The Likely Picks?

[640MD 3,429]

But wouldnt it be nice to hear the squealing?

Stuff the other clubs, and dimwit. Lets play this to our advantage however we can.

Can we borrow some visy brown paper bags?

spelling edit....

Love the idea, let them squeal !

Go Dees give 'em HELL !!!

[rpfc 28,779]

I guess this was also the main question I had - if another team nominates him but we secure him, do they get to use that pick in the draft, or is it gone?

No, if they bid and we take him, they can still use that pick because they didn't win the 'auction.'

[Dee Fan 3,247]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/138743/default.aspx

Couple of likely lads, like the sound of both of them but not as early picks.

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

More 17 year olds? Why don't we just start try-outs at Timezone?

Highest score on Whack-a-mole gets a dees guernsey.

[Demon 16 214]

I hope we dont use pick 3 on Viney.

We will get a very handy footballer at pick 3 no matter what - and any club willing to take the risk of drafting Jack Viney with pick 1 or 2 is more than firting with danger - he will always want to be traded back to Melbourne from day 1.

[Travis Boots 157]

There is no chance that we will call any club's bluff. 0% Nor should we. It would be a bigger blunder than the enforced Macdonald retirement for an array of reasons

[Josh 1,420]

Everyone is assuming we will finish above the 2 expansion teams.

If we finish under GWS or GC or both then this wont be a problem, and the way we are playing and the way they are playing its not imposible, wait untill the year is out. we may end up with pick one, compo pick 2 then viney with our high teens pick?

Edited June 16, 2012 by Josh

[640MD 3,429]

Everyone is assuming we will finish above the 2 expansion teams.

If we finish under GWS or GC or both then this wont be a problem, and the way we are playing and the way they are playing its not imposible, wait untill the year is out. we may end up with pick one, compo pick 2 then viney with our high teens pick?

Hope you are wrong but concede the definite possibility,

But when the season is shot so early and so definitely

Any "good" news lifts the gloom jest a little !

[Josh 1,420]

Im walking around work thinking about that scenario and if we finish on the bottom, we get pick 1 then our compo pick, pick 2?

We lost Scully our No 1 draft pick and we could end up with Pick 1 and 2?!?!

And Viney as a F/S rule around pick 20?

AND the other compo pick in at 12ish

Is this correct?

[Guest Topophilia]

Is it not draft tampering if a club bids for a player it has no intention of drafting for the sole purpose of forcing another team to use their next pick?

I thought the intention of the rule was to get the father son club to pay closer to the value of the player by using their next pick rather than an earlier pick for their perceived value?

I think Neeld has begun the smart play with his comments about not paying overs. And I'd be pretty sure Todd and Jack would be well worded up about how the by play may present.

Personally, I'm not that worried either way it goes. We will get two or three players rated around picks 3,4,5. Someone mid first round and a very early second rounder or Viney at that pick. Our ability to choose well and develop culture and players will be more important in the bigger picture. (Mitch Clark for 12, Morto at 4, McLean.....I'm not in love with picks.)

[Guest Topophilia]

Im walking around work thinking about that scenario and if we finish on the bottom, we get pick 1 then our compo pick, pick 2?

We lost Scully our No 1 draft pick and we could end up with Pick 1 and 2?!?!

And Viney as a F/S rule around pick 20?

AND the other compo pick in at 12ish

Is this correct?

Who wants to finish last? Stakka's seven wins from games remaining might be ambitious but I'd rather see the team play well and enjoy some success than line up for more 1&2 action.

Not saying you're wanting the win the spoon, just saying I don't and am over feeling successful because we get supposedly great players at low picks.

[Josh 1,420]

Who wants to finish last? Stakka's seven wins from games remaining might be ambitious but I'd rather see the team play well and enjoy some success than line up for more 1&2 action.

Not saying you're wanting the win the spoon, just saying I don't and am over feeling successful because we get supposedly great players at low picks.

No not at all I agree, I would rather see morton, tappy, blease strauss grimes and trengrove bust our of the blocks for the later end of the season I just wanted to to know if that scenario is true. It would make the "melbourne got the better of the scully" comments hold some real weight.

Is it not draft tampering if a club bids for a player it has no intention of drafting for the sole purpose of forcing another team to use their next pick?

I thought the intention of the rule was to get the father son club to pay closer to the value of the player by using their next pick rather than an earlier pick for their perceived value?

I think Neeld has begun the smart play with his comments about not paying overs. And I'd be pretty sure Todd and Jack would be well worded up about how the by play may present.

Personally, I'm not that worried either way it goes. We will get two or three players rated around picks 3,4,5. Someone mid first round and a very early second rounder or Viney at that pick. Our ability to choose well and develop culture and players will be more important in the bigger picture. (Mitch Clark for 12, Morto at 4, McLean.....I'm not in love with picks.)

Agreed either way we are going to get some good young talent to the club, it will be the ability to develop them, which IMO we are terrible at...

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

I hope we dont use pick 3 on Viney.

We will get a very handy footballer at pick 3 no matter what - and any club willing to take the risk of drafting Jack Viney with pick 1 or 2 is more than firting with danger - he will always want to be traded back to Melbourne from day 1.

You say that with such confidence. Put yourself in his shoes; You are promised to be picked up by the club you are actually contracted to, only to be blindsighted and passed on. Would you want to be traded back in? I'm not so sure. That would be a betrayal and it would hurt. Especially to a young kid who just wants to play for the jumper he loves.

And we will use pick three on Viney and that is fine. Any club under us will force us to use our first pick because everybody knows we are obliged to take him. The only way we can make them pass is if we make a deal. This is really one of the easiest concepts about our draft situation to understand and I am surprised it is just so hard for some people here to comprehend it.

Viney will be at the club next year, and if we are forced to use our first round pick on him we will without a hint of hesitation. It really is as simple as that!

[whatwhat say what 22,946]

Viney is going to be a valuable selection anywhere after the first two really. The kid is rated very highly and will be worth whatever pick we end up having to use to draft him.

If we don't pick him I'll be very disappointed, cos everything I've been told about him makes him sound worth it.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

I hope we dont use pick 3 on Viney.

We will get a very handy footballer at pick 3 no matter what - and any club willing to take the risk of drafting Jack Viney with pick 1 or 2 is more than firting with danger - he will always want to be traded back to Melbourne from day 1.

His Value is Pick 3, top 3 player this year from what i gather although i am no expert

[rjay 25,088]

https://www.afl.com....43/default.aspx

Couple of likely lads, like the sound of both of them but not as early picks.

We will pick up some really good kids in this draft including Viney. I hope we get the selection process right, haven't heard anything more about Rendall joining the pies so we should still be pushing to get him on board even if it's just for this draft.

[JiveTurkey 8]

Ive tried to crystalise my thoughts on the whole Viney situation for my own benefit and feel compelled to share.

I beleive it is nonsense to think we can bluff our way into a position where other clubs wont bid on Viney because they are unsure we will opt to take him at the next pick, rightly or wrongly that horse has bolted. That doesnt mean the club shouldnt try to create doubt i just dont think it will work.

However there is no great benefit for themselves to anyone who has a pick before us to bid for viney, maybe one extra player to pick from for their second pick (20+). The real benefit is for clubs immdiently above us on the ladder.

So my opinion is GWS and GCS if they are the only clubs below us will bid for VIney unless we can offer them greater benefits. As such pick 3 in this case is gone in terms of selecting a player from the draft for ourselves (eg = no benefit to GWS or GCS)

But we can benefit ourselves and GWS and GCS by trading this pick (3) in a three way trade with those clubs, seeing as how it would be used on viney in any case. It would have to be arranged before draft day and agreed to in principle but i cant see how it wouldnt happen as it offers greater benefit to GCS and GWS.

Plus it suits what people have been begging for in a more mature player with some years in the system, and now it looks like it matches the GCS need to shed a few players from its list.

My thinking is something along these lines.

Trade pick 3 to GWS

GWS U17 pick 1 to GCS

and player from GCS to Melb

Someone like a caddy who has been spoken about, or a prestia.

It may be a slightly high price on the market for the GCS player but i would hope they would be a better (maybe i should say more likely) prospect than the kid taken at pick 20 something this year. Plus they are ready to go with lots of time left in there career.

And its a great deal for GCS and GWS.. certainly more than they would get just by bidding for Viney.

It doesnt just have to be a deal for nothing we can get something great out of it too. Certainly more likely than offering them steak knives not to bid.

Anyway hope it makes some sense. Cheers

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Ive tried to crystalise my thoughts on the whole Viney situation for my own benefit and feel compelled to share.

I beleive it is nonsense to think we can bluff our way into a position where other clubs wont bid on Viney because they are unsure we will opt to take him at the next pick, rightly or wrongly that horse has bolted. That doesnt mean the club shouldnt try to create doubt i just dont think it will work.

However there is no great benefit for themselves to anyone who has a pick before us to bid for viney, maybe one extra player to pick from for their second pick (20+). The real benefit is for clubs immdiently above us on the ladder.

So my opinion is GWS and GCS if they are the only clubs below us will bid for VIney unless we can offer them greater benefits. As such pick 3 in this case is gone in terms of selecting a player from the draft for ourselves (eg = no benefit to GWS or GCS)

But we can benefit ourselves and GWS and GCS by trading this pick (3) in a three way trade with those clubs, seeing as how it would be used on viney in any case. It would have to be arranged before draft day and agreed to in principle but i cant see how it wouldnt happen as it offers greater benefit to GCS and GWS.

Plus it suits what people have been begging for in a more mature player with some years in the system, and now it looks like it matches the GCS need to shed a few players from its list.

My thinking is something along these lines.

Trade pick 3 to GWS

GWS U17 pick 1 to GCS

and player from GCS to Melb

Someone like a caddy who has been spoken about, or a prestia.

It may be a slightly high price on the market for the GCS player but i would hope they would be a better (maybe i should say more likely) prospect than the kid taken at pick 20 something this year. Plus they are ready to go with lots of time left in there career.

And its a great deal for GCS and GWS.. certainly more than they would get just by bidding for Viney.

It doesnt just have to be a deal for nothing we can get something great out of it too. Certainly more likely than offering them steak knives not to bid.

Anyway hope it makes some sense. Cheers

I agree with this and I've said it before, there is no benefit to GWS or GC in bidding for Viney, other that the stick it up Melbourne factor.

They will either agree to something like you've said above, or perhaps do a deal with a club above us along the same lines, one who will benefit by having an earlier pick, or take the chance of losing their preferred pick.

Mind you if either club sees us as a future threat they may opt to force our hand.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

The benifit to GWS GC and any other team in bidding is that MFC wont get a pick 3-4 for pick 22, would we want MFC to gift any other club a top 5 pick for basically nothing?

[Dee Fan 3,247]

The benifit to GWS GC and any other team in bidding is that MFC wont get a pick 3-4 for pick 22, would we want MFC to gift any other club a top 5 pick for basically nothing?

I understand that, but there is no direct benefit, it will however benefit the teams that have picks directly after Melbourne. If they make the call and we call their bluff, which I very much doubt we will, they will be taking a hit for the team.

I very much doubt GWS or GC would want to sacrifice the number one draft pick just to stick it up Melbourne and help Port get an earlier pick.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

I understand that, but there is no direct benefit, it will however benefit the teams that have picks directly after Melbourne. If they make the call and we call their bluff, which I very much doubt we will, they will be taking a hit for the team.

I very much doubt GWS or GC would want to sacrifice the number one draft pick just to stick it up Melbourne and help Port get an earlier pick.

It is very hard in that regard, but letting any team gain a top 5 pick for a second rounder is nuts..... that would essentially give us 3 top 5 picks this year and make up some huge ground you would imagine.

on another note, Brodie Grundy the big SA ruckman has been getting great raps lately and i have also heard suggestions he wouldnt be out of questions as a top 5 pick even for us when we need mids he is that dominant a ruckman.

http://www.afl.com.a...75/default.aspx

Edited June 17, 2012 by Jordie_tackles

[rpfc 28,779]

Anyway hope it makes some sense. Cheers

It does.

Olisik came up with one that involved the 17 year olds exclusively but it is similar.

But these deals are attractive to all concerned; we push Viney into the second round, GWS gets Pick 3 incorporated into the 17 year old draft, and GC gets one of the 17 year olds without giving up Pick 2.

They all have a stake and a reason to go ahead with it.

It's game theory but assuming everyone is rational it will work.

Ah, sh!t.

[Guest fitness]

Getting back to the nub of this thread, the order of picks. Don't forget that the AFL could always exercise their option of awarding a discretionary priority pick to whomever they like. Hypothetically if the Suns go through the season winless, its hard to imagine a club having a more compelling case for receiving one... then again you'd like to think it would get judged over a longer period of sustained poor performance, and that perhaps the expansion clubs might be judged differently.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Getting back to the nub of this thread, the order of picks. Don't forget that the AFL could always exercise their option of awarding a discretionary priority pick to whomever they like. Hypothetically if the Suns go through the season winless, its hard to imagine a club having a more compelling case for receiving one... then again you'd like to think it would get judged over a longer period of sustained poor performance, and that perhaps the expansion clubs might be judged differently.

I wonder who that might be?

[beelzebub 23,383]

There is no chance that we will call any club's bluff. 0% Nor should we. It would be a bigger blunder than the enforced Macdonald retirement for an array of reasons

I agree we cant call any bluffs. But we can "organise ' someting. And to hell with theAFLsocalled transparancy as they are SO above rigging anything arent they??

Just need the footy boys to box clever and maybe do a few quiet handshakes !!! I have faith