A change of heart ? Have the odds changed for you

[beelzebub 23,348]

Well i was searching for a logical place to put this and decided id have to trawl back too far.

Have yo changed your expectaions of finish position wins/loss etc SINCE the list has been overhauled ??

i recalled prior to the draft/trade that the Bookies and 'illustrious' scribes alike had us very much down the list in terms of where we would likely finish, odds to Premiership, odds to top 4 even odds to final 8 etc.

I note that were still averaging around 250 :1 for the cup. well reality suggests it s a nonsense figure as i dont think we will win it either. But you know I wouldnt rule it out 100% . Stranger things have occurred.. I might put a throw-away 20 on it ...what the hell..lol

Where some real value occurs I feel are the odds for the 8 ; you can get 10's... not to shabby there.. Im putting 100 there I can get 70's for the top 4...what the hell.. $20

love to know what exotics are avail for Brownlow too

its interesting to see and try to understand why were considered such poor bets against the likes of Richmond, Nth , Adelaide, Essendon and the bloody Crows !!

i would say there are ONLY 5 teams id auto rank above us. Haw, Syd, Geel, Freo Coll WCE. Im not scared of carlton.

Much of the betting numbers would have been inspired before we revitalised our list . Im not saying this revival style restock is guaranteed success but it will succeed far beyond 2012.

So where are you now ?

Yes not a ball has been fought over in anger, not a goal kicked in competition but you would have to be Visually impaired Frederick not realise this will be a very different Melbourne taking to the field.

what say you all ?

[beelzebub 23,348]

Just to answer the question some are no doubt thinking ; 'how does he think we'll finish top 8 ' ?

1) Ive already mentioned I dont rate some of the sides ( that the bookies do ) automatically better finishers than us.

2) We have a reasonably favourable draw. If we can gel reasonably well and quickly we will present a very competitive team . i think 12 wins is quite possible, even 13. We'll account for GC and the Midgets ( both times ) I rate us better than the Pups. We have the Bummers measure. Anything could happen QB . Ought to win one of the Lions games. Port is a schamozzle. I think the Crows will come way back to earth in 13. Id prefer the Saints at the G but they're hard to quantify currently. Dont see exceptional thing for the Seaford boys in 13. Carlton will remember 13 for the year the Dees created a new hoodoo for them !!

that puts us in the 8

[Bonkers 994]

Your guess is as good as mine. The midfield needs to develop significantly from the existing players we had pre draft & trade period in terms of fitness & application. A few of the midfield & rotation players need to step up to the next level, I'm thinking Grimes, Trengove, Blease, Tapscott & even Howe to develop further. Then with the inclusion of Viney, Rodan & Toumpas as well as possibly Kent, Jones & Terlich there is scope for improvement. How much improvement is the question.

Neeld has stated previously that toward the end of the season we started to draw level on inside 50 stats with most of our opponents. With the new forward line structure, quicker & more efficient delivery inside 50 I believe we can expect to finish 10-13. If they exceed that expectation great. Going back to the Bailey era the mantra was competitive. I am now realistically expecting that we will be exactly that against all sides below 6-8 on the ladder. We still do not have an A grade or elite talent other than Clark. We probably need one or two of those elite talents in the midfield to start thinking of the top 8.

[Die Hard Demon 1,224]

While I voted for us to finish 10-13 next year.. I do think we will be one of the most underestimated teams. And will surprise a LOT of outside people. On other sites, most other supporters have us finishing bottom 4... We will be much better than a bottom 4 side IMO.. Top 8 seems unrealistic in contrast to this year.. But definitely not impossible..

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

It is just too hard to tell. The list is savagely different. Which i like.

But will they gel?

Can Mark Neeld MAKE them gel.

I would talk to Craig Bellamy myself. There is no better man than Craig at turning outcasts into Premiership Players. Both clubs share the same building.

Yes we could make the 8 if luck goes with us or we could be a mess.

We have lost a lot of experience. Bartram even LJ for nothing. Moloney & Rivers walked which i think is a positive, but the players we drafted MUST fire.

I will be looking for the little things.

Players encouaging one another. High 5's or whatever. Last season there was none of that. Players were to insular not knowing their own future...now the picture is clearer (i hope)

[beelzebub 23,348]

While I voted for us to finish 10-13 next year.. I do think we will be one of the most underestimated teams. And will surprise a LOT of outside people. On other sites, most other supporters have us finishing bottom 4... We will be much better than a bottom 4 side IMO.. Top 8 seems unrealistic in contrast to this year.. But definitely not impossible..

yes we will surprise. Possibly ourselves the most..lol.

We were savaged by injuries in 12 and im sure that is one of the reasons we now seem to have much better depth and competition for places.. "Just in Case "

Someone is injured....put another one in etc.

Im not blind to the idea that yes, other teams can improve too , but its a game of by how much. I fervently expect or improvement to be demonstarable.

GWS has a lot of "talent" but its like a slightly aged TAC team....versus MEN . Weve got rid of some of this so called "talent' for MEN..theres a reason.

i also expect the Twin towers approach to be a nightmare for many opposition coaches.. Even if you can 'calm; these down theres a lot more to the amoury now.

[beelzebub 23,348]

It is just too hard to tell. The list is savagely different. Which i like.

But will they gel?

Can Mark Neeld MAKE them gel.

I would talk to Craig Bellamy myself. There is no better man than Craig at turning outcasts into Premiership Players. Both clubs share the same building.

Yes we could make the 8 if luck goes with us or we could be a mess.

We have lost a lot of experience. Bartram even LJ for nothing. Moloney & Rivers walked which i think is a positive, but the players we drafted MUST fire.

I will be looking for the little things.

Players encouaging one another. High 5's or whatever. Last season there was none of that. Players were to insular not knowing their own future...now the picture is clearer (i hope)

yes we lost Barty and Jurrah...but what was their real contribution for 12..?? lets be harsh.. Not that considerable.

Its about synergy.. and Craig as you allude is a master. ( crossed fingers)

[beelzebub 23,348]

If I may.. Anyone who answered that we HAVENT overhauled the list sufficiently to show improvement...... why not ? Where are we still lacking ?

just asking

[Guest]

I view the 2013 Demons as similar to Carlton in '08. We finally have got a team on the park that might frighten some people. However, it needs time to gel and I think there will be a fair bit of improvement next year just short of a finals berth.

[Akum 2,660]

If I may.. Anyone who answered that we HAVENT overhauled the list sufficiently to show improvement...... why not ? Where are we still lacking ?

just asking http://demonland.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/#EMO_DIR#/demon_smile.gif

While I like the trading & drafting strategy for the 'type' of player we've gone after & brought in, it's still the case that a lot of them were either "fringe" players from other AFL clubs, or from "second division" (VFL, SAFL, WAFL) clubs.

We're banking on improvement from:

* these "fringe" players;

* new draftees;

* players who had an ordinary 2012;

* players whose 2012 was wrecked by injury etc.

What I really like is that we seem to be building a much better team structure than we've had for a long time. If it all comes together it'll be a pleasant surprise, but it may take a fair amount of the season to gel. Or not.

The signs are good, but after so many false dawns, it's JUST hard to get too optimistic.

Oh, and the first question said "discernible improvement immediately" - I think improvement will come, but not immediately.

[beelzebub 23,348]

While I like the trading & drafting strategy for the 'type' of player we've gone after & brought in, it's still the case that a lot of them were either "fringe" players from other AFL clubs, or from "second division" (VFL, SAFL, WAFL) clubs.

We're banking on improvement from:

* these "fringe" players;

* new draftees;

* players who had an ordinary 2012;

* players whose 2012 was wrecked by injury etc.

What I really like is that we seem to be building a much better team structure than we've had for a long time. If it all comes together it'll be a pleasant surprise, but it may take a fair amount of the season to gel. Or not.

The signs are good, but after so many false dawns, it's JUST hard to get too optimistic.

can i therefore ask, does it really matter where they came from or the circumstances ? Isnt it really about what they can do, what they offer ?

I see the FD as hedging their bets to a degree. Yes they will want many who are currently recovering from injuries to impact. Theyll want draftees to step up to a point. They'll want a whole raft of things But I see them as being tempered in expectation of how much from whom. I sense they look at it holistically and seek an an overall improvement.

some of these 'brought in " types dont actually need to improve...they CAN play, just were starved at their previous clubs.

Dawes, Rodan...hardly fringe.

Pedersen..... fringe or just out of favour etc

Byrnes ..fringe ? No...just not the current flavour of Geelong.

BOG in interstate finals isnt that shabby really

There are a few who might genuinely be fringe I'll cede

if we were a V8 you might say we struggled on 4 in '12. we need to purr along with 8 to win a cup.. I think we'll bubble along next year on 6 cyl;. rough, but effective.

[Lord Travis 10,728]

Anything less than finals is a failure. We've been down the bottom too long and if it takes nearly 10 years just to be competitive again then there is no hope for our next flag.

Finals 2013!!!

[Alcho Dee 269]

If we finish outside the 8 I would consider it a disappointing year

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I think we will be vastly improved, which is contadictory to a few of the pundits on here I normally see eye to eye with.

Penny should drop with game plan, fitter and stronger young bodies, more players vying for selection, holes filled.

[beelzebub 23,348]

If we finish outside the 8 I would consider it a disappointing year

strangely so will I. Some will think it folly. I just have a gut feeling ( wheres the Buscopan ) that we WILL leapfrog other teams.

our kernel talent wasnt that bad, we were just invariably undermanned and some players forced to stop gap in other positions to stay the onslaughts whilst learning valuable experience. Many were unsupported , whilst others stood around etc.

it will be chalk and cheese next year. The whole demeanor of the group is so different it amazing its happened in such a short perios really.

[PaulRB 6,362]

Where is OD to put an end to this optimistic jibber jabber?

[beelzebub 23,348]

Where is OD to put an end to this optimistic jibber jabber?

OD is ok hes like many of us, been around too long to experience too many false dawns; becomes hard to recognise a real one when it comes along then

[PaulRB 6,362]

I'm mocked annually in March for my optimism and pitied in July-Sept.

I agree this looks like a solid dawn... shhh

[DEE fence 5,007]

I am a huge fan of the trades, think there is a plan and can't wait to see it put into action.

But all I expect is some tougher more competitive (dare i say it bruising) football.

Last year was a log jam between 7 and 12, I don't expect our percentage to be brilliant (we are still new and young there will be some blowouts - lets not lose the plot as long as there are no 186's) so I can see us on the outside of the eight despite a much better improvement in style and effort etc.

What I really want to see change from the 2000's is losing the 'F%&^&*%*( games we should win... the only reason I don't try and shout down people who criticise the club as useless in the last 20 years is because even in our strong seasons we had a penchant for dropping the games we could bank, used to drive me spare, more than anything I want that to go. I think we've played some attractive footy during and since the Northey years, now I want to see ruthless.

But I do think we are on the right track and I'm not going to drop my bundle if we don't make the eight as long as I see strong improvement-2014 must be finals though.

If Neeld has some sort of Midas touch with who we've picked up and we do make the eight I'll be surprised, top four and I'm on the plane home baby.

edit: every trip home to oz in the last seven years I've only seen miserable losses, you have no idea how much that bites after travelling for a few days, makes a trip to Perth small beer.

[Supermercado 2,797]

0-66 for making the four is the most lopsided forum vote I've ever seen. Correct vote though.

I said 13th before this year and was wrong, so going for it again next year - but a relatively strong 13th a'la Brisbane this season.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

BB59,

You're pumped like I haven't seen you pumped.

8 out of 20 posts in a thread you started.

You must be after more likes to add to your distinguished ratio.

but you are right.

I wouldn't go as far to say top 6, but finals is not beyond us.I would like to see what our form is like after the spell.

Most likely Round 8 would give a better indication.

But keep it up and I may add to your ratio .

Edited November 30, 2012 by Chippy

[Alcho Dee 269]

Mitch Clark was basically our only main target last year , with Dawes beside him we should be much better . We lost many games in the last quarter in 2012. I think having Toumpas , Viney and Dawes in our team will make a huge difference. These 3 know how to play football.

I think there are a handfull of players who really need to stand up for us to finish in the 8, Sylvia , Trengove , blease , watts, Howe , McKenzie, jamar, Tapscott.

Players like grimes, Clark, Jones, McDonald, Dawes I think we know what we will get. .

Mostly we need goals from our midfield,

Viney, Jones, Toumpas, Trengove are key to us. Be the next no1 midfield in the AFL !

All highly skilled high draft picks, get it down to our forwards Clark, Dawes

Hogan.

Finish 7th,beat Collingwood on QB .

Another year without finals will suck!

[Biffen 12,943]

Last pre-season I was over-optimistic.

2013 will be the most dreadfully painful season in our history .

We will be a rabble and look like idiots on and off the field .

Without Cale ,what hope have we got?

Even GWS will thrash us with their evil genius coach and his dedicated young troops.

Could be the end of us all .

[Melb-A-Toast 257]

Mark Mark Neeld's needs and then compare them with his gets. Depth in marking forwards; small defensive forwards; depth, skill and speed in midfield; ability to spread; elite delivery from half back line. All looks good to me

[beelzebub 23,348]

Chippy... I just felt the need to get the thread happening.. it will roll of its own accord

I am a bit pumped in a fashion. For years , ne decades we've needed to really take the pruning shears to the Rosebush and get it back to health. Neeld ( & FD ) have done this. far too long coming but its come. Serious inadequacies have been addressed in the list whilst at the same time lancing the soft marzipan from the heart of the team. For too long like the icing, its looked good whilst hiding that we didnt have much of a cake to boot.

There no real telling yet just how furtive teh new team will be but in all areas either total lackings or the shallowness have been looked at and addressed.

Mids...well the traffic cops and skeletal boys have been moved on. Into the void some genuine bonefide acknowledged talent with pedigree have been injected.

Inside and out, new faces. Rucks have been augmented.

The back lien can return to being a backline and not a part time wandering lot of stand in forwards. Preseasons will add to the strength and girth as well as aplomb of this part of the list.

The fwd end, the glamour end hasnt gone without attention either. No longer will our attack revolved or land squarely at the foot of one. Twin pillars of focus along with seasoned opportunists have been added.

There some games in 2012 we all most one but for a qtr and a bloke or two; amazing really having been so undermanned. This tells me there are already some decent footballers but they simply couldnt do it alone. They wont have to anymore.

So much of footy is confidence. Thats contagious. With players supporting each other better and more ably equiped logic alone suggest a quantum improvement is just around the corner.

Just about every position is up for grabs and theres more players available than slots. No one is going to want to drop their game lest they find it a hard path to get back in.

I have no doubt at times ( in past ) some blokes would have looked around and thought "who's kidding who here".....we're stretched beyond ability. it gets hard to get yourselves up sometimes as you just know it wot matter.

Its all different now. Troops are better, the munitions are there. Just need the desire and occasion to let rip.

There are going to be, like some suggest, some folks very surprised by the Melbourne of 2013. But it wont be perfect. it never will be . There will always be comings and goings, tweakings and refinements.

As a coach Neeld has some chance of implementing a style that can be carried out. The foundations were put in last season for some. Others coming in already know the work required. Kids ( relative ) will now be chaperoned by Grand finalists, premiership players indeed. Some will relish not having to carry the can alone, others will thrive playing alongside more experienced players. The tenet will lift dramatically.

cant wait