Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[SFebes 4,884]

49 minutes ago, Chook said:

Are you saying West Coast aren't that good? I beg to differ. We just got over them with Kennedy and LeCras out.

And we also did so without Hogan, Watts and Jones.

[dee-tox 4,835]

Jones, Viney, Salem, Watts, Jeffy and Hogan are all big outs. One third of your best team. 

The next month will be difficult even though they have been all heart in the last fortnight.

[bing181 9,193]

23 minutes ago, dee-tox said:

Jones, Viney, Salem, Watts, Jeffy and Hogan are all big outs. One third of your best team. 

The next month will be difficult even though they have been all heart in the last fortnight.

Except that they're not all out. Hogan due back in a week or two, Watts this week, and we don't know that Viney or Garlett will be out at all.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Just did the predictor.  Had us finishing 5th, to play Essendon in the first week.  We beat them, then had to play Power in Adelaide, then back up the next week to beat Adelaide over there in the prelim.  We then went on and beat GWS in the GF.

It is an amazingly even season, where a loss one week could see us drop to 7th, then win the following week and be top 4.  Great for the competition, but not for our nerves!

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

I keep waiting to see some definite ease of schedule. Like being 12-8 and having Pies and Lions left to play.

But doing the predictor... we're so far from having any answers. When I do it, in the weeks we have winnable games, the other 5th-11th games do as well. Then when we play against someone going for the same spot we want, it seems across the round 5th-11th are all playing each other as well.

I did a predictor losing the ones against sides we're close to, winning the easy ones and losing the tough ones. And I had us playing Pies in round 23 for 6th... lose and we'd be 9th on 13 wins?!!!

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

8 hours ago, bing181 said:

Except that they're not all out. Hogan due back in a week or two, Watts this week, and we don't know that Viney or Garlett will be out at all.

Herald sun reporting Garlett to miss.

[Diamond_Jim 12,516]

2 hours ago, The Chazz said:

Just did the predictor.  Had us finishing 5th, to play Essendon in the first week.  We beat them, then had to play Power in Adelaide, then back up the next week to beat Adelaide over there in the prelim.  We then went on and beat GWS in the GF.

It is an amazingly even season, where a loss one week could see us drop to 7th, then win the following week and be top 4.  Great for the competition, but not for our nerves!

Love the ending but two games in a row in Adelaide .... wow ........such confidence ...... Can you give us the starting 22 in the GF by any chance. I have Weed as a smokey kicking 4 and announcing himself to the world !!

[Diamond_Jim 12,516]

20 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

I keep waiting to see some definite ease of schedule. Like being 12-8 and having Pies and Lions left to play.

But doing the predictor... we're so far from having any answers. When I do it, in the weeks we have winnable games, the other 5th-11th games do as well. Then when we play against someone going for the same spot we want, it seems across the round 5th-11th are all playing each other as well.

I did a predictor losing the ones against sides we're close to, winning the easy ones and losing the tough ones. And I had us playing Pies in round 23 for 6th... lose and we'd be 9th on 13 wins?!!!

Fascinating ... everyone assumes 12 gets you in the final 8 but with the closeness of the season and the top four not being dominant you may well be right that it will require 13 and percentage (something we don't have much of).

[Jaded No More 68,855]

I think we can safely assume we will make finals. How far we go I don't know. 

I think our lack of finals experience is going to hurt. Making finals and winning a game in my opinion will be a fantastic achievement and something to really build on for next season. 

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Just now, Diamond_Jim said:

Fascinating ... everyone assumes 12 gets you in the final 8 but with the closeness of the season and the top four not being dominant you may well be right that it will require 13 and percentage (something we don't have much of).

I think if I did it again and again it wouldn't come up like that. there's that many hard to pick games. I've done it maybe 10 times over the last few weeks and 12 is always the team in 8th. Let's be honest, we're all picking blues, lions, pies to lose literally every game, and that's really not likely to happen.

You think we don't have percentage? I didn't do margins just because it's hard enough to pick wins. But ours is pretty good isn't it?

[The Chazz 4,077]

9 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Love the ending but two games in a row in Adelaide .... wow ........such confidence ...... Can you give us the starting 22 in the GF by any chance. I have Weed as a smokey kicking 4 and announcing himself to the world !!

You can write your own ending.  I was just giving you the chapters leading up to it.

[The Chazz 4,077]

5 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I think we can safely assume we will make finals. How far we go I don't know. 

I think our lack of finals experience is going to hurt. Making finals and winning a game in my opinion will be a fantastic achievement and something to really build on for next season. 

I expect us to make finals, but I wouldn't be "safely assuming it" just quite yet.

With the extra injuries that we have picked up this weekend, it's going to be a huge test for us this Friday night.  We drop it, we don't necessarily drop back ladder positions, but we become part of the big group of teams just one game ahead of those outside the 8.

While last week was a huge win, a win this week is vital on so many levels.

[Jaded No More 68,855]

Just now, The Chazz said:

I expect us to make finals, but I wouldn't be "safely assuming it" just quite yet.

With the extra injuries that we have picked up this weekend, it's going to be a huge test for us this Friday night.  We drop it, we don't necessarily drop back ladder positions, but we become part of the big group of teams just one game ahead of those outside the 8.

While last week was a huge win, a win this week is vital on so many levels.

You would hope that even if we lose this week (which would not surprise me, our players look stuffed and we have a whole host of injuries and players playing under duress), we could win at least 4 more games for the season with games against Carlton, St Kilda, North, Brisbane and Collingwood coming up. 

Edit: and if we don't beat North finally, we don't deserve to make finals anyway.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Jaded

[The Chazz 4,077]

Just now, Jaded said:

You would hope that even if we lose this week (which would not surprise me, our players look stuffed and we have a whole host of injuries and players playing under duress), we could win at least 4 more games for the season with games against Carlton, St Kilda, North, Brisbane and Collingwood coming up. 

 

We lose this week, the worst we can drop, regardless of other results, is 6th.  It's likely we will stay 5th.  It will mean we are on equal points as the 8th team, and only 1 game ahead of 9th-11th.

I don't think the issue is about us winning 4 more games as a minimum.  The problem is that we can't control how many games those 6 teams under us winning.  Some of them, especially those currently outside the 8, have quite a soft draw (Bulldogs for example), or have great momentum (Sydney).

I expect that we will win 4 of the games you mentioned, which may just get us in.  I still think we will need to beat one of Sydney, Adelaide or Port to get us in the middle of the 8.  We win all 5 of those games you mentioned, as well as one of Syd/Adel/Port, then we could sneak 4th or 5th.

That's why I think this Friday is HUGE.

 

[loges 6,767]

57 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Fascinating ... everyone assumes 12 gets you in the final 8 but with the closeness of the season and the top four not being dominant you may well be right that it will require 13 and percentage (something we don't have much of).

Usually speaking, the closer the season, the less wins you need to get in not more, and we have the 4th best percentage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KysaiahMessiah 725]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Fascinating ... everyone assumes 12 gets you in the final 8 but with the closeness of the season and the top four not being dominant you may well be right that it will require 13 and percentage (something we don't have much of).

?? 4th best percentage currently

[Diamond_Jim 12,516]

1 hour ago, loges said:

Usually speaking, the closer the season, the less wins you need to get in not more, and we have the 4th best percentage

There are the same number of games each year (198) to be divided between the teams.

Usually the top four teams if not more take a large number of those games thus leaving less games to be "shared" between the remainder.

This year the top teams are having their fair share of losses and thus not reducing the win pool at the same rate.

The other factor is how many games are the bottom four taking out of the available win pool.

On the percentage we sit at roughly 100%. Compared to the other teams we have no advantage in that area is what I was saying. Unlike say Port that effectively have one more game as a result of their percentage. If we are forced to rely on percentage we cannot afford to lose games by any great margin.

[titan_uranus 24,964]

7 hours ago, Jaded said:

I think we can safely assume we will make finals. How far we go I don't know. 

I think our lack of finals experience is going to hurt. Making finals and winning a game in my opinion will be a fantastic achievement and something to really build on for next season. 

I think we're close to that point but IMO not yet.

It might be a dose of MFCSS but I don't yet feel comfortable simply banking wins against Carlton, North, St Kilda, Brisbane or Collingwood - we've struggled against Carlton for years, we're on an 11-year losing streak to North and only snapped that same streak against St Kilda this year, we only just beat Collingwood on QB and we never seem to play our best against Brisbane.

Very pessimistic, I know, but after the past 11 years I won't be convinced we're going to play finals until it's mathematically impossible for us to miss. Right now I still think we're more likely to miss the finals than make the top 4 (that might change if we beat Sydney this week, though).

[Chook 15,012]

JONATHAN BROWN'S MELBOURNE BEST 22 (2017-06-26)

FB...Jetta...OMac...Hibberd
HB..Vince...Frost...Hunt
CR..Salem..Jones..Lewis
HF..Watts...Hogan..Hannan
FF..Garlett..TMac...Petracca
RK..Gawn..Viney...Oliver

IC..Tyson...Harmes...Melksham...Pedersen

This is Jonathan Brown's version of our best 22 from tonight's episode of On the Couch. If we scrambled into 4th spot and played GWS at Spotless with this side, what odds would you all give us of winning it all?

 

[PaulRB 6,334]

If we can get that squad all playing their best in the month leading up to the finals we should go very deep and have a good chance of knocking off GWS.

Time and the fickle gods of footy will tell. 

[fr_ap 2,454]

I think all of you and the media need to seriously pump the brakes. Weve had a fantastic month but there is a way to go to 'safely assume finals' (cannot believe what I am reading from an mfc supporter). We have a young team and combative game style - it will catch up at some point, tipping around rnd 17-18 if not through more injuries (which is starting with sore groins, hammies and hips  - the first to go) then definitely through a lack of run. 

We are relying on big and good games from kids in hunt, petracca, oliver and to a lesser extent harmes, anb, hannan, frost to win games. It wont continue, inconsistency is inevitable. 

Try your best to ignore the media circus. They get on and off the st kilda train, it's quite bizarre. They literally say whatever pops into their brain. Reactive with no foresight, sense of the game and often, limited actual knowledge of our team. 

We may scrape in, we may be safely in at 5th or 6th, we could easily miss. Either way, I think we will look back at this year as the year of injuries. Its just too hard to overcome. 

[PaulRB 6,334]

Or we may not drop another game and storm into September in top spot.

its an open race.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,018]

Looking at the remaining games, it's going to be an interesting ride. 

Home  Sydney    MCG
Away  Carlton     MCG
Home  Adelaide  Darwin
Home  Port         MCG
Away   North       Tassie
Away   Giants     Canberra
Home  St Kilda    MCG
Home  Brisbane  MCG
Away   Collingwood  MCG

There are a lot of games there we should win but historically have shown a tendency drop.  Collingwood, The Saints, North and even Carlton and Brisbane are worrying for that reason.  Adelaide in Darwin is going to be a stretch and Port the week after.  We almost always lose the game after playing in the NT.  Sydney this week is a huge test against the form team in the competition. GWS at home should be a loss.  

I think if everything goes really well we drop 2-3 more games, ending on 14-15 wins.  Worst case...  I could see us losing any of these on a bad day. Call it two more wins as worst realistic scenario.  Midline then would be five more wins as an ok but not great finish to the season.  Even then we'd need to win one of Sydney, Adelaide, Port, North or the Giants, all big asks but doable.

 

[Chook 15,012]

16 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

Looking at the remaining games, it's going to be an interesting ride. 

Home  Sydney    MCG
Away  Carlton     MCG
Home  Adelaide  Darwin
Home  Port         MCG
Away   North       Tassie
Away   Giants     Canberra
Home  St Kilda    MCG
Home  Brisbane  MCG
Away   Collingwood  MCG

There are a lot of games there we should win but historically have shown a tendency drop.  Collingwood, The Saints, North and even Carlton and Brisbane are worrying for that reason.  Adelaide in Darwin is going to be a stretch and Port the week after.  We almost always lose the game after playing in the NT.  Sydney this week is a huge test against the form team in the competition. GWS at home should be a loss.  

I think if everything goes really well we drop 2-3 more games, ending on 14-15 wins.  Worst case...  I could see us losing any of these on a bad day. Call it two more wins as worst realistic scenario.  Midline then would be five more wins as an ok but not great finish to the season.  Even then we'd need to win one of Sydney, Adelaide, Port, North or the Giants, all big asks but doable.

 

I reckon there's a serious case for us only losing one more game for the season (GWS at Canberra). Assuming we don't blow up and we keep injuries at bay, we're a massive chance to make top 4.

The other scary game in that lot is Port after a Darwin game. But it's at the MCG which you'd have to presume would give us the advantage.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Chook

[DeeWiz 296]

Dee wiz, I'm not looking forward to reading Demonland after a couple of losses in a row.

Assuming it ever happens, Dees Premiers 2017