Jump to content

Featured Replies

7 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Spot on.  The afl.com ladder predictor is terrible functionality wise.

Squiggle predictor is much easier to use, but only goes up to 65 points and you cant predict a draw.

If you click the box titled [SCORES] in the bottom left corner you can enter in your own bigger scores manually and create draws from there. 

 
7 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Squiggle predictor is much easier to use, but only goes up to 65 points and you cant predict a draw.

What use it that considering Geelong will rack up triple digit wins in their last 2 games.

Everyone's talking about worst-case scenarios, making the eight, top four, even getting to second…but I'll go you one better. For your consideration, I humbly present… 

The Dream Ladder
(Melbourne wins every game, and every underdog wins)

HUcxyKj.png

 
9 minutes ago, Chook said:

Everyone's talking about worst-case scenarios, making the eight, top four, even getting to second…but I'll go you one better. For your consideration, I humbly present… 

The Dream Ladder
(Melbourne wins every game, and every underdog wins)

HUcxyKj.png

You know it makes sense


9 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none

Yeah, it's great - makes the stats very accessible.

34 minutes ago, Chook said:

Everyone's talking about worst-case scenarios, making the eight, top four, even getting to second…but I'll go you one better. For your consideration, I humbly present… 

The Dream Ladder
(Melbourne wins every game, and every underdog wins)

I think that'd mean Hawthorn first up at the 'G, a win and into the prelim v WCE at the 'G, and then onto the flag. I like it!

Sadly Chook's dream ladder won't eventuate, but I think a Dees win on Sunday and a WB upset versus the Roos would make us a lock for finals.

We'd be two games and ~15% above the teams outside the top eight, with just two games to go.

Unlikely to occur, but it'll give me some interested in the early game at Etihad.

 
On 8/9/2018 at 12:46 PM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points.

Geelong's only won two games all year by more than 60 and one of those was a 61 point win. They only beat Carlton by 28 points at Geelong earlier in the year, the week after we beat them by 100.

I'm not so sure Geelong is just going to romp to two consecutive 100-point wins.

And that doesn't take into account the points advantage we get in your scenario from beating Sydney.

And you're assuming Sydney beats GWS and Hawthorn to get to 14.

Now that Geelong has lost, if we win tomorrow the probabilities are firmly in our favour.

Ive had a quick play and from here:


-Win all three and finish 3rd

-Win any one or two games and finish 6th (i think there are a couple of permutations where we drop to 7th and one where we're climb to 5th)

-Lose all 3 and miss finals

 

I'm sure there are some scenarios where that doesn't play out but they will require major upsets.

Edited by deanox


Highly likely that even if we win only one more we could have a home final. Assuming we are competitive in the other two games. 

If Haw beats Sydney in the last round they will be top4, if they don’t we could be 5th.

Dont see much value in that second win unless there is more drama around us.

I am thinking we finish 5 th and will play Sydney or port at the G. 

Big game tomorrow and have decided watching may not be good for health!

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Highly likely that even if we win only one more we could have a home final. Assuming we are competitive in the other two games. 

If Haw beats Sydney in the last round they will be top4, if they don’t we could be 5th.

Dont see much value in that second win unless there is more drama around us.

Winning any one or two games will leave us 6th, with Sydney beating Hawthorn looks like the only real possibility* of us finishing 5th. And assuming we beat Sydney tomorrow, they will be out of the race in round 23 unless they beat GWS.

Win 3 and we will finish 3rd and have an away final against WC.

I must admit I see lots of value in the second win because it means beating another finalist on the eve of finals, helping to create that belief which I hope translates to finals. 

Someone said earlier this week that a win tomorrow could set us on a roll towards late September but a Los could see us miss entirely.  I agree with this. 

 

 

* the other possibilities involve Collingwood losing to Freo or Port.

 

Edited by deanox

If we win three, then we finish third (second if Brisbane upsets West Coast in the final round).

If we win two, it looks like we'll finish somewhere in the 4-6 region, I think.

If we win one, it's probably something like 6-9, depending on other results.

If we don't win another game, we'll finish 9-11.


Ideally, 2nd, 4th, 5th or 6th to avoid having to travel to Perth. 

 

Not sure where we'll finish or who we play, but i reckon this mob are steadily developing an 'anywhere, anyone, anytime' mentality. 

Building to something special, certainly not complete, but not far away. Maybe not this year, but something is different this time. 

I believe.

2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If we win three, then we finish third (second if Brisbane upsets West Coast in the final round).

If we win two, it looks like we'll finish somewhere in the 4-6 region, I think.

If we win one, it's probably something like 6-9, depending on other results.

If we don't win another game, we'll finish 9-11.

I'm not sure we're can miss if we win one, unless crazy results go against us. 

If we win one game then three of the following would need to happen for us to miss:

-Geelong would need to win 2 by 85+ points.

-Port would need to beat both Collingwood (mcg) and Essendon (AO)

-North would need to win all 3 of Dogs, Adelaide (AO) and St Kilda.

-Sydney would need to win 2 of Demons,  GWS (spotless) and Hawthorn (SCG).

 

 

1 minute ago, Moonshadow said:

Not sure where we'll finish or who we play, but i reckon this mob are steadily developing an 'anywhere, anyone, anytime' mentality. 

Building to something special, certainly not complete, but not far away. Maybe not this year, but something is different this time. 

I believe.

For me, make the eight is the step we need. Win or lose, doesn’t matter. 

2019 I predict big things. Gaff in the red and blue, weeds a tap ruck/ forward, lever in back line with frost, omac, hibs and jets, Hoges, tmac and milkshake smashing goals and the engine room of Oliver brays petracca and Tyson being supplied by the bearded giant. 

This is not including a surprise draft pick and a trade. 

Just win tomorrow chaps and let’s give the dees supporters so long overdue joy! 

 


Just now, Dirts said:

For me, make the eight is the step we need. Win or lose, doesn’t matter. 

2019 I predict big things. Gaff in the red and blue, weeds a tap ruck/ forward, lever in back line with frost, omac, hibs and jets, Hoges, tmac and milkshake smashing goals and the engine room of Oliver brays petracca and Tyson being supplied by the bearded giant. 

This is not including a surprise draft pick and a trade. 

Just win tomorrow chaps and let’s give the dees supporters so long overdue joy! 

 

Eagles winning also means I less week we can’t play him! 

Been playing around with ladder predictor if we only win 1 game I can’t see us falling lower than 7th, win the next 2 games then round 23 v Giants is massive, winner gets 3rd loser gets 6th 

I might be the only one on this forum, I am genuinely confident that we can win the next three - insofar as, not that we will, but we certainly can, based on our game plan and players. 

IMO - for the record, aside from three weeks (Richmond Hawthorn, St Kilda) where one of the teams was too good (Richmond) and the other two after quarter time we did not bring intensity/spread etc - yes we've had close losses which is disappointing, and the margins of error for a win or a loss are small sometimes.

Melbourne can comfortably beat anyone, anywhere. 

 

After the game Pyke said:  "...he hadn't thought about...how to handle the next fortnight..."

They play North and Pies. 

Will Crows put the cue in the rack and consolidate their spot for a better draft pick for those talented SA draftees or will they play for pride.  That can have a massive impact on the final 8, including our chances, if it comes down to the wire.

With Tex likely to be out I reckon they will shut up shop.?

Edited by Lucifer's Hero

Not sure if it has been mentioned on here yet, but it's actually possible for us to make 8th spot without winning another game.  Would require North losing today and next week (against Adelaide in Adelaide), as well as Port losing their last two (which are against Collingwood here, and Essendon over there).

Effectively means Geelong repose Port in the current Top 8.


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • REPORT: St. Kilda

    Hands up if you thought, like me, at half-time in yesterday’s game at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs that Melbourne’s disposal around the ground and, in particular, its kicking inaccuracy in front of the goals couldn’t get any worse. Well, it did. And what’s even more damning for the Melbourne Football Club is that the game against St Kilda and its resurgence from the bottomless pit of its miserable start to the season wasn’t just lost through poor conversion for goal but rather in the 15 minutes when the entire team went into a slumber and was mugged by the out-of-form Saints. Their six goals two behinds (one goal less than the Demons managed for the whole game) weaved a path of destruction from which they were unable to recover. Ross Lyon’s astute use of pressure to contain the situation once they had asserted their grip on the game, and Melbourne’s self-destructive wastefulness, assured that outcome. The old adage about the insanity of repeatedly doing something and expecting a different result, was out there. Two years ago, the score line in Melbourne’s loss to the Giants at this same ground was 5 goals 15 behinds - a ratio of one goal per four scoring shots - was perfectly replicated with yesterday’s 7 goals 21 behinds. 
    This has been going on for a while and opens up a number of questions. I’ll put forward a few that come to mind from this performance. The obvious first question is whether the club can find a suitable coach to instruct players on proper kicking techniques or is this a skill that can no longer be developed at this stage of the development of our playing group? Another concern is the team's ability to counter an opponent's dominance during a run on as exemplified by the Saints in the first quarter. Did the Demons underestimate their opponents, considering St Kilda's goals during this period were scored by relatively unknown forwards? Furthermore, given the modest attendance of 6,721 at TIO Traeger Park and the team's poor past performances at this venue, is it prudent to prioritize financial gain over potentially sacrificing valuable premiership points by relinquishing home ground advantage, notwithstanding the cultural significance of the team's connection to the Red Centre? 

      • Thanks
    • 4 replies
  • PREGAME: Collingwood

    After a disappointing loss in Alice Springs the Demons return to the MCG to take on the Magpies in the annual King's Birthday Big Freeze for MND game. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Thanks
    • 127 replies
  • PODCAST: St. Kilda

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 2nd June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we have a chat with former Demon ruckman Jeff White about his YouTube channel First Use where he dissects ruck setups and contests. We'll then discuss the Dees disappointing loss to the Saints in Alice Springs.
    Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
    Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • Thanks
    • 37 replies
  • POSTGAME: St. Kilda

    After kicking the first goal of the match the Demons were always playing catch up against the Saints in Alice Spring and could never make the most of their inside 50 entries to wrestle back the lead.

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 306 replies
  • VOTES: St. Kilda

    Max Gawn still has a massive lead in the Demonland Player of the Year award as Christian Petracca, Jake Bowey, Clayton Oliver & Kozzy Pickett round out the Top 5. Your votes please. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 31 replies
  • GAMEDAY: St. Kilda

    It's Game Day and the Demons have traveled to Alice Springs to take on the Saints and they have a massive opportunity to build on the momentum of two big wins in a row and keep their finals hopes well and truly alive.

      • Clap
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 907 replies