The statistical tale of 2019

[fr_ap 2,529]

I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have gone wrong this year. 

In no particular order, this is what he found:

• There's been a lot of discussion about injuries, and lately, Richmond and Collingwood fans complaining they have it the worst of all. The data says we have averaged 6.5 'best 22' players missing over the first 19 rounds of the season; in total we have missed 117 'best 22' games. 
• Richmond have averaged 5.11 (92 total), while Collingwood have averaged 3.94 (71 total). This highlights Richmond's depth as stronger than both Melbourne or Collingwood  - they've got guys like Caddy running around in the VFL while we have...JKH/Dunkley/Lockhart and Coll have Daicos/Brown etc. 
• Looking at the round by round breakdown of this - you can see that this number (# of best 22 injured) correlates strongly with form. Richmond's injuries have improved markedly since the bye and their form has peaked. Collingwood's have been unlucky with injury since the bye and they have been ordinary. Of course we've been ordinary for the whole year... 
• When you break this down by position it confirms what we know - our midfield has stayed pretty much full strength all year, but the forward and backline have had either 3.77 best 22 players missing on average (fwd line) or 2.6 best 22 players missing on average (backline). The impact on both ends of the grounds shouldn't be underestimated and suits the narrative of our year - unable to score, unable to defend inside 50s, but still ok at generating our own (pre-game plan change in the last couple of weeks). Goodwin keeps trotting out that we've had no continuity at either end of the ground - and he's right. 
• I've attached these two breakdowns to this post. 
• Don't pay much attention to sirswampthing's post highlighting that Collingwood have the most 'games played' on the injuries list. Break that out and 750 of those games are from players outside the best 22 / retiring (e.g Wells, Beams, Goldsack etc.). Misleading and clickbait for the biggest supporter base. 
• Out of players who have played at least 10 games, Frost and OMac are the two who have cost us the most scores as a % of their turnovers. Frost is ranked 12th in the league (1st = a really bad thing), conceding a score 34% of the time he turns it over, resulting in 17 shots at goal (9 goals 8 ) directly from his turnovers. Omac is ranked 15th in the league, conceding a score 33% of the time. 
• Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league) have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. We all love his skills; but his turnovers hurt us. We're better with him camped inside 50 and our increased efficiency over the last 3 weeks is in no small part due to having a natural forward like him back in the 50. 
• In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there). 
• Conversely, the players who have generated the most scores from intercepts, while keeping their turnovers to a minimum, and to have played at least 10 games, are: Jones, Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, Viney (Surprising!), Lockhart, Hunt, Tmac, Harmes. 
• James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. 
• Petracca is mostly accurate everywhere: he is 10.8 from set shots, 5.1 on the run, 4.3 from snaps, 1.0 from mark play on, 1.0 off the ground. 5.0 from <15m, 4.4 from 15-30m, 2.2 from 31-40m, 7.4 from 41-50m, 3.2 from 50m+. He's above AFL average in all these categories, with exception of 15-30m and 31-40m kicking, which is bang on AFL average. 
• Harmes is not accurate from anywhere. He has 3.3 from <15m, an awful 2.6 from 31-40m and 4.8 from 41-50m. 
• Against Richmond, 14 players had less than one tackle. This was widely discussed. However, it wasn't from lack of effort. We had more tackle attempts than Richmond, but went at 25% efficiency. Poor technique, not strong enough, lazy, mentally checked out, who knows. 
• The loss of Hogan on Tom Mac and Wiedeman should not be understated. Last year, Weideman played 3 good games - vs. West Coast in Rd 22, then Geelong in the EF and Hawks in the SF. His opponents in those games based on most % of gametime were: Brad Sheppard (HBFer, not a KPD), Lachie Henderson and David Mirra. This year, Weideman has had 3 games of 'good' output, 2 pass marks and 6 poor matches. The 3 good games he played on: Jacob Weitering, Aaron Francis, Jack Watts. Decent names but not A grade defenders by any means. The pass mark games, he played on Darcy Moore and Tom Mccartin. The poor games, he played on Harris Andrews, Griffin Logue/Joel Hamling, Alex Keath, David Astbury, Nathan Brown/Josh Battle, Mark Blicavs. Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. 
• Now lets look at who Tom Mac towelled up last year on his way to 50 goals: Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley. This is a who's who of average defenders/mismatches save for Barrass and Frawley (dont ask about Jenkins; perhaps Tom went back that day? I can't remember). 
• This year Tom Mac has had to play on Tom Jonas, Mark Blicavs, Phil Davis, Daniel Talia and so on. The only defender he towelled up was Liam Jones. His best games were against Jones, Oscar Allen, Aliir Aliir. 
• This info is available to the coaching staff. If they haven't looked at this and realised that our two KPF hopes are not capable of playing on top line defenders and that we need a key fwd to take the heat off these guys, then you have to wonder what they are doing. 
• Oscar Mcdonald has only had one 'good' performance this year - against Nick Blakey. He has been beaten by: Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Tom Papley (mismatch), Paddy Ryder and Josh Corbett. 
• Frost has beaten: Tom Lynch (Rich, early on), Levi Casboult, Josh Bruce, Jarryd Roughead, and Jack Lukosius. Has been beaten by: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Darling, Jack Riewoldt, Eric Hipwood. 
• Angus Brayshaw played 90% of his time on ground last year in the midfield. This year, that is down to 60%. He has spent 24% of his time on the wing, 16% in the forward line. 
• Of our top 5 centre bounce attendees, Brayshaw was also our most effective centre square player we had last year across a number of measures: Clearance differential (19.4, ahead of next best Harmes 11.2), Inside 50 differential (18.8, ahead of next best Oliver/Viney both 12.5) and scoring differential (8.1, ahead of next best 6.7 Viney). Brayshaw was involved in 345 centre square clearances last year. This year he is down to 215.  
• Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw and the rest of the regular crew. Of course, Melkham's data is perhaps limited by sample size. Melksham ranks 17th in our side for actual centre bounce attendances, whilst Petracca ranks 10th. The two are our most effective centre bounce players. Brayshaw is one of our best; but he is being played out of position.

 

There are of course weaknesses in all of these statistics - they never tell the full story, there are subjective categorisations applied to 'good/pass mark/bad' and 'best 22' - but I found some of the above quite interesting. 

For me, what stands out is that the FD thought Tom Mac & Weid were ready to replace Hogan's output, but the warning signs were there if they were to look at the data. We miss his ability to draw the best defender, his presence all around the ground, and his general offensive skillset. No use crying about it now; but given this data is available to the club I find it disappointing they sat on their hands and thought the forward line was sorted even with his departure. 

Discuss!

 

[chookrat 4,268]

41 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have gone wrong this year. 

In no particular order, this is what he found:

• There's been a lot of discussion about injuries, and lately, Richmond and Collingwood fans complaining they have it the worst of all. The data says we have averaged 6.5 'best 22' players missing over the first 19 rounds of the season; in total we have missed 117 'best 22' games. 
• Richmond have averaged 5.11 (92 total), while Collingwood have averaged 3.94 (71 total). This highlights Richmond's depth as stronger than both Melbourne or Collingwood  - they've got guys like Caddy running around in the VFL while we have...JKH/Dunkley/Lockhart and Coll have Daicos/Brown etc. 
• Looking at the round by round breakdown of this - you can see that this number (# of best 22 injured) correlates strongly with form. Richmond's injuries have improved markedly since the bye and their form has peaked. Collingwood's have been unlucky with injury since the bye and they have been ordinary. Of course we've been ordinary for the whole year... 
• When you break this down by position it confirms what we know - our midfield has stayed pretty much full strength all year, but the forward and backline have had either 3.77 best 22 players missing on average (fwd line) or 2.6 best 22 players missing on average (backline). The impact on both ends of the grounds shouldn't be underestimated and suits the narrative of our year - unable to score, unable to defend inside 50s, but still ok at generating our own (pre-game plan change in the last couple of weeks). Goodwin keeps trotting out that we've had no continuity at either end of the ground - and he's right. 
• I've attached these two breakdowns to this post. 
• Don't pay much attention to sirswampthing's post highlighting that Collingwood have the most 'games played' on the injuries list. Break that out and 750 of those games are from players outside the best 22 / retiring (e.g Wells, Beams, Goldsack etc.). Misleading and clickbait for the biggest supporter base. 
• Out of players who have played at least 10 games, Frost and OMac are the two who have cost us the most scores as a % of their turnovers. Frost is ranked 12th in the league (1st = a really bad thing), conceding a score 34% of the time he turns it over, resulting in 17 shots at goal (9 goals 8 ) directly from his turnovers. Omac is ranked 15th in the league, conceding a score 33% of the time. 
• Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league) have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. We all love his skills; but his turnovers hurt us. We're better with him camped inside 50 and our increased efficiency over the last 3 weeks is in no small part due to having a natural forward like him back in the 50. 
• In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there). 
• Conversely, the players who have generated the most scores from intercepts, while keeping their turnovers to a minimum, and to have played at least 10 games, are: Jones, Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, Viney (Surprising!), Lockhart, Hunt, Tmac, Harmes. 
• James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. 
• Petracca is mostly accurate everywhere: he is 10.8 from set shots, 5.1 on the run, 4.3 from snaps, 1.0 from mark play on, 1.0 off the ground. 5.0 from <15m, 4.4 from 15-30m, 2.2 from 31-40m, 7.4 from 41-50m, 3.2 from 50m+. He's above AFL average in all these categories, with exception of 15-30m and 31-40m kicking, which is bang on AFL average. 
• Harmes is not accurate from anywhere. He has 3.3 from <15m, an awful 2.6 from 31-40m and 4.8 from 41-50m. 
• Against Richmond, 14 players had less than one tackle. This was widely discussed. However, it wasn't from lack of effort. We had more tackle attempts than Richmond, but went at 25% efficiency. Poor technique, not strong enough, lazy, mentally checked out, who knows. 
• The loss of Hogan on Tom Mac and Wiedeman should not be understated. Last year, Weideman played 3 good games - vs. West Coast in Rd 22, then Geelong in the EF and Hawks in the SF. His opponents in those games based on most % of gametime were: Brad Sheppard (HBFer, not a KPD), Lachie Henderson and David Mirra. This year, Weideman has had 3 games of 'good' output, 2 pass marks and 6 poor matches. The 3 good games he played on: Jacob Weitering, Aaron Francis, Jack Watts. Decent names but not A grade defenders by any means. The pass mark games, he played on Darcy Moore and Tom Mccartin. The poor games, he played on Harris Andrews, Griffin Logue/Joel Hamling, Alex Keath, David Astbury, Nathan Brown/Josh Battle, Mark Blicavs. Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. 
• Now lets look at who Tom Mac towelled up last year on his way to 50 goals: Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley. This is a who's who of average defenders/mismatches save for Barrass and Frawley (dont ask about Jenkins; perhaps Tom went back that day? I can't remember). 
• This year Tom Mac has had to play on Tom Jonas, Mark Blicavs, Phil Davis, Daniel Talia and so on. The only defender he towelled up was Liam Jones. His best games were against Jones, Oscar Allen, Aliir Aliir. 
• This info is available to the coaching staff. If they haven't looked at this and realised that our two KPF hopes are not capable of playing on top line defenders and that we need a key fwd to take the heat off these guys, then you have to wonder what they are doing. 
• Oscar Mcdonald has only had one 'good' performance this year - against Nick Blakey. He has been beaten by: Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Tom Papley (mismatch), Paddy Ryder and Josh Corbett. 
• Frost has beaten: Tom Lynch (Rich, early on), Levi Casboult, Josh Bruce, Jarryd Roughead, and Jack Lukosius. Has been beaten by: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Darling, Jack Riewoldt, Eric Hipwood. 
• Angus Brayshaw played 90% of his time on ground last year in the midfield. This year, that is down to 60%. He has spent 24% of his time on the wing, 16% in the forward line. 
• Of our top 5 centre bounce attendees, Brayshaw was also our most effective centre square player we had last year across a number of measures: Clearance differential (19.4, ahead of next best Harmes 11.2), Inside 50 differential (18.8, ahead of next best Oliver/Viney both 12.5) and scoring differential (8.1, ahead of next best 6.7 Viney). Brayshaw was involved in 345 centre square clearances last year. This year he is down to 215.  
• Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw and the rest of the regular crew. Of course, Melkham's data is perhaps limited by sample size. Melksham ranks 17th in our side for actual centre bounce attendances, whilst Petracca ranks 10th. The two are our most effective centre bounce players. Brayshaw is one of our best; but he is being played out of position.

 

There are of course weaknesses in all of these statistics - they never tell the full story, there are subjective categorisations applied to 'good/pass mark/bad' and 'best 22' - but I found some of the above quite interesting. 

For me, what stands out is that the FD thought Tom Mac & Weid were ready to replace Hogan's output, but the warning signs were there if they were to look at the data. We miss his ability to draw the best defender, his presence all around the ground, and his general offensive skillset. No use crying about it now; but given this data is available to the club I find it disappointing they sat on their hands and thought the forward line was sorted even with his departure. 

Discuss!

 

Thanks, this is a really good analysis. I'm not convinced re hypothesis that Tom MacDonald and Weid are not up tp it as our two key forwards as they performed well against WCE, GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn late last year all of which have excellent key defenders. 

I think Tom's interrupted preseason and toe issue has had a huge bearing on his form and next year should be a 2 goal per game key forward. Sam similar. 

Playing guys like Fritch and Melky as the link kick into our fwd 50 will make a huge difference next year. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Thanks a heap Frap.  Finally some more meaningful stats that highlight some key insights into areas of strengths and unfortunately so many weaknesses.

Some of the main things that stand out for me...

> The Tiges werent that far away from us at the peak of their injuries.  However, the deeper quality of their list stood them in better stead.  Nothing new but nice to see it confirmed.

> James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. 

....No wonder we can't connect with all the hard and decent (AFL competitive) extraction work in the middle.  There's virtually no one outside of Harmes to link up with on a regular basis.  Harmes sometimes goes under the radar but here's the proof of what he brings.  A rare commodity at D'land.

>  Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw

.... playing Brayshaw out of position for such large chunks is robbing Peter.  Tracc needs to come into a major role here also to take up the gap that's occured since Jones was moved to  a more defensive role.  I believe Goody recognised this late and we saw him playing significantly  more time here after the bye.

This pretty much confirms my earlier thoughts that anyone believing we will just miraculously turn around our forward situation with the same KFs next year is in for a rude shock.  T-Mac is a 2nd stringer and Weid depth only right now.

> Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league)have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. 

... anyone who still thinks we shouldn't have swapped anyone else capable of providing a contest in order to get Fritschkreig back to his usual forward role after it was obviously clear it wasn't working (from about Rnd 5 vs the Saints) may wish to to visit their local brain surgeon.

Edited August 6, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Kent 2,914]

Rusty thanks for the stats and analysis a great read.

One can only hope our coaches are doing a similar analysis and putting in place specific training and personal attention to address the major issues

[Viscount Cardwell 185]

Fantastic analysis, many thanks

[Little Goffy 14,639]

Good read, and damn I wish I could spent a few days tucked in a cave with nothing but the premium data to distract me.

Just want to note that there's a bit of a question mark on saying that Richmond's depth is stronger than ours, based on how well they covered the players missing from their best 22 . Depth players and players on the fringe have been the really disproportionate part of our injury list (as opposed to our best 22 which has experienced merely the most serious depletion in the league).

Even right now, Richmond are missing 2 maybe 3 from what might be considered their best 22 for statistical markers (Rance, Cotchin, Higgins), but then only three other players.

In contrast, Melbourne are missing May, McDonald, and Weideman from what might be the 22 as assessed at the start of this season, based on 2019. But in addition to that we are missing Smith, Vandernberg, Garlett, Kolodjashnij, Hannan, Spargo and four others.

And that 3+10 is as short as our injury list has been all season. Picking a random ealier round, round 10, Richmond were pretty much at their peak of injures with ten while we were limping around with seventeen. Again, the actual number of 'best 22' missing was much closer.

It would be fair to say our depth hasn't been 'tested' so much as mutiliated this season. Spinal fluid biopsy might be accurate.

[fr_ap 2,529]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

Good read, and damn I wish I could spent a few days tucked in a cave with nothing but the premium data to distract me.

Just want to note that there's a bit of a question mark on saying that Richmond's depth is stronger than ours, based on how well they covered the players missing from their best 22 . Depth players and players on the fringe have been the really disproportionate part of our injury list (as opposed to our best 22 which has experienced merely the most serious depletion in the league).

Even right now, Richmond are missing 2 maybe 3 from what might be considered their best 22 for statistical markers (Rance, Cotchin, Higgins), but then only three other players.

In contrast, Melbourne are missing May, McDonald, and Weideman from what might be the 22 as assessed at the start of this season, based on 2019. But in addition to that we are missing Smith, Vandernberg, Garlett, Kolodjashnij, Hannan, Spargo and four others.

And that 3+10 is as short as our injury list has been all season. Picking a random ealier round, round 10, Richmond were pretty much at their peak of injures with ten while we were limping around with seventeen. Again, the actual number of 'best 22' missing was much closer.

It would be fair to say our depth hasn't been 'tested' so much as mutiliated this season. Spinal fluid biopsy might be accurate.

Absolutely, the length and breadth of our injury list has meant we've not only lost many best 22 members, but the depth that would have replaced them as well. 

Particularly on the positional breakdown though - you would actually prefer to be missing maybe 2 mids, one back and one forward (If you only have 4 out). The fact we have had either 4 or 3 of our front/back 6 unavailable compounds the absences...by definition your depth chart for each position can only be a couple deep. Replacing almost your entire forward or backline isn't really possible for any team in the comp. That's what we've had to deal with this year. 

 

Re. Weid/Tom Mac - that data is fairly damning I think. Yes they've both had good days against good opposition but it is few and far between. Tom Mac's level is against the 2nd best defender. Weid is still young so there is scope for him to get to that level or at a stretch, the best defender. At the moment though the data says he generally only has good games on the 3rd stringers.

Edited August 6, 2019 by fr_ap

[The Lobster Effect 893]

We don't have much depth but got away with it last year; this year not so much. 

The good clubs seem to have a conveyor belt of good players able to come in. 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

Interesting stuff, thanks @fr_ap.

The TMac/Weideman stuff is interesting but I'm not sure it's as simple as analysing the specific defenders each one has played on, given the quality of ball coming at them.

The handball receives stat is a pretty good indicator of one of our big problems.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,708]

Fantastic read Frap, something that stood out was how much we have missed Jake the snake at center clearances and in the forward 50 especially. Our F50 structure has been so dysfunctional it's not funny, Tmac has been playing injured without a doubt.

Fritta like i and many have stated ain't a backman, he's a natural forward.

I am convinced the FD have played Oscar knowing he is a liability to sure up pick 2. The effort has been there, so no one can question the validity of the team.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

8 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

Fantastic read Frap, something that stood out was how much we have missed Jake the snake at center clearances and in the forward 50 especially. Our F50 structure has been so dysfunctional it's not funny, Tmac has been playing injured without a doubt.

Fritta like i and many have stated ain't a backman, he's a natural forward.

I am convinced the FD have played Oscar knowing he is a liability to sure up pick 2. The effort has been there, so no one can question the validity of the team.

In an interview on SEN about Rnd 7 or so W4, Tommy was asked this & what was up re his ordinary form.  He said he was cherry ripe.  No fitness issues.  Just a form issue.

He then asked for any advice from the two interviewers (semi tongue in cheek), one of them was Rooey so he was probably genuinly interested in the response here.

Don't shoot i'm just the baton.

[old55 23,687]

16 hours ago, fr_ap said:

Re. Weid/Tom Mac - that data is fairly damning I think. Yes they've both had good days against good opposition but it is few and far between. Tom Mac's level is against the 2nd best defender. Weid is still young so there is scope for him to get to that level or at a stretch, the best defender. At the moment though the data says he generally only has good games on the 3rd stringers.

That analysis looks compelling on the surface but I'm not sure it's as rigorous as it might be.  I looked back at the 4 key games at the end of last year when Tom and Sam played key forward roles and I've highlighted the opponents not identified above:

R22 vs West Coast: Opposition key defenders playing: Barrass, McGovern, Sheppard

• Barrass and Sheppard are the nominated opponents above but this seems to ignore the impact of the league's best aerial defender McGovern who played 85% gametime

R23 vs GWS: Opposition key defenders playing: Davis, Keefe, Haynes

• TMac kicked 3 apparently on Lachlan Keefe. Who was Phil Davis (who later on in the analysis is rightly rated as a premier defender) playing on for 91% gametime then?  Sam had 17 disposals 6 marks (including 2 contested) and kicked a goal.

EF vs Geelong: Opposition key defenders playing: Blicavs, Henderson, Taylor

• Apparently Henderson was on Sam.  Who were Blicavs (also rated later on as a premier defender) and Taylor on?  They don't seem to rate a mention.  Tom took 7 marks and kicked 3 goals.

SF vs Hawthorn: Opposition key defenders playing: Frawley, Sicily, Mirra?

• Tom took 10 marks and kicked 4 apparently on Frawley.  Apparently Mirra at 186cm was on Weid, what was Sicily up to?

There's just too many questions there for me to take that analysis as definitive.

Edited August 7, 2019 by Fifty-5

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

19 hours ago, fr_ap said:

In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there

Great post, Lots of interesting stats. Is there any chance you can get some of these turnover->score stats with other defenders across the league?

It seems pretty logical that when a defender who usually has the ball in the back half would have high scores per turnover compared to mids and forwards. Just would be interested if our defenders are outliers compared to everyone else's defenders

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

12 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

Fantastic read Frap, something that stood out was how much we have missed Jake the snake at center clearances and in the forward 50 especially. Our F50 structure has been so dysfunctional it's not funny, Tmac has been playing injured without a doubt.

Fritta like i and many have stated ain't a backman, he's a natural forward.

I am convinced the FD have played Oscar knowing he is a liability to sure up pick 2. The effort has been there, so no one can question the validity of the team.

I expect the footy department knows that, too. Playing him as a defender when injuries hit our backline shows that our coach considers getting the defence right to be more important than having a decent attack. 

[Coq au vin 755]

The other statistic is that we had a much more difficult draw this year.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

11 minutes ago, President Dee Trump said:

The other statistic is that we had a much more difficult draw this year.

The double up games make and break seasons. 10 games come against double up teams. From those games we're 1-7 with Coll and Syd to come. Last year we were 7-3 in double ups and lost those 3 by a combined 7 points. (Geel x2 and StK). Oh how far we've fallen

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by ArtificialWisdom

[praha 11,240]

Ultimately, Hogans departure has identified how badly we're missing key small forwards. ANB has been hopeless, Hannan has been injured, Garlett is done, and Spargo is 12 years old. It's fine if Mcdonald and Weid are attracting the 1 and 2 defenders. Combine our lacking ground work inside 50 with almost no outside run (excluding Harmes), and you have a receipe for failure. This is why we badly need Langdon and Hill. A healthy Hannan, AVB, Melksham, Weid, TMac up forward, Hill Langdon and Harmes on the outside, Petracca doing his magic, Viney Brayshaw and Oliver winning on the inside.

We have the pieces but I question our capabilities to quickly address these issues because we need to make harsh list changes this off season. Player management has been a failure this year and last preseason, the next big test for Goodwin and go is to effectively manage any niggles, identify these gaps, and fill them. 

On the plus side if we do see improvement next year I think it's going to be a sharp incline. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I expect the footy department knows that, too. Playing him as a defender when injuries hit our backline shows that our coach considers getting the defence right to be more important than having a decent attack. 

The problem was LD that aside from the times he was pushing alot further up the ground ie; beyond the centre square (later rounds) Fritshkreig was completely innefective down back, directly leaking about 15 goals if these numbers are on.  And that was up to about Rnd 15 or so before being moved forward.  Might have hit some sort of record had Goody kept playing him there.

I get the idea of trialing him there for a few games but to persist for nearly 4 months when it was obvious it wasn't clicking from about Rnd 5ish...hmm.

[Grimes Times 1,278]

22 hours ago, fr_ap said:

Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. 

You dont need stats to tell you a young still developing key forward will struggled against seasoned good experienced key defenders.

[fr_ap 2,529]

13 minutes ago, Grimes Times said:

You dont need stats to tell you a young still developing key forward will struggled against seasoned good experienced key defenders.

By not recruiting to replace at least some of Hogan's output, apparently the FD think he doesn't struggle. 

All I think this analysis helps to show is that he isn't at the level (yet). To be honest I don't think Tmac is either as a #1 key fwd. 

The analysis of who has played on who of course has flaws...but you needn't look further than the results of these two guys this year absent Jesse. The final couple of rounds and Finals last year were relative outliers (notwithstanding Weid only played on Henderson and Mirra) - we had a head of steam and the entire team lifted. 

The proof is there - and if the FD thinks we can go into next year after addressing outside run and not much else, barring huge development in Weideman's game we won't improve the way they might think we will. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by fr_ap

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

59 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

The problem was LD that aside from the times he was pushing alot further up the ground ie; beyond the centre square (later rounds) Fritshkreig was completely innefective down back, directly leaking about 15 goals if these numbers are on.  And that was up to about Rnd 15 or so before being moved forward.  Might have hit some sort of record had Goody kept playing him there.

I get the idea of trialing him there for a few games but to persist for nearly 4 months when it was obvious it wasn't clicking from about Rnd 5ish...hmm.

Keep in mind the data is* showing totals for the year, rather than averages per game, so a player who has played more games (eg Fritsch) will have bigger numbers (good and bad).  Nevertheless, I agree that Fritsch provides better value forward than back.

 

*For the pedants out there...yes, I know that 'data' is the plural of 'datum' so technically I should have written 'are' instead of 'is'. But (says he incorrectly starting a sentence with a conjunction) that just reads so badly. 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,290]

7 hours ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

The double up games make and break seasons. 10 games come against double up teams. From those games we're 1-7 with Coll and Syd to come. Last year we were 7-3 in double ups and lost those 3 by a combined 7 points. (Geel x2 and StK). Oh how far we've fallen

 

The 3 double ups we've played have been the last 3 weeks. Season was shot well before that, I don't think the draw has anything to do with it.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,878]

Perhaps playing Fritta down back so long has given him extra incentive to play well as a forward  ("kick goals our you go down back again").

Will be interesting to see if he can keep up this rich vein of form he is in at the moment and I wonder if playing him down back has somehow improved him as a player other than him just being another year into the AFL system.

[titan_uranus 25,043]

10 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

That analysis looks compelling on the surface but I'm not sure it's as rigorous as it might be.  I looked back at the 4 key games at the end of last year when Tom and Sam played key forward roles and I've highlighted the opponents not identified above:

R22 vs West Coast: Opposition key defenders playing: Barrass, McGovern, Sheppard

• Barrass and Sheppard are the nominated opponents above but this seems to ignore the impact of the league's best aerial defender McGovern who played 85% gametime

R23 vs GWS: Opposition key defenders playing: Davis, Keefe, Haynes

• TMac kicked 3 apparently on Lachlan Keefe. Who was Phil Davis (who later on in the analysis is rightly rated as a premier defender) playing on for 91% gametime then?  Sam had 17 disposals 6 marks (including 2 contested) and kicked a goal.

EF vs Geelong: Opposition key defenders playing: Blicavs, Henderson, Taylor

• Apparently Henderson was on Sam.  Who were Blicavs (also rated later on as a premier defender) and Taylor on?  They don't seem to rate a mention.  Tom took 7 marks and kicked 3 goals.

SF vs Hawthorn: Opposition key defenders playing: Frawley, Sicily, Mirra?

• Tom took 10 marks and kicked 4 apparently on Frawley.  Apparently Mirra at 186cm was on Weid, what was Sicily up to?

There's just too many questions there for me to take that analysis as definitive.

Good research.

TMac/Weid's drop in form is certainly a part of our problem but it's not as simple as the OP's analysis suggests.

9 hours ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

The double up games make and break seasons. 10 games come against double up teams. From those games we're 1-7 with Coll and Syd to come. Last year we were 7-3 in double ups and lost those 3 by a combined 7 points. (Geel x2 and StK). Oh how far we've fallen

We didn't play a single repeat game until West Coast a few weeks ago. They're in a five week stretch from Round 18-22.

The season was shot by Round 18.

The double up games have pretty much played no role, at all, in our season.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

11 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The 3 double ups we've played have been the last 3 weeks. Season was shot well before that, I don't think the draw has anything to do with it.

 

9 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

We didn't play a single repeat game until West Coast a few weeks ago. They're in a five week stretch from Round 18-22.

The season was shot by Round 18.

The double up games have pretty much played no role, at all, in our season

Sorry I should have bean clear, I don't think that the harder fixture had anything to do with or failures this year. We we're just about shot by round 8. Well before it mattered who we were playing

What I was getting at is that 12 games of any given season is made up of 12 teams. The remaining 10 games are made up of only 5 teams. In a year where finals are actually a chance for us (hopefully 2020) the fixture is a big deal. As it is for everyone else, Brisbane has it this year: North, Suns, Hawks, Dogs and Port. At best 1 finalist in that list, still a chance of no finalists. 8-1 with only a game against the Suns to come. It's made their season.