Jump to content

  • Podcast: Draft Wrap Up w/Jason Taylor  

Sign in to follow this  
Demonland

Are we plotting a late heist?

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

GWS can get Green without pick 3 and without using pick 6.  They just need to make sure they have enough points after 6 to get him. 

How?  Live pick trading, some fast footwork and trust that another team will honour pre-arranged live pick deals!

It happened last year during 'live pick trade'.  Several clubs (eg Sydney with WCE) traded out their high pick when their academy player was called and used later picks.  As soon as they drafted the acadamy player they live traded back in a high draft pick at around the same level as the one they traded out minutes earlier.  Thereby avoided using a high pick for their player. 

That is powerful stuff and a lot more teams will be using that loophole this year. 

Back to GWS and Green.  Assume he is bid at pick 3.  GWS immediately trade out pick 6 hypothetically to Geelong for 14 and 18 then use their later picks on Green.  As soon as they have Green they can trade 14, 18 or whatever to a team with a pick higher up the order or just keep them if they think their second choice player will fall to 14. 

Note: future picks can also be traded during live trade. 

I reckon there is a lot of jostling to go on pick trading for the next 6 weeks.  Lots of live pick trade scenarios will be negotiated in advance of the draft with other teams.

giphy.gif.6166f482b923036b2a36474445f36d93.gif

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Strategy this year has been excellent. Players early then draft position later.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So if this is true we’ve turned 3, 26 and 50 this year into 6 and 8. Feels like slight overs for mine but happy to see what we do with them before losing my mind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

GWS can get Green without pick 3 and without using pick 6.  They just need to make sure they have enough points after 6 to get him. 

How?  Live pick trading, some fast footwork and trust that another team will honour pre-arranged live pick deals!

It happened last year during 'live pick trade'.  Several clubs (eg Sydney with WCE) traded out their high pick when their academy player was called and used later picks.  As soon as they drafted the acadamy player they live traded back in a high draft pick at around the same level as the one they traded out minutes earlier.  Thereby avoided using a high pick for their player. 

That is powerful stuff and a lot more teams will be using that loophole this year. 

Back to GWS and Green.  Assume he is bid at pick 3.  GWS immediately trade out pick 6 hypothetically to Geelong for 14 and 18 then use their later picks on Green.  As soon as they have Green they can trade 14, 18 or whatever to a team with a pick higher up the order or just keep them if they think their second choice player will fall to 14. 

Note: future picks can also be traded during live trade. 

I reckon there is a lot of jostling to go on pick trading for the next 6 weeks.  Lots of live pick trade scenarios will be negotiated in advance of the draft with other teams.

Edit:  Just realised in this hypotetical GWS would need to use 14 and 18 for Green.  So a poor example but the principle still holds.

IIRC this loophole has been closed. 

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-to-make-changes-to-academy-draft-rules-20190710-p525yi.html

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

I know we’d probably win points-wise by trading pick 3 to pick 6 and their 1st round next year, however what would we conceivably benefit from getting a pick that is like to be in the 14-18 range next year?  I cant see us taking that to the draft considering we’ve already traded out of it. Only way I see it is we’re keen to package that up with the following years 1st round to go for a decent player.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Thank you.  Missed that.  Apologies for the red herring.

Its a significant loophole to close.

Really puts the pressure on GWS (and others) to do the pick swaps before draft night.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Murph1524 said:

So if this is true we’ve turned 3, 26 and 50 this year into 6 and 8. Feels like slight overs for mine but happy to see what we do with them before losing my mind

But we still don't have a lively small forward or a KPF which we desperatly need

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All so confusing yet exciting. Hoping there’s a forward landing at our doorstep later out of this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

I agree we'd like more but tell me how they'll match a bid for Green at say pick 5.  What picks will they use? I think 40 needs to be one of them. 

They can use future picks can't they (rollover to next year?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

They can use future picks can't they (rollover to next year?)

Yes they can but the discussed scenario includes losing their 2020 1st rounder to us so they'd be down to later picks which would wipe out their 2020 draft. If they have academy players then they'd be in trouble paying for them.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think what we'll find is that it'll be more like:
Pick 3 for Pick 6 and GWS 1st rounder next year.  Maybe even another pick thrown in there by GWS.  

This will allow for GWS to get two top 3 pick players for the equivalent of Pick 6, a future 1st and something else(maybe).
This will allow us to get Pick 6 and Pick 8 for Pick 3.  Still maintain a 1st rounder next year.

Anything after 1st round, I think both teams acknowledge is very speculative and a lottery.  

Now what we do with pick 6 and 8 and maybe GWS 1st next year intrigues me.  I would love to turn these 3 picks into a combination of Papley, Brad Crouch, Daniher etc.  Whether that is possible, I don't know.  But I wouldn't put it past Mahoney.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why help GWS out anyway when we are potentially competing against them for what we hope is a top 4 spot next year. I'd say, heres pick 3, we want finlayson, pick 6, then take 6 and 8 to the draft.

Tomlinson, Langdon, Finlayson, Pick 6 and pick 8. Not a bad day out for only losing Frost.

A pick in the 20-30 range next year in a shallow draft is useless.

Edited by SFebes
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pick 3 for pick 6 and a future pick is a horrible trade for us. i would be staggered if we actually made that trade. 

we have GWS bent over a barrel and desperate for that pick. 

we simply have to get a ready made best 22 player who can help us next year or take that pick to the draft.

  • Like 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Why help GWS out anyway when we are potentially competing against them for what we hope is a top 4 spot next year. I'd say, heres pick 3, we want finlayson, pick 6, then take 6 and 8 to the draft.

Tomlinson, Langdon, Finlayson, Pick 6 and pick 8. Not a bad day out for only losing Frost.

A pick in the 20-30 range next year in a shallow draft is useless.

Adding to that could we be chasing Papley with 8, as is being mooted by trade media. Carlton were offering 9 but wanted something back.

We could also seek something back. Carlton were talking Swans 2nd rounder.  Carlton can't do the deal until Bombers agree on Daniher.

8 is better than 9 as part of the Bombers deal.

Papley apparently is not stuck on Carlton, but rather getting back to Victoria.

It could all end with us having Papley, Finlayson/Caldwell or another GWS player and 6 and say a pick in the 20's.

Then again it could be another unforeseen pick swap.

Lastly it could just be us with 3 and 8.

Together with Langdon and Tomlinson that would be an amazing trade period for us.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Adding to that could we be chasing Papley with 8, as is being mooted by trade media. Carlton were offering 9 but wanted something back.

We could also seek something back. Carlton were talking Swans 2nd rounder.  Carlton can't do the deal until Bombers agree on Daniher.

8 is better than 9 as part of the Bombers deal.

Papley apparently is not stuck on Carlton, but rather getting back to Victoria.

It could all end with us having Papley, Finlayson/Caldwell or another GWS player and 6 and say a pick in the 20's.

Then again it could be another unforeseen pick swap.

Lastly it could just be us with 3 and 8.

Together with Langdon and Tomlinson that would be an amazing trade period for us.

 

I'd much rather any of those scenarios mentioned than a devalued pick that we can't use for a year. We have the hand at the moment to bully GWS into giving us something we want. It would be stupidity to relent and give in to what they want.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally i am very happy with Langdon, Tomlinson (less so) 3 and 8 and if he passes due diligence Sam Murray as a DFA.

Hopefully our best "recruits" will be internal ones who were lost to 2018.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Adding to that could we be chasing Papley with 8, as is being mooted by trade media. Carlton were offering 9 but wanted something back.

We could also seek something back. Carlton were talking Swans 2nd rounder.  Carlton can't do the deal until Bombers agree on Daniher.

8 is better than 9 as part of the Bombers deal.

Papley apparently is not stuck on Carlton, but rather getting back to Victoria.

It could all end with us having Papley, Finlayson/Caldwell or another GWS player and 6 and say a pick in the 20's.

Then again it could be another unforeseen pick swap.

Lastly it could just be us with 3 and 8.

Together with Langdon and Tomlinson that would be an amazing trade period for us.

 

One i'd be seriously looking at is Issac Smith. i think we really lack on field leadership, and he addresses a need as well

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We should keep pick 3 and split 8 maybe get Josh Bruce and another 2 guns in the draft

Edited by Rednblueriseing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

One i'd be seriously looking at is Issac Smith. i think we really lack on field leadership, and he addresses a need as well

 

Issac isn't worth a high pick though.  So unless we are in a split via swap of pick / player deal, and soon, that's not even viable as it stands.  If he was part of a deal that's already been in play and discussions well under way?  Possibly.

Edited by Rusty Nails

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Redleg said:

Adding to that could we be chasing Papley with 8, as is being mooted by trade media. Carlton were offering 9 but wanted something back.

We could also seek something back. Carlton were talking Swans 2nd rounder.  Carlton can't do the deal until Bombers agree on Daniher.

8 is better than 9 as part of the Bombers deal.

Papley apparently is not stuck on Carlton, but rather getting back to Victoria.

It could all end with us having Papley, Finlayson/Caldwell or another GWS player and 6 and say a pick in the 20's.

Then again it could be another unforeseen pick swap.

Lastly it could just be us with 3 and 8.

Together with Langdon and Tomlinson that would be an amazing trade period for us.

 

Maybe I'm on my own here but I don't get the hype on Papley, perhaps I just haven't watched many Swans games either this year. It seems we want Weightman so buggered if I know.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any deal with GWS shifting our pick 3 back to 6 needs to come with an agreement from GWS that they won't choose who we want at 6. e.g. If we're dropping back to pick 6 because we think pick 3 is too high for Stephens (just guessing a name), but then GWS use pick 3 on Stephens, we lose out on getting the player we wanted.

We don't hold all the cards here, yes we have the good ones, but certainly not all of them.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Social Media

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    THE YEAR THE SKY FELL by The Oracle

    After a number of years of linear movement up the ladder, the Melbourne Football Club unexpectedly went into serious decline in 2019, slumping from fourth to 17th in a season that coach Simon Goodwin described “a complete wipe-out”. Those around the club who tried to analyse the apocalyptic events that unfolded during the year were hard pressed to find a single reason for the debacle but the most plausible explanation was that the club’s troubles stemmed from a lack of fitness and injuries that

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    BACK IN STYLE by Whispering Jack

    From the moment when the Elton John character in the movie “Rocketman” burst into its opening scene dressed as a flamboyant demon on his way to an addiction rehabilitation session, the game was on. Here was yet another film about a person gifted with a meteoric rise to stardom finding coke, booze and a hedonistic lifestyle that led directly to a destructive crash into the abyss. Ultimately, these stories end in total disaster (“A Star is Born”, “Bohemian Rhapsody”, “Judy”) but this one resulted

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2019

    PART ONE - OVERTURE  I have a disclaimer at the outset. I’m not a fan of the races - be they horses or motors of any kind. Once the final siren sounds on the football season, I find the month or so that follows and corresponds roughly with the Spring Racing Carnival to be the most boring time of the year for sports fans. You turn on the radio and you’re confronted by the monotonous drone of a self-proclaimed racing expert or by the nasally twang of an ex-jockey banging on about the equine p

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 8

    CHANGES 2019 by The Oracle

    PART 1 - IT’S A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THIS TIME This year’s free agency, trade and draft period will see the usual drama and upheaval as the AFL’s 18 clubs seek to better their lists in order to challenge for finals and possibly premiership honours. Long before the final siren sounded on the season just over a week ago, the maneuvering was under way with player agents and clubs discussing possible player movements and in some cases, deals had already been done.  Yesterday, the r

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 2

    HOW FAR SOUTH? by George on the Outer

    It was appropriate that Melbourne was playing its last game of season 2019 in Hobart.  After all, how much further south could the team go? And much as it has done in many of the previous 22 games, the side managed to extract a loss from a winning position by simply giving the ball back to the opposition time and time again. In fact, they gave it back to the opposition to the tune of 53 points from turnovers while, by way of contrast North Melbourne contributed  only 17 points to their oppo

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    COOKED by The Oracle

    I can vividly remember when the Demons ventured onto Blundstone Arena for the first time in early 2016 only to lose to the Kangaroos by 20.11.131 to 21.10.136.    Melbourne was then a team on the up and up: young, enthusiastic and bold. It gave up a huge quarter time deficit after kicking against a strong wind but made that up by half time and fell dramatically short after an exciting high scoring affair.  The team lost no fans that day - they were willing to take the game on and attac

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    HELP by KC rom Casey

    The Casey Demons finished off their home and away season against Frankston at Skybus Stadium on Sunday with a narrow, unconvincing 6-point victory that left the door slightly open for a top eight berth when the VFL finals begin in a fortnight’s time. While sunny skies prevailed over Frankston in the morning, the skies became overcast by noon and heavy waves pounded the bay nearby as the rains came in to greet the players as the game started. And conditions stayed dark and dreary for the rem

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THANKS BUT NO THANKS by George on the Outer

    Thanks, but no thanks! In a round where the club was supposed to thank their fans for the support during the year, the Melbourne Football Club chose to do otherwise with a 53 point loss to a team that sat 15th on the ladder.  Don’t give us cheap jumpers that can’t be sold in the Demon shop.  Don’t give us vouchers to shop there, give us something on the field, which is why we come to the football in the first place. It was a disgraceful performance, which started with a disgracefu

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    SLEEP OUT AT THE MCG by The Oracle

    Around about 12 months ago Melbourne and Sydney fought out an epic battle between two top eight teams fighting for the best possible ladder position in the lead up to the finals. The Swans triumphed by 9 points at the MCG after the Demons came back from five goals down at three quarter time. But for its poor kicking for goal, Melbourne might well have won the game and finished in the top four. Who knows what might then have happened for the club in September? As a consequence, the person re

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    A LITTLE RAY OF SUNSHINE by KC from Casey

    Two clubs that have been hard hit by injury recently took part in a dour battle under dark clouds and, with intermittent showers falling, it wasn’t a pretty game at Victoria Park on Sunday. Despite all that, the Casey Demons added a little ray of sunshine to their day to get the job done over a "traditional" rival with a 15 point victory over Collingwood VFL that breathed life back into their season. There were a few highlights at the ground that in past days has seen many titanic batt

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THE RETRO ROUND by George on the Outer

    We have seen it all before… Yes, a wonderful idea to showcase what used to be in football.  Big crowds, umpires who knew how to apply the rules and not opinions, high marks, skilful players. But for the Melbourne supporters their retro is what it has been like for the past 10 years. Losing games, end on end, year after year.  Opportunities squandered in front of goal. VFL standard players running around at the MCG. Just more of the same, and the game against Collingwood was no ex

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE PEOPLE SPEAK by The Demonland Crew

    Thanks to Demonlanders for their input into this week’s preview. Ralphius Maximus is short and bittersweet: We'll crack in at the bounce to create a contest, win our share of the ball, butcher the forward movement and get scored on easily from the intercepts. Not that hard to predict. Big Demon says: Unfortunately Collingwood will win because they have a lot more to play for. We will be good in parts but really the season is well over so we will have to put up with those bell

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

×
×
  • Create New...