2018's 'breakout' player

[Sir Why You Little 36,954]

47 minutes ago, rjay said:

Maynard...pre Gilligan

I hope our Maynard has a better work ethic...

Ahh yes of course...

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,325]

Lots of calls for Hogan to have a breakout year.

2012 : drafted mini draft

2013 : ineligible to play

2014 : sidelined with back injury 

2015 : 44 goals 19 (20 games) age 20

2016 : 41 goals 33 (21 games) age 21

2017 : 20 goals 6 (10 games) age 22

I would of thought a key forward who can kick 44 and 41 goals in his first two years has already had a break out year. In 51 games he’s kicked 105 goals 58, for an average of roughly 2 goals 1 per game. At first glance that reads well but a lot of those 58 behinds were easy misses from 20-30 metres out with little to no angle. Jesse excels in some aspects of his game, his contested marking would be one of them. But as has been identified before, for a key forward he doesn’t take the big pack marks and struggles with distance and accuracy when kicking for goal. Jesse is and can still be a very dangerous player/forward but as it stands,     it’s those deficiencies are the difference between him being a very good player and a star of the game. An extension of that is his contract, he’s out of contract at the end of 2019 at which point he will be 24, he will no doubt be looking for 4-5 years at 1 million plus per season. He has the next two years to show how good he can be, then any new contract can and should be based purely on his talent. Any “potential” or “go home” factor can now be removed. For me I’m still undecided on how good he can be but I no longer think he is a once in a generation player as he has so often been described. Weighing up everything that’s happened, i would have Cameron, Lynch, Danniher and Brown all ahead of him. Also after watching last years final series, so many talented key forwards were worked out by opposition clubs and shut out of games, I found myself wondering how he would he have gone had he played for the Crows/Giants/Swans etc.

[Guest]

Tracc for mine. We saw him move into the midfield out of necessity after Jack went down during the Swans game but he didn’t have the tank to maintain it.

Another preseason and my guess is that he can play a floating half forward role while transitioning through the midfield. He will give us an unpredictable edge as while he isn’t blessed with explosive pace, he is built like the proverbial outhouse. In years to come, there will be very few who will be able to match him in regard to power through the hips in the midfield.

[In Harmes Way 7,735]

I’m glad reading this thread we’ve got such depth that a breakout year from anybody is only providing icing on a very tasty cake.

im in the Weideman camp, I reckon if we’re going to emulate the late 50’s in the next 6-7 years, he’s got to be a high quality regular  in the 1’s. Love the pressure aspect of his game.

[mauriesy 7,256]

On 12/01/2018 at 2:33 PM, Deemania since 56 said:

Frosty to take fullback with OMac to work on things at Casey

Get over the idea that OMac needs to go back to Casey to learn. He's my prediction for a breakout year, if there is such a thing.

[Adam The God 30,110]

I'm hoping Maynard.

If Petracca, Salem and Brayshaw can take the next step, along with Maynard, a midfield of these guys complimenting Oliver, Viney, Tyson and Jones is an excellent and deep ball-winning midfield. 

The other guy that would excite me is Oscar McDonald. With Lever's leadership and solidity down there, I hope Oscar can play his game a little more and develop into a solid KPB himself.

2018 is going to be exciting! I still see it as a development year, but I expect nothing less than playing finals. I think we'll fall between 5th and 8th place. However, if we get a little bit of luck and all our kids improve at once, we can make the top 4. 

So to me it is still a development year. That's not to say you can't pinch a flag in a development year, but our guys need to get used to playing finals and delivering consistently. I think 2018 will be a failure if we can't win at least one final. Hopefully our breakout player can compliment the steady improvement of others around him.

[DeeSpencer 25,434]

53 minutes ago, A F said:

I'm hoping Maynard.

If Petracca, Salem and Brayshaw can take the next step, along with Maynard, a midfield of these guys complimenting Oliver, Viney, Tyson and Jones is an excellent and deep ball-winning midfield. 

The other guy that would excite me is Oscar McDonald. With Lever's leadership and solidity down there, I hope Oscar can play his game a little more and develop into a solid KPB himself.

2018 is going to be exciting! I still see it as a development year, but I expect nothing less than playing finals. I think we'll fall between 5th and 8th place. However, if we get a little bit of luck and all our kids improve at once, we can make the top 4. 

So to me it is still a development year. That's not to say you can't pinch a flag in a development year, but our guys need to get used to playing finals and delivering consistently. I think 2018 will be a failure if we can't win at least one final. Hopefully our breakout player can compliment the steady improvement of others around him.

I think and hope Maynard will improve but I'm still struggling to see how he gets significant opportunity to play games and particularly midfield minutes. If he is to play regularly he's going to need to improve as a forward. Salem, Jones, Brayshaw and Tyson can all play more of an outside role, Petracca obviously spends a lot of time forward and I'd like to see Oliver develop as a forward as well, but he's still down the pecking order. Similarly there's nominal forwards like ANB, Hogan, Melksham and Hannan who can rotate in to the midfield mix. I guess I want to see more that shows he's not just an good prospect as a stoppage player but can run and link around the ground as well.

 

[old dee 23,747]

Sadly a player seldom explodes onto the scene any longer.

In the 21st century the game is so organised and managed that players make incremental improvement year on year.

In by gone times before drafting players could arrive a club in their early 20's sight unseen and play very well from their first game.

i serious doubt any player at the MFC will make a big leap forward in 2018.

What is more likely to happen is that half a dozen players will show improvement on last year.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

18 minutes ago, old dee said:

Sadly a player seldom explodes onto the scene any longer.

In the 21st century the game is so organised and managed that players make incremental improvement year on year.

In by gone times before drafting players could arrive a club in their early 20's sight unseen and play very well from their first game.

i serious doubt any player at the MFC will make a big leap forward in 2018.

What is more likely to happen is that half a dozen players will show improvement on last year.

Turn that frown upside down, OD.

I see OMac having an AA year, Weid to kick 60 goals by Queen's Birthday and for Clarry to hit Joel Selwood in a tackle in Round 1 so hard that his head is buried in the MCG turf.

[jnrmac 20,053]

I think Maynard will be an instant hit for us but if we are to really improve its the likes of Brayshaw, Salem and Weideman that need to turn it on.

[old dee 23,747]

9 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Turn that frown upside down, OD.

I see OMac having an AA year, Weid to kick 60 goals by Queen's Birthday and for Clarry to hit Joel Selwood in a tackle in Round 1 so hard that his head is buried in the MCG turf.

So what have you been drinking with dinner tonight Wiseblood?

Whatever it was has had a dramatic affect on your sense of humour!!!!

[Wiseblood 24,637]

1 minute ago, old dee said:

So what have you been drinking with dinner tonight Wiseblood?

Whatever it was has had a dramatic affect on your sense of humour!!!!

Just a beer with dinner my friend!  Went down rather well, too.

Seriously though, while I see the merit in what you're saying, there can still be players who can surprise us.  Oliver is one who showed remarkable improvement from '16 to '17.  ANB is another who showed terrific improvement as well.  Players still have it in them, even if we don't see it all the time.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,018]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Tommy Mac will top our goal kicking this year.  He's strong, durable and mobile and Hogan will be taking the best defenders each week.  I don't know if that really counts as a breakout year since he's been our best tall defender for years, but it's a new position for him. 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

Gus Brayshaw for mine,  assuming he is injury free. This bloke has enormous upside and we haven't come close to seeing what he is capable of, in my opinion 

[obbafan 128]

Smith.

[dpositive 1,663]

On 12/01/2018 at 5:40 PM, ding said:

Watts.

 

Back it in.

Wondered how long it would take?

Sylvia????

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,220]

20 minutes ago, dpositive said:

Wondered how long it would take?

Sylvia????

Is he training the house down?

[dpositive 1,663]

2 minutes ago, bingers said:

Is he training the house down?

If he is it's a definite "breakout"

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,476]

5 hours ago, old dee said:

Sadly a player seldom explodes onto the scene any longer.

In the 21st century the game is so organised and managed that players make incremental improvement year on year.

In by gone times before drafting players could arrive a club in their early 20's sight unseen and play very well from their first game.

i serious doubt any player at the MFC will make a big leap forward in 2018.

What is more likely to happen is that half a dozen players will show improvement on last year.

Clayton Oliver?

[Little Goffy 14,437]

11 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Lots of calls for Hogan to have a breakout year.

2012 : drafted mini draft

2013 : ineligible to play

2014 : sidelined with back injury 

2015 : 44 goals 19 (20 games) age 20

2016 : 41 goals 33 (21 games) age 21

2017 : 20 goals 6 (10 games) age 22

I would of thought a key forward who can kick 44 and 41 goals in his first two years has already had a break out year. In 51 games he’s kicked 105 goals 58, for an average of roughly 2 goals 1 per game. At first glance that reads well but a lot of those 58 behinds were easy misses from 20-30 metres out with little to no angle. Jesse excels in some aspects of his game, his contested marking would be one of them. But as has been identified before, for a key forward he doesn’t take the big pack marks and struggles with distance and accuracy when kicking for goal. Jesse is and can still be a very dangerous player/forward but as it stands,     it’s those deficiencies are the difference between him being a very good player and a star of the game. An extension of that is his contract, he’s out of contract at the end of 2019 at which point he will be 24, he will no doubt be looking for 4-5 years at 1 million plus per season. He has the next two years to show how good he can be, then any new contract can and should be based purely on his talent. Any “potential” or “go home” factor can now be removed. For me I’m still undecided on how good he can be but I no longer think he is a once in a generation player as he has so often been described. Weighing up everything that’s happened, i would have Cameron, Lynch, Danniher and Brown all ahead of him. Also after watching last years final series, so many talented key forwards were worked out by opposition clubs and shut out of games, I found myself wondering how he would he have gone had he played for the Crows/Giants/Swans etc.

Fair call, but to his credit his kicking for goal has improved over time, to the point of being exceptionally accurate in 2017 (20 goals, 6 behinds in 10 games)

Continuing with the 'pro' argument, just for discussion's sake, I actually think then when he's been in form Hogan has stood out from the group of excellent young key forwards in part because his 'accumulated small contributions' added up. He has a great work rate when his head is up.

The contested marks point is also interesting - in his first season, 2015, he average 2.3/game to be just barely shy of leading the league, behind only Hawkins and Lynch.

I'll be happy if Hogan just progresses at a respectable mature rate from here, even if he doesn't rip the world apart with his bare hands. But it is still a possibility that he'll be a true champion, and that possibility is exciting.

[Little Goffy 14,437]

49 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Clayton Oliver?

Who else, hmm... Patrick Cripps. And he didn't even win the Rising Star in his year.

Jaegar 'Omear, Dyson Heppell, Joel Selwood, Cyril Rioli, Oliver Wines, Marcus Bontempelli.

It is definitely true that most young players, no matter how talented, only really dominate by their third or fourth year these days. But I'm not sure that is any different to how it was a decade or even twenty years ago.

[DemonWA 3,928]

Luke Tapscott 

[Matt Demon 1,418]

3 hours ago, DemonWA said:

Luke Tapscott 

I blame the sprinkler 

[Dee Dee 1,105]

7 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Who else, hmm... Patrick Cripps. And he didn't even win the Rising Star in his year.

Jaegar 'Omear, Dyson Heppell, Joel Selwood, Cyril Rioli, Oliver Wines, Marcus Bontempelli.

It is definitely true that most young players, no matter how talented, only really dominate by their third or fourth year these days. But I'm not sure that is any different to how it was a decade or even twenty years ago.

I’d add Andrew McGrath to that list, a very mature young man who arrived ready made for the big time.

Back to the Dee’s and Maynard. Those who have seen him play speak very highly of him but my fear is his age, at 26 and a rookie is he too mature to learn new tricks?

Edited January 14, 2018 by Dee Dee

[old dee 23,747]

40 minutes ago, Matt Demon said:

I blame the sprinkler 

No! definitely JW's fault.