AFL Braces for Nightmare 2021 Scenario

[dworship 3,342]

1 hour ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

What the world haven't got its head around yet . . . slow training coming . . . 

The virus has exposed a deeply flawed economic and social model that prioritises excessive opportunism and profiteering at the expense of the peoples' welfare and wellbeing. The fetishisation of money over people is the allegory of the emperor's new clothes for the 21st century. We are all naked now. 

Ever has it been so.

[Biffen 12,943]

29 minutes ago, AmDamDemon said:

Haha, mate ideas don’t come about unless we talk about stuff. Very weak response IMO.

without derailing further, look at AFL. It is bigger business, flashier and more profit driven than ever. Do we enjoy it more than our forebears in the 50s or 80s did? I doubt it. What matters and what we love is footy, but we are sold the flashiness and     spectacle and we lap it up without it really adding much more to our passion for our teams.

In reference to the AFL I agree entirely.

In reference to the entire world economy, which has existed since evolution, there is no way to break it down and rebuild it into an equal or utopian system that won't be re-corrupted to favour some at the expense of others.But those that chase profit sacrifice other things in their life.Those that bemoan "the system" or "the government" really are too lazy to even go fishing off a pier.My response was directed at a comment I took as being a far more general societal complaint than just the way the AFL has become a commercial and media sewerage system.i have no problem with the discussion of ideas.Vague swipes at "the system "are not really ideas.They are complaints.

[Clayton van Oliver 1,823]

9 minutes ago, Biffen said:

In reference to the AFL I agree entirely.

In reference to the entire world economy, which has existed since evolution, there is no way to break it down and rebuild it into an equal or utopian system that won't be re-corrupted to favour some at the expense of others.But those that chase profit sacrifice other things in their life.Those that bemoan "the system" or "the government" really are too lazy to even go fishing off a pier.My response was directed at a comment I took as being a far more general societal complaint than just the way the AFL has become a commercial and media sewerage system.i have no problem with the discussion of ideas.Vague swipes at "the system "are not really ideas.They are complaints.

Nice response ?

 

indeed the key is to just enjoy going fishing 

[deebug 1,754]

I don't bloody care if we have to all wear hasmat suits in team colours, no way no how are people going to miss out on another season of footy.

Victoria has had it's wack, no more?

[Rogue 585]

4 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The problem is that's way below break even point

That's actually around the break-even point, depending on staffing and whether you close some parts of the stadium (eg. some of the bays on level 4, some of the food outlets, etc)....and that's based on the old 'business as usual' business model at the 'G.

I'm not sure there was much incentive to change the financial model previously, given only a handful of the 40+ games scheduled at the 'G every year were getting crowds of under 20K.

However, I'm sure with a long summer to think about how to reduce costs/increase revenue, they'd be able to do better next year if faced with a 2020 with restricted crowd numbers.

For every $1 increase on the old model's profit margin it's an increase of $20K per 20,000 attendees, and $200K over 10 home games. (A $5 increase p/p equates to $1M).

Edited August 13, 2020 by Rogue

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

43 minutes ago, Rogue said:

That's actually around the break-even point, depending on staffing and whether you close some parts of the stadium (eg. some of the bays on level 4, some of the food outlets, etc)....and that's based on the old 'business as usual' business model at the 'G.

I'm not sure there was much incentive to change the financial model previously, given only a handful of the 40+ games scheduled at the 'G every year were getting crowds of under 20K.

However, I'm sure with a long summer to think about how to reduce costs/increase revenue, they'd be able to do better next year if faced with a 2020 with restricted crowd numbers.

For every $1 increase on the old model's profit margin it's an increase of $20K per 20,000 attendees, and $200K over 10 home games. (A $5 increase p/p equates to $1M).

Break even points are influenced by many factors.

Sure you can break even at the MCG with 20k IF they are all paying attendees

IF you give priority to MFC, MCC and AFL members gate revenue = zero

Sell a few beers and pies but you could probably make more at a busy Bunnings sausage sizzle.

 

[Rogue 585]

11 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Break even points are influenced by many factors.

Sure you can break even at the MCG with 20k IF they are all paying attendees

IF you give priority to MFC, MCC and AFL members gate revenue = zero

Sell a few beers and pies but you could probably make more at a busy Bunnings sausage sizzle.

 

They are indeed variable, and I know for a fact that we've broken even at well under 20K before*

*and obviously without them all being paying attendees.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Rogue

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

2 minutes ago, Rogue said:

They are indeed variable, and I know for a fact that we've broken even at well under 20K, so I'm not sure why you said that it's way below break even point...

source please

[Rogue 585]

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

source please

It's not from the internets and I don't have a source I can point you to.

What's your source that 20,000 is only the break even point if they are all paying attendees?

[DubDee 25,889]

Can we just deal with the freaking nightmare of 2020 first?  
 

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

10 hours ago, drysdale demon said:

Why did I open this thread up? F...ing hell

Well you can imagine my disappointment. I figured the AFL’s 2021 nightmare scenario was Melbourne going back to back. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,846]

11 hours ago, deebug said:

I don't bloody care if we have to all wear hasmat suits in team colours, no way no how are people going to miss out on another season of footy.

Victoria has had it's wack, no more?

I agree.

I won't be able to hack another season of watching QLD, SA and WA residents enjoy their freedom at the footy while we can't even cross the road without a mask.

Surely there will be crowds in VIC next year, even if we have to wear masks to the footy.

Victorians are going to have to live with the virus next year. We can't stay at home forever FCS!

[faultydet 7,594]

15 hours ago, AmDamDemon said:

People will jump on straw men arguments against this (like ‘tell us how socialism will fix this’) but you are correct. This is nothing to do with political agenda but the kind of historically observable transition that happens in societies when our understandings and functions of labour, resources and economy change. This is exactly what is happening now. Change is the only guaranteed thing and to immediately reject alternative ideas is to worsen the shock of the change for yourself.

Fetishisation of money is a great way to see it. And just like fetishes, not everybody has it. I’d wager that most of us want all of us to be able to live happy lives, and constantly striving for growth and profit has proven itself inept at achieving this.

You'll get none of that with socialism.

"Straw man arguments" Jesus people are thick.

[dl4e 5,851]

I would probably open everything up again. These lockdowns are just killing the economy and many peoples livelihoods. What is the suicide rate at the momment and how many people cannot or won't get care for other problems such as cancer. How many cases in so called covid deaths especially in elder people are actually due to other reasons but because they have contracted covid their death is simply put down as one. 

This may sound silly to some but I believe the so called cure is worse than the disease.

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

6 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I would probably open everything up again. These lockdowns are just killing the economy and many peoples livelihoods. What is the suicide rate at the momment and how many people cannot or won't get care for other problems such as cancer. How many cases in so called covid deaths especially in elder people are actually due to other reasons but because they have contracted covid their death is simply put down as one. 

This may sound silly to some but I believe the so called cure is worse than the disease.

100% correct.  The suicide rate is through the roof sadly.  Add in the new cases of depression and anxiety and god knows what else  and its a much bigger disaster than the virus.

Protect the vulnerable and open things up.   Locking people in their homes and destroying their immune systems is diabolical, if not evil.

Scott Morrison needs to show some leadership.

[wretched.sylph 164]

17 hours ago, grazman said:

I won't even go into how you immunise 7.8 billion people. 

just wait a while: that number's sure to come down

[drdrake 3,178]

18 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

100% correct.  The suicide rate is through the roof sadly.  Add in the new cases of depression and anxiety and god knows what else  and its a much bigger disaster than the virus.

Protect the vulnerable and open things up.   Locking people in their homes and destroying their immune systems is diabolical, if not evil.

Scott Morrison needs to show some leadership.

Scott Morrison can just sit back and watch a State Labour government self destruct in the upcoming months.  As long as NSW doesn't get out of control the PM coudn't care about Victoria.

Health in general not just mental health is a massive issue.  On top of the mental health issues you will have a big percentage of overweight especially in kids, people are neglecting to go to their doctor so early detection of Cancer and Heart Disease which can save people lives.  The flow on effect from these harsh lockdowns are going to be with us for many years.

On crowds, you are going to have a good percentage of the population that will not want to attend big mass gatherings until there is a vaccine.  We are lucky with the MCG that hopefully by next March/Apr we can get 25,000 thousand to a game then up to 50K is the virus doesn't take off again.

Must admit, getting back to the MCG to watch the Dees is the last thing on my priority list at the moment, just want to see some sort of normality for work, community sport and exercise. 

Edited August 14, 2020 by drdrake

[special robert 438]

I am making plans to go to Adelaide for the 2021 season If there looks like being no community football here in 2021

I have a very promising 14 yr old and he can't go..another year with no junior football ....and no school.

We were going to go to Darwin and play there but you have to pay $2500 each for the two week NT isolation holiday.

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

Based on the statement below and at an Rt rate of 0.5 over a rolling two week average beginning today at 400 cases we can look at another possible 8 weeks in lockdown before you hit 20 a day.  That's depressing to say the least.

 

"Sutton said his message to Victorians was to “keep at it” and warned that restrictions would not be lifted until case numbers were much, much lower.

We know that numbers are heading down but we could not conceive of opening up with 200 cases a day. We couldn’t do it with 100 cases a day. We have to head for the lowest possible number, including zero.”

From Vic Govt Press conference today

Edited August 14, 2020 by Diamond_Jim

[Demon trucker 1,800]

20 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

It's a bit like the South Asian farmer.  One failed monsoon, you just barely get barely.  Two failed monsoons, you go into debt just to eat and have to borrow for seed stock for the next season.  Three failed monsoons, your children die.

Personally I'm an optimist about vaccines by 2021, and so long as a reasonable effort is made to not balls everything up until then, first-tranche vaccine targeting can do a lot to contain risk by innoculating major vulnerable and vector populations like transport, retail, crowded facility/factory workers, educators and the all-important health and personal service sectors.

For what it is worth, I monitor vaccine news very closely and the progress is legitimate.  Don't know what the borsch is going on in Russia though.

Let's hope the Russian vaccine is safe, a Rogue country was needed, will get real life data in real time, today's world is a nanny state,  the the vaccine makers  will stand by  and Let  people die, just to cover their own [censored].

Edited August 14, 2020 by don't make me angry

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

3 hours ago, faultydet said:

You'll get none of that with socialism.

"Straw man arguments" Jesus people are thick.

And some people have no capacity for nuance. 

The global economy need not be doomed to a choice between “capitalism” or “socialism”. Most economies operate on a hybrid of these systems. If Australia decided to suddenly abandon it’s socialist policies (health care, high minimum-wage, education, housing, old-age pension, jobseeker/keeper, emergency services) I guarantee you would suffer the consequences, even if you’re of the naive opinion you don’t personally rely on these things. You may very well be some sort of successful capitalist who doesn’t need a “hand-out”, but all wealth is built on societies that function cohesively. And no society does that without an aspect of socialist policy. 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Mel Bourne

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

One thing that has been bugging me about these stage three vaccine trials is that they are being done against a community background of masks, lockdowns, PPE physical distancing, limited movement etc etc when what we need is for the vaccine to be effective in an "open world" environment.

One assumes they model the different scenarios but it can't be easy.

[drdrake 3,178]

42 minutes ago, special robert said:

I am making plans to go to Adelaide for the 2021 season If there looks like being no community football here in 2021

I have a very promising 14 yr old and he can't go..another year with no junior football ....and no school.

We were going to go to Darwin and play there but you have to pay $2500 each for the two week NT isolation holiday.

I see WA is going to have a new act of Parliament to keep control of their borders after Clive Palmer took them to High court.  I think NSW is $3000 a person for 14 days hotel quarantine.  Be interesting, a lot of business will close doors if they can't get the summer holiday trade. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,868]

3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Based on the statement below and at an Rt rate of 0.5 over a rolling two week average beginning today at 400 cases we can look at another possible 8 weeks in lockdown before you hit 20 a day.  That's depressing to say the least.

 

"Sutton said his message to Victorians was to “keep at it” and warned that restrictions would not be lifted until case numbers were much, much lower.

We know that numbers are heading down but we could not conceive of opening up with 200 cases a day. We couldn’t do it with 100 cases a day. We have to head for the lowest possible number, including zero.”

From Vic Govt Press conference today

Another critical figure to get down is 'Active Cases'.  There are currently about 7,800.  One would think it needs to be 100-200, especially if adding 20 per day.  But Active Cases is proving to be a stubborn number to shift.  

After nearly 2 weeks of stage 4 it has barely moved.  Three weeks ago we were getting 500 -700 new cases a day.  On an average 14 day recovery cycle with 300-400 new cases of late the Active Cases should have been coming down by several hundred a day.

Gov't can't ease restrictions with thousands of people walking around with it, even with a week or two of zero new cases.  So, I see buckley's chance of restrictions easing any time soon.  As awful as it may sound, we may still have some level of restrictions at Christmas.

Every chance the AFL has been briefed by the Government that some sort of restrictions will be in place next year. 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[Little Goffy 14,577]

4 hours ago, faultydet said:

You'll get none of that with socialism.

"Straw man arguments" Jesus people are thick.

I think you'll find that reacting to all critiques of contemporary political economy as if they are an endorsement of socialism is, quite precisely, a straw man argument.