also has an enormous engine which he uses at CHF to work really high up the ground where he gets involved in a lot of link up play and is a great kick going inside 50. He's very clean at ground level and was very quick off the mark pre-injury. Baldwin will likely go somewhere in the second round due to their being not much depth for key position players in this draft. He is the definition of a high risk/high reward player who will be given time to get his body right and develop which he can then look to break into the team when guys like Ben Brown, Tom MacDonald, and Max Gawn (Jackson moving into the ruck) get older.

Pick 47 - Isiah Winder

I have us biding on Rioli Jnr but then taking the 180cm Isiah Winder who plays like Sydney Stack. Winder who is touted to go in the third round could be one of the biggest steals of the draft which he has senior experience for Peel Thunder and boasts an enormous amount of X-Factor. Winder finished top 5 in every single test at the WA Combine (92cm vertical jump, 2.873 seconds 20m sprint, 8.18 seconds agility test) and is one of the best kicks in this years draft which he accurately weights his passes to his targets whether that is a spear or a chip pass. Winder can also play all around the ground either as a small/medium forward or defender, or in the midfield as well. Winder has all the talent of a first rounder but is projected to go later due to his lack of defensive work/appearing to become disinterested when the ball isn't near him at times. Winder would be a big round 1 bolter next year which I think he would be best suited to step in as a small/medium defender where he'd provide excellent ball use and speed off half back.

Overall

With our 4 picks we've added 3 small/medium runners with good pace and excellent ball use which is something we desperately need, as well as a long term key forward. All three of Carroll, Laurie, and Winder would be ready to play round 1 and could have an immediate impact. Funnily enough all three of those players can play as inside midfielders, saying that though if they were to play as an inside midfielder long term they would add something very different to what we currently have in our mix. Saying that Baldwin could well be the best player of the lot, and ultimately be a top 5 player from this draft if he can get back to his best form from his 2 ACL's surgeries

Great work @Gawndog98.  Very well thought out and time to think about options. Bids also worked in like my prior effort. Gulden is worthy of a bid.

Carroll, Laurie, Baldwin and Winder.  All would fit in nicely.  That’s a great result. But Carroll is unlucky to last. I sure hope he does. ?

I had Baldwin going to GWS to replace Cameron as a future full forward. Baldwin is a hard one given he was a star then had two knee recos.  

However we now can only take 3 more players in the draft to put in our primary list. So it’s 18,19,28.  

[DeeSpencer 25,678]

2 hours ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

Are we locked in at 21 and 24 barring any trades?

There was discussion here the other day we would have picks 25 and 26

Gawndog has us bidding on Coleman and Gulden from the Lions and Swans pushing our second pick out 2 more. 
 

Whilst our first pick will be pushed back by at least 3 spots and possibly more. Could be 21/22, could be 25/26, or could be as above where we bid on some of the players 

[rjay 24,917]

3 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Apparently HS have us taking Jake Bowey and Seamus Mitchell (a flyer!) with our 1st round picks in their latest phantom.

Profile on Mitchell here:

https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/seamus-mitchell/

If he's not clean air ground level then I would be concerned...couldn't see that being a first round trait.

[ChaserJ 5,083]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

If he's not clean air ground level then I would be concerned...couldn't see that being a first round trait.

It's an interesting one. I haven't seen him play nor seen his name mentioned anywhere in the first 30. I agree with the overall player type (and traits) targeted here, but hard to form a judgement without seeing what the recruiters might have seen. 

Wonder what sort of intel has informed the phantom draft and whether there are whispers that placed Mitchell with us. Seems too left field to be completely arbitrary.

 

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

14 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

It's an interesting one. I haven't seen him play nor seen his name mentioned anywhere in the first 30. I agree with the overall player type (and traits) targeted here, but hard to form a judgement without seeing what the recruiters might have seen. 

Wonder what sort of intel has informed the phantom draft and whether there are whispers that placed Mitchell with us. Seems too left field to be completely arbitrary.

 

He's fairly highly rated and I think most have him in top 30 calculations.  If the narrative is correct that we moved up to target some under-exposed Vic talent then Mitchell fills that narrative as he was just scratching the surface last year and projected to have a breakout NAB league season.    He fits with what we need and with a lot of players of that ilk - Coleman and Newchurch examples - tied up to NGA teams, he makes a lot of sense as a pick - super quick and with a lot of upside/development potential!

Edited November 24, 2020 by goodoil