Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Arrow 1,257]

I had dinner with a friend last night who's brother is in the list management team at Freo.

He was adamant that Freo and Jesse had commercially already agreed to terms and all that was left was Melbourne and Freo to do the deal. 

[Moonshadow 17,678]

Gee wiz, anyone else now glad Jason Taylor, Todd Viney and Josh Mahoney would have done their due diligence weeks ago and assessed Hogan's trade value? 

[Superunknown 4,246]

  On 27/09/2018 at 00:12, Moonshadow said:

Gee wiz, anyone else now glad Jason Taylor, Todd Viney and Josh Mahoney would have done their due diligence weeks ago and assessed Hogan's trade value? 

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I'm glad they're not head in sand like some

[chook fowler 19,783]

Like all investments you need to get a decent return. So we need to get at least what we gave up to get him and then some - and this does not include a 26 year old backman with dubious fitness and work ethic. We must do better than that.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

  On 27/09/2018 at 00:10, Wiseblood said:

If we got two first rounders out of Freo for Hogan then I'd be throwing both at GWS for Josh Kelly. If Shiel does leave then I doubt they'll entertain the idea, but Kelly is far more suited to us than Shiel is,not to mention being the better player. 

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Agree, but would want a high 2nd rounder (i think they have 23) as well as Kelly for two high 1st rounders. Or swap of our 2nd for 23, ours likely to be about 33 or 34.

Kelly +23 for Hogan? Where do I sign?

[Dee tention 619]

Best Hogan trade for me;

IN - Pick 6, Cerra & Langdon

OUT - Hogan & Pick 33

Or

IN - Pick 5 & 6 (we go to the super draft)

OUT - Hogan

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,468]

  On 26/09/2018 at 23:39, Macca said:

Your view is a micro view Gonzo ... mine is a macro viiew and therefore the correct view.

Facts are facts ... Stephen Wells for instance went from forever drafting stars to constantly drafting B- players.

And draft picks relate to the system that draft picks are related to ... and the system is flawed and always has been.

Jummy Toumpas,  Cale Morton,  Brock McLean and hundreds of others were star,  standout juniors.  That is why they were top-end draft picks.

If you believe tnat it is just the recruiters constantly making rash or poor decisions you are wrong.

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Recruiters look for different things when drafting. What our recruiters previously looked for were not qualities that would necessarily translate to senior footy.

I agree the draft is a bit of a lottery. That's why I would want us to flip any draft picks we might get for known quantities. But I also think our current recruiting team are streets ahead of what we've had previously. They're not just hitting on top 10 picks, they're hitting on picks in the 50's.

I also think top 10 picks, while not a home run, are closer to 75-80% chance of hitting than busting and that probability has improved over recent years with a greater investment in drafting/recruiting and better environments for development.

[Its Time for Another 4,306]

If I'm Freo I do whatever it takes at the high end of overs to get this across the line. Hogan is a once in a generation specimen. Big bodied forward with elite athleticism to run in the midfield. He hasn't reached his potential yet. He's regarded as the player with the most upside on our list.  If I was them and I had to give up pick 5 and Cerra who they've only had for a year of development and who is ultimately a flight risk and which means they go to this year's draft which is one of the strongest in years still retaining pick 6 they'd have to seriously entertain it. I don't know if the Brayshaw connection will push us towards him but Cerra sounds like he's elite and on another level to Brayshaw. I don't really know either of them other than reputation. What do people think. 

 

[Cards13 9,117]

  On 26/09/2018 at 23:39, Superunknown said:

Editor: "Denham! Where's your next story!?"

Denham: "Cr#p cr#p cr#p! Hmm let me check my snip file! Well well! Ah yes! My annual 'Hogan to Freo' rumour mill! Let's see if this broken clock can finally be right! I'll just check Demonland to see if they have some intel! Well well! A "Hogan to Freo" thread. Capital work, my dear fellows and fellowettes! You have verily written my article for me!" Hits the keyboard

Editor: "What what what? What fresh hell is this? No way Hogan is off to Freo!"

Denham: "Ah -ha! We can go Ryan Holliday on this story! Post this article, reference well - placed sources (cough: Demonland rumourtrage), others will pick it up and off we go!"

Editor: "This had better end in new subscribers for Rupert!"

Denham: "What could go wrong! It's a non story"

Article files.

Demonland explodes.

Article picked up by HS, PerthNow, SEN.

Rumour goes Ryan Holliday.

Demonland goes nuclear.

Jesse's management: "Yo homeboy! Seems Freo is into you. Let me have a chat with them?"

JH: "Sure, I do love the Dees and want to stay but can't hurt to ask"

Mgr to Freo FD: "Yo, wassup with Hoges. Throw some numbers at me"

Freo: "We'll get back to you"

Rumours continue swirling. Demonland is in the final stages of Red Giant phase. People's heads are literally exploding.

Freo puts offer on table. Freo is half surprised by all this.

Hogan convenes meeting with Dees. Deal done.

Hogan to Freo.

Denham to Editor: "Well that escalated quickly, what?"

Editor: "Well it is how Sky News brought down Turnbull. Now pass me that Balvennie would you? This is cause for celebration!"

 

 

And that my friends is how you engineer a player move.

(For those fans of Milligan's " "Rommel?" "Gunner Who?" " I feel it would make things even more ludicrous to read in a clipped German-English accent in the vein of that book.)

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I think if you add in Freo pushing this really hard behind the scenes to the media as well then you have it in a nutshell. In saying that Hoges is his own man and makes his own choices.

[clark's kick 155]

  On 26/09/2018 at 14:06, Chook in Perth said:

like I could be bothered posting for that.

BTW, fresh intel. He's gone. 

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When CIP speaks, we should listen.

Personally I'm devastated. Don't want him to go.

[GCDee 3,203]

I don't know why anyone would think he is staying....

We literally have cleared out 8 senior spots on the list (not including Kent & Hogan) with only picks 33, 43,51& 87. 

Clearly we have players & more picks coming in, Jesse really is the only player the picks we need to get more players through the doors. 

Jesse is a great player, I think he is an amazing talent which has shown some amazing resilience in his short career.  However he has demanded a VERY large pay packet without IMO fully buying into our team. 

He clearly has some deficiencies in his game, & can drop his head if things aren't going his way early. 

Lets look forward to our future with players that will only buy in 100% to this team. 

IF we can gain picks 4 & 5 I would say this is a fair trade (possibly slight overs in our favor) however Freo need to get this deal done as they have been chasing a key forward for 15 years. 

[hells bells 2,023]

If he goes it has to be 2 x top 10 picks or equivalent players.  1 first rounder is an absolute gift to Freo.  Lachie Weller was traded for pick 2 FFS

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,753]

  On 27/09/2018 at 00:25, Dee tention said:

Best Hogan trade for me;

IN - Pick 6, Cerra & Langdon

OUT - Hogan & Pick 33

 

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I would take this in a heartbeat.

I'd say we may have to give up next years' 1st rounder also though for this to happen.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Is Dom Is Good

[Macca 17,127]

  On 27/09/2018 at 00:26, Dr. Gonzo said:

Recruiters look for different things when drafting. What our recruiters previously looked for were not qualities that would necessarily translate to senior footy.

 

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Hindsight comment as were not saying that at the time ... in fact,  you were probably all-in with the pucks then like most others here were

  22 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I also think top 10 picks, while not a home run, are closer to 75-80% chance of hitting than busting and that probability has improved over recent years with a greater investment in drafting/recruiting and better environments for development.

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Wrong again .Gonzo .. for instance 3 of the first 4 picks in the 2012 draft are busts.

It would be easy for me to simply go along with the crowd but the crowd is often wrong

The draft is flawed and that is a fact so because it is flawed,  that factor has to be taken into account.

 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,840]

  On 27/09/2018 at 00:12, Arrow said:

I had dinner with a friend last night who's brother is in the list management team at Freo.

He was adamant that Freo and Jesse had commercially already agreed to terms and all that was left was Melbourne and Freo to do the deal. 

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Judd's Grandma wasn't at this dinner by any chance?

[jumbo returns 6,745]

Not happy about any impending departure, but the club has to fulfill its due diligence

Also, I heard that another club is heavily into Josh Mahoney?? Anyone else hear that? It was from that journo on OTC......

[John Demonic 5,988]

  On 27/09/2018 at 00:40, hells bells said:

If he goes it has to be 2 x top 10 picks or equivalent players.  1 first rounder is an absolute gift to Freo.  Lachie Weller was traded for pick 2 FFS

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No trades will happen for any clubs if that is the new standard, it's obviously an anomaly born of GCS desperation to get a home town boy home.

[Jones 62]

Out: Hogan + pick 33

In: 2 first round picks + Langdon

[hells bells 2,023]

We paid 2 first rounders for Lever.

Crows paid 2 first rounders for Gibbs.

[beelzebub 23,392]

In Hogan's going we'll be after player/s imho. Unless there is someone very special in the draft I think as a club we've adopted the general thinking of Roos ( and others...some here ) 

Trade is for getting players ready to go, ready to fill a role. You go shopping in drafts for projects etc.

[GCDee 3,203]

  On 27/09/2018 at 01:06, beelzebub said:

In Hogan's going we'll be after player/s imho. Unless there is someone very special in the draft I think as a club we've adopted the general thinking of Roos ( and others...some here ) 

Trade is for getting players ready to go, ready to fill a role. You go shopping in drafts for projects etc.

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If we get two top 10 picks I wouldn't mind shopping one around & retaining another. 

[DubDee 26,711]

anyone know what Hogan is on now as our highest paid player?  I assume ~800K

if he signed a long term deal with us it would be ~1mil you would think?

[Moonshadow 17,678]

  On 27/09/2018 at 01:06, hells bells said:

We paid 2 first rounders for Lever.

Crows paid 2 first rounders for Gibbs.

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To be more accurate, we paid 2017 pick 10 and probably 16 this year plus late pick swaps for Lever.

A bargain IMO.

[SFebes 4,884]

  On 27/09/2018 at 01:28, DubDee said:

anyone know what Hogan is on now as our highest paid player?  I assume ~800K

if he signed a long term deal with us it would be ~1mil you would think?

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Yes and Yes, I think TMAC is behind him on $700k, JH currently $800k and would be pushing for 7 figures.

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,753]

  On 27/09/2018 at 01:30, Moonshadow said:

To be more accurate, we paid 2017 pick 10 and probably 16 this year plus late pick swaps for Lever.

A bargain IMO.

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Agree. The idea of 2 first round picks becomes more relevant when you know where they fall.

If we get picks 4 & 5 from Freo this is a huge difference to picks 10 & 16.