Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

3 hours ago, ManDee said:

Ok if you insist. YOU HAVE NO IDEA what the final deal will be. At this stage it is speculation. But you might be right. What I have been trying to say is don't jump off a cliff it could end well. I am sorry if I  have upset you, I thought I was being a voice of reason.

Fair enough.

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

13 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

why would he feel or be made to feel uncomfortable.

Players come and go at all clubs every year.

It's the way

Yep. The Wiz left to be with family

He still loves the Demons. I have no doubt Jesse loves the MFC. But he is not a Melbourne boy. This City is big and cold during Footy Season. 

[Redleg 40,843]

43 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I wonder if we'll hear anything through the best and fairest tomorrow night.  If Hogan has decided to leave, will he still go?  I get the feeling the players would be more than happy to have him there, especially the way Jones spoke about it, but he might feel uncomfortable going along to the night.

Either way, you would think we would hear something more concrete about it in the next 48 hours.  Perhaps he announces a new 5 year deal with Melbourne tomorrow night at the B&F??

He would be a certainty to go to the B and F, as he is still a Dees player and who has not said he is leaving.

[Macca 16,923]

5 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Agreed. Good logic. Yes, at any one pick it doesnt look to great but if you look at who you can pick then I trust Jason Taylor to get it right.

If one was to look at a block of picks over a long period of time in that 10-20 range you'll find that a large percentage of those picks become busts.  And most if not all of the top 20 picks are standout juniors.

The later picks is where Taylor can also show his real worth as a recruiter (over time)  Or,  he may have a rare gift.  But with recruiting,  that rare gift is often a bit of a ruse ... it comes and goes.  (Wells at Geelong & Brisbane's Scott Clayton)

With Taylor,  it's so far, so good!  We're riding a good horse but we haven't rounded the home turn yet. The list is by no means complete.  We need 20 top players ... not 22 best 22 players.

[Moonshadow 17,675]

22 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Yep. The Wiz left to be with family

He still loves the Demons. I have no doubt Jesse loves the MFC. But he is not a Melbourne boy. This City is big and cold during Footy Season. 

I seriously doubt a couple of degrees difference will be a factor in his decision. Or are you referring to cold as in lonely?

IMO if he leaves it will be because of coin and to be near people he grew up with. I actually believe football is currently not as important to him as it might be to other star players, which is understandable given what he's been through recently. Perhaps he has some delusional thought Ross Lyon and Freo are ready for finals. 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2018 by Moonshadow

[daisycutter 29,604]

4 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

I seriously doubt a couple of degrees difference will be a factor in his decision. Or are you referring to cold as in lonely?

IMO if he leaves it will be because of coin and to be near people he grew up with. I actually believe football is currently not as important to him as it might be to other star players, which is understandable given what he's been through recently. Perhaps he has some delusional thought Ross Lyon and Freo are ready for finals. 

don't think anyone could be that delusional, moonie

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

4 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

I seriously doubt a couple of degrees difference will be a factor in his decision. Or are you referring to cold as in lonely?

IMO if he leaves it will be because of coin and to be near people he grew up with. I actually believe football is currently not as important to him as it might be to other star players, which is understandable given what he's been through recently. Perhaps he has some delusional thought Ross Lyon and Freo are ready for finals. 

 

 

Melbourne now has 5 million people. 

A big City can be very cold and lonely during winter. 

Jesse lost his Dad and a Family Jewel in the same year. I am not suprised he wants to go home. I was hoping we would get another year. 

[Demons11 6,915]

18 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes Hogan was a Melbourne player. Our messiah.   Big key forward described as the next Wayne Carey. 

Injuries and the go home factor mean we may not see his best in red and blue. 

MFC NEEDS TO MAKE FREO PAY TOP DOLLAR BOTH IN CONTRACT $$$ PLUS TWO FIRST ROUND PICKS

How does what Freo pay him impact us. 

Who cares about his contract value 

[chookrat 4,247]

On 9/27/2018 at 10:12 AM, Arrow said:

I had dinner with a friend last night who's brother is in the list management team at Freo.

He was adamant that Freo and Jesse had commercially already agreed to terms and all that was left was Melbourne and Freo to do the deal. 

I have it on good authority that Jesse Hogan will attend the B&F on Monday night and when he gets up to make a speech he will don a Freo scarf and launch into an impassioned plea to his teammates to never give up and never surrender, he will then hold up the Freo scarf before setting it alight and declare 'I am Melbourne' thus ending the Norm Smith curse and speculation re his playing future. Mark my word! 

On 9/27/2018 at 10:12 AM, Arrow said:

 

[beelzebub 23,313]

11 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

How does what Freo pay him impact us. 

Who cares about his contract value 

Doesn't impact us...it impacts their cap. That is all.

[spirit of norm smith 16,292]

Yes it does not impact us. My point was to make sure Jesse gets a good deal. He is leaving for family reasons but want him to get his right $$$. I think Hogan was about ready to take his game to a new level in 2019. We need to get 2 x 1st rounders (maybe even Freo 1st pick in 2018 draft and Freo future 1st pick in 2019 draft)

[Mach5 4,767]

2 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

I wonder if we'll hear anything through the best and fairest tomorrow night.  If Hogan has decided to leave, will he still go?  I get the feeling the players would be more than happy to have him there, especially the way Jones spoke about it, but he might feel uncomfortable going along to the night.

Either way, you would think we would hear something more concrete about it in the next 48 hours.  Perhaps he announces a new 5 year deal with Melbourne tomorrow night at the B&F??

 

I’m sorry mate, but he’s gone. Beyond the point of no return.

[Diamond_Jim 12,549]

15 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes it does not impact us. My point was to make sure Jesse gets a good deal. He is leaving for family reasons but want him to get his right $$$. I think Hogan was about ready to take his game to a new level in 2019. We need to get 2 x 1st rounders (maybe even Freo 1st pick in 2018 draft and Freo future 1st pick in 2019 draft)

Must say I thought that about 2018 in that he would redefine the role of CHF. It didn't happen in reality. Bit like Petracca didn't have a break out year.

Nothing is certain in this world

[beelzebub 23,313]

17 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes it does not impact us. My point was to make sure Jesse gets a good deal. He is leaving for family reasons but want him to get his right $$$. I think Hogan was about ready to take his game to a new level in 2019. We need to get 2 x 1st rounders (maybe even Freo 1st pick in 2018 draft and Freo future 1st pick in 2019 draft)

to be quite honest I couldnt care less what he gets paid by Freo. Jesse's a big boy...he has a manager..Im sure he'll be just fine  SONS...just fine 

I do have some interest in what Freo give us

[green_machine 36]

We are in the premiership window.   

Losing Hogan is bad.   Hogan is better than lever and Melbourne was in a much better position than adalaide (contracted vs uncontracted)

 

I think minimum is neale compensation, plus their first and brayshaw with seconds going back the other way.

Trading is "player worth" plus what the team can pay.   Hogan is worth more than picks 4 and 5 and freo can pay if they want him.

For those arguing differently one year of hogan may be the difference between a premership or not.  And if he stays for one year he could stsay for more.

Anyway i hope we keep him

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

8 minutes ago, green_machine said:

We are in the premiership window.   

Losing Hogan is bad.   Hogan is better than lever and Melbourne was in a much better position than adalaide (contracted vs uncontracted)

Unless Lever was considering going back into the the draft then this part is irrelevant.

[beelzebub 23,313]

19 minutes ago, green_machine said:

We are in the premiership window.   

YES (*1)

Losing Hogan is bad. Is it ?

  Hogan is better (*2)  than lever and Melbourne was in a much better position than adalaide (contracted vs uncontracted)(*3)

Im not sure why losing Hogan is bad . Or did you particularly refer to us being with an open window?

Either way Id say an argument could be mounted ( actually refer BRFE post #2776 this thread ) to put a perspective on this.

What I think happens is a big name leaves so it must be bad. Quite frankly I think Hogans value is about to be realised and I dont think it's necessarily bad.

I dont believe Hogan for all of his stats   is more influential on a game than Lever. With or without Hogan we've found a way to goal quite often.( some might argue its a better structure even.. ) Lever going down created a distinct problem that was never fully covered.

Any which way I agree with point 1  2 ive discussed 3 somewhat moot  

I think in years to come we will indeed look back upon this EOS as being quite pivotal , but I suspect not for the reasons many imagine just now

[Lord Neville X Flash 278]

1 hour ago, green_machine said:

We are in the premiership window.   

Losing Hogan is bad.   Hogan is better than lever and Melbourne was in a much better position than adalaide (contracted vs uncontracted)

 

I think minimum is neale compensation, plus their first and brayshaw with seconds going back the other way.

Trading is "player worth" plus what the team can pay.   Hogan is worth more than picks 4 and 5 and freo can pay if they want him.

For those arguing differently one year of hogan may be the difference between a premership or not.  And if he stays for one year he could stsay for more.

Anyway i hope we keep him

Its delusional to think we will get pick 5, 6 and brayshaw for hogan.

[old55 23,404]

4 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

It's not the specific pick, it's the access to the pool of players. 

The following 'superstars' were taken between 10 and 20 since 2010:

Tom Lynch (11), Brodie Smith (14), Isaac Smith (19), Toby Greene (11), Sam Doherty (12), Devon Smith (14), Brodie Grundy (19), Patrick Cripps (12), Lachie Weller (13), Jake Lever (14), Charlie Curnow (12), Daniel Rioli (15), Tom Doedee (17) Jade Gresham(18), Ryan Burton (19).

That just in the 10-20 range and there are plenty more All Australian/ BnF winners outside of that range.  This of course doesn't include players that would easily be in our starting 18. 

Draft picks are generally overrated, but there is some genuine A Grade talent available at pick 10, and we're looking at have 2 picks between 6 and 10.  

All true and good analysis.  But we are now flag contenders and we don't want to trade Hogan for talented 18 year olds. We need solid best 22 ready to go.

That's why I think May offers appropriate value with say pick 10 if we get that in the deal.

Probably good for the Suns too.  If they want a fresh cultural start they need him out so they can move forward and there's no complete guarantee they will get band 1 at the end of 2019.

My first preference is for something like Andrew Brayshaw  (we're not getting Cerra) and May (with pick 10) for Hogan.

[Mt. Dee-Maaan 607]

6 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

All true and good analysis.  But we are now flag contenders and we don't want to trade Hogan for talented 18 year olds. We need solid best 22 ready to go.

That's why I think May offers appropriate value with say pick 10 if we get that in the deal.

Probably good for the Suns too.  If they want a fresh cultural start they need him out so they can move forward and there's no complete guarantee they will get band 1 at the end of 2019.

My first preference is for something like Andrew Brayshaw  (we're not getting Cerra) and May (with pick 10) for Hogan.

as i've said before.. is andrew brayshaw ready to go?! where would he fit into our best 22?  discounting his brotherly scraps earlier in the year, what do you you know about him?.. i know he's not an outside runner. he was playing for a crap team and getting games, but you have to realise he would end up at casey, behind his brother, viney, harmes, oliver, etc...?

if his name was 'andrew smith', i bet he'd not even be in the conversation re: hogan trade.

[bazza226 74]

SEN this morning said the Jesse had told MFC that he wanted to go back to Western Australia.

i would assume that Freo would be the team he’s looking at. A deal will be done.

 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,826]

Excuse my ignorance but how would we end up with pick 10 to use on May? 

As I’ve posted previously, if it happens, the deal will be picks 4 and 5 for Hogan. What am I missing? 

[Dr.D 1,771]

people asking for andrew brayshaw are probably just looking at his surname  and his early draft position and thinking we should chase him. the truth is, i didnt see much in his debut season to get excited about. cerra on the other hand looks twice the player.

[Mickey 4,647]

Just now, Ethan Tremblay said:

Excuse my ignorance but how would we end up with pick 10 to use on May? 

As I’ve posted previously, if it happens, the deal will be picks 4 and 5 for Hogan. What am I missing? 

Talk of Freo trading 4 or 5 to port for 9 and 10. Then ontrading the 10 to us with the remaining low pick for Jesse. 

 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,826]

10 minutes ago, Good Lord George said:

Talk of Freo trading 4 or 5 to port for 9 and 10. Then ontrading the 10 to us with the remaining low pick for Jesse. 

 

Thanks. The only talk over here is picks 4 and 5 to Melbourne for Hogan. 

Considering their lack of low picks (although they’ll also receive 22 for Neale), it makes sense, given their position, Fremantle may conduct the above trade with Port. 

Edited September 30, 2018 by Ethan Tremblay