THE RUN HOME 2020

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,202]

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

Nothing will be more 2020 than missing finals by 0.01%

Can this season and year just be done already?

It will be so 2020 if Fritsch or one of our other serial offenders hits the post after the siren to miss the finals by 0.01%.

[titan_uranus 22,366]

If we had won just one of the two Cairns games, we would currently be sitting 7th (to drop to 8th if Collingwood wins tonight).

The scenario for this weekend would be that a win would guarantee us finals, whilst a loss would then trigger the current scenarios we're looking for this week to make finals with a win.

If we had won both Cairns games we'd be locked into finals right now. We'd be 6th (and would stay there even with a Collingwood win). A win would lock us into 6th (unless we somehow made up 10% on West Coast) and a "home" final vs St Kilda, the Dogs or Collingwood. A loss would see us fall to 7th or 8th at worst.

Read it and weep.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,202]

1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

Saints would be really stiff to miss out. Have played better than Dees all year. 

Certainly in the first half of the season.

However in the second half of the season they've gone 3-4 while we've gone 5-3, and we did beat them a few weeks back.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,202]

4 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If we had won just one of the two Cairns games, we would currently be sitting 7th (to drop to 8th if Collingwood wins tonight).

The scenario for this weekend would be that a win would guarantee us finals, whilst a loss would then trigger the current scenarios we're looking for this week to make finals with a win.

If we had won both Cairns games we'd be locked into finals right now. We'd be 6th (and would stay there even with a Collingwood win). A win would lock us into 6th (unless we somehow made up 10% on West Coast) and a "home" final vs St Kilda, the Dogs or Collingwood. A loss would see us fall to 7th or 8th at worst.

Read it and weep.

I've read it and I've wept.

I can forgive them for the Freo game, but there was absolutely no reason in the world why we should've lost to Sydney. They are such an ordinary side, a side that kicked 2 goals in a game of footy a few weeks back.

[Demonland 64,963]

32 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If we had won just one of the two Cairns games, we would currently be sitting 7th (to drop to 8th if Collingwood wins tonight).

The scenario for this weekend would be that a win would guarantee us finals, whilst a loss would then trigger the current scenarios we're looking for this week to make finals with a win.

If we had won both Cairns games we'd be locked into finals right now. We'd be 6th (and would stay there even with a Collingwood win). A win would lock us into 6th (unless we somehow made up 10% on West Coast) and a "home" final vs St Kilda, the Dogs or Collingwood. A loss would see us fall to 7th or 8th at worst.

Read it and weep.

I've been gently weeping for the past two weeks. I fear I will need more tissues before next Sunday.

[DubDee 20,645]

I have been relying on the Giants to beat saints as our best option but what is the Giants realistic chance of making it?

they can't make up % on us or Saints so they completely rely on the Dogs losing.  

I reckon the saints will have more motivation

[Demonland 64,963]

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I have been relying on the Giants to beat saints as our best option but what is the Giants realistic chance of making it?

they can't make up % on us or Saints so they completely rely on the Dogs losing.  

I reckon the saints will have more motivation

GWS are relying on the same set of circumstances as us with the added need to gain some percentage

Providing we lose GWS don't have to win by much to overtake the Bulldogs.

They have incentive. More than Freo to knock off the Bulldogs.

[Engorged Onion 9,278]

58 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If we had won just one of the two Cairns games, we would currently be sitting 7th (to drop to 8th if Collingwood wins tonight).

The scenario for this weekend would be that a win would guarantee us finals, whilst a loss would then trigger the current scenarios we're looking for this week to make finals with a win.

If we had won both Cairns games we'd be locked into finals right now. We'd be 6th (and would stay there even with a Collingwood win). A win would lock us into 6th (unless we somehow made up 10% on West Coast) and a "home" final vs St Kilda, the Dogs or Collingwood. A loss would see us fall to 7th or 8th at worst.

Read it and weep.

How'd you go when you typed it?

 

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Engorged Onion

[DubDee 20,645]

12 minutes ago, Demonland said:

GWS are relying on the same set of circumstances as us with the added need to gain some percentage

Providing we lose GWS don't have to win by much to overtake the Bulldogs.

They have incentive. More than Freo to knock off the Bulldogs.

but if the dogs win then they need to make up almost 10% of percentage on Giants. 

[Demon17 4,564]

28 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I have been relying on the Giants to beat saints as our best option but what is the Giants realistic chance of making it?

they can't make up % on us or Saints so they completely rely on the Dogs losing.  

I reckon the saints will have more motivation

The upside is that the Giant won't know the otucomes of key results before they play on Friday and would at least give it a crack.

In 2017, the Crows had secured top spot so rolled over to west coast in perth and we lost out on their resulting %.

[Demonland 64,963]

4 minutes ago, DubDee said:

but if the dogs win then they need to make up almost 10% of percentage on Giants. 

Let's say the Dogs win and we lose, the Giants need to win by about 10 goals to overtake St. Kilda and make the finals.

Bare with my thinking here. In my book that helps our case of making finals. It gives the Giants incentive to go out and smash the Saints helping us out with our percentage gap on the Saints.

All we need to do then is [censored] win.

[Demonland 64,963]

5 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

The upside is that the Giant won't know the otucomes of key results before they play on Friday and would at least give it a crack.

In 2017, the Crows had secured top spot so rolled over to west coast in perth and we lost out on their resulting %.

Exactly. This also works in our favour. If we are relying on the Giants winning then we want them to have incentive because we also need them to whittle away as much percentage as they can off the Saints. If they knew our result already and it meant they couldn't make the finals there is no incentive to win let alone win big.

[Demonland 64,963]

Having said that curse us for having to rely on any other teams but also [censored] the Eagles for not beating the Dogs the other week.

[BDA 20,054]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I've read it and I've wept.

I can forgive them for the Freo game, but there was absolutely no reason in the world why we should've lost to Sydney. They are such an ordinary side, a side that kicked 2 goals in a game of footy a few weeks back.

I agree. Freo’s form is holding up well. They’ll give the dogs a real game this weekend. I’m confident of that and won’t be surprised if they win.

Sydney was our worst result of the year. A shocker. The Swans didn’t even have to play all that well.  Extra man in defense playing into the breeze. With the wind ensure kicks inside 50 to the forwards advantage. Kick straight. Simple formula.

[BDA 20,054]

10 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Let's say the Dogs win and we lose, the Giants need to win by about 10 goals to overtake St. Kilda and make the finals.

Bare with my thinking here. In my book that helps our case of making finals. It gives the Giants incentive to go out and smash the Saints helping us out with our percentage gap on the Saints.

All we need to do then is [censored] win.

True but they have to start making inroads early otherwise they might become demoralised. You’d think they will need a 2 goal lead at 1/4 time and at least 4 by halftime. 

[DubDee 20,645]

11 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Let's say the Dogs win and we lose, the Giants need to win by about 10 goals to overtake St. Kilda and make the finals.

Bare with my thinking here. In my book that helps our case of making finals. It gives the Giants incentive to go out and smash the Saints helping us out with our percentage gap on the Saints.

All we need to do then is [censored] win.

Gotcha.  also they are copping it in the media and will have their (angry, fired up) skipper will be back.  they should have a very strong team in

[BDA 20,054]

8 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Having said that curse us for having to rely on any other teams but also [censored] the Eagles for not beating the Dogs the other week.

but they did beat the saints with half a team so i think they redeemed themselves somewhat.

[DubDee 20,645]

so do we know what week the finals will be on?  not assuming we get in, I just wasn't sure if it was confirmed if there was a bye or not?

[Demonland 64,963]

3 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

True but they have to start making inroads early otherwise they might become demoralised. You’d think they will need a 2 goal lead at 1/4 time and at least 4 by halftime. 

We don't actually need them to win by 10 goals but I'm happy for them to keep pegging away all game to get there. I don't think they will drop their heads if they are only 4 or 5 goals up.

They might drop their heads if they are down by a few goals after half time.

Again though we should not be relying on others doing our dirty work. If we fall short because another team doesn't win or win by enough then that is on us.

[Demonland 64,963]

4 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

but they did beat the saints with half a team so i think they redeemed themselves somewhat.

I thank them for their service but [censored] them anyway.

[Demonland 64,963]

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

so do we know what week the finals will be on?  not assuming we get in, I just wasn't sure if it was confirmed if there was a bye or not?

If the Grand Final is on the 24th of October then just by looking at the calendar there will be a week off between the season and the first week of finals.

I guess that also allows another team time to quarantine in WA.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,410]

I think we're aiming too low worrying about whether we'll make finals. What's the highest we can be at the end of the final round if all results go our way from here? 

[DemonWorshipper 296]

4 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think we're aiming too low worrying about whether we'll make finals. What's the highest we can be at the end of the final round if all results go our way from here? 

Not to tempt fate, but if we beat the Bombers by enough and every result went our way from here on in,  We could finish as high as 6th.

That would mean the Dogs are the team to miss of 4 teams on 9 wins. According to Squiggle predictor....

[Demonland 64,963]

9 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think we're aiming too low worrying about whether we'll make finals. What's the highest we can be at the end of the final round if all results go our way from here? 

Highest we can end up is 6th as we can't catch the Eagles on wins even if they lose to North (I couldn't even type that last part without laughing).

[Hogan2014 390]

We are just as likely to lose against Essendon... as far I can remember club has always struggled to make finals as far back as 87 ... 2000 was the exemption & definitely have always dropped games to lower teams to miss a double chance.