The Petracca v McCartin debate reprised

[Binmans PA 25,963]

I think what will propel us up the ladder sooner than was anticipated is if we can develop the Hannan types into B graders. 

As long as our Hogan's, Oliver's, Petracca's and Brayshaw's continue to improve every couple of games and begin to show consistency, the lower picks like Hunt and Hannan fill the holes we'd otherwise have in our bottom six.

Most people use the bottom 6 of a best 22 to decide the fate of a football team. Our current interchangable bottom 6 would be: ANB/Kent, Hannan/Kennedy/JKH, Frost/Smith/Garland, Weideman/Pedersen, Bugg/Vandenberg and White.

Now if ANB can provide Kent with decent competition for that half forward role our forwardline is immediately improved and harder to match up on.

If Hannan develops into a good player and JKH can show us something to put pressure on Hannan, that's another string for our forwardline. 

If Frost and Smith get a good run at the third defender role without injuries, our defence will look a lot stronger. 

If Weideman continues to develop and starts to clunk some of those marks, Hogan, Watts and Weideman are a tall and mobile set of key forwards who could get in top of most defences. 

So looking at the remaining guys from above, it means our bottom 3 or 4, particularly with injuries are still a worry. But with another trade/draft season or two, those holes should be filled.

If we can make our 2017 picks count and get lucky with a talented FA sometime in the next two years, we'll be superbly positioned in 2018-2019 to make an assault on the flag.

As PD says, Kelly would be the perfect addition to our midfield, although I worry about his hardness.

I'd like to see how Dion Johnstone develops, because he could also be the answer to our small forward problems.

But looking through this bottom 6 shows me that we really have assembled an exciting list.

[Binmans PA 25,963]

7 minutes ago, mo64 said:

I think it's a case of most elite key forwards come from inside the top, elite mids less so and elite ruckmen never.

The term elite can be overused, and was discussed on radio this morning. Hutchy tried to say that Bont was elite, but Liam Pickering rightfully shot him down, by saying he's potentially elite. Pickering then went on to naming the players he thought were currently elite, and I think he was spot on:

Dangerfield, Selwood, Fyfe, Ablett, Franklin, Pendlebury, Rance, S. Mitchell, N. Reiwoldt

 

The Bont is now elite IMO.

[Deeoldfart 7,719]

From where I sit on the outside, Tracc's 'attitude' seems to be exactly what's required from an emerging AFL star. He seems to have a fierce desire to succeed, both individually and as part of a team; he has the work ethic to match this desire, both on gameday and on the training track; he seems to have a positive approach to recovery (who will forget the video of his ACL rehab in the US?);  he seems very popular amongst his team mates and to enjoy their company; and he seems to be a good listener and learner (I'm loving the way he has become a team player first while still retaining his individuality ...... especially evident this season imo).  

Sorry about the 'ramble', but there are both good (Viney) and bad (Sylvia) 'attitudes'.  Tracc has the former!.

[Sir Why You Little 34,430]

1 minute ago, A F said:

The Bont is now elite IMO.

Yes he is certainly as elite as Rance is, who i think is universely over rated for mine

[Bay Riffin 1,413]

1 hour ago, DemonAndrew said:

i remember prior to the draft i was speaking to a champion data employee who was also a saints supporter - he was 100% confident that they were going to pick trac as he was, clearly in his view, the best underage player they'd ever seen in terms of where his ratings sat, and his influence upon games.

he was shocked when it turns around to 'needs' rather than 'best available' and they picked mccartin.

Roos didn't rate Petracca best in the draft. It was Heeney we bidded for with pick 2.

[Adzman 2,085]

Paddy could end up being an All Australian forward, but Petracca is next level. He has the same mystique about him that O'meara had before he had all of those injuries.

Paddy will be a very good player, Petracca could be something very special. 

[mo64 5,209]

1 hour ago, A F said:

The Bont is now elite IMO.

"Elite" should only apply to sustained greatness over several seasons. Having a great 12 months doesn't make you elite. The Bont has the potential to become elite.

[Binmans PA 25,963]

13 minutes ago, mo64 said:

"Elite" should only apply to sustained greatness over several seasons. Having a great 12 months doesn't make you elite. The Bont has the potential to become elite.

Agree to disagree then about Bont. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,412]

5 hours ago, Deestroy All said:

Age old debate of needs v best available. 

They went with needs. Not knowing that Bruce and Membry would come on as goalkickers. 

What they did know was that Petracca has all the talent in the world, and they knew what their midfield did and didn't have and what was developing. 

When I add all that up they made a mistake. They overrated their midfield. They could have Josh Kennedy at FF and it wouldn't help if the midfield can't get it to him.

Petracca is built for the modern game, I'm not so sure McCartin is. Saints would probably even be better off with Trac at FF. 

You always take best player available with early picks, draft for needs later/through rookie list.

They also took Billings over Bont

[Binmans PA 25,963]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

You always take best player available with early picks, draft for needs later/through rookie list.

They also took Billings over Bont

I just wonder whether their easy draw last year covered up a few cracks in their drafting. They're certainly well coached, but my question over them has always been their lack of midfield depth. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

1 hour ago, Adzman said:

Paddy will be a very good player, Petracca could be something very special. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he turns out being a not much better than Chris Dawes (albeit a better mark).

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

3 hours ago, Nasher said:

A top 5 draft pick improves your chances of getting a star by much less than you'd think.  History is absolutely littered with top 5 draft picks that aren't stars.  You *hope* you get one, but it's just as much pot luck as any other position in the draft.  

From every draft there probably is five players that become stars (2003 might be the exception here).

This is why I love the Oliver selection so much, in years gone by we would have just taken Parish (who is no Toumpas), but wouldn't have been able to identify genuine freakish talent in Oliver who was outside the square.

[Deestroy All 14,261]

I'm in the Bont is elite camp. Pretty much everything he does is to the Bulldogs advantage. You don't need 30 possessions a game to be elite. 

[Binmans PA 25,963]

14 minutes ago, Deestroy All said:

I'm in the Bont is elite camp. Pretty much everything he does is to the Bulldogs advantage. You don't need 30 possessions a game to be elite. 

I'm slow to the party, but his finals series last year swayed me and he's started beautifully this year.

[Dante 2,562]

Petracca seems to get better with every game he plays and I'd expect him to dominate games in a couple of years. Where can he play, anywhere, he will be a midfielder eventually and when he matures a bit more he will be able to play back or forward as well.

He has the skill, strength and self belief to become an A grade player in a short period of time.

 

[Moonshadow 16,157]

I've always liked the motto "draft for talent, trade for need". There can sometimes be a fine line between talent and need, but I reckon Gus and Trac were the best of both that year (so far anyway).

Edited April 1, 2017 by Moonshadow

[Binmans PA 25,963]

8 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

I've always liked the motto "draft for talent, trade for need". There's a fine line between the talent and need, but I reckon Gus and Trac were the best of both that year (so far anyway).

I want Gus to really lift his game this year. He's fallen behind a little bit.

[Moonshadow 16,157]

1 minute ago, A F said:

I want Gus to really lift his game this year. He's fallen behind a little bit.

I agree. His first year was a cracker. He seems to be lifting this year, so here's hoping for an injury free 22 games with no concussion 

[DubDee 20,519]

It's still not as funny as taking Martin over hogan

[Dwight Schrute 16,747]

13 minutes ago, A F said:

I want Gus to really lift his game this year. He's fallen behind a little bit.

I think gus plays less midfield minutes which doesn't help his possession count but he still clearly has the same class, very confident he's tracking along well

[Binmans PA 25,963]

6 minutes ago, Abe said:

I think gus plays less midfield minutes which doesn't help his possession count but he still clearly has the same class, very confident he's tracking along well

He seems to be playing high half forward as you say and historically he's struggled there a little bit, but seems to have some intensity in this position this year. I'm hoping he gets some midfield minutes soon. He was dominant for a period against the Saints last year when playing in the guts.

[faultydet 7,593]

8 hours ago, mo64 said:

Petracca has all the tools to be an elite player, but the great unknown is what role he'll play in the future. He could become a Gary Ablett, who started as an average half forward and developed into an elite midfielder. Or he could become a Jake Stringer, who despite winning an AA berth at a young age, I'm unconvinced that he'll ever reach elite level.

IMO, there's greater certainty of Oliver reaching elite levels than Petracca, even though Petracca has more natural ability.

I'm not so sure about that.

Take a very very close look at Oliver every single time he is near the ball. He already does things that are so fast, the commentators dont have time to mention his possession before it has found its way to a team mate who had no right to receive the ball.

For all the hype about 'Trac, I honestly think some of our supporters haven't quite realised the AFL top 10 talent we have on our hands with Oliver. 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

8 hours ago, mo64 said:

Some people are getting way ahead of themselves with their assessment of what Petracca has done to date. He's hardly been an instant star like Judd and Selwood. At this stage, he's provided some cameos without ever being a top 3 player in any game. 

McCartin has shown a fair bit, but injuries have cruelled him. He's still a developing key forward who needs to get his body right, so any comparison with Petracca to date is pointless. On pure talent, Petracca has a higher ceiling, but only time will tell as to who has the greater impact at AFL level. 

If you want to crystal ball, I'd see McCartin as a future Josh Kennedy (WCE) and Petracca as a future Jake Stringer. 

If we didn't get Weideman, I would say it's a 50/50 call as to who I'd prefer long term.

 

Petracca over McCartin is a no brainer.

We got seriously lucky here.

 

[pineapple dee 2,892]

6 hours ago, Bay Riffin said:

Roos didn't rate Petracca best in the draft. It was Heeney we bidded for with pick 2.

Roos would have been rapt to get Heeney but our bid on Heeney was an ambit claim and Roos knew that the swans were always  going to match the bid. Our interest was in Petracca in that draft.

[Binmans PA 25,963]

5 hours ago, faultydet said:

I'm not so sure about that.

Take a very very close look at Oliver every single time he is near the ball. He already does things that are so fast, the commentators dont have time to mention his possession before it has found its way to a team mate who had no right to receive the ball.

For all the hype about 'Trac, I honestly think some of our supporters haven't quite realised the AFL top 10 talent we have on our hands with Oliver.

I think some are certainly catching on. If Oliver turns it on again tomorrow, there'll be no hiding it.