Mid Season Review

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

4 hours ago, Dappa Dan said:

They're all such obvious answers...

Except one. Given we're 5-5 and getting Gawn and Hogan back you'd think we'd be a good chance to go at least 7-5. But take a look at the draw. Holy smokes do we have it tough. No finals this year. 

I don't think our draw is as tough as it looks.

Our last 3 games are all at the G against teams outside of the 8 as it stands now.

Saints Brisbane & Collingwood.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

1 hour ago, Petraccattack said:

The remainder of the draw looks pretty good to me.  The only game that I really worry about is vs GWS, but its at a neutral ground so that helps.  We have the Crows again, and thats also at a neutral venue in Darwin.

Finals are there if we want it.

The only game you're worried about is GWS? We have West Coast in perth who nearly beat GWS there yesterday. The reigning premiers playing pretty good footy. Crows are flat out better than us, and we won't catch them napping this time. Power are absolutely awesome this year IMO. On top of that other games like Sydney, North and Saints, if they turn up, can beat anyone.

But this is more about us than the opposition. We've gotten a lot better over recent years, but we're not finished yet. And a lot of people have Gawn and Hogan coming back and playing the best footy of their careers. I don't see it that way. I reckon we're a chance any game. And we're a chance to flake out any game. With a SUPER favourable draw in the first 10 weeks, we're 5-5. The second half is nowhere near as helpful.

Add to that this year is a nightmare for the tipsters. Who the hell knows what's what.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

Best game so far: Adelaide. Only one other visiting side has gone within 10 goals of them and that was GWS (56 points). And we played absolutely sublime football.

Worst game so far: Fremantle - if we miss finals by a game, this will be the one I come back to as the one that got away, more so than Hawthorn or North.

Most improved player: Garlett

A player who needs to lift: Someone like Kent is an obvious option but of the "best 22" players, I say Jack Watts. Not all his fault (e.g. the ruck situation) but IMO 2016 showed he has a lot more to offer than he is currently providing.

Who is currently leading the Bluey?: Oliver

Best recruit: Hibberd (no contest, even with the positives Lewis has brought. Hibberd is a top 5 recruit in 2017, unless your name is Rohan Connolly and you're too thick to even mention him).

Will we make the finals?: If the question was "can we make the finals?", the answer is a clear "Yes". We are good enough to beat anyone, anywhere, and we're only marginally out of the 8 as it stands. But the evenness of the competition, and our uncanny ability to lose the games we should win, gives me no confidence whatsoever in saying we will make finals. But to get off the fence, I'll say: Yes.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

3 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

The only game you're worried about is GWS? We have West Coast in perth who nearly beat GWS there yesterday. The reigning premiers playing pretty good footy. Crows are flat out better than us, and we won't catch them napping this time. Power are absolutely awesome this year IMO. On top of that other games like Sydney, North and Saints, if they turn up, can beat anyone.

But this is more about us than the opposition. We've gotten a lot better over recent years, but we're not finished yet. And a lot of people have Gawn and Hogan coming back and playing the best footy of their careers. I don't see it that way. I reckon we're a chance any game. And we're a chance to flake out any game. With a SUPER favourable draw in the first 10 weeks, we're 5-5. The second half is nowhere near as helpful.

Add to that this year is a nightmare for the tipsters. Who the hell knows what's what.

GWS had 10 best 22 players out yesterday. West Coast are average.

We've already beaten Adelaide once and we didn't "catch them napping", North did that the week prior, they were on the rebound if anything.

The only top 8 side Port Adelaide has beaten is Fremantle (their percentage of 81.5% says it all about their credentials).

The point is, we can beat any club this year at our best. Each of the remaining 12 games will come down, IMO, to how we approach it. At our best, we can win all 12. At our worst, we can lose all of them.

I'm not writing off wins against West Coast, Adelaide or GWS, just like I'm not pencilling in wins against Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane or North.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

3 minutes ago, Mud Dogs Gonna Win said:

I don't think our draw is as tough as it looks.

Our last 3 games are all at the G against teams outside of the 8 as it stands now.

Saints Brisbane & Collingwood.

Before round 1 most on here picked the Saints. People are kidding themselves if they think they've gotten bad suddenly.

How many games have we won at the G this year?

I'll give you Pies and Lions though. Having said that, I had us beating Tigers, Hawks and Freo handsomely.

I can't see how anyone thinks the draw is easier on the back end, other than to say we get the Lions there. GWS, Crows, Dogs, Saints, WC, Sydney, Power and North would have been 8 goals up at half time in Darwin had they been our opposition this week.

There's no picking anything this year. Any given week we can smash good teams interstate or lose to scrubs at home. We need to go 7-5. I think we go 6-6 and just miss out.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

GWS had 10 best 22 players out yesterday. West Coast are average.

We've already beaten Adelaide once and we didn't "catch them napping", North did that the week prior, they were on the rebound if anything.

The only top 8 side Port Adelaide has beaten is Fremantle (their percentage of 81.5% says it all about their credentials).

The point is, we can beat any club this year at our best. Each of the remaining 12 games will come down, IMO, to how we approach it. At our best, we can win all 12. At our worst, we can lose all of them.

I'm not writing off wins against West Coast, Adelaide or GWS, just like I'm not pencilling in wins against Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane or North.

So we agree then. Can win or lose any given week. ie... 6-6... equalling 11-11, which won't be enough.

You're skewing your stats. Watch port closely. They look a strong side. I have them at 4th on ladder predictor.

And yes we did catch Crows napping. Look at how they've played the last two weeks, specifically at names, compared to when we played them. The amount of good players they had in their side playing badly on that night, that are right back in form now. That won't happen again. If we played them now, even at the G, they'd be warm favourites. They've earned it.

People can claim their own crystal ball is smarter than mine. That's the fun of it. But the sides there have shown they can dominate teams that are mentally on and off. And as you say, on and off describes us to a tee.

So much comes down to Gawn and hogan. I love both of them, and have since their first games. But we're asking a lot for Jesse to kick 6 every week and Max to smash ruckman after ruckman after a couple of months off.

I want to see Pies, Dogs and West Coast wins, and I'll get back on board. Pies we're better than (though they have the midfield and ruck to hurt us in our strength). Dogs absolutely slaughter us usually, but we did get a hold of them a couple of years ago. West Coast we should have beaten last year so I'm hopeful there too.

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

8 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

Before round 1 most on here picked the Saints. People are kidding themselves if they think they've gotten bad suddenly.

How many games have we won at the G this year?

I'll give you Pies and Lions though. Having said that, I had us beating Tigers, Hawks and Freo handsomely.

I can't see how anyone thinks the draw is easier on the back end, other than to say we get the Lions there. GWS, Crows, Dogs, Saints, WC, Sydney, Power and North would have been 8 goals up at half time in Darwin had they been our opposition this week.

There's no picking anything this year. Any given week we can smash good teams interstate or lose to scrubs at home. We need to go 7-5. I think we go 6-6 and just miss out.

If we go 6-6 with a good percentage. I Think we can make it.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

1 minute ago, Mud Dogs Gonna Win said:

If we go 6-6 with a good percentage. I Think we can make it.

I read that somewhere, that due to the evenness, that could happen.

Have you done ladder predictor? Any way I shake it out it seems like 11-11 is 9th and 12-10 is 8th.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Dappa Dan

[Webber 10,468]

Best game: Adelaide

Worst Game: North Melbourne.

Most Improved: Frost. Run and gun, strong, and vastly improved disposal. 

Needs to Lift: Petracca. Harsh I know because he's just getting the feel of it, but it's his fault for showing us how good he can be, then goes missing. Could be a tank thing, but also a consistency of mindset I think. 

Bluey: Hibberd

Best recruit: Hibberd

Finals: Seriously NFI.

[beelzebub 23,379]

Adelaide

Hawthorn

Frost

Omac

Oliver

Hibberd

Unlikely unless we learn to play 4 qtr footy and string wins together. Reality is we haven't.

[poita 3,902]

Best game so far: Didn't see Adelaide, but St Kilda was the closest we have come to playing four decent quarters. Important result given the venue and the opposition as well.

Worst game so far: North - the one game I thought we never looked like winning. We have been poor other weeks, but looked a chance at 3/4 time each week.

Most improved player: Oliver. There were signs last year, but his ability to perform all day, every day has been a giant leap forward.

A player who needs to lift: There is a few, but anyone who has been dropped to Casey would fit the bill. Get dropped twice (eg Kent) and you are really struggling.

Who is currently leading the Bluey?: Oliver by miles.

Best recruit: Hibberd is the obvious one, but Hannan is the one that has most exceeded my expectations.

Will we make the finals?: No, we are probably two wins short of where we should be. (Almost) every game from here in is winnable, but we are guaranteed to lose a few games as clear favourite as well. I think we'll finish at least 1 win short.

[P-man 13,366]

Best game so far: Duh.

Worst game so far: The first half of the Essendon game rivalled the first half against GC. In fact it probably topped it. Daniher wearing the wrong boots is what kept us in the game and the extra day off clearly didn't hurt in being able to run over them in the second half. We were putrid in the first half. The fact we ended up winning doesn't change that.

Most improved player: Can't go past Oliver. Freak show.

A player who needs to lift: Kent. Big time. Looking like he's almost at a crossroads.

Who is currently leading the Bluey?: Oliver.

Best recruit: Hibberd aka the player who I first suggested in April last year as a potential recruit and received a total of 4 likes. Mainly tumbleweeds. Reasons for not wanting him included "we have Melksham". 

Will we make the finals?:  Pretty much pull an answer out of a hat for this. Who the hell knows. I probably see us just missing out again but improving ladder position to 9th. We could sneak in but injuries to key players means lost opportunities in the first half of the season playing at home against ordinary opposition (Freo, North etc). The problem with this season is actually determining who are the good teams. Seems to be a whole bunch of middle of the road teams, of which we are one. So anything is possible.

Edited May 29, 2017 by P-man

[Wunders 397]

Fox sports news has done a report card on the Dees. See link below:

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/midseason-report-card-melbourne-in-midtable-position-despite-loss-of-key-players-through-injury/news-story/2f3b01e4afae837d947d5912e5abb441

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,184]

Best game so far: Crows

Worst game so far: Losing at the G to Freo did it for me. 

Most improved player: Oliver, Garlett, Hunt in that order. Special mention to ANB.

A player who needs to lift: T-Mac once allowed to settle down back second half of year could be the difference between finals and not. 

Who is currently leading the Bluey?: Oliver with Hibberd fast approaching. 

Best recruit: Hibbo

Will we make the finals?: Yes.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

Wonder who we will pick up and drop for next season.

Apparently the Giants had ten top players out over the weekend.

We have Gawn, Spencer, Vanders, Garland and Hogan out and struggling to fill the gaps.

Hibbo has been wonderful. Everyone agrees about Oliver and Crows as best game.

We need to keep picking up more talent. Lewis was good but Im aware that like Jones and Vince they dont have too many seasons left. 

We also have a number of players who have not played (2 ruckmen) . Wonder what the future holds for them as well as both the Smiths.

Its been an interesting year to say the least. I thought last year was a tight season. Now 11 wins plus % may make the cut.

Pies game is a must win andmay get us in the eight. Hope we can string at least 3 in a row. Now is the perfect time to do it.

Feel sorry for Pedo as he seemed out of favour and I feel he only got a gig due to injuries. He is all heart. 

[titan_uranus 25,020]

13 hours ago, Dappa Dan said:

So we agree then. Can win or lose any given week. ie... 6-6... equalling 11-11, which won't be enough.

You're skewing your stats. Watch port closely. They look a strong side. I have them at 4th on ladder predictor.

And yes we did catch Crows napping. Look at how they've played the last two weeks, specifically at names, compared to when we played them. The amount of good players they had in their side playing badly on that night, that are right back in form now. That won't happen again. If we played them now, even at the G, they'd be warm favourites. They've earned it.

People can claim their own crystal ball is smarter than mine. That's the fun of it. But the sides there have shown they can dominate teams that are mentally on and off. And as you say, on and off describes us to a tee.

So much comes down to Gawn and hogan. I love both of them, and have since their first games. But we're asking a lot for Jesse to kick 6 every week and Max to smash ruckman after ruckman after a couple of months off.

I want to see Pies, Dogs and West Coast wins, and I'll get back on board. Pies we're better than (though they have the midfield and ruck to hurt us in our strength). Dogs absolutely slaughter us usually, but we did get a hold of them a couple of years ago. West Coast we should have beaten last year so I'm hopeful there too.

It's MFCSS to simply say we beat Adelaide because they were "napping". Gives us no credit when the performance warranted it.

Port's stats are good. They're a finals-bound side, IMO. But we play them in Melbourne and as I said, they haven't beaten a top 8 side except Fremantle who aren't that good.

The point isn't "we will win more than 6 games", it's that there is no game on the schedule that we should be writing off and saying "we cannot beat X". For that reason, no particular game worries me any more than any other.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Just now, titan_uranus said:

It's MFCSS to simply say we beat Adelaide because they were "napping". Gives us no credit when the performance warranted it.

Port's stats are good. They're a finals-bound side, IMO. But we play them in Melbourne and as I said, they haven't beaten a top 8 side except Fremantle who aren't that good.

The point isn't "we will win more than 6 games", it's that there is no game on the schedule that we should be writing off and saying "we cannot beat X". For that reason, no particular game worries me any more than any other.

No. It's not. I didn't comment on how we played at all. I thought we were great. But they were massively down on form as well as us being massively up. Sloane had two bad weeks and we got one of them. I could go through player by player, but it's clear you disagree. I'm not saying we didn't deserve to win. I think we've deserved to win almost every week. I just can't see the Crows playing as badly as they did against North and us again this year. As I said. They'll be warm favourites anywhere they play, against anyone but GWS. That much isn't opinion.

Yeah. Port will be tough anywhere. I think they're better than 5-4 that they are now. But who knows what they'll be like when we get them. I have a ton of respect for how they go about it right now though, so like with the Crows, I'm not pencilling in a win.

Ok. Well the original point of the post I made was that we've improved across the board, but due to fixture and the fact we're 5-5... We won't make finals. Your point might have been the "we have a chance to beat anyone on any day," but that's not a rebuttal of what I said. I think we're on the same page oddly enough. I'll give us a chance any week after the Crows game. But I won't with confidence.

One other thing noones mentioned... the old adage that young players tire as the season progresses. the kids doing the heavy lifting... some of them are still in their teens.