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Run home to Finals - 2018

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  On 26/06/2018 at 15:04, Delusional demon 82 said:

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/latest-afl-run-home-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-14-2018/news-story/eeb04407d5fd11ba78aed3789ffc89f9

Wouldn’t this be nice ! 

It would be better if they told us who we would beat.

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    If we miss finals, I think we all just have to accept that we're simply not good enough and don't have the list or the players to win enough games to qualify.

    The hype of the media and the talk around the work water cooler may just be totally wrong about the MFC. We're simply a youngish mid table side that may or may not take the next step into finals over the next 1-3 years.

    It also seems to me that 2017 was a much easier year to qualify then 2018, given that you had a wildly inconsistent Essendon qualify and a West Coast side that appeared at the time to be on their last legs. 2017 may have been the year that got away for the MFC.

    I think we'll be be fighting tooth and nail to win 13 games.

    Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

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      On 26/06/2018 at 23:08, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    If we miss finals, I think we all just have to accept that we're simply not good enough and don't have the list or the players to win enough games to qualify.

    The hype of the media and the talk around the work water cooler may just be totally wrong about the MFC. We're simply a youngish mid table side that may or may not take the next step into finals over the next 1-3 years.

    Heads must roll if we miss

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      On 26/06/2018 at 23:09, timbo said:

    Heads must roll if we miss

    I first thought that too.

    But perhaps we just don't have the cattle.

    Our defence on paper is not good. When Oscar McDonald (who is still learning on the job) is your number 1 key defender at aged 21, I think we're in trouble.

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      On 26/06/2018 at 23:13, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    I first thought that too.

    But perhaps we just don't have the cattle.

    Our defence on paper is not good. When Oscar McDonald (who is still learning on the job) is your number 1 key defender at aged 21, I think we're in trouble.

    Or else there needs to be some accountability for the baffling seletions and continued selection of Vince and Lewis

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      On 26/06/2018 at 06:02, The Chazz said:

    The only "decent" team that Collingwood have beaten is us.  They have also struggled to solidly defeat poor sides.

    With Treloar out for the rest of the year, it will be interesting to see how they go.  The $7 on offer for them to miss the 8 (via Sportsbet) is certainly appealing.  

    People forget the Pies were absolutely taken to the cleaners by the Cats only a few weeks ago  No goals in a half or something close to it.

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      On 26/06/2018 at 23:25, timbo said:

    Or else there needs to be some accountability for the baffling seletions and continued selection of Vince and Lewis

    While Lewis and Vince may lack in some areas on field (ie pace), they make up for in their games experience.

    He spoke very well last night on 360, and Jack Reiwoldt explained that if you took the likes of Vince and Lewis off the field (ie put them in Casey), then the knowledge would be lost, and our younger players would have little direction.  Was an interesting way of looking at it, but I'm sure would frustrate some on here.

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    The ladder predictor snow up on afl.com.au again. I just ran through and came up with the following at the end of round 23 (attached image).

    Had us finishing on 14 wins, which lands us 8th. This obviously won't be accurate, but the numbers at the half way point of the season don't lie. Teams are going to have to win more games than usual to make the 8 this year. 

    Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 2.52.51 pm.png

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      On 27/06/2018 at 04:56, Lord Travis said:

    The ladder predictor snow up on afl.com.au again. I just ran through and came up with the following at the end of round 23 (attached image).

    Had us finishing on 14 wins, which lands us 8th. This obviously won't be accurate, but the numbers at the half way point of the season don't lie. Teams are going to have to win more games than usual to make the 8 this year. 

    Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 2.52.51 pm.png

    Should this come to pass.

     

    Would you prefer as is V Cats on the Big Stage.

    Or to win one extra shove the Pies down and face the Dawks.

    Neither fills me with confidence and each as bad as each other

    Better to keep winning and finish 4th with a double chance.

    At least then we pass Roos' KPI of making the finals this year.

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    I had us ending up third at 15-7. Seventh was also 15-7. Our percentage if it holds up is almost worth an extra win. 

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      On 27/06/2018 at 05:49, Clintosaurus said:

    I had us ending up third at 15-7. Seventh was also 15-7. Our percentage if it holds up is almost worth an extra win. 

    Anywhere from 9th to 6th. But I used the points predictor with some confidence based on when we win , we win big (9 goals plus.

     

    Thus the prediction of 119% could be low and I think 125% will be closer giving some insurance at the end.

    Sunday will tell if the team is still on that track regarding crushing the poorer opposition.

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      On 27/06/2018 at 04:56, Lord Travis said:

    The ladder predictor snow up on afl.com.au again. I just ran through and came up with the following at the end of round 23 (attached image).

    Had us finishing on 14 wins, which lands us 8th. This obviously won't be accurate, but the numbers at the half way point of the season don't lie. Teams are going to have to win more games than usual to make the 8 this year. 

    Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 2.52.51 pm.png

    A question...to all and any.

    If this were the case then EVERY team above us will have beaten us.

    They will have done so because they nullified out "game" and played theirs.

    We have NO plan/game B

    Why would anyone presume any success ? Its just a question. I think a valid one.

    Do some subscribe to different outcomes for same scenarios ?

    Einstein had a thought about that ?

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    I have us 5th but to do that we have to win our 4 games we should win plus pinch 3 more, I had us beating Adelaide and Swans and GWS, it’s going to be tough not much margin for error 

    50B342AA-5800-4314-B338-AE1218156570.png

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      On 26/06/2018 at 14:45, SaberFang said:

    I noticed this a few weeks ago as well.

    The media cream themselves fellating Collingwood when they beat Carlton by 20 points on the weekend. We pump Carlton by 109 points and the media fall over themselves in a race to proclaim us downhill skiers that haven't beaten anyone good.

    FMD the media bias is ridiculous.

    Don't turn on SEN tonight. It's Collingwood BLAH, BLAH.?

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    • Haha 1

    We'll lose one, maybe two more games for the year

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    • Haha 1

    Every time anyone (myself included) does a ladder predictor exercise, the thing that is commonly missing is the occasional upset win where a rubbish side knocks over a top 8 side.

    Just last week Essendon beat West Coast in a game possibly no one thought Essendon could win. Brisbane's 56-point win over Hawthorn remains one of the biggest WTF moments of the season.

    Those sorts of results are going to occur again in the run home. We might be victim to one, given everyone is simply assuming we get to 12 wins on the back of St Kilda, Fremantle, the Dogs and GC.

    But, of course, it only takes one or two of those sorts of upsets to the sides around us to make it that much easier for us to get in if we can get to 13.

      On 26/06/2018 at 23:13, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    I first thought that too.

    But perhaps we just don't have the cattle.

    Our defence on paper is not good. When Oscar McDonald (who is still learning on the job) is your number 1 key defender at aged 21, I think we're in trouble.

    If we miss finals, it is almost certainly going to come down to our inability to take our contested possession and clearance focused game plan and make it work against high pressure sides with a number back. Not some key forward getting a hold of us.

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    • Author

    Win the next 3 like we should and we will have a full head of steam going into the Geelong game.

    Beating them down there would be a big scalp and give us 4 wins on the trot heading into the final turn....   but for now, one week at a time.   ?

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    We’re lucky that other teams around us also had surprise losses this weekend. It sort of nullifies our [censored] up today.

    Dropping an easy game like that makes the run home harder now though. We now probably need to take a scalp like Geelong in Geelong or Sydney to make it (assuming we don’t stuff up and win our expected matches).

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      On 01/07/2018 at 13:49, Lord Travis said:

    We’re lucky that other teams around us also had surprise losses this weekend. It sort of nullifies our [censored] up today.

    Dropping an easy game like that makes the run home harder now though. We now probably need to take a scalp like Geelong in Geelong or Sydney to make it (assuming we don’t stuff up and win our expected matches).

    On todays performance the Bulldogs will belt us by 10 goals. Year after year it is the same shizen from us. Build up hope and then shoot it down in flames.

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      On 01/07/2018 at 13:49, Lord Travis said:

    We’re lucky that other teams around us also had surprise losses this weekend. It sort of nullifies our [censored] up today.

    Dropping an easy game like that makes the run home harder now though. We now probably need to take a scalp like Geelong in Geelong or Sydney to make it (assuming we don’t stuff up and win our expected matches).

    Geelong probably looking gettable, if we raise our standard. What a depressing topic this one is though tonight.

    Edited by John Demonic

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    We won't make it. Bulldogs will tear us a new one as quick teams do on the MCG.

    We're not getting close to Sydney or West Coast, Adelaide with Tex and Sloane back in will toy with us, GSW will rip us apart on the transition.

    IMO GC, Geelong and Freo are our last wins for the year. 

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