Which Clubs will Fall?

[Dommygun12 79]

Didn't even get a nibble in the pass mark thread so I thought id make it a topic so as much as we need to improve im interested to see on who thinks which clubs are going to slip down the ladder and why as it generally needs to happen for anyone to move back up

I cant see st kilda coming up even 1 spot bulldogs I think will suffer losing griffin and now libba for a year got a sneaking suspicion but not alot west coast with cox departure thoughts?

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Essendon - No need for explanation

Carlton - Need a rebuild, Madhouse is not the man to do it. Also lost that superstar Garlett.

Saints - Can't see them improving

Bulldogs - Losing Cooney, Cross and Griffen and a coach in the last few years is reminiscent of Melbourne. Culture problems. Libba doing his knee wont help either.

Collingwood - Lost 2 of the top 4 from last years b&f. Players don't like Buckley.

Richmond - fell into the finals last year and haven't improved their list

Geelong - Ageing list. Mitch Clarks calves wont stand up.

Freo - Coach is massively overrated. Ageing stars. Will slide

North- Waite could be a good inclusion but their draw is much more difficult this season than last. Could be a surprise slider.

[Demon 16 198]

I think we will win more games but not necessarily move to far up the ladder this year unfortunately. Most teams are on the improve.

St Kilda will bring up the rear again, and Carlton will struggle I think - cant understand why they aren't prepared to accept fait and rebuild.

Agree with the OP that the Bulldogs are going to take some short term pain for long term gain, but they arent in a bad position. When Boyd comes good and Libba returns, they have some serious young talent on their list and only really need to improve their defense significantly.

Of the other teams in the bottom part of the table, Brisbane, GWS and Gold Coast will all improve dramatically I think.

Collingwood and Adelaide will probably stay steady, and West Coast might drop a couple of places - but not far enough for us to travel past them yet.

[S.R.J 418]

We will still be a bottom 4 club, but will show improvement.

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

I will be disappointed if we finish bottom 4, I think we are poised to surprise the competition this year!

Then again, I thought that the last couple of years, so what the hell do I know?

[Ted Lasso 18,786]

Carlton..

[Sir Why You Little 36,668]

We will still be a bottom 4 club, but will show improvement.

Finishing in the bottom 4 is a failed year.

[Brayshaw Self 847]

West Coast, Saints, Carlton, Bulldogs bottom 4.

Dees, Pies, GWS, Brisbane 11-14.

[KingDingAling 3,740]

Carlton, they are just an average side with some less than average players.

I think Richmond will be a flop aswell, they are talking finals, I don't think they will make the finals, to me that is a fail for them.

St Kilda will be bottom 2, they haven't bottomed out yet, they still have some ways to go, I'd have them bottom 2 for the next 2 years at least.

I don't think it will be a good time to be down the bottom from here on in, just as we are seeing the same sides play off in the top 4, we'll also start to see those down the bottom of the ladder - stay there. I think MFC will avoid this due to a raft of young talent on our list, rebuilding sides can only dream of having a young brigade like the MFC.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,652]

I expect Richmond to drop significantly. They have little depth and have relied enormously on Ivan Maric for the last few years. With Maric aging, Deledio having to "manage" an injury (achilles, I think) and only a few genuinely good players (although those few are very good) I can see Richmond finishing in the bottom four.

The other team I suspect will go backwards is Carlton. With Mick Malthouse there, I don't think the squad is particularly good and there is a sense of back of house disharmony.

Edited to make clear that the team is called Carlton, not "Mick Malthouse"

Edited March 2, 2015 by La Dee-vina Comedia

[Little Goffy 14,027]

I don't think I'd want to be trapped into making detailed predictions, but there are a lot of clubs which are looking a bit brittle, like a few key losses and a bit of a slump could turn into a whole dud season.

Carlton - Brittle, brittle, brittle. Serious depth issues and their stars aren't quite stars.

Richmond - Basically the same as Carlton (which I love saying because it would annoy them both so much)

Essendon - Well, hmm.

Bulldogs - Losing Liberatore is a big deal, coming on the back of a 'complex' pre-season. With their midfield thinned out, their key position shallowness becomes even more of a problem.

Saints - Were being carried (to the extent they moved at all) by their veterans. Still being carried by their veterans. Fragile situation.

Collingwood - I expect them to fade to sustained ordinary. Vulnerable due to arrogance and the pressure from perceptions of disharmony.

Adelaide, Gold Coast, and Brisbane I think will stay solid or improve.

Western Sydney is a mystery. Clearly the determinant of their success is not talent or anything tangible, they have all of that.

[old dee 23,503]

I will be disappointed if we finish bottom 4, I think we are poised to surprise the competition this year!

Then again, I thought that the last couple of years, so what the hell do I know?

I will be disappointed if we finish bottom 4, I think we are poised to surprise the competition this year!

Then again, I thought that the last couple of years, so what the hell do I know?

Finishing in the bottom 4 is a failed year.

Then prepare thy self.

We have made a number of changes but we will still be in the bottom four come years end.

[dazzledavey36 52,884]

I too think we will be bottom 4

[old dee 23,503]

Essendon if they have players suspended

The Dogs a place or two

Carlton to 16th

Freo to Eighth

Geelong to ninth.

[jnrmac 19,905]

Essendon - No need for explanation

Carlton - Need a rebuild, Madhouse is not the man to do it. Also lost that superstar Garlett.

Saints - Can't see them improving

Bulldogs - Losing Cooney, Cross and Griffen and a coach in the last few years is reminiscent of Melbourne. Culture problems. Libba doing his knee wont help either.

Collingwood - Lost 2 of the top 4 from last years b&f. Players don't like Buckley.

Richmond - fell into the finals last year and haven't improved their list

Geelong - Ageing list. Mitch Clarks calves wont stand up.

Freo - Coach is massively overrated. Ageing stars. Will slide

North- Waite could be a good inclusion but their draw is much more difficult this season than last. Could be a surprise slider.

Good summary

[george_on_the_outer 7,434]

Essendon - No need for explanation

Carlton - Need a rebuild, Madhouse is not the man to do it. Also lost that superstar Garlett.

Saints - Can't see them improving

Bulldogs - Losing Cooney, Cross and Griffen and a coach in the last few years is reminiscent of Melbourne. Culture problems. Libba doing his knee wont help either.

Collingwood - Lost 2 of the top 4 from last years b&f. Players don't like Buckley.

Richmond - fell into the finals last year and haven't improved their list

Geelong - Ageing list. Mitch Clarks calves wont stand up.

Freo - Coach is massively overrated. Ageing stars. Will slide

North- Waite could be a good inclusion but their draw is much more difficult this season than last. Could be a surprise slider.

Also agree....an excellent summary. I would only add that for Carlton losing Waite and Garlett equals 60 odd goals for the season they have to find.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I too think we will be bottom 4

I tried to do a ladder on the weekend and I couldn't get Melbourne out of the bottom four.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Watched a replay of a Hawks v Collingwood final from 2011 - not even 4 seasons ago. Collingwood had 15 players play that game that are no longer on their list. If they don't have a bad couple of years in the immediate future, it will show that you don't need to bottom out in order to rebuild a list. Sadly, I don't think they will be bottom 4 this year.

I also don't think West Coast will drop much. Freo may drop more positions, but will still play finals I'd expect.

I think North will consolidate a finals spot, getting closer to the Top 4 than some would expect. The top 7 will be (possibly in this order) Hawthorn, Sydney, Port, North, Fremantle, Geelong, Brisbane. I think 8th spot will be fought out between Adelaide, Gold Coast and (depending on the outcome of the current issue), Essendon.

The bottom 4 would have to be St Kilda, GWS and Bulldogs. It's the next group that could determine our finishing position. It is very open from 11th-15th. Bit of wishful thinking no doubt, but we could finish at the top end of that group with some luck, but it would mean we have to go past Richmond, West Coast, Carlton and Collingwood for this to happen - I'm just not sure it will.

If, as I expect, we do finish 15th (which will still mean bottom 4), I hope we are two or three games ahead of 16th, but only a game behind 11th.

[jazza 1,323]

I expect GWS to win 8 games at least.

[Emerald 1,744]

Richmond because they are..... um ...... they are Richmond.

[Roost It 1,434]

Carlton, they are just an average side with some less than average players.

I think Richmond will be a flop aswell, they are talking finals, I don't think they will make the finals, to me that is a fail for them.

St Kilda will be bottom 2, they haven't bottomed out yet, they still have some ways to go, I'd have them bottom 2 for the next 2 years at least.

I don't think it will be a good time to be down the bottom from here on in, just as we are seeing the same sides play off in the top 4, we'll also start to see those down the bottom of the ladder - stay there. I think MFC will avoid this due to a raft of young talent on our list, rebuilding sides can only dream of having a young brigade like the MFC.

Dreaming of another list.

We have 1 forward

Maybe 3 midfielders

And little offensive ability in our defence

We're bottom 2 or 3

[joeboy 3,160]

My 3 word team summary of expectation this year , with ladder position .

Hawthorn - team to beat ( 1 )

Sydney - powerful and threatening ( 2 )

Geelong - recruits add potency ( 6 )

North - will not slide ( 4 )

Footscray - will not prosper ( 17 )

GWS - readying to pounce ( 9 )

Gold Coast - Ablett the key ( 8 )

West Coast - don't seem convincing ( 10 )

Carlton - poor recruiting repercussions ( 16 )

Melbourne - expectations bely reality (15 )

Collingwood - key position weaknesses (12 )

StKilda - 3 years away ( 18 )

Richmond - around the mark ( 7 )

Brisbane - remarkably a contender ( 11 )

Adelaide - hard to gauge (14 )

Pt Adelaide - continued upward trend ( 3 )

Fremantle - massive home advantage ( 5 )

Essendon - disruptions will hurt ( 13 )

[CBDees 3,165]

I understand what you are saying but in reality losing to any side by one point means the improvement is still not enough.

I want this club to be beating everybody. That is where the Melbourne Football Club should be aiming to do

And until that happens i will see it as failure

I hope PJ & Roosy feel the same way

I had this discussion with Rhino years ago and got shouted down which i thought was foolish

This club has failed for decades because people have let it get there

We as supporters must never accept that situation again

Essendon - No need for explanation

Carlton - Need a rebuild, Madhouse is not the man to do it. Also lost that superstar Garlett.

Saints - Can't see them improving

Bulldogs - Losing Cooney, Cross and Griffen and a coach in the last few years is reminiscent of Melbourne. Culture problems. Libba doing his knee wont help either.

Collingwood - Lost 2 of the top 4 from last years b&f. Players don't like Buckley.

Richmond - fell into the finals last year and haven't improved their list

Geelong - Ageing list. Mitch Clarks calves wont stand up.

Freo - Coach is massively overrated. Ageing stars. Will slide

North- Waite could be a good inclusion but their draw is much more difficult this season than last. Could be a surprise slider.

I think that you have nailed it Wrecker however l have learned to always be cautious of North. On the other hand, we beat Adelaide last year and could well do it again. I see that you wisely left Gold Coast and GWS off your list and avoided a prediction on West Coast.

p.s. I suspect that we may also beat the filth this year!

Edited March 2, 2015 by CBDees

[Goodvibes 3,596]

Carlton, they are just an average side with some less than average players.

I think Richmond will be a flop aswell, they are talking finals, I don't think they will make the finals, to me that is a fail for them.

St Kilda will be bottom 2, they haven't bottomed out yet, they still have some ways to go, I'd have them bottom 2 for the next 2 years at least.

I don't think it will be a good time to be down the bottom from here on in, just as we are seeing the same sides play off in the top 4, we'll also start to see those down the bottom of the ladder - stay there. I think MFC will avoid this due to a raft of young talent on our list, rebuilding sides can only dream of having a young brigade like the MFC.

I'm pretty sure I posted something very similar to this about four years ago. Hope you're right!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Essendon - No need for explanation

Carlton - Need a rebuild, Madhouse is not the man to do it. Also lost that superstar Garlett.

Saints - Can't see them improving

Bulldogs - Losing Cooney, Cross and Griffen and a coach in the last few years is reminiscent of Melbourne. Culture problems. Libba doing his knee wont help either.

Collingwood - Lost 2 of the top 4 from last years b&f. Players don't like Buckley.

Richmond - fell into the finals last year and haven't improved their list

Geelong - Ageing list. Mitch Clarks calves wont stand up.

Freo - Coach is massively overrated. Ageing stars. Will slide

North- Waite could be a good inclusion but their draw is much more difficult this season than last. Could be a surprise slider.

love this

the first 5 to slide below us and we finish 12th on about 10 wins