Going back to basics, however, we must understand that Cloke is the key to all these houses of cards.
If Cloke stays at the filth, he will take up a lot of their cap. Some other very good players may be squeezed out (Wellingham, Goldsack, ...?). In this scenario, we have lots of money (Moloney, Green, Jurrah gone, lots of salaries already paid front loaded) and we should be very active in FA/RFA offers and trading.
If Cloke leaves the filth, he will either come to us or go to some other club.
If he goes to some other club then they will have a salary cap issue and may even have one or two players squeezed out. Much like the "stay at the filth" scenario, but different players available.
If he comes to us he will take up a lot of our spare cap money. We will have a 2nd top tall forward, but won't be able to be so active in FA/RFA or trade. Will need to rely on drafting and fringe trades.
So we should be looking at all three scenarions - different players, available by different mechanisms, under each scenario.