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What is a winning lead?

Toorak

By Toorak
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Toorak Demon

Toorak   108

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Like most other I thought we had a winning margin late in the final quarter.

So what do you consider to a winning margin?

I would have thought when goals required exceeds the number minutes remaining. When remaining time is greater than 4 minutes.

Last night we had a 7 goal lead with 11 minutes remaining!

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Bang Bang Bang Redleg

Bang Bang Bang   5,623

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Problem was that the Doggies were murdering us out of the middle all night (even when we were dominating general play).. AND as always seems to happen after being inaccurate most of the night.. every shot they had, set-shot, snap, scissor-kick, you name it!... was going through the middle. They kicked 9.1 for the term.

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Ted Lasso Legend

Ted Lasso   17,347

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id say being 4 goals up at 3/4 time you would win 8 out of 10

i thought we were safe, all credit to the dogs though, griffen would look alright in red and blue ;)

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DeeSpencer Legend

DeeSpencer   23,714

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Depends on wind and other conditions they can make a huge difference.

The difference last night is that Gawn, Rodan, Sylvia and Nicholson completely ran out of puff and therefore it was a shot midfield competing against a midfield of Minson, Libba, Griff and Boyd. It really became a match just like Melb v GWS earlier in the year.

More midfield numbers and quality plus either an experienced ruck or Gawn with a couple of preseasons and we aren't having this discussion

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Chook Legend

Chook   14,711

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A winning lead (W) equals 1 plus your current score (S1) plus the score you're going to kick (S2), minus your opponent's score (O1), minus the score your opponent is going to kick (O2).

W = 1 + S1 + S2 - O1 - O2

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Forest Demon Redleg

Forest Demon   4,681

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A winning lead (W) equals 1 plus your current score (S1) plus the score you're going to kick (S2), minus your opponent's score (O1), minus the score your opponent is going to kick (O2).

W = 1 + S1 + S2 - O1 - O2

Well, looks like we played it just about perfectly last night then

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pitmaster Redleg

pitmaster   3,164

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I always thought you were safe when you were 40 points or more up at 3 quarter time.

Nope. Essendon overran us from more than 40 points down 3/4 time Anzac Day 1991 or 1992.

This week at 3/4 time I thought if we kicked two goals in the last term they could not get us. As it was, we needed three goals. I felt comfortable when Howie puts us 44 ahead but that feeling disappeared very quickly.

All around me was fear and apprehension as soon as the 'Dogs had two more.

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DemonFrog Trident

DemonFrog   1,347

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One point or greater lead at full time and the opposition is not going to have a shot on goals after the siren.

But we are Melbourne Supporters who want some excitment and or team does not like to dissapoint us.

A win is a win but Saturdays game did not change our teams fundermental issues, NO MIDFIELD!

Edited by TheBigFrog
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The Chazz Trident

The Chazz   4,077

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A winning lead is not defined by "x" amount of points up at any stage while there is time remaining. It is up to the trailing team to decide when they believe they can't win. The problem with teams playing against us in recent times is that they never think they are out of the game when we are in front.

It is something that the MFC has suffered from for decades - they either get in front and ease up, or get too far behind and give up. Once in a blue moon they go on with a slaughtering, or fight back from a deficit and get up, but these are the exceptions rather than the rules.

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