The Petracca v McCartin debate reprised

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

1 hour ago, fndee said:

Overall you can imagine MCartin will be a good footballer so this pick isn't in the Toumpas/Wines league but would they have been better choosing Petracca? Absolutely 

This is the thing, with top five draft picks you don't just want a "good" player, you need someone special like Petracca and Oliver already are (hopefully Brayshaw follows suit).

I mentioned on here early in Toumpas' career that if that draft was done again I'd be surprised if he's get picked up at all, that is a monumental drafting mistake.

[mo64 5,853]

Some people are getting way ahead of themselves with their assessment of what Petracca has done to date. He's hardly been an instant star like Judd and Selwood. At this stage, he's provided some cameos without ever being a top 3 player in any game. 

McCartin has shown a fair bit, but injuries have cruelled him. He's still a developing key forward who needs to get his body right, so any comparison with Petracca to date is pointless. On pure talent, Petracca has a higher ceiling, but only time will tell as to who has the greater impact at AFL level. 

If you want to crystal ball, I'd see McCartin as a future Josh Kennedy (WCE) and Petracca as a future Jake Stringer. 

If we didn't get Weideman, I would say it's a 50/50 call as to who I'd prefer long term.

 

[Deestroy All 14,262]

2 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Some people are getting way ahead of themselves with their assessment of what Petracca has done to date. He's hardly been an instant star like Judd and Selwood. At this stage, he's provided some cameos without ever being a top 3 player in any game. 

McCartin has shown a fair bit, but injuries have cruelled him. He's still a developing key forward who needs to get his body right, so any comparison with Petracca to date is pointless. On pure talent, Petracca has a higher ceiling, but only time will tell as to who has the greater impact at AFL level. 

If you want to crystal ball, I'd see McCartin as a future Josh Kennedy (WCE) and Petracca as a future Jake Stringer. 

If we didn't get Weideman, I would say it's a 50/50 call as to who I'd prefer long term.

 

No one said instant star. But it's clear as day what's coming with Petracca. Who knows with McCartin. 

McCartin has been cruelled by injuries, sure. Petracca did have a full knee reco too you know? Maybe why he's not an "instant star."

[dazzledavey36 54,478]

10 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

If St Kilda wanted a key forward they should have selected Peter Wright.

Wrights biggest weakness was for such a big bloke he was quite soft. In saying that i think Wright will be a star and a much better player then McCartin.

 

[Lucifers Hero 39,672]

12 minutes ago, Abe said:

Interestingly hawthorn people who had track training there in his under age year said his attitude was the best of all the young players they've seen and they were shocked he didn't go pick 1. 

I remember asking at the time if they were aware of any attitude issues, and they said outside of him being quite cocky/arrogant there wasn't so maybe it's a rumour we spread to get him at pick 2

...and Roos knocked that out of him quick smart by making him 'pay' (ie wait and wait to debut) for injuring himself playing basketball in the preseason... 

[Ted Lasso 19,425]

8 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Some people are getting way ahead of themselves with their assessment of what Petracca has done to date. He's hardly been an instant star like Judd and Selwood. At this stage, he's provided some cameos without ever being a top 3 player in any game. 

McCartin has shown a fair bit, but injuries have cruelled him. He's still a developing key forward who needs to get his body right, so any comparison with Petracca to date is pointless. On pure talent, Petracca has a higher ceiling, but only time will tell as to who has the greater impact at AFL level. 

If you want to crystal ball, I'd see McCartin as a future Josh Kennedy (WCE) and Petracca as a future Jake Stringer. 

If we didn't get Weideman, I would say it's a 50/50 call as to who I'd prefer long term.

 

I think petracca is already as good as jake stringer and we will see this very clearly as the year plays out. 

[mo64 5,853]

3 minutes ago, Deestroy All said:

No one said instant star. But it's clear as day what's coming with Petracca. Who knows with McCartin. 

McCartin has been cruelled by injuries, sure. Petracca did have a full knee reco too you know? Maybe why he's not an "instant star."

Petracca has all the tools to be an elite player, but the great unknown is what role he'll play in the future. He could become a Gary Ablett, who started as an average half forward and developed into an elite midfielder. Or he could become a Jake Stringer, who despite winning an AA berth at a young age, I'm unconvinced that he'll ever reach elite level.

IMO, there's greater certainty of Oliver reaching elite levels than Petracca, even though Petracca has more natural ability.

[mo64 5,853]

11 minutes ago, Abe said:

I think petracca is already as good as jake stringer and we will see this very clearly as the year plays out. 

Stringer made AA in his 3rd year playing a similar role, so that's a big call. If Petracca kicks over 50 goals as Stringer did in his 3rd year, then we'll finish top 4.

[ILLDieADemon 804]

I'm just glad we got it right for a change!!

From all report on Pretracca pre draft he was going to be a once In a life time player and we are already starting to see what they were talking about.

Unfortunitly for the Saints McCartin will be just like Watts and will never live up to his draft pick expectations. We probably won't see what his capable of till his mid 20's that is of cause if he doesn't end up like Trengrove and get a serious injury. 

We can all relate to the Saints on this one. 

[Gator 17,313]

When people reference Petracca's "attitude" I believe it was more maturity than any arrogance. 

And supposedly he made great gains in this regard in his final year of the TAC, during which time he played a lot more in the midfield. 

He may not have done well in the psyche test, but from all reports he's loved by his teammates and probably continued to mature. 

We have some potential superstars on our list.  The type of talent that plays in premierships.  I've seen enough to be confident it's not a false dawn. 

Edited April 1, 2017 by ProDee

[Redleg 40,871]

Today's style of football has actually conspired against Paddy.

The FF must still leave the goalsquare and run, that is not Paddy's strong suit.

Watch today's FF's, they cover more ground in a game than Plugger did in a season.

Forward pressure, zones etc, have changed the landscape.

[Ted Lasso 19,425]

26 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Stringer made AA in his 3rd year playing a similar role, so that's a big call. If Petracca kicks over 50 goals as Stringer did in his 3rd year, then we'll finish top 4.

I won't measure it in goals personally but I think track will have a decent influence for us this year, he is going to be a star 

[mo64 5,853]

4 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Today's style of football has actually conspired against Paddy.

The FF must still leave the goalsquare and run, that is not Paddy's strong suit.

Watch today's FF's, they cover more ground in a game than Plugger did in a season.

Forward pressure, zones etc, have changed the landscape.

If McCartin can get his body right, I think he's got greater agility than the likes of Tom Boyd and Patton. I didn't see the Geel/Freo game last week, but some were saying that Tom Hawkins looks like he's trimmed down, and covered a lot more ground than in the past. 

[Satyriconhome 10,743]

Trac is Trac, on field an arrogant bull of a player who will get better and better

Off field, a really nice guy who is excellent with sponsors and supporters, who gets ribbed mercilessly by the rest of the squad, Lewis on AFL360 showing just that

Edited April 1, 2017 by Satyriconhome

[whatwhat say what 22,722]

i remember prior to the draft i was speaking to a champion data employee who was also a saints supporter - he was 100% confident that they were going to pick trac as he was, clearly in his view, the best underage player they'd ever seen in terms of where his ratings sat, and his influence upon games.

he was shocked when it turns around to 'needs' rather than 'best available' and they picked mccartin.

Edited April 1, 2017 by DemonAndrew

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,495]

This is a well written and considered post (I'd hate to see some of the responses he received).

Hindsight of course is 20/20 and we should also be careful to jump the gun and claim victory in the 2014 draft.  Very early in both players careers and either one could succeed or fail from this early stage.

I can tell you though that at the time it started to leak to the media that the saints were taking McCartin, I didn't believe it.  Then, when it happened, I was equal parts shocked, equal parts ecstatic.

[Adam The God 30,157]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

Petracca has all the tools to be an elite player, but the great unknown is what role he'll play in the future. He could become a Gary Ablett, who started as an average half forward and developed into an elite midfielder. Or he could become a Jake Stringer, who despite winning an AA berth at a young age, I'm unconvinced that he'll ever reach elite level.

IMO, there's greater certainty of Oliver reaching elite levels than Petracca, even though Petracca has more natural ability.

I'm excited by Petracca's potential and Stringer may not be elite, but as he showed last night he's a gamebreaker. If Petracca gets to his level, we've got a good player on our hands. Petracca's ceiling is marginally higher, because his skills are better than Stringer's for mine.

Having said that, Oliver is comfortably ahead at this stage. 

Edited April 1, 2017 by A F

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

If Trac can have a day out a couple of times this year, in the way he did against Carlton in the pre-season, then I'll crow. Until then it's cameos and potential. Don't get me wrong - he has all the tools, and I have very high hopes for him, but he needs to show it for 4 q's regularly.

(Hoping tomorrow is the start of it!)

[Nasher 33,613]

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

This is the thing, with top five draft picks you don't just want a "good" player, you need someone special like Petracca and Oliver already are (hopefully Brayshaw follows suit).

I mentioned on here early in Toumpas' career that if that draft was done again I'd be surprised if he's get picked up at all, that is a monumental drafting mistake.

A top 5 draft pick improves your chances of getting a star by much less than you'd think.  History is absolutely littered with top 5 draft picks that aren't stars.  You *hope* you get one, but it's just as much pot luck as any other position in the draft.  

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,129]

17 minutes ago, Nasher said:

A top 5 draft pick improves your chances of getting a star by much less than you'd think.  History is absolutely littered with top 5 draft picks that aren't stars.  You *hope* you get one, but it's just as much pot luck as any other position in the draft.  

But how many of the games elite stars (father sons aside) come from outside the top 10? You are certainly more likely to find them early.

[Nasher 33,613]

3 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

But how many of the games elite stars (father sons aside) come from outside the top 10? You are certainly more likely to find them early.

Yes, the strike rate gets progressively worse as you go down the draft.  That has nothing to do with what I'm saying though, my argument was against the assertion that you need a special player with your top 5 pick (implication being that you should expect one) - history shows it doesn't work like that.  

[Diamond_Jim 12,555]

8 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

But how many of the games elite stars (father sons aside) come from outside the top 10? You are certainly more likely to find them early.

Have not had time to go through last year's All Australian list but the centre line of Hanneberry, Josh Kennedy and Rory Sloane are: Pick 30, Father son to Hawthorn and then traded to the Swans and pick 44 respectively.

I suppose you could also use the top 50 list but it seems that the draft is still a lottery

[Tony Tea 2,806]

4 hours ago, fndee said:

McCartin is a good mark but not as good as Hogan, Hogan has better hands,

Do you mean hands as in handball, gathering the ball or marking? I actually think McCartin has better marking hands, he's definitely a cleaner mark. Hogan, on the other hand, is often a two-grab mark. Even last week - every time he had the sit and took a mark, it was via two or three or four grabs.

However, Hogan puts a lot of body into a lot of his marks, which often leads to juggles, whereas most of McCartin's marks are via clear jumps at the ball.

[Sir Why You Little 37,010]

Happy with Tracc

the Aints can do as they please

Tracc will dominate games, probably some this year. 

McCartin is unfit. 

[mo64 5,853]

45 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

But how many of the games elite stars (father sons aside) come from outside the top 10? You are certainly more likely to find them early.

I think it's a case of most elite key forwards come from inside the top 10, elite mids less so and elite ruckmen never.

The term elite can be overused, and was discussed on radio this morning. Hutchy tried to say that Bont was elite, but Liam Pickering rightfully shot him down, by saying he's potentially elite. Pickering then went on to naming the players he thought were currently elite, and I think he was spot on:

Dangerfield, Selwood, Fyfe, Ablett, Franklin, Pendlebury, Rance, S. Mitchell, N. Reiwoldt

 

Edited April 1, 2017 by mo64