a time to deal

[picket fence 18,040]

The prophets of doom often have the satisfaction of being vindicated - most items in any category of things turn out to be average - it's the statistical bell curve. Isn't the average AFL career around 5 years? So that on the law of averages Watts has done ok so far. Number one draft pick? Everybody thought so at the time; surely time to let that one go. The real question surely is whether or not we will ever get a regular match-winner out of his mix of skills/deficiencies. the impatient anti-Watts crowd are making a lot of noise - but will history prove them right?

Here's my couple of thoughts:

1. Talk about Watts being tough and playing aggressively, even thumping someone, is "begging the question" in that it offers as grounds for dumping him the fact that he isn't the sort of player that he isn't. It amounts to the question "Is a soft player worth anything?" being answered with "no, because he's soft." Robbie Flower wasn't one to hit anyone. Lots of good players aren't. It is at least theoretically possible that a team can have a "soft" player who is still worth a game. Whether Watts is one of them - well, that's the question.

So, what criteria can we think of (other than hitting people, bashing and crashing) that might be grounds for valuing his contribution - when his value is not going to be in terms of "toughness"? What KPI's can we come up with for a player like Watts?

I'd suggest we could look at, for example, things like efficient disposals compared to possessions lost due to his alleged softness; or examples of possession retained through his exceptional skills where we might well have lost possession had a less silky player had the use of the ball - the sort of break-the-game-open things that a Robbie Flower did used to do. The impact of his involvements on momentum in the game. And maybe also we might consider excusing his failing to win or retain possession if tougher players left him unsupported... I'd suggest this is not special pleading, but really just like saying Jetta cannot be expected to outmark Buddy, and so criticising him for failing to do so is just ignoring a fact.

No doubt Roos has his ideas of what to factor into his assessment of Watts, weighing whether his skills outweigh his deficiencies. It seems to me that on Demonland we keep hearing frustrated voices shouting here that Watts has deficiencies - and from my point of view those ventings of frustration must not be taken as the whole of the story... Jetta (or anybody) can still be a good player despite there being things he cannot do. Ditto Watts.

2. We are clearly still trying to work out how to use Watts. Garry Lyon offered his thoughts, and Roos is apparently still trying to nut it out. We have a player with these wonderful skills, but cannot get them into play often enough. For many of us his shortcomings keep obscuring the picture of what he brings to the team. I say there is a need - on here, at Demonland - for a more carefully weighed evaluation of what Watts offers.

It reminds me of Churchill, the First Lord of the Admiralty who dreamed up that absolute lunacy the Allied attack on Gallipoli in 1915. In fact, everything he did in politics was a fiasco until he became Prime Minister, replacing the insipid Chamberlain in the desperate days of the Blitz, and then Churchill eventually astonished his critics by becoming unmistakably the greatest of all British Prime Ministers. They finally had him in the job where his excellences were exactly what was needed; and his undoubted peculiarities and poor judgment simply didn't matter. Or Abraham Lincoln - a loose cannon personally and no fiscal manager, took the country through a most destructive civil war, but he abolished slavery. Great things can be done by people with great talents, despite their very-evident failings - if you can put them into the position to use their skills. If the times call for those particular skills.

Remember Norm Smith taking his old mate's boy who couldn't quite cut it, and creating the new ruck-rover position for him. Barassi had some excellences and some shortcomings - but the right fit unleashed all his good points and he became a superstar. Until we really have worked out where Watts ought to be played to maximise his undoubted skills, and to minimise the effect of his weaknesses, we haven't made use of him properly; and we won't really know. While there is no clarity about his proper role - and I think it is clear enough that there isn't yet - I think we have to hold back from passing judgment.

It is fascinating watching. Tantalising, seeing his first game last year, his first game this year - and then having him not kick on. Of course we'd like to see him grow stronger, with a more obviously competitive nature. But meantime, there are star qualities in there! All the Watts-hating on here is disappointing, because it ignores the real issue. What I want to see is the right fit; then and only then will we be able to gauge his value.

Until Roos gives him a settled position, and then either lets him and his team-mates grow into his playing that position, or else discards him as a failure in that position - I'd prefer to wait. I think I trust Roos to get it right in the end. Meantime I'm disappointed repeatedly, but still live in hope. Loving it when Watts deservedly gets named in the best. I still think that on skill - vision, hands, kicking, coolness - he is an outstanding talent. Such an amiable and patient person too - I wish it was easier to have the same qualities when watching him play for us!

A lot of your analysis re Watts is true BUT Robbie always went when his turn! ALWAYS! That's why he was a Champion!

Edited April 19, 2015 by picket fence

[robbiefrom13 894]

his role is to do what is best for the team, at the time.

If he is the closest player to the ball, or the closest player to the opponent who has the ball, his job is to try to get the ball, or stop that opponent from using the ball.

Can't argue. But he continues to get picked. What are we missing? I'm suggesting there must be something else to take into account.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Can't argue. But he continues to get picked. What are we missing? I'm suggesting there must be something else to take into account.

maybe they think he'll sook or bludge at a lower level.

I've heard it said before, that he'll learn more at the senior level, footy-smarts wise & with the intensity.... but he's not growing his intensity at any contests ???

I think if I were playing out there with him, I'd run over the top of him thru impatience, to get to the ball he won't.

he makes me mad that he will not try physically.

[mo64 5,886]

Can't argue. But he continues to get picked. What are we missing? I'm suggesting there must be something else to take into account.

It's a reflection of our lack of depth. As he showed against GC, Watts can have an influence on a game that those who played at Casey today cannot.

Watts' strikes me as the type who thinks he can switch on and off during a game. At training he comes across as Mr Nice Guy, happy to have a chat with supporters during breaks, great with the kids and has a laugh with his teammates on the ground. You'd never see the likes of T. Mac, Cross, Viney or Jones doing that. Even Bernie Vince, who comes across as a knockabout bloke, was focussed when running laps during rehab and not distracted by fans over the fence. Watts needs to start training the way he's meant to play, and have some steel and presence about him.

I know that Geelong and Sydney had sessions conducted by Leading Teams, where the players could make brutal analysis of their teammates. Wondering if we've had the same.

[robbiefrom13 894]

maybe they think he'll sook or bludge at a lower level.

I've heard it said before, that he'll learn more at the senior level, footy-smarts wise & with the intensity.... but he's not growing his intensity at any contests ???

I think if I were playing out there with him, I'd run over the top of him thru impatience, to get to the ball he won't.

he makes me mad that he will not try physically.

hmm. Don't go mad, dee-luded.

If you were playing out there with him, I'd venture to suggest you'd get dragged, quick smart!

Reminds me of Keating, who would look indolent and unperturbed. You should read Don Watson on the Redfern speech. Drove people up the wall, but I think history is going to rate Keating fairly well. Contrast with the hyper-active onionman...

Sherlock Holmes appeared indolent. Thinkers can, and so too can those who appear to have all the time in the world, just because they read the situation so much quicker. Watts goes sometimes, and sometimes when he doesn't it may well be that he could see not to. Like a batsman shouldering arms at a widish ball - the better he is the finer he can judge it. All I'm saying is, if Roos was driven up the wall by Watts he would not be playing him. If we are of a different mind to Roos, surely we should be asking what it is that we are missing...

And whatever else Roos might be thinking, he's certainly NOT being motivated by a desire to spare Casey the frustration!

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

i'd be more interested in going after Paul Walker from the cats

[Demon trucker 1,800]

Watts did not play as bad as most are carrying on about, he did have their best defender on him an all Australian in the wet, he did create a contest when he was three on one, which resulted in a goal for hogan, hell most talls don't have much impact in the wet, we lost today because our best small forward kick 2.4 just say he kick 5.1 it would have been a different result.

[monoccular 17,680]

You left out a few who should go:

Spencer

Fitzpatrick

Riley

King

Tehrlich

Matt Jones

Neal-Bullen

Harmes

Hunt

White

Jamar will retire

are you serious? Neal-Bullen? White? Hunt & Harmes, just maybe, if you actually saw a lot of them at Casey and could make that judgement. But NB & White haven't been seen in action by anybody so how can you condemn them already?

[dee-luded 2,959]

hmm. Don't go mad, dee-luded.

If you were playing out there with him, I'd venture to suggest you'd get dragged, quick smart!

Reminds me of Keating, who would look indolent and unperturbed. You should read Don Watson on the Redfern speech. Drove people up the wall, but I think history is going to rate Keating fairly well. Contrast with the hyper-active onionman...

Sherlock Holmes appeared indolent. Thinkers can, and so too can those who appear to have all the time in the world, just because they read the situation so much quicker. Watts goes sometimes, and sometimes when he doesn't it may well be that he could see not to. Like a batsman shouldering arms at a widish ball - the better he is the finer he can judge it. All I'm saying is, if Roos was driven up the wall by Watts he would not be playing him. If we are of a different mind to Roos, surely we should be asking what it is that we are missing...

And whatever else Roos might be thinking, he's certainly NOT being motivated by a desire to spare Casey the frustration!

I think Roos is in a corner re watts. the bad development of him early, against what to do with him now, as the alternatives aren't many. I think if we had stand up starts for the tall flanker 3rd tall types, then watts may very well be at Casey.

disposal skills are thin on the Mfc grounds, & watts has these, & vision, but not much composure under fire.

at the moment Roos's hands are tied imo. so patience is his only virtue avail.

wattsy is clever, but he's also too clever by half. it will come back to bite him when others take his spot, & he's left behind, without having developed his broad based game style.

wattsy will be passed, by efforts of others.

[robbiefrom13 894]

I think Roos is in a corner re watts. the bad development of him early, against what to do with him now, as the alternatives aren't many. I think if we had stand up starts for the tall flanker 3rd tall types, then watts may very well be at Casey.

disposal skills are thin on the Mfc grounds, & watts has these, & vision, but not much composure under fire.

at the moment Roos's hands are tied imo. so patience is his only virtue avail.

wattsy is clever, but he's also too clever by half. it will come back to bite him when others take his spot, & he's left behind, without having developed his broad based game style.

wattsy will be passed, by efforts of others.

Likely enough these are all good points, I think; maybe it is exactly as you see it - except that I can also see him on all fours in a pack, cool and firing out a superb handball to someone going past. Second and third efforts on the ground in the middle of a pack. Seen it more than once. TV especially has shown that part of his repertoire. In such situations, his composure is outstanding.

I think his real difficulty is when he can't see team-mates around him. Needs to be part of the whole. I believe interviews he's given support this reading.

So I still hold out hope - in a well functioning team, he could be a world-beater.

[Wunders 397]

Watts did not play as bad as most are carrying on about, he did have their best defender on him an all Australian in the wet, he did create a contest when he was three on one, which resulted in a goal for hogan, hell most talls don't have much impact in the wet, we lost today because our best small forward kick 2.4 just say he kick 5.1 it would have been a different result.

Even that 2v1 effort to get the ball to Hogan for a goal on reflection was a little disappointing. He jumped and in mid air turned his body to protect himself without ever trying to mark the ball (watch the replay like i did yesterday - even the commentators pointed it out).. It was luck that it bounced up into his lap afterwards.. I want him jumping aggressively into that contest when he is in a good position like that and putting his hands up. It just looks soft (which we all know he is).

Big game this week (hopefully its dry)! Go dees

[Left Field 313]

I'm a big supporter but I'd be staggered if Watts is picked next week. Roos isn't going to put up with lapses in concentration and intensity. Garlett also let his team mates down badly with his poor set shot kicking.

To the OP though, eveyrone should be tradeable for the right deal (Watts included). But if he keeps spacing out mid game like he did again on the weekend, I don't think he'll be much more than steak knives next trade period.

And @Kali, who want Neal Bullen traded before playing a game, go pick up your toys and put them back in your cot, you peanut.

[Undeeterred 3,127]

Even that 2v1 effort to get the ball to Hogan for a goal on reflection was a little disappointing. He jumped and in mid air turned his body to protect himself without ever trying to mark the ball (watch the replay like i did yesterday - even the commentators pointed it out).. It was luck that it bounced up into his lap afterwards.. I want him jumping aggressively into that contest when he is in a good position like that and putting his hands up. It just looks soft (which we all know he is).

Big game this week (hopefully its dry)! Go dees

I think we all need to stop demanding that Watts be something he's not, and start celebrating the fact that he is smart enough to ride out a contest he's not going to win, then has the presence of mind to whip it off a guy running past into an open goal.

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

Decision making is something that Jack Watts has that a lot of our list does not have, admittedly I am a big fan of his skill set, work rate and ability to influence games with very few disposals. The fact that he made a couple of poor errors when dropping uncontested marks does not put him as worst on for the day.

Jack Watts has a few things that alot of our team does not have which is why he is a vital cog in our list, will he be traded, possibly as Roos will take any offer that is benefitial, but do I think he will be traded, very unlikely as he is definitely in our best 22 and in our top 5 most important players for the next 5 years.

[mo64 5,886]

Decision making is something that Jack Watts has that a lot of our list does not have, admittedly I am a big fan of his skill set, work rate and ability to influence games with very few disposals. The fact that he made a couple of poor errors when dropping uncontested marks does not put him as worst on for the day.

Jack Watts has a few things that alot of our team does not have which is why he is a vital cog in our list, will he be traded, possibly as Roos will take any offer that is benefitial, but do I think he will be traded, very unlikely as he is definitely in our best 22 and in our top 5 most important players for the next 5 years.

It does when those errors are so blatent and change the momentum of the game.

[hardtack 10,927]

It's a reflection of our lack of depth. As he showed against GC, Watts can have an influence on a game that those who played at Casey today cannot.

Watts' strikes me as the type who thinks he can switch on and off during a game. At training he comes across as Mr Nice Guy, happy to have a chat with supporters during breaks, great with the kids and has a laugh with his teammates on the ground. You'd never see the likes of T. Mac, Cross, Viney or Jones doing that. Even Bernie Vince, who comes across as a knockabout bloke, was focussed when running laps during rehab and not distracted by fans over the fence. Watts needs to start training the way he's meant to play, and have some steel and presence about him.

I know that Geelong and Sydney had sessions conducted by Leading Teams, where the players could make brutal analysis of their teammates. Wondering if we've had the same.

I'm pretty certain that I heard/read that Roos was a big proponent of Leading Teams while at the Swans and that he had them in at some point early in his tenure with the MFC.

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

It does when those errors are so blatent and change the momentum of the game.

Correct, but also does missed opportunities in front of goals, especially ones that should have been kicked.

What he offers that not much else do is a consistently high workrate despite very few bench minutes, playing as a high half forward is a tough role and we do not have anyone who can replace him in this position in my opinion.

[Little Goffy 14,783]

Kruezer is simply untouchable for any but garage sale price.

With all due respect to him, we can't be trading in players who come with permanent clips on their shins, for ease of attaching moon-boots.

Henderson would at this time appear to be about a fair trade in terms of quality, but Carlton have a desperate shortage of competent key position players, forward and back. They'd have to be totally Malthouse to trade him out.

Yarran is an interesting one. His best is superb, Carlton definitely rate him highly (even those who will be there after the mid-season break), but he does have consistency issues. we also have some kids running around who may well cover his role in the near future anyway.

I'm not sure any of those options would be likely to give us a suitable exchange for Watts.

That, and personally I don't believe in trading out players who are at least AFL-level. Even if they sometimes create memorable forehead-slapping, chair-bashing moments.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Likely enough these are all good points, I think; maybe it is exactly as you see it - except that I can also see him on all fours in a pack, cool and firing out a superb handball to someone going past. Second and third efforts on the ground in the middle of a pack. Seen it more than once. TV especially has shown that part of his repertoire. In such situations, his composure is outstanding.

I think his real difficulty is when he can't see team-mates around him. Needs to be part of the whole. I believe interviews he's given support this reading.

So I still hold out hope - in a well functioning team, he could be a world-beater.

I do hope he comes good, but just excepting ducking the head type dropped marks isn't on. they all have one now & again but we cannot tolerate this being a habit.

wattsy must start to show some anzac style courage.... get hurt or not, he has to show he's willing for the jumper, for his mates.

Edited April 20, 2015 by dee-luded