PRE MATCH DISCUSSION & TEAM SELECTION

[Demonland 73,126]

THE PUZZLE by the Whispering Jack

The forecast for Brisbane on Sunday is for a fine and partly cloudy day with the temperature reaching a maximum of 27 degrees. That's not too hot for the visiting Demons who spent most of the summer months training and playing in much warmer and even more humid conditions. The training was designed to help the team overcome the usual hardships encountered when playing under difficult circumstances, to improve fitness and give players the means of improving their skills particularly under duress but, when the NAB Cup practice matches and the the season proper began, things simply didn't turn out that way.

The first game against Port Adelaide saw the Demons overrun by a young team that played with greater purpose and desire on the hallowed turf of the MCG. The home ground advantage and the mild conditions of the day did nothing to prevent a humiliating loss by 79 points. Nor was there any respite in the following week when the margin was a whopping 148 point defeat at the hands of the Bombers. It took until the third game against West Coast before we witnessed even a remotely competitive opening half. The team was clapped off after trailing by 10 points at the main break before helplessly ceding 11 goals in the third quarter on the way to a 94 point defeat.

Amid the despair, there was bewilderment. The puzzle was that the team had undergone a pre season regime far superior to anything it had done previously and it had been quarantined from the off ground controversies that had beset it over the past two years. How could they be so bad and how could the rot be stopped?

The easy answer as it often is in these cases, was to blame the coach and the football department, to turn to past failures in recruiting and player development and point the finger higher to those who run the club. The first victim in Melbourne's case was the chief executive officer but we all knew that his departure wasn't going to turn things around on the field.

My best guess at the cause of the malaise was a massive lack of confidence in a team undergoing the transition in style between the game that had come naturally to many of them to that which the coach is trying to instil; a task made more difficult by a dearth of runners, particularly in the midfield.

If this was indeed the key, then the introduction of two players whose profile in the eyes of the outside world of the football is fairly low (Rohan Bail and Michael Evans) would start to make a small difference. The run they added against the Eagles in the early part of the game was evident and contributed to Melbourne's improvement, albeit for only half a game. It was the same last week against vastly inferior opposition when half a game was enough to win this time. There's still a lot of work to do to get that midfield and other areas up to speed against the bulk of AFL teams but significantly, the final quarter against the Giants saw a return of confidence in spades all over the ground and never mind the fact that it was against a gang of juveniles who had run themselves into the ground.

The Demons are now coming off a 12 goal final term in which everything they did came off superbly. Even the much maligned midfield was functioning perfectly and despite having to play in the heat and humidity of Brisbane this week, they come up against a team suffering its own crisis in confidence and without three players who played significant roles in their midfield destruction in the latter half of 2012 - Black, Rich and Handley. Of course, Brisbane coach Michael Voss would be far more concerned with his team's decline in form across the board than with the loss through injury of a few players. And if that loss of form coincides with a return of confidence at Melbourne after Sunday's final quarter heroics then the Dees must be a chance to win this one.

Particularly in view of the fact that Voss is bemoaning the fact that he he's puzzled as to why his team can't reproduce the form they're showing on the training track when it comes to playing under match conditions. Now where have I heard that before?

THE GAME Brisbane v Melbourne at The Gabba - Sunday, 28 April 2013 at 3.15 pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Brisbane 17 wins Melbourne 21 wins

Gabba Brisbane 12 wins Melbourne 7 wins

Since 2000 Brisbane 9 wins Melbourne 8 wins

The Coaches Voss 2 win Neeld 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 7 TV Fox Footy (live at 3:00pm AEST)

RADIO Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING Brisbane $1.15 Melbourne $5.50

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Brisbane Lions 18.14.122 defeated Melbourne 8.13.61 in Round 14, 2012 at the Gabba

Hit hard by injury (Clark, Jones, Jamar and Davey all out from the previous game), the Demons had no answer to the rampant Lions and their dominant midfield. They also were forced to recast the defence after Tom McDonald was injured early in the game and J Brown ended up having a birthday. Strangely enough, you can get better odds from the bookies this week than you could the last time they met.

THE TEAMS

BRISBANE LIONS

Backs Jed Adcock Daniel Merrett Elliot Yeo

Half backs Joel Patfull Justin Clarke Mitch Golby

Centreline James Polkinghorne Brent Moloney Sam Mayes

Half forwards Marco Paparone Jonathan Brown Rohan Bewick

Forwards Josh Green Aaron Cornelius Dayne Zorko

Followers Matthew Leuenberger Jack Redden Andrew Raines

Interchange (from) Jack Crisp Sam Docherty Patrick Karnezis Ryan Lester Billy Longer Ashley McGrath Tom Rockliff

In Justin Clarke Aaron Cornelius Jack Crisp Patrick Karnezis Ryan Lester Billy Longer James Polkinghorne Elliot Yeo

Out Pearce Hanley (suspend) Ryan Harwood Stefan Martin (injured) Nial McKeever Daniel Rich (injured)

MELBOURNE

Backs Jack Watts James Frawley Dean Terlich
Half backs Jack Grimes Tom McDonald Colin Garland
Centreline Jack Trengove Colin Sylvia Sam Blease
Half forwards Rohan Bail Cameron Pedersen Jeremy Howe
Forwards David Rodan Max Gawn Shannon Byrnes
Followers Mark Jamar Michael Evans Nathan Jones
Interchange Aaron Davey Matt Jones Jordie McKenzie Luke Tapscott
Emergencies Daniel Nicholson Jake Spencer James Strauss

In Sam Blease Jordie McKenzie David Rodan

Out Mitch Clark (foot) Neville Jetta (suspension) Jack Viney (rested)

HYPOTHESIS by Whispering Jack

I’m working on a hypothesis to explain what is necessary to achieve success in AFL football and, despite the lack of a substantive body of data to assist my research; I’m starting to be convinced that there is a correlation between being an accused drug cheat and winning games of football.

You only need to look at the top of the ladder Bombers who, since early in February have lived under the pall of their own drug scandal involving peptides, out of premises injections and accusations about supplements taken by their coach and his previous involvement with shady characters. They’re unbeaten and now, on a weekly basis are handing out floggings to highly credentialed opponents like Collingwood who they tuned into mincemeat on Anzac Day. And the worse the news gets, the better they play.

Essendon’s form is totally unexpected and, while several theories have arisen as to the cause of their substantial improvement over what they showed in the latter half of last year, the one that stands out for me is the drug furore.

I consulted a leading researcher at a major university medical faculty who explained it all in a single word – “endorphins”. Endorphins are endogenous opioid peptides that function as neurotransmitters. They are produced by the pituitary gland and the hypothalamus in vertebrates during exercise, excitement, pain, consumption of spicy food, love and orgasm and they resemble the opiates in their abilities to produce analgesia and a feeling of well-being. Essentially, the Bombers and their fans are currently floating on air. They’re feeling good.

Now, if you look at Melbourne and apply my working hypothesis, it’s impossible to escape one incontrovertible fact. Until a week ago when news of the Danks/Bates connection broke and the Demons suddenly stood accused of … well something to do with SMS messages and chemist’s prescriptions ... the team stunk. An average losing margin over three weeks of 107 points stood as testament to that but when the smoke settled and the boys ran out on to the MCG rattling loudly as if they were full to the brim of a wide range of pills, it was obvious that a different Melbourne was out there wearing the red and blue. By the final quarter, every player was loaded to the gills with endorphin-inspired ecstasy. All I can say is that twelve goals in a quarter after so many low scoring final halves didn’t come out of the blue.

On Sunday, the Brisbane Lions won’t know what hit them.

Melbourne by 224 points.

[Readers should not that the above was written with tongue slightly in cheek]

It's been done before but here it is again for those lucky enough to be travelling to the Gabba - 3 Things You Should Know For Your Great Gabba Getaway Press Release

[dees189227 12,395]

We could be back on the bottom of the ladder if GWS beat the suns and we lose. Geez I hope we can take the last quarter momentum in this weeks game. Its a huge chance to win on the road something we have struggled with.

No Mitch this week but Maxy showed he can take a mark up forward.

[Toad33 57]

Some good news for the Dees ahead of this weekends game.

Brisbane Lions Star Daniel Rich to Miss 8 Weeks with a Broken Scapula

Personally I am sorry to see him out of football for so long. He is a joy to watch.

Go Dees

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I can't believe the odds on this game.

I know we've been ordinary to date, but the Lions at $1.15 to win. Bloody hell.

[rumpole 522]

IIRC the Brisbane midfielder who really killed us last time was Jack Redden who just missed out on incurring the wrath of the MRP this after last week. He and Rockliff still need to be contained. And then there's Beamer who they said was the best thing to arrive in Brisbane since sliced bread.

Their midfield is still going to be problematic.

[CHAMP 347]

I can't believe the odds on this game.

I know we've been ordinary to date, but the Lions at $1.15 to win. Bloody hell.

The Bookies have framed the market on the slashing Bears performance five starts ago in the NAB.

They've looked at our previous long run of outs and paid little heed to last week's fast-finish.

That said, with no Black, Rich or Hanley, $5.50 is way-long I reckon. Value!

[Cards13 9,117]

And our ability to score goals is the other little problem. Clark out, no sign of Dawes, Maxi is in his 2nd game as a fwd/ruckman, the cupboard looks a little bare trying to bomb goals from 50+ out.

[CHAMP 347]

The Demons this season have 48.29 on the board whereas The Loins only 39.58.

They have their own problems.

[Chook 15,022]

And our ability to score goals is the other little problem. Clark out, no sign of Dawes, Maxi is in his 2nd game as a fwd/ruckman, the cupboard looks a little bare trying to bomb goals from 50+ out.

I rewatched our GWS game and noticed that Mitch Clark was TERRIBLE ... and yet we still kicked 150 points. If the rest of our team carries on the form they showed in the last quarter, Mitch Clark's absence might not be so bad.

[Whispering_Jack 30,576]

I've just been watching the first half of the Anzac Day game and trying to compare it in my mind with last Sunday's game. You can sum up the difference in the intensity and the fact that the players in today's game are able maintain their skills at a higher level under greater degrees of intensity. I suppose that's obvious really but it's amazing that we did lift our intensity last week when GWS fell away and, in doing so, our skills improved.

Notwithstanding, I suspect that we're a long, long way off the levels of Essendon and Collingwood (again self-evident because the Bombers beat us by 148 three weeks ago). However, with improved confidence, I think we can go a fair way to bridging the gap.

[cowboy_from_hell 2,390]

I rewatched our GWS game and noticed that Mitch Clark was TERRIBLE ... and yet we still kicked 150 points. If the rest of our team carries on the form they showed in the last quarter, Mitch Clark's absence might not be so bad.

Mitch wasn't great but if our mids had honored his leads in the first half instead of trying to kick goals on the run he could of had a handful of goals in the first half. Mitch gave N.jones a fair spray on one occasion when jones went for goal and shanked it instead of a 20 meter kick to Mitch.

To win this game with a smaller forward line we need to win the clearances convincingly. We can't be stuck in our back half and then play the boundary and hope that Howe takes 20 contested marks in a game.

[monoccular 17,571]

I rewatched our GWS game and noticed that Mitch Clark was TERRIBLE ... and yet we still kicked 150 points. If the rest of our team carries on the form they showed in the last quarter, Mitch Clark's absence might not be so bad.

...but he was there!!! A "presence".

[monoccular 17,571]

Seriously, and possibly very important (remember Ricky Petterd and his collapsed lung): do we have a club doctor????

[daisycutter 29,707]

just to confirm

black definitely played in magoos today. got 1 goal and was 2nd best for Bears

[stuie 7,374]

I rewatched our GWS game and noticed that Mitch Clark was TERRIBLE ... and yet we still kicked 150 points. If the rest of our team carries on the form they showed in the last quarter, Mitch Clark's absence might not be so bad.

[bing181 9,328]

Round five Melbourne team

B: Jack Watts, James Frawley, Dean Terlich
HB: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland
C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Sam Blease
HF: Rohan Bail, Cameron Pedersen, Jeremy Howe
F: David Rodan, Max Gawn, Shannon Byrnes
FOLL: Mark Jamar, Michael Evans, Nathan Jones

I/C (from): Jordie McKenzie, James Strauss, Daniel Nicholson, Luke Tapscott, Aaron Davey, Jake Spencer, Matt Jones

IN: David Rodan, Jordie McKenzie, James Strauss, Jake Spencer, Sam Blease, Daniel Nicholson

OUT: Mitch Clark (foot), Neville Jetta (suspension), Jack Viney (rested)

Edited April 25, 2013 by bing181

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,233]

Round five Melbourne team

B: Jack Watts, James Frawley, Dean Terlich

HB: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland

C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Sam Blease

HF: Rohan Bail, Cameron Pedersen, Jeremy Howe

F: David Rodan, Max Gawn, Shannon Byrnes

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Michael Evans, Nathan Jones

I/C (from): Jordie McKenzie, James Strauss, Daniel Nicholson, Luke Tapscott, Aaron Davey, Jake Spencer, Matt Jones

IN: David Rodan, Jordie McKenzie, James Strauss, Jake Spencer, Sam Blease, Daniel Nicholson

OUT: Mitch Clark (foot), Neville Jetta (suspension), Jack Viney (rested)

I expect the bench to be McKenzie, Tapscott, Davey, Jones. Happy that we have not brought in a tall just for the sake of playing one. Gawn, Pedersen with Howe deep should give them a target.

Edited April 25, 2013 by big_red_fire_engine

[olisik 4,060]

Evans starting on ball. I like

[Dee Fan 3,247]

That would be the worst forward line I've seen for a very long time if not ever.

[Redleg 41,406]

That would be the worst forward line I've seen for a very long time if not ever.

I think ever.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

I think ever.

I think I'll change my tip.

[DeeSpencer 26,070]

Interesting that Brisbane have dropped Martin and will also play 2 rucks as well as Cornelius and Paparone. Frawley to brown, McDonald to the resting ruck, garland to Cornelius and watts to show what he can do on the lively Paparone.

They've also bought in a debutant to play CHB. Patfull on Howe to be a good matchup.

I'm surprise that blease is back. Not sure he's earnt it to be honest.

The last pick on the bench will be interesting. One of mckenzie, Strauss, tappy, Davey or jones to miss out. I'd think mckenzie would play and tappy and Davey for one to play and the other be the sub. Potentially it might be time for Jones to take a spell in the 2's to work on his disposal and defensive work rate. Rodan, blease and mckenzie can cover his midfield time. That way Strauss comes I'm for jetta.

It would mean mckenzie, trengove and jones play midfield time whilst blease, Byrnes, Evans, tapscott, Sylvia, bail and Rodan all rotate through. Not quite the talent but good midfield rotations at least.

[P-man 13,366]

Geeze it looks different without Mitch. Underwhelming forward line, but good enough against the paddle pops. You'd think that Howe needs a big game for us to pull off a win.

Davey the sub again? Was massive off the bench last week.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,233]

I think ever.

Its not much different to the forwardline that kicked 12 in the last. Statistically you could say its our best ever

[DeeSpencer 26,070]

That would be the worst forward line I've seen for a very long time if not ever.

You do realise this forward line was the one that kicked 12 goals in a quarter. Sure I'd rather have Clark than not but this forward line lets Howe become an important target whilst Gawn/Jamar and pedersen provide contests. If the big blokes bring it to ground we are actually well equipt to keep the ball in and crumb goals.

Essendon smacked Collingwood today with a simple forward line. Bellchambers and Hille deep with Gumby as the CHF then get goals from smalls. Our smalls aren't stars but they are capable to score. The big question is what can Pedersen do?

Either pedo or the resting ruck will take a first gamer, lets see how they go.