Hutchy predicts Dees to make Prelim 'or better' in 2011

[rpfc 28,417]

The guy is consistently wrong.

He just wants to create a narrative.

Dees improving. Easy draw. Stalling after a few losses. Bailey under pressure. Craig pissing off Garry by asking him if he will throw his hat into the ring.

Sunrise, sunset.

[H_T 3,047]

Twitter is a goldmine of little factoids!

It was hot & sweaty at Falls.

As for Hutchy. Why the prediction ? Hrmm.

[Supermercado 2,797]

One tweet before he said Phil Hughes would get a ton in the first innings about nine minutes before he got out.

[Fork 'em 6,983]

Just some interesting tweets. Not something to take too seriously, but I like to know how the opposition (or football public in general) regard us.

And this one particularly took my fancy:

@craighutchy think your call on the dees is right on. As a pies supporter they r the only team that genuinely worry me in 2011.

This MoFo should B worried , we've got their overrated number and they know it .

[praha 11,240]

This MoFo should B worried , we've got their overrated number and they know it .

An overrated club with the 2010 premiership cup in their coffers...

[Supermercado 2,797]

This MoFo should B worried , we've got their overrated number and they know it .

How can the championship team be overrated?

[Keyser Söze 0]

How can the championship team be overrated?

Probably when the magpie hordes talk about their resident dynasty.

[The Great One 99 125]

He's just trying to be not as boring and predictable as most other pundits who are loathe to stick their reputations out and play it safe year after year.

Probably true, But his reputation has not got much to lose.

Shame on this thread for making me think about Craig Hutchison. I hate that guy.

[Guest DeesPower]

The guy spends half his life in New york these days.

If you believe him you have a serious case of wishful thinking.

8th place I think would be around the mark for the Dees in 2011.

We are still a very young side with a lot of players who have not proved they can make it at AFL level.

These the reasons he COULD be right

1. Look at the draw-the easiest for the MFC in years;

2. With jurrah going through his first real pre-season, watts likewise, we will have a fit and incredibly potent forward line for the first time since Neita retired;

3. Petterd, Grimes and Davey will be fit and firing;

4. Trengove and scully will be over the pressure of being elite draft picks;

5. The club has had it's best preseason in 10 years; and

6. We now have two mature bodied champion ruckman.

I predict we will all be surprised. I never thought I would say this, but hutch may well be right.

[Grandson of a gun 276]

These the reasons he COULD be right

1. Look at the draw-the easiest for the MFC in years;

2. With jurrah going through his first real pre-season, watts likewise, we will have a fit and incredibly potent forward line for the first time since Neita retired;

3. Petterd, Grimes and Davey will be fit and firing;

4. Trengove and scully will be over the pressure of being elite draft picks;

5. The club has had it's best preseason in 10 years; and

6. We now have two mature bodied champion ruckman.

I predict we will all be surprised. I never thought I would say this, but hutch may well be right.

Love the positivity, but i think a dose of realism is required...

Yes we have a draw that is perceived as easy but we will still drop games we 'shouldn't' because we are a young team who is still learning how to win regularly and play consistently.

The club "always" has its best pre-season and everyone "flying".

We have one great ruckman and another ruckman who could be handy. Remember how long it has been since he played AFL and his body hasn't yet proven it can withstand the workload.

We have an exciting forward line that will get more attention this year as teams start to pay us more respect. Petterd is returning from a really long lay-off and Watts is still developing.

Grimes and Davey were fit and firing this time last year but both got injured- let's face it, injuries will happen and could have a huge impact on our performance through the year.

Let's aim at 10 to 12 wins, possibly a spot around 7-8 on the ladder and let anything else be a bonus. It's Hutchy after all who is saying this...

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

We have an exciting forward line that will get more attention this year as teams start to pay us more respect.

I don't understand this line (it is trotted out with regard to our midfield also) .. the idea that any sides last year were taking it easy against is preposterous, every player tries his nuts off when he steps out onto an AFL field, and every coaching panel does their homework and understands that nearly every match is a two horse race. They would also rather smash a weaker side by as much as possible. You think any defender last year wanted to get beaten by a young Jack Watts?

[jayceebee31 761]

Let's hope his prediction comes true-I in another post believe we can win 14 games- so I feel we are up there in the top bracket of the eight.

[Gooner 9]

I think it's actually a decent possibility.

Here are my reasons:

- teams sometimes have a season when they jump from outside the eight to the top four when they've going though a process of improvement

- we've got a favourable draw

- we don't have many injuries and seem to have had a good pre-season so far

- there are a lot of teams that aren't improving - I would not be surprised to see Geelong or the Western Bulldogs miss the eight

- none of the other teams in the eight with the exception of Freo seem to have enough young talent to improve significantly

If we can sort out some of the structural issues with the forward line, then we've got the potential to make the top four.

[Grandson of a gun 276]

I don't understand this line (it is trotted out with regard to our midfield also) .. the idea that any sides last year were taking it easy against is preposterous, every player tries his nuts off when he steps out onto an AFL field, and every coaching panel does their homework and understands that nearly every match is a two horse race. They would also rather smash a weaker side by as much as possible. You think any defender last year wanted to get beaten by a young Jack Watts?

It is simple C&B. I am not questioning a players desire or effort on the field. Nor their dedication to the team plan. But that is where you have missed the point.

As you say, every coaching panel does their homework, but it is the tasks that are assigned where things alter between good teams and bad.

Take Collingwood for example, they may look at the Melbourne forward line in 2010 and say "ok we back it in that rather than playing tight on our man, we can play zones and run off them, yes they may get a few touches, but allowing Maxwell, Shaw and Harry O to play loose then transforms our ability to attack with more speed and precision."

However, when they play against Geelong, they may tell Shaw that they are prepared to sacrifice his running game for a more close checking game on Stevie J. And Maxwell must stick closer to Mooney because Geelong go through him at every opportunity. Collingwood accept they lose a bit of attacking drive, but that is outweighed by negating Geelong's forward weapons...

As Melbourne improves and our forward line sees more inside 50's the opposition will try to adapt by assigining different, tighter tasks than they do against weaker teams. They may realise that Melbourne's first option is always Watts when coming out of defence and Jurrah when going inside 50. And instead of zoning off, they play tight and ensure they always spoil, forcing Melbourne to change their targets and put them off their game plan. That is what i mean by more attention to our forwards.

That is also how and why teams play a "defensive forward" on players like Shaw, Gilbert, Griffin- to quell the attack and drive that these players provide off half back. Don't be surprised to see someone tag Grimes like that soon.

That was the point of my comment C&B, hopefully it is clearer now.

[Keyser Söze 0]

Until I read the above post I was about to suggest that Grimes would pick up a defensive forward.

On the money.

An advanced concept for some...

[Fork 'em 6,983]

Supermercado, on 04 January 2011 - 03:59 PM, said:

How can the championship team be overrated?

Probably when the magpie hordes talk about their resident dynasty.

Exactly . If you listen to the ferals the next 3 flags are sewn up .

They are an even side with a game plan that has caught many on the hop .

That game plan will now come under more scrutiny from opposition coaches.

IMO we have the talent and speed to beat it and look forward rubbing Malthouses & co's face in it in a final . B)

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

It is simple C&B. I am not questioning a players desire or effort on the field. Nor their dedication to the team plan. But that is where you have missed the point.

As you say, every coaching panel does their homework, but it is the tasks that are assigned where things alter between good teams and bad.

Take Collingwood for example, they may look at the Melbourne forward line in 2010 and say "ok we back it in that rather than playing tight on our man, we can play zones and run off them, yes they may get a few touches, but allowing Maxwell, Shaw and Harry O to play loose then transforms our ability to attack with more speed and precision."

However, when they play against Geelong, they may tell Shaw that they are prepared to sacrifice his running game for a more close checking game on Stevie J. And Maxwell must stick closer to Mooney because Geelong go through him at every opportunity. Collingwood accept they lose a bit of attacking drive, but that is outweighed by negating Geelong's forward weapons...

As Melbourne improves and our forward line sees more inside 50's the opposition will try to adapt by assigining different, tighter tasks than they do against weaker teams. They may realise that Melbourne's first option is always Watts when coming out of defence and Jurrah when going inside 50. And instead of zoning off, they play tight and ensure they always spoil, forcing Melbourne to change their targets and put them off their game plan. That is what i mean by more attention to our forwards.

That is also how and why teams play a "defensive forward" on players like Shaw, Gilbert, Griffin- to quell the attack and drive that these players provide off half back. Don't be surprised to see someone tag Grimes like that soon.

That was the point of my comment C&B, hopefully it is clearer now.

yes, thanks for the explanation, of course you make a fine point. You've acknowledged though that you always (at least to some extent) rob Peter to pay Paul. In your example if they stop playing zones and running off but play tight on their men then they lose a heap of that brilliant, fast entry into the 50 for their forwards to hurt us with, and so if Watts' job has become harder then Frawley's has become easier. Same goes for a midfielder that last year would do as he pleased but this year he has to lockdown Scully. Scully will probably play worse but there won't be a bloke in the opposition touches list with 30 easy possies. I know what you mean though, it will be factor, I just think it is a factor that is a bit overrated.

BTW I certainly don't think we'll play prelims. About 7th is my guess.

[Strawbsodwyer 0]

just a reminder but hutchy is the bloke that predicted that the dockers would finish bottom 4 last year

[GOLF 13]

Top 8 in 2011. Top 4 in 2012. GF in 2013 (Winning?). Window then stays open for 3-4 more years.

Spend 2011 learning to win interstate, to win at Docklands and to beat North. 3-5 extra wins = top 8, not top 4.

[Deeview 0]

Top 8 in 2011. Top 4 in 2012. GF in 2013 (Winning?). Window then stays open for 3-4 more years.

Spend 2011 learning to win interstate, to win at Docklands and to beat North. 3-5 extra wins = top 8, not top 4.

Totally agree with the above 3 objectives, especially winning interstate.

[biggestred 5,086]

i would love to see us get a big scalp - pies, cats or saints. i just think this would give us a lot of confidence going forward, to know we can play and beat the best.

[Demon Rob 2]

Next year is make the finals. 2012 is the premiership. 2013 the world ends so we remain the premiers for ever.

Its all in the plan.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,052]

i would love to see us get a big scalp - pies, cats or saints. i just think this would give us a lot of confidence going forward, to know we can play and beat the best.

Oddly, what I want even more than that is to beat North Melbourne. They've been able to walk all over us in recent seasons and I don't think there is that great a gap between us. For us to take them out would be a big step in the right direction.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Oddly, what I want even more than that is to beat North Melbourne. They've been able to walk all over us in recent seasons and I don't think there is that great a gap between us. For us to take them out would be a big step in the right direction.

They've beaten us the last 8 times on the trot

[Grandson of a gun 276]

Yes North have had the wood on us.

So too have Hawthorn and it would be great to embarrass them the way they have embarrassed us early in the season of recent times.

A win at AAMI park as this is the particular venue that we struggle with the most....The crows would do nicely.

Collingwood on Queens Birthday, Carlton and St Kilda too.

Geelong always beat us up so that'd be nice to reverse.

Continued dominations over Richmond & Essendon. Get back at West Coast for the Dome game in 2010. And the Dockers at Subi too with a Jack Watts goal after the siren.

We owe the dogs one for their escape last year- perhaps with 50 possessions to Scully.

We've tamed the Lions, and would love to rip the heart out of Port in Darwin again.

Teach Gold Coast that they are nothing more than a glorified VFL team and finally another demolition of the Swans should just about do it....

That would be a pretty good season i think...