On 6/28/2023 at 3:52 PM, demon3165 said:

Easily explained over to you Simon

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/06/28/the-area-of-melbournes-game-that-will-haunt-them-in-september/

FWIW....

Within this Hoyne mentions that there are two premiership metrics that 14 of the last 17 premiers have met.

> Ability to Restrict the Oppo's inside 50s;  and

> Ability to restrict the oppo from scoring once they do get inside 50.

The 14 premiers have all ranked in the top 6 in doing so.... in both of these.

There are only two clubs presently sitting in the top 6 in both of these metrics...

The Power & The Demons.

The Pies aren't there at present.

Edited June 29, 20231 yr by Demon Dynasty

1 hour ago, Demon Dynasty said:

FWIW....

Within this Hoyne mentions that there are two premiership metrics that 14 of the last 17 premiers have met.

> Ability to Restrict the Oppo's inside 50s;  and

> Ability to restrict the oppo from scoring once they do get inside 50.

The 14 premiers have all ranked in the top 6 in doing so.... in both of these.

There are only two clubs presently sitting in the top 6 in both of these metrics...

The Power & The Demons.

The Pies aren't there at present.

And how many games are we behind them? You can stick with stat's, I prefer to judge on what I see.

34 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

And how many games are we behind them? You can stick with stat's, I prefer to judge on what I see.

Not sticking with anything here they're not my metrics.

Pretty sure most here can and do do the eyes thing, along with some numbers.  It's a choice thing.  Some like to look and some don't.

Each to there own mate

Wasn't sure where to put this but @Bombay Airconditioning mentioned this hame from 2017 against West Coast in Perth.

Highlights: West Coast v Melbourne
https://www.afl.com.au/video/145001

It's really interesting to watch our ball movement and our we explode off half back and slice the Eagles' defensive set up.

We ourselves are equally cut up with whole ground transition against us without touching the footy, but given where the Eagles defensive web went and their contest game that won them a flag in 2018 and then where our game evolved too in terms of defence, to now where it combines a strong structure behind the ball, along with scoring from turnover and exploding off half back.

This game feels like the game has gone full circle since 2017. And I know we failed to make the 8 and West Coast took our spot that year, but ball movement wise in a high pressure game, it's a fascinating artefact.

2 hours ago, A F said:

Wasn't sure where to put this but @Bombay Airconditioning mentioned this hame from 2017 against West Coast in Perth.

Highlights: West Coast v Melbourne
https://www.afl.com.au/video/145001

It's really interesting to watch our ball movement and our we explode off half back and slice the Eagles' defensive set up.

We ourselves are equally cut up with whole ground transition against us without touching the footy, but given where the Eagles defensive web went and their contest game that won them a flag in 2018 and then where our game evolved too in terms of defence, to now where it combines a strong structure behind the ball, along with scoring from turnover and exploding off half back.

This game feels like the game has gone full circle since 2017. And I know we failed to make the 8 and West Coast took our spot that year, but ball movement wise in a high pressure game, it's a fascinating artefact.

I remember on the night I woke the whole house up when TMac kicked that goal. Looking at him gesture for everyone to get back makes me think the 6, 6 , 6 rule wasn’t in play yet.

Pedo played well and Gawn was beardless.

Got goosebumps watching that again. Thanks for posting that.

1 minute ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I remember on the night I woke the whole house up when TMac kicked that goal. Looking at him gesture for everyone to get back makes me think the 6, 6 , 6 rule wasn’t in play yet.

Pedo played well and Gawn was beardless.

Got goosebumps watching that again. Thanks for posting that.

6-6-6 came in at the start of 2019. 👍

Edited July 2, 20231 yr by A F

11 minutes ago, A F said:

6-6-6 came in at the start of 2019. 👍

It came in during a time where we were adding +1 and sometimes +2 (the so called inside sliders off the back of the square) at the contest.

Interestingly, instead of trying to find other ways of adding numbers to contests, we went the other way, and used our superior contest players in Clarry, Trac and Viney to give up a number at the contest, to generate a +1 behind the ball.

A potentially sliding doors moment that change to the rule.

The rule served us well in the 2021 GF, especially the 3rd qtr.

It’s all a bit too soon still but as each week goes by I grow increasingly concerned that, without substantial change, we can’t take what we’re dominating (most things) and add what we lack (an ability to score). 

I think we have to accept doing worse in some areas (territory, stoppage) to try to improve our major weakness. 

Similarly, I also think we need to reflect on whether certain role players can be replaced with alternatives who replace the role player to enough of an extent, but then add something else. The player I’m thinking of here is ANB. Can we sacrifice some of his defence and pressure with someone who can add an ability to use the ball on offence and hurt our opponent more?

What is the game plan??? Bomb it long & hope Brown, Gawn , Grundy mark it then see none of our small fwds try to crum and allow the opposition walk the ball out!

10 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

It’s all a bit too soon still but as each week goes by I grow increasingly concerned that, without substantial change, we can’t take what we’re dominating (most things) and add what we lack (an ability to score). 

I think we have to accept doing worse in some areas (territory, stoppage) to try to improve our major weakness. 

Similarly, I also think we need to reflect on whether certain role players can be replaced with alternatives who replace the role player to enough of an extent, but then add something else. The player I’m thinking of here is ANB. Can we sacrifice some of his defence and pressure with someone who can add an ability to use the ball on offence and hurt our opponent more?

Goody has too much faith in the system and his players. If he doesn't tinker with it and reassess players then it's going to be a wasted year. He appears to be stubborn. It's been obvious for weeks now that we need to work on accuracy for goal and some players are out of form or not effective. Can't understand how Chandler gets a game at present or why other players from Casey aren't considered. We need a shake up. Brown needs to be told to stop going for marks one handed he did it twice yesterday for not effect. Once Clarry comes back play Petracca predominantly as a forward, bring back Roo and consider using some of our better kicks up forward eg Bowey, Salem or McVee. We have to get the hacks out and better ball users in.  Goody needs to show some emotion at the presser sometimes otherwise skip them sometimes and let's hear from some of the assistants. 

11 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

It’s all a bit too soon still but as each week goes by I grow increasingly concerned that, without substantial change, we can’t take what we’re dominating (most things) and add what we lack (an ability to score). 

I think we have to accept doing worse in some areas (territory, stoppage) to try to improve our major weakness. 

Similarly, I also think we need to reflect on whether certain role players can be replaced with alternatives who replace the role player to enough of an extent, but then add something else. The player I’m thinking of here is ANB. Can we sacrifice some of his defence and pressure with someone who can add an ability to use the ball on offence and hurt our opponent more?

Titan I think there’s a few role players positions that should be looked at to try and make us better. 

Our game plan has clearly been worked out. We like to press high and turn over within our half of the ground and all the opposition need to do is flood our backline. Even if we bring the ball to ground there is no room to move for the smalls. 73 inside 50s sounds impressive but these are mostly garbage entries. 
 

Opposition need to turn the ball over maybe 6 times a game at our half forward line to kick over our press and score easy goals out the back to beat us at the moment. 
 

it looks exactly like our 2019 game plan. We’ve seen this movie before. 

3 hours ago, Pipefitter said:

Our game plan has clearly been worked out. We like to press high and turn over within our half of the ground and all the opposition need to do is flood our backline. Even if we bring the ball to ground there is no room to move for the smalls. 73 inside 50s sounds impressive but these are mostly garbage entries. 
 

Opposition need to turn the ball over maybe 6 times a game at our half forward line to kick over our press and score easy goals out the back to beat us at the moment. 
 

it looks exactly like our 2019 game plan. We’ve seen this movie before. 

The oddest thing just occurred to me about our game plan.  In a sense its like a picture formed by folding a paper about the middle resulting in a mirror image.

Our foward play is all but exactly what we try to force opposition teams to do. Our defenders deny opponents fowards arial superiority, we force the ball wide to the flanks.. We pressure the ball.  We deny the corridor and rebound into attack...   The most bizarre thing then seems to occur once we get past the middle is we adopt all of those attributes. We try to get the ball from the arial entries  ( aka bombing ) only to end up going into the flanks and pockets ourselves. 

You have to ask....if we dont think having the ball towards the boundary is beneficial for our opponents in their fwd 50...why would we suppose it will work for us ??

We seem keen leading to pockets when really you should be leading out of them.

Strange game...our style of footy.

51 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

The oddest thing just occurred to me about our game plan.  In a sense its like a picture formed by folding a paper about the middle resulting in a mirror image.

Our foward play is all but exactly what we try to force opposition teams to do. Our defenders deny opponents fowards arial superiority, we force the ball wide to the flanks.. We pressure the ball.  We deny the corridor and rebound into attack...   The most bizarre thing then seems to occur once we get past the middle is we adopt all of those attributes. We try to get the ball from the arial entries  ( aka bombing ) only to end up going into the flanks and pockets ourselves. 

You have to ask....if we dont think having the ball towards the boundary is beneficial for our opponents in their fwd 50...why would we suppose it will work for us ??

We seem keen leading to pockets when really you should be leading out of them.

Strange game...our style of footy.

This is something I’ve often pondered over the last few years. We love having numbers behind the ball because it makes it harder to score. Yet we invite numbers into our forward line through slow ball movement, making it harder to score.

I understand that we are playing the percentages and it’s minimising risk but it must suck the life out of the players. 

I think it’s especially evident with someone like Kade Chandler, comes into the side and plays with all the freedom in the world and kicks goals, then slowly the focus shifts to defensive effort and the goals dry up.

Ultimately, the goal is to win flags but if we are unwatchable all year to make it happen, I just think it kills the mood

 

Edited July 3, 20231 yr by BW511

3 hours ago, beelzebub said:

The oddest thing just occurred to me about our game plan.  In a sense its like a picture formed by folding a paper about the middle resulting in a mirror image.

Our foward play is all but exactly what we try to force opposition teams to do. Our defenders deny opponents fowards arial superiority, we force the ball wide to the flanks.. We pressure the ball.  We deny the corridor and rebound into attack...   The most bizarre thing then seems to occur once we get past the middle is we adopt all of those attributes. We try to get the ball from the arial entries  ( aka bombing ) only to end up going into the flanks and pockets ourselves. 

You have to ask....if we dont think having the ball towards the boundary is beneficial for our opponents in their fwd 50...why would we suppose it will work for us ??

We seem keen leading to pockets when really you should be leading out of them.

Strange game...our style of footy.

100%.
We try to force the oppo into high dump kicks.
But we do it to ourselves on purpose.
Wait till the forward line is full of both teams players and then dump it on the big forwards head while hoping Kozzie and co. can work their magic hard up on the boundary surrounded by a dozen opposition players.
Cause they all know where it's going as well.

11 hours ago, samcantstandya said:

Goody has too much faith in the system and his players. If he doesn't tinker with it and reassess players then it's going to be a wasted year. He appears to be stubborn. It's been obvious for weeks now that we need to work on accuracy for goal and some players are out of form or not effective. Can't understand how Chandler gets a game at present or why other players from Casey aren't considered. We need a shake up. Brown needs to be told to stop going for marks one handed he did it twice yesterday for not effect. Once Clarry comes back play Petracca predominantly as a forward, bring back Roo and consider using some of our better kicks up forward eg Bowey, Salem or McVee. We have to get the hacks out and better ball users in.  Goody needs to show some emotion at the presser sometimes otherwise skip them sometimes and let's hear from some of the assistants. 

You can’t take Salem or McVee from defence, they’re simply too good at it. Bowey I’d be happy to try forward 

An interesting statistical (?gold) mine.

But I agree with the sentiment: 

 

 

https://t.co/8778tcz1r0

Wasn't sure where to put this... may have been posted already so mods maybe delete this if you are aware of it elsewhere pls...

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/why-a-forgotten-forward-can-be-the-missing-piece-to-melbourne-s-premiership-puzzle-20230629-p5dkew.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2PvJel6pXvV7M_IJ5ODG24dk78dOukQUbzsRtn7Q79FLwo26FZN5Uk-fU#Echobox=1688265547

Considering the system approach to everything the demons do, it would not surprise me if the plan has been all along for BBB to prepare himself for his post bye return and was also planned for him to take JVRs spot. I think many would agree it was/is unlikely for JVR to get through the full season in the AFL. Fritta out makes things difficult, but I think they will stick to the plan in this space, with actual learnings from last year. It’s quite plausible that the trials will be wrapped up and the true team and method will become standard. As much as I don’t like it, I think Melky will fill Frittas spot, and unfortunately Harmes will remain in the spot left by sparrow who moves to Oliver’s. Both will play the exact same role all be it at a lesser level. Chandler and spargo will dual off for that HFF with Chandler seemingly in favour. When Oliver, Fritta return all will be an upgrade of course and just fit back into the system. All other positions are solid and highly unlikely to be changed. It’s just not Goodwins go. FWIW I’d rather Jordan take over from Harmes. The sub will be interesting. But unlikely to be an untried player so expect spargo, even though he’s possibly a one position player.

I have been surprised with how we chose to deploy Gawn and Grundy this year, typically leaving one as a forward and one as a follower. I thought we may have tried to get both between the arcs, with one a kick behind play, offering two chop out options, but we never did it.

With the recent form of Trac forward, I'm wondering if that offers an opportunity for playing two rucks like this.

Effectively Gawn start at ruck (as does Track) and Grundy starts forward. However after the clearance, Petracca drifts forward and Grundy comes up the ground.

It could create mismatches: does Grundys defender try to take Trac, leaving our opposition with an extra mid around the contest, but short string the ground?

Yes we'd be one down at the contest, but with ANB and Spargo playing that high half forward role, we'd cover the extra running. And they wouldn't have proper cover for Grundy up the ground unless they run a tall defender with him.

Edited July 15, 20231 yr by deanox

So for 7 mins we played bold, fast ball movement risky football. And what happened? We won. Similar to the game in the Gabba from earlier in the year but this time we beat them.

What happened in between the first and 4th quarters needs further analysis, but to me it was all too familiar losing forward 50 and being mauled from defensive transition fast , precise ball movement. How does this happen? We’ll slow ball movement allows the oppo to setup their ball movers in the d50, win a contest and bang, they slingshot into the forward line and score before we have time to set our zone up.

The better teams have been playing this way for nearly 2 years and we are late to the party. Perhaps we don’t have the cattle to pull it off , but all I know is we ain’t winning anything playing the heavily stoppage based game. It’ is cooked, done, finished. 
 

The forward half territory as many have talked about has also been off for quite some time. Again I don’t know if we have the players that are willing to put in the gruelling efforts required for this to work.

Not suggesting an overhaul, because we are still very competitive and have only lost by small margins, but definitely a tweak is required and the 7 minutes of footy I saw in the 4th quarter and the first 15 mins of the game I was left in awe. 

It's interesting how we've tended to go 1v1 at stoppage over the last few weeks and how this has enabled us to often win CP and stoppage. 

We've deployed Rivers in the 2022 Brayshaw half back role as Gus has taken Clarry's mid minutes, but we're still able to generate the intercept. 

Against Brisbane both sides were sitting an interceptor 10-15m off the back of stoppages in the centre square. Ours was often Salem. Those interceptors cancelled each other out, but from long down the line plays, our KPBs go 1v1 and one of our small/mediums looks to intercept and the others mop up. Our small/mediums are quite aggressive from these situations and the backs are so in ssyncwith each other. Chaplin is a really good defensive coach.

The midfield has totally surpassed my expectations over the last 6 weeks and I'd always thought that without Clarry we'd lose against good stoppage teams. Credit to Yze and mids going through there. 

I'm hoping it'll hold us in really good stead when Clarey returns. And our ability to play Trac forward and the occasionally inject him into the midfield will be a huge weapon. Fingers crossed Clarry gets back.

@deanox AF touches on a bit of why we haven’t tried the two towers on each arc idea - it would work in specific situations but at stoppages it creates an issue around where the outnumber is. If Grundy is at HB and Gawn at the stoppage - where is Grundy’s direct opponent? At the footy? Ahead of Grundy? Creating loose player behind the footy can be powerful against dumb teams - but dangerous against good teams.

And @A F - it has been fantastic to see Sparrow and Gus do what they have done, and really helpful if CO13 gets targeted in the finals.

I am really keen to see what these three natural forwards can do in September if we move it quick - Petracca, Fritsch, and Pickett. And not to belabour the point - I would trust BBB to lead his player out of their way more than Grundy and JVR.

Here's the thing though, @rpfc, Grundy will be in the 22 for finals, so I'm beginning to think it'll be at the expense of JVR.