Two Spots Left in Final Eight

[M_9 2,082]

Dogs have to be in the eight. 13 games at Docklands where they'll win at least 10. Only have to win 4 of their other 9. They'll beat the Suns in Ballarat and us at the 'G. 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

49 minutes ago, DeezNuts said:

Cats may make it to finals, but as always, they’ll choke under Scott, who will in turn publicly whinge and whine about it, which will in turn make me smile!

And will, in turn, somehow secure him another long term contract, which will make the smile even larger.

[drysdale demon 4,833]

27 minutes ago, M_9 said:

Dogs have to be in the eight. 13 games at Docklands where they'll win at least 10. Only have to win 4 of their other 9. They'll beat the Suns in Ballarat and us at the 'G. 

wouldn't count on it

[Moonshadow 17,676]

1 hour ago, DeezNuts said:

Cats may make it to finals, but as always, they’ll choke under Scott, who will in turn publicly whinge and whine about it, which will in turn make me smile!

Like his brother...

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,367]

2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

I mean, 'relax' is one approach @Rab D Nesbitt, the tried and true method I find is to, 

1) look forward to Friday/sat/Sun pre game each week,

2)feel disillusioned post game,

3) then move into sullenness,

4)then bargain with whoever your jesus is weekly,

5) then jump on Demonland to either find hope and/or spout bile.

6) and then try to avoid eye contact with colleagues who support anyone who is higher than you

7)... RINSE. AND. REPEAT.

You've got some good structures in place there EO, but what's your Plan B ?

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,824]

Who cares about top 8 spots anyway.

If we don't make top 4, then we are just making up the numbers when it comes to a genuine tilt at a flag.

[Dee Dubya 220]

18 hours ago, one_demon said:

Highly likely that Richmond,  GWS, Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and Brisbane will make finals.  That means we will have to battle twelve teams for the last two spots. Ouch!

Only one of these teams will win the battle to finish second behind us on the ladder.

[loges 6,767]

15 hours ago, one_demon said:

I guess what I'm saying is that there's at least six teams considerably better than us that will take six spot in the eight leaving us to fight the rest of the competition for last two spots. 

In 2018 you would have found plenty of pundits who had many ahead of us to finish in the 8, yet we finished 4th ( after finals). Also didn't champion data have us rated one of the best for 2019.

[ManDee 7,147]

I think Champion data do a fair job of counting but they are terrible at analysis.

[rjay 24,924]

15 hours ago, one_demon said:

You can't find six teams that are considerably better than us? Even Champion Data says there's only five teams which have a list worse than ours.

Champion data said we had the best list coming into season 2019...how did that work out?

We have a much better list this year but now they rate us in the bottom 3rd...How does that work?

I wouldn't be basing my argument on Champion date stats...they're good at what they do but this is not it.

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

2 hours ago, ManDee said:

I think Champion data do a fair job of counting but they are terrible at analysis.

Nothing against Champion Data, I just don't think Aussie Rules lends itself to meaningful statistical analysis very well. In a sport like basketball, metrics like rebounds and assists are reliably and highly correlated with success. In AFL, there's simply too many variables (check the stats sheet for our match against Geelong last year). Take any AFL stats analysis with a bucket of salt.

[DurriePirate 97]

Essendon to finish bottom 4, they're going through the same pre-season we had last year large part of best 22 coming off surgery/injury.

Really don't see the Dogs doing much, 10th-12th

Brisbane will be an interesting one, could be 3rd could be 14th.....?

The surprise slider could be Geelong, been up for a long time aging list, fairly injury free last year.

 

Thoughts?

[Marty 419]

20 hours ago, pitmaster said:

That, and they had unrepeatable luck with injuries in 2019 (as in virtually none).

Still, they're well coached and are likely to be there.

Losing Hodge, on field backline coach will be huge. They held firm in some tough games last year. Be interesting to see how their young defenders go this year.

[brendan 3,437]

50 minutes ago, DurriePirate said:

Essendon to finish bottom 4, they're going through the same pre-season we had last year large part of best 22 coming off surgery/injury.

Really don't see the Dogs doing much, 10th-12th

Brisbane will be an interesting one, could be 3rd could be 14th.....?

The surprise slider could be Geelong, been up for a long time aging list, fairly injury free last year.

 

Thoughts?

Geelong could slide Selwood is injured and in doubt for round 1, Kelly gone, if danger fell over then fair chance they could be bottom 4 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,394]

On 2/16/2020 at 6:25 PM, drysdale demon said:

Wouldn't be taking any notice at all of champion data, if all our better players are on the park for the majority of the games we can match it with anyone, like most years injuries will be a major factor for all teams.

Can we? Maybe for a game here or there that we build ourselves up for, or even a run of 4-5 like we did at the end of 2018. Can we do it consistently for a whole season, yet to be seen. This has been one of our biggest problems, thinking it will just happen.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,843]

Would love to have seen the Champion Data stats for Footscray this time in 2016.

[drysdale demon 4,833]

13 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Can we? Maybe for a game here or there that we build ourselves up for, or even a run of 4-5 like we did at the end of 2018. Can we do it consistently for a whole season, yet to be seen. This has been one of our biggest problems, thinking it will just happen.

Who is thinking it is just going to happen?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,394]

54 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

Who is thinking it is just going to happen?

The players.

[drysdale demon 4,833]

1 minute ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

The players.

Doubt it

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,394]

58 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

Doubt it

2017 rd 23 v Collingwood. Yes that was a few years ago now but that typifies Melbourne. 
 

2018 preliminary v WCE. We had momentum, we’d beaten them there already during the season. Goalless at 1/2 time. 

There are numerous games but those two are classic examples.

Too often we are slow starters, we take what we perceive to be easy beats too lightly. We struggle to put sides away. Players not working hard enough thinking their teammates will pick up the slack. Lack of skill is one thing, lack of effort is another. Even when the leadership is poor players can take it upon themselves to standup but very few did. 

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2020 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Pates 9,660]

On 2/16/2020 at 2:41 AM, one_demon said:

Highly likely that Richmond,  GWS, Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and Brisbane will make finals.  That means we will have to battle twelve teams for the last two spots. Ouch!

I wouldn't be putting Brisbane in as a certainty, they had a great year but they sort of shot up from nowhere, no guarentees they'll be able to maintain it.

Pies, GWS, Tigers, and West Coast from me are the likely top 4, cats will sadly retain a place in there as well (sick of them being up there) rest of the top 8 is wide open. And while yes traditionally there isn't much change in the top 8 teams I feel that there could be more changing of places as Essendon were an awful 8th side and the Doggies I don't rate that highly. Hawks could definitely pop back in, Port have talent but seem to have problems with it clicking, we should be considered in the mix to shoot back in there to prove 2019 was the odd year out after years of improvement, and then of course there's Sydney whowere unusually poor.

[rjay 24,924]

2 hours ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Would love to have seen the Champion Data stats for Footscray this time in 2016.

Don't worry about this time in 2016.

In the 2016 finals the Champion Data stats said they couldn't win it.

[Pates 9,660]

23 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Who cares about top 8 spots anyway.

If we don't make top 4, then we are just making up the numbers when it comes to a genuine tilt at a flag.

Gotta walk before you run, much as I'd love for us to be in the GF mix I'll be ok with us being in the 8 if we're showing tangible signs of being in the mix in 2021.

[rjay 24,924]

1 hour ago, Pates said:

Gotta walk before you run, much as I'd love for us to be in the GF mix I'll be ok with us being in the 8 if we're showing tangible signs of being in the mix in 2021.

We walked in 2018, if we're not in the mix this year then we've got problems.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,824]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

We walked in 2018, if we're not in the mix this year then we've got problems.

Took the words out of my mouth.  Going along with the analogy, I would say that no sooner had we walked that we tripped over our own feet and fell flat on our face!

@Pates it's not so much that I'd see just making the bottom half of the 8 as complete failure, but it really wouldn't represent real progress to me either.  Similarly I've got to the point where I am indifferent finishing bottom half of the 8 compared to finishing in position 8 - 12 as neither really indicate to me that we would be getting any closer to actually winning a premiership.

I don't see that finishing top 4 is beyond us either we were a couple of close wins off it in 2018 and Brisbane came from outside the top 8 to finish top 4 last year, so as Peter Jackson put it in his Demonland podcast a while back, these things don't always follow a linear trajectory.

Edited February 17, 2020 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter