My cat reckons this is a certainty...I can tell by the way it moves its paws.

I have just have an epiphany! And seance all in one!! Plus Mrs. Fence wants to play on my Bongo's...

Lewis to Dees

Rockliff to dees

Hibberd to Dees

WEEEEEEELCOME FINALS 2017 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Edited October 15, 20168 yr by picket fence

17 minutes ago, Abe said:

I completely understand where you're coming from mate, if this decision is based on form alone he's worth a good pick, 2nd in the B&F of a top 3 side is pretty handy, i guess the biggest concern being how long can he keep playing for

I will stick my neck out for a known A grade elite player to a point where I believe we can get 3 elite years out of him.  I probably should have stated that from the get-go and believe me when I say he is one of my favourite players outside of any player at our club.  My Hawk mates do not want to lose him.  They love the bloke.

He'll be an enormous boost to our club if we can get him and my hope is that we do get him.  If we have to pay a bit overs, that's perfectly fine with me.  We need more good/top players - we've got about 6-8 and our youngsters can advance of course.  12-14 top players delivers us a top 4 spot.  Lewis becomes one more as part of that equation.

18 minutes ago, Nasher said:

 

We're pretty much arguing the same point mate, but reaching a different conclusion.  This the beauty of this stuff!

Like I said - third round draft pick is a 0-10 year player.  Lewis is a 1-3 year player.  For the pick, the question is over quality, for Lewis it's over longevity.  The risks are comparable IMO, but I'll agree to disagree as you weight them differently.

Treloar is a 8-10 year player of high quality- the most valuable of the three by a long shot.  

BTW, In general I've always shared your view that supporters and club vastly overrate draft picks, especially earlier ones.  I did an on the back of an envelope type look once and the chances of picking a complete dud in the top 20 was about 50% - astronomically high.  I think my thinking in this case leads me to believe that perhaps the footy in public underrates the value of late picks (third round and beyond) though.  I've never done the study, but it wouldn't surprise me if the probably of getting a decent player in the third round was comparable to getting one in the first or second round.

I follow all the big 4 American sports and the history of drafting over there somewhat mirrors how it is here.  Busts everywhere and super-elite players like Tom Brady get drafted at pick 199. 

NBA is the same - busts everywhere in the first round ... baseball and Ice Hockey draft players at a young age but the expectations are nowhere near the levels as it is in footy here.  

32 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Ethan that sounds plausible but your recent revelation regarding your personal habits was so disturbing that I'm actually at a loss as to how to consider your opinion! I can't call on Biffen to assist me because one of the huns has banned him. I am clearly in beyond my depth!!

Perhaps not out of your depth, but temporarily out of tune?

28 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Hello everyone, I caught up with Lewis today and asked him the question that everyone wants answered.

Your head is HUGE. 

22 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Well then nothing's sure Teddy, as you know the sun doesn't come up, the Earth turns to make it visible.

Suppose that means we will do no trades at all.

In fairness, the term is "sun rise", not "earth turn"

Why does every thread on 'Land end up with BBO talking about pulling himself? It gets quite tiresome.

It's getting around twitter now that Lewis is going for a third round pick. Now we know twitter is a place for trolls but this is a lot of trolls. 

32 minutes ago, Dee-licious said:

It's getting around twitter now that Lewis is going for a third round pick. Now we know twitter is a place for trolls but this is a lot of trolls. 

Birds of a feather....chinese whispers...  probably started by Hawthorn themselves to up the ante.

Stay strong Dees...deal with this as YOU want to......not them....go you good club.

The weekend could not have come at a worse time. It allows for an extended re-thinking time for Lewis who may reflect on just how good the green grass has been at Hawthorn, and decide to stay. The longer the time lapse on Monday befofe we hear a decision, the more likley he is to be staying at the Hawks. 

2 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

The weekend could not have come at a worse time. It allows for an extended re-thinking time for Lewis who may reflect on just how good the green grass has been at Hawthorn, and decide to stay. The longer the time lapse on Monday befofe we hear a decision, the more likley he is to be staying at the Hawks. 

Or the die has been firmly set already.

Either is possible and indeed plausible. We'll know Monday lunchtime I reckon.

8 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

The weekend could not have come at a worse time. It allows for an extended re-thinking time for Lewis who may reflect on just how good the green grass has been at Hawthorn, and decide to stay. The longer the time lapse on Monday befofe we hear a decision, the more likley he is to be staying at the Hawks. 

It also gives him a couple of extra days on the sauce to ponder how a club he has served so valiantly for many years can shaft him for a couple of upstarts who have achieved little in the game.

2 minutes ago, Cards13 said:

He also said Lewis in contracted to the Hawks and it is likely he will be a Hawk next year. 

He said Likely not definitely. 

Read between the lines 

10 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

The weekend could not have come at a worse time. It allows for an extended re-thinking time for Lewis who may reflect on just how good the green grass has been at Hawthorn, and decide to stay. The longer the time lapse on Monday befofe we hear a decision, the more likley he is to be staying at the Hawks. 

Sounds more like he will leave I struggle to see how a weekend will change his mind if Hawthorn were so desperate to keep him you would think they would be trying hell for leather trying to convince him to stay?

 

 

 

 

 

Who's Craig Little?

2 hours ago, Macca said:

I will stick my neck out for a known A grade elite player to a point where I believe we can get 3 elite years out of him.  I probably should have stated that from the get-go and believe me when I say he is one of my favourite players outside of any player at our club.  My Hawk mates do not want to lose him.  They love the bloke.

He'll be an enormous boost to our club if we can get him and my hope is that we do get him.  If we have to pay a bit overs, that's perfectly fine with me.  We need more good/top players - we've got about 6-8 and our youngsters can advance of course.  12-14 top players delivers us a top 4 spot.  Lewis becomes one more as part of that equation.

I follow all the big 4 American sports and the history of drafting over there somewhat mirrors how it is here.  Busts everywhere and super-elite players like Tom Brady get drafted at pick 199. 

NBA is the same - busts everywhere in the first round ... baseball and Ice Hockey draft players at a young age but the expectations are nowhere near the levels as it is in footy here.  

You've got something to offer but ...

War and Peace. TL;DR. Every post.

See Blaise Pascal.

I had to go out for a few hours.

Have we bagged and tagged this one yet?

 

55 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

You've got something to offer

Thanks ... you're too kind.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Maldonboy38 said:

The weekend could not have come at a worse time. It allows for an extended re-thinking time for Lewis who may reflect on just how good the green grass has been at Hawthorn, and decide to stay. The longer the time lapse on Monday befofe we hear a decision, the more likley he is to be staying at the Hawks. 

No way! He'll be turning things over in his mind all weekend. Things like:

"Me and Sam were the only contested ball guys. Who's going to do it now? Do they expect me to take the whole load? Or is Clarko going to revamp the game plan again, to take even more emphasis off contested ball?

"Or do they expect me to just start from scratch working with this other Mitchell (who's nowhere near as good as Sam) plus a guy who's not played for two years? And with a whole lot less pay than either of them? It's like I'm having to teach them to take my place while on half their pay! If I'm going to have to start from scratch with different mids, I'm better off to do it with that team that smashed us in contested ball. And for a reasonable wage!

"And what if I stay and it doesn't work out with Mitchell-2 and the other guy? Clarko won't dump them, that's for sure! So I'm stuffed.

"But what if it DOES work out well? Clarko will just say, "Well, Lewy, these guys are going great!! I guess we don't need you now!" So I'm stuffed after next year, however it goes! There's actually no upside in staying!

"What about me with the Dees and their young midfield? If it goes well, they'll want me to stay for another couple of years for sure. And if it doesn't work, they'll still want me to hang around to help them improve. Either way, I can't lose!

"So what's it like for Crossy? He's still highly respected at the Dogs, and now he's highly respected at two clubs, so that's likely to happen to me (and to Sam, come to think of it). And he's preferred to stay on here, rather than go back to the Dogs, even though they've just won the big one. Crossy's not a fool!"

Not a difficult decision, the more he thinks about it. It's cold hard logic, not anger, that will push him to make the move. It's anti-logical for him to stay at Hawks. 

3 hours ago, Maldonboy38 said:

The weekend could not have come at a worse time. It allows for an extended re-thinking time for Lewis who may reflect on just how good the green grass has been at Hawthorn, and decide to stay. The longer the time lapse on Monday befofe we hear a decision, the more likley he is to be staying at the Hawks. 

I dare say, us Demonlanders are  stewing over this probably more than Lewis himself over this weekend.

MELBOURNE 26, 44, 62, 80.

26 will go on the Hibberd trade.

80 for Lewis, I'd definetaly take. Runner up in this years B&F, shows he's still playing well, and I think he could teach our young midfield a bit. 3 year deal with provisions on the last 2, possible coaching job etc.

62 for Lewis, I'd still probably take this deal. 

44 for Lewis, I'm not keen on this deal. I'd rather poach him after next season, be cheaper for us. 2 year deal, possible move into coaching.

25 minutes ago, Males said:

MELBOURNE 26, 44, 62, 80.

26 will go on the Hibberd trade.

80 for Lewis, I'd definetaly take. Runner up in this years B&F, shows he's still playing well, and I think he could teach our young midfield a bit. 3 year deal with provisions on the last 2, possible coaching job etc.

62 for Lewis, I'd still probably take this deal. 

44 for Lewis, I'm not keen on this deal. I'd rather poach him after next season, be cheaper for us. 2 year deal, possible move into coaching.

With 80 Lewis could be texting Mitchell and Hodge that he finish runner up, but was still worth more than Sam.

1 hour ago, Males said:

44 for Lewis, I'm not keen on this deal.

It's okay, you have all weekend to get used to it. 

I'm pretty confident that is what the deal will be.

So if Lewis comes, will Frawley want to return?

8 hours ago, ILLDieADemon said:

He said Likely not definitely. 

Read between the lines 

You can try to read between the lines all you like, the outcome may be different to the amazing story you concoct in your own head. 

Here is hoping he is a Dee who helps us get closer to/to a flag.