Jack Watts out of contract at the end of the year

[Jaded No More 68,855]

What else are we supposed to talk about?

Hey, if you enjoy flogging a dead horse, go for it.

As I said, there is a reason why I no longer moderate. I can't be bothered dealing with this sort of thing, and I admire the mods who can.

What exactly has changed from last week's Watts thread? or from the one the previous week? It's just the same stuff in different wrapping.

The same people come out and bag him, and the same people come out in defence of him, citing his age, experience, physical development, lack of pre-season and so forth. I feel like it's groundhog day!

[Steamin Demon 392]

Never said it was you. It was a response to some of the thought provoking dregs that came forth

Do you think the Club would invest a No 1 pick in Watts and allow him to woops slip to GC? Now think about it. Seriously.

Rhino, I suggest a read of the Code of Conduct is in order. Keep your personal attacks to yourself, Being a Mod and all.

[warren dean 193]

Don't want to start a new thread on Watts but I think this puts his performances into some perspective, especially bearing in mind that he has played in the forwardline for all 9 senior games and in only one win:

JW - 2009 3 games Ave 9 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals; 2010 6 games Ave 11.2 disposals, 3.3 marks, 4 goals.

Laclan Hansen - 2007 3 games, Ave 6 disposals, 2 marks, 0 goals; 2008 10 games Ave 13.3 disposals, 5.3 marks, 4 goals

Josh Kennedy - 2006 9 games Ave 5.8 disposals, 3.6 marks, 5 goals; 2007 13 games Ave 7.5 disposals, 3.8 marks, 6 goals

Travis Cloke - 2005 15 games, Ave 9.9 disposals, 3.5 marks, 10 goals

Jonathon Brown - 2000 13 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 3.6 marks, 5 goals

Nick Riewoldt - 2001 6 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 4.3 marks 2 goals

Matthew Pavlich - 2000 18 games, Ave 12.1 disposals, 4.3 marks, 14 goals

Justin Koschitzke - 2001 20 games, Ave 11.6 disposals, 4.5 marks, 2 goals (Rising Star winner)

David Schwarz - 1991 6 games, Ave 9.2 disposals, 2.7 marks, 7 goals

Scott Gumbleton - 2010 13 games 10.2 disposals, 4.9 marks, 16 goals.

Disposals and marks are averages goals are total per season.

As you can see there is nothing much to be concerned about with Watts. Statistically he is on a par with most high draft picks who are KPP's. Playing forward line in a team that isn't much good is hard work even for established players. He'll get there.

Edited June 28, 2010 by warren dean

[Green Machine 63]

Don't want to start a new thread on Watts but I think this puts his performances into some perspective, especially bearing in mind that he has played in the forwardline for all 9 senior games and in only one win:

JW - 2009 3 games Ave 9 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals; 2010 6 games Ave 11.2 disposals, 3.3 marks, 4 goals.

Laclan Hansen - 2007 3 games, Ave 6 disposals, 2 marks, 0 goals; 2008 10 games Ave 13.3 disposals, 5.3 marks, 4 goals

Josh Kennedy - 2006 9 games Ave 5.8 disposals, 3.6 marks, 5 goals; 2007 13 games Ave 7.5 disposals, 3.8 marks, 6 goals

Travis Cloke - 2005 15 games, Ave 9.9 disposals, 3.5 marks, 10 goals

Jonathon Brown - 2000 13 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 3.6 marks, 2 goals

Nick Riewoldt - 2001 6 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 4.3 marks 2 goals

Matthew Pavlich - 2000 18 games, Ave 12.1 disposals, 4.3 marks, 14 goals

Justin Koschitzke - 2001 20 games, Ave 11.6 disposals, 4.5 marks, 2 goals (Rising Star winner)

David Schwarz - 1991 6 games, Ave 9.2 disposals, 2.7 marks, 7 goals

Scott Gumbleton - 2010 13 games 10.2 disposals, 4.9 marks, 16 goals.

Disposals and marks are averages goals are total per season.

As you can see there is nothing much to be concerned about with Watts. Statistically he is on a par with most high draft picks who are KPP's. Playing forward line in a team that isn't much good is hard work even for established players. He'll get there.

Good work.

I honestly feel more confident about Watts now.

[Red Sox 2]

Don't want to start a new thread on Watts but I think this puts his performances into some perspective, especially bearing in mind that he has played in the forwardline for all 9 senior games and in only one win:

JW - 2009 3 games Ave 9 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals; 2010 6 games Ave 11.2 disposals, 3.3 marks, 4 goals.

Laclan Hansen - 2007 3 games, Ave 6 disposals, 2 marks, 0 goals; 2008 10 games Ave 13.3 disposals, 5.3 marks, 4 goals

Josh Kennedy - 2006 9 games Ave 5.8 disposals, 3.6 marks, 5 goals; 2007 13 games Ave 7.5 disposals, 3.8 marks, 6 goals

Travis Cloke - 2005 15 games, Ave 9.9 disposals, 3.5 marks, 10 goals

Jonathon Brown - 2000 13 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 3.6 marks, 2 goals

Nick Riewoldt - 2001 6 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 4.3 marks 2 goals

Matthew Pavlich - 2000 18 games, Ave 12.1 disposals, 4.3 marks, 14 goals

Justin Koschitzke - 2001 20 games, Ave 11.6 disposals, 4.5 marks, 2 goals (Rising Star winner)

David Schwarz - 1991 6 games, Ave 9.2 disposals, 2.7 marks, 7 goals

Scott Gumbleton - 2010 13 games 10.2 disposals, 4.9 marks, 16 goals.

Disposals and marks are averages goals are total per season.

As you can see there is nothing much to be concerned about with Watts. Statistically he is on a par with most high draft picks who are KPP's. Playing forward line in a team that isn't much good is hard work even for established players. He'll get there.

Yeah I like it....especially coming from you Warren Dean...now there was a guy that was cruelled by injury. I loved Warren Dean in 87, a great finals series...memories!!

[old dee 23,704]

Good work.

I honestly feel more confident about Watts now.

So he is a gun next year right?

God I hope you are right, the crap I get from friends is getting hard to take.

Still think he should play for Casey next weekend.

[Green Machine 63]

So he is a gun next year right?

God I hope you are right, the crap I get from friends is getting hard to take.

Still think he should play for Casey next weekend.

I dont think he will be a gun next year, just looking at all the stats about the other KPF in the comp when they were starting off, Jack Watts is performing the same as most of them were early in there careers.

[Hannabal 4]

Don't want to start a new thread on Watts but I think this puts his performances into some perspective, especially bearing in mind that he has played in the forwardline for all 9 senior games and in only one win:

JW - 2009 3 games Ave 9 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals; 2010 6 games Ave 11.2 disposals, 3.3 marks, 4 goals...

You could have included Jack Riewoldt.

I don't think that many would be concerned by his raw stats, more the fact that he is so far out of his depth and well behind the intensity of AFL footy. I've been more concerned by some of the relatively easy marks I expected someone of his talent to jag - especially the one against Collingwood where Bate set him up beautifully running towards goal.

I look forward to having a look at him next year with another 6 or 7 kilos.

[Felix 92]

I dont think he will be a gun next year, just looking at all the stats about the other KPF in the comp when they were starting off, Jack Watts is performing the same as most of them were early in there careers.

Stats mean nothing when speaking about Jack Watts I mean Jesus, no wait God, wait wait wait, who is this man we speak of?

[warren dean 193]

You could have included Jack Riewoldt.

I don't think that many would be concerned by his raw stats, more the fact that he is so far out of his depth and well behind the intensity of AFL footy. I've been more concerned by some of the relatively easy marks I expected someone of his talent to jag - especially the one against Collingwood where Bate set him up beautifully running towards goal.

I look forward to having a look at him next year with another 6 or 7 kilos.

Yep I could have but I was more interested the very top end draft picks or guys who would have been but for f/s. I know you are a keen student of the game so you would recall how out of their depth many of these guys looked early on as well.

[demoniac 1,330]

What game where you watching? His ball use when he had time was timid. I can remember plenty of times short passes did not have enough weight; a handball to a running player with space was behind the player.

At this stage, Watts doesn't hit a marking contest with any purpose or confidence. His saving grace to me is that in medium traffic, his instinctive hands are quick and precise. Instinctive is the important word here - he does not play instinctively.

The 2008 draft will be a good talking point in time:

1. Watts has turned into a project player

2. Nataunui is also a project player - reminds me of an NRL player trying to learn the game

3. Rich may well have played his best year in his first year

4. The best players from it are currently a couple of very lightly framed mids

Jack Watts has not turned into a project player he was drafted as a project player.

[GRUN DEE 69]

everytime i saw him on tv he was falling over :\

so did the other players but every week he plays he falls over, he doesn't seem to be able to stand up

I think we have several players who need to change there boots!

Watts and Scully to name two.

[Jarka 767]

It's 100% his core strength.

I thought that was blatantly obvious; it confuses me as to why more people don't understand this.

It's why, as a general rule, I don't participate in this "keeping your feet" threads.

It is a non-issue.

Very astute Enforcer and I'm amazed that your post has been ignored.

I'm currently training for an ironman triathlon and a big part of my sessions are geared around building my core strength, and it's not until now that I realise how much work is needed to do it effectively. Looking at Watts when he joined Melbourne it's also not hard to realise that his core strength was seriously lacking, it also explains why he's having difficulties holding his ground against the bigger guys. Next year with a more solid frame and greater core strength he'll be much better.

Having said that I'm still slightly disappointed in his performance halfway through his second year. Not so much the number of touches he's averaging, that doesn't bother me at all, just the way he looks out on the ground. Should you take a development player with the first pick? That's a question for another time but it's still a fair question to ask, but I'm still in the half glass full camp with Watts.

This kid is also obviously down on confidence.

[Jaded No More 68,855]

This kid is also obviously down on confidence.

And that's a really important point as well.

As I said before, he has played in 1 win, which was by a solitary point in terrible conditions against Port.

So he hasn't had the chance to get really quality service from the mids, and has struggles playing in some terribly poor games (and some where we played well, let's not deny that). What he desperately needs is one really good game from our team to allow himself to have a mini breakout game where he takes maybe half a dozen good marks and kicks 3 goals.

Even as a side, you can see how important confidence is. Our young players tend to take the game on a lot more when we are leading, or when the game is going our way, and Watts would be no different.

He must be carrying an enormous amount of expectations around, and the burden of watching other high picks dominating so early on in their careers must only make it worse.

That's why I loath these Watts threads, because they seem to beat up on a kid who I'm sure already beats himself up enough.

And btw, he looks no more lost or lacking in intensity than Frawley or Garland did at the same stage of their career.

[Red Sox 2]

Very astute Enforcer and I'm amazed that your post has been ignored.

I'm currently training for an ironman triathlon and a big part of my sessions are geared around building my core strength, and it's not until now that I realise how much work is needed to do it effectively. Looking at Watts when he joined Melbourne it's also not hard to realise that his core strength was seriously lacking, it also explains why he's having difficulties holding his ground against the bigger guys. Next year with a more solid frame and greater core strength he'll be much better.

Having said that I'm still slightly disappointed in his performance halfway through his second year. Not so much the number of touches he's averaging, that doesn't bother me at all, just the way he looks out on the ground. Should you take a development player with the first pick? That's a question for another time but it's still a fair question to ask, but I'm still in the half glass full camp with Watts.

This kid is also obviously down on confidence.

I don't think it's a case of being a 'development' or 'project' player as such. More that for the most part these kids simply take time to develop full stop. It seems to be even more pronounced among tall players and I guess without professing to be any sort of professional that it may have to do with the fact these kids are still growing into their entire bodies & developing core strength as suggested above. Midfield types are a lot closer to having developed bodies and can also slip into a team amongst a group of similar types. Talls as key position players are more of a single focus but still carry the same expectations as the midfielders where it probably cant be expected.

Nic Naitanui is in the exact same category yet has shown some 'flashes' that are enough for people to start to label him as a certain label, be it a 'new pioneer of the game' or such along those lines.

Jack Watts of course is being labeled at the other end of the spectrum.

It was interesting watching Brendon Goddard on, On the Couch tonight. It was discussed how he was very much maligned early in his career. Today he is probably in the best 5 players in the game along with those mentioned in the post above. They all are different players and devloped at different rates.

I've got no doubt Jack will grow and develop at his own rate and be a star for the Melbourne footy club. Yeah it's frustrating watching when he slips over, but when that stops even using the Adelaide game as an example, he would have a possession count close to 20 and 6-10 marks rather than just 15 and 5. Not bad stats from a key forward who's team manages only 29 inside 50 entries for the day.

Hopefully a break out game is not far away...but no matter how far, it will happen for him.

Edited June 28, 2010 by Demon Jack 16

[nomed 113]

He must be carrying an enormous amount of expectations around, and the burden of watching other high picks dominating so early on in their careers must only make it worse.

That's why I loath these Watts threads, because they seem to beat up on a kid who I'm sure already beats himself up enough.

Is he the "Geoff Hayward" of our club?

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

Don't want to start a new thread on Watts but I think this puts his performances into some perspective, especially bearing in mind that he has played in the forwardline for all 9 senior games and in only one win:

JW - 2009 3 games Ave 9 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals; 2010 6 games Ave 11.2 disposals, 3.3 marks, 4 goals.

Laclan Hansen - 2007 3 games, Ave 6 disposals, 2 marks, 0 goals; 2008 10 games Ave 13.3 disposals, 5.3 marks, 4 goals

Josh Kennedy - 2006 9 games Ave 5.8 disposals, 3.6 marks, 5 goals; 2007 13 games Ave 7.5 disposals, 3.8 marks, 6 goals

Travis Cloke - 2005 15 games, Ave 9.9 disposals, 3.5 marks, 10 goals

Jonathon Brown - 2000 13 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 3.6 marks, 5 goals

Nick Riewoldt - 2001 6 games, Ave 9.5 disposals, 4.3 marks 2 goals

Matthew Pavlich - 2000 18 games, Ave 12.1 disposals, 4.3 marks, 14 goals

Justin Koschitzke - 2001 20 games, Ave 11.6 disposals, 4.5 marks, 2 goals (Rising Star winner)

David Schwarz - 1991 6 games, Ave 9.2 disposals, 2.7 marks, 7 goals

Scott Gumbleton - 2010 13 games 10.2 disposals, 4.9 marks, 16 goals.

Disposals and marks are averages goals are total per season.

As you can see there is nothing much to be concerned about with Watts. Statistically he is on a par with most high draft picks who are KPP's. Playing forward line in a team that isn't much good is hard work even for established players. He'll get there.

What is worth noting from these comparisons with other high-drafted KPFs is that Koschitzke won the rising star but has since been gone on to become only a serviceable forward/ruck and been easily eclipsed by Riewoldt. Obviously injuries and other factors are involved but it does give me some heart that Watts will develop to at least become a solid if not a dominating forward in the future.

[e25 5]

Very astute Enforcer and I'm amazed that your post has been ignored.

I'm currently training for an ironman triathlon and a big part of my sessions are geared around building my core strength, and it's not until now that I realise how much work is needed to do it effectively. Looking at Watts when he joined Melbourne it's also not hard to realise that his core strength was seriously lacking, it also explains why he's having difficulties holding his ground against the bigger guys. Next year with a more solid frame and greater core strength he'll be much better.

Having said that I'm still slightly disappointed in his performance halfway through his second year. Not so much the number of touches he's averaging, that doesn't bother me at all, just the way he looks out on the ground. Should you take a development player with the first pick? That's a question for another time but it's still a fair question to ask, but I'm still in the half glass full camp with Watts.

This kid is also obviously down on confidence.

Cheers Jarka.

I guess you've just made me realize why I put so much importance on having a strong core.

I never did until I built up my own and I now know how much of a difference it makes for my running and my footy.

[beelzebub 23,312]

..................

It was interesting watching Brendon Goddard on, On the Couch tonight. It was discussed how he was very much maligned early in his career. Today he is probably in the best 5 players in the game along with those mentioned in the post above. They all are different players and devloped at different rates.

.............

very interesting example in Goddard..heres a guy who always had ability but seems to never quite produce to it. Many on here wouldnt have rated him as much a few years back. Can remember watchig him playing for the Scorps and he wasnt setting the world on fire. fast forward ..and hes now hitting his straps. And so will some of our guys...with time , development and experience.

[jnrmac 20,053]

Alot of players slipped over yesterday. Are you going to throw criticism at Scully too? What about McKenzie? What about Jones?

Yep happy to criticise them for a schoolboy error.

Watts though fell over at least a dozen times against Carlton though and should have learned his lesson. And if not someone should be telling these guys what to wear.

"Hey Jack (and others) its important you keep your feet so if you wear the moulded soles and fall over you will be dragged to go and change them"

It ain't rocket science.

[Hannabal 4]

you would recall how out of their depth many of these guys looked early on as well.

Of course it's all relative, but I don't remember other key forwards looking so far out of their depth as Jack, which is why I'm not taking much notice of the raw stats you provided. It's understandable to an extent when one considers he's come from playing school footy 2 years ago to the top grade now. We're trying to get games into Watts to fast track his development, where as players that may have been at a similar level simply stayed in the VFL, such as Jarrad Grant, who played no games in his first year and only one in his second.

Nick Riewoldt was terrific in his second year and Jono Brown was holding down CHF in a premiership team kicking 38 goals. So you'll understand if I don't take too much notice of the stats provided.

Everyone likes to say that in reality this is Watts' first year and that he's yet to do a full preseason. I can run with this for two reasons; a) it's true and B) I'm a Melb. supporter and have been used to making excuses for players for 30 years. But in reality, I'll really want to see some signs that Watts has the potential to be a "star" in 2011 - his third year. Some of the reasons that have been provided by other posters as to why Jack is still some way from finding his feet are valid, but I also know that the key forwards who have ultimately become genuine "stars of the competition" have been really good players by the time they were 20. Watts turns 20 early next season. If you go through them all you'll understand the significance.

I saw Watts play numerous times in the flesh when he was still playing juniors. Perhaps I was seduced by his height, pace, agility, clean hands, beautiful kicking off both sides, decision making, etc, and just thought that it would seamlessly translate to the AFL once he found his feet. I mean, he's a beautiful looking footballer. But there are intangible ingredients that make up the composition of a 'star', and I may have pulled the trigger too early in my estimations. From what I've seen, there are no guarantees Watts will become a 'star'. At worst I think he'll become a good AFL player, but that will be a big disappointment to me. The club needed a bona fide 'star' when they drafted him. I hope he delivers.

[warren dean 193]

Of course it's all relative, but I don't remember other key forwards looking so far out of their depth as Jack, which is why I'm not taking much notice of the raw stats you provided. It's understandable to an extent when one considers he's come from playing school footy 2 years ago to the top grade now. We're trying to get games into Watts to fast track his development, where as players that may have been at a similar level simply stayed in the VFL, such as Jarrad Grant, who played no games in his first year and only one in his second.

Nick Riewoldt was terrific in his second year and Jono Brown was holding down CHF in a premiership team kicking 38 goals. So you'll understand if I don't take too much notice of the stats provided.

Everyone likes to say that in reality this is Watts' first year and that he's yet to do a full preseason. I can run with this for two reasons; a) it's true and B) I'm a Melb. supporter and have been used to making excuses for players for 30 years. But in reality, I'll really want to see some signs that Watts has the potential to be a "star" in 2011 - his third year. Some of the reasons that have been provided by other posters as to why Jack is still some way from finding his feet are valid, but I also know that the key forwards who have ultimately become genuine "stars of the competition" have been really good players by the time they were 20. Watts turns 20 early next season. If you go through them all you'll understand the significance.

I saw Watts play numerous times in the flesh when he was still playing juniors. Perhaps I was seduced by his height, pace, agility, clean hands, beautiful kicking off both sides, decision making, etc, and just thought that it would seamlessly translate to the AFL once he found his feet. I mean, he's a beautiful looking footballer. But there are intangible ingredients that make up the composition of a 'star', and I may have pulled the trigger too early in my estimations. From what I've seen, there are no guarantees Watts will become a 'star'. At worst I think he'll become a good AFL player, but that will be a big disappointment to me. The club needed a bona fide 'star' when they drafted him. I hope he delivers.

You make good points, but as you point out Wattsy was a schoolboy footballer when drafted. The comparisons I was trying to make re stats was more about games played than seasons, but I take your point about preseasons. Brown in 2000 played in a very good team and was carried for much of it, after playing against men. In 2001 he played in an exceptional team with other big strong bodies (Bradshaw and Lynch) around him and a brilliant mid-field. Watts will never have that luxury - well not as a 20 year old anyway. Like you, I believe he will at least be a very good player. And like others have mentioned here, he doesn't look any more out of place than guys like Frawley and Garland did early on. The difference is,of course, he went number 1. You, like me were a very keen for the Dees to take him 1 at the time. With a couple of years to reflect would you go for anyone else now? I think Hill currently looks the best from the 2008 draft, but I'd still take Jack.

Edited June 29, 2010 by warren dean

[Hannabal 4]

With a couple of years to reflect would you go for anyone else now? I think Hill currently looks the best from the 2008 draft, but I'd still take Jack.

It's a difficult question as I still harbour hopes for Watts becoming the forward we craved.

I knew Rich would be plug and play and liked the look of Hill, although the latter has come on quicker than I anticipated. Rich gets a bit of a bum wrap, imo. That left foot is exquisite and arguably the best I've seen.

I still wouldn't take Naitanui and I reckon Hurley has been overrated.

So, on exposed form I'd say Rich and Hill would tempt me.

Btw, you're falling into the trap of making excuses about why 'stars' were 'stars'. I believe that 'stars' are 'stars' because they're 'stars'. Go back and review the careers of Lockett, Brereton, Dunstall, Lloyd, Carey, Franklin, Riewoldt, Kernahan and tell me how good they were at 20/21.

[warren dean 193]

It's a difficult question as I still harbour hopes for Watts becoming the forward we craved.

I knew Rich would be plug and play and liked the look of Hill, although the latter has come on quicker than I anticipated. Rich gets a bit of a bum wrap, imo. That left foot is exquisite and arguably the best I've seen.

I still wouldn't take Naitanui and I reckon Hurley has been overrated.

So, on exposed form I'd say Rich and Hill would tempt me.

Btw, you're falling into the trap of making excuses about why 'stars' were 'stars'. I believe that 'stars' are 'stars' because they're 'stars'. Go back and review the careers of Lockett, Brereton, Dunstall, Lloyd, Carey, Franklin, Riewoldt, Kernahan and tell me how good they were at 20/21.

Don't know about Rich, mainly on a perceived level of improvement scale, but certainly agree on Hurley and NicNat. Probably unfair to include Kernahan in those listed above as he didn't move to Carlton until he was 22 and was already established playing against men in the SANFL. Dunstall was also a bit older as well, and didn't do heaps in 1985.Franklin was reasonable in his first year and then blossomed around 2007. John Longmire was more highly regarded than Carey early on (98 goals when he was 19). Lockett started in 1983 won the Brownlow at 21 and kicked his first ton in the same season (1987). Stewie Loewe was a handy chop out for him early on too. Brereton started in late 1982 (a couple of finals - one was great the other much less so) and was a handy player in 1983/84 before really blossoming in 1985 (again at 21). Riewoldt had a really good second year. Carey debuted in 1989 and was a self-confessed slow starter in his recent book. He really came to note in 1992. Lloyd started at 16/17 in 1995 and by 1996 was established but inconsistent. Watts still has time. What he doesn't have is another big body to help ease him in. Kernahan had Maclure in 1986. Brereton had Moncrieff, Matthews and Peter Knights. Lloyd had Salmon and later on Lucas. Carey and Longmire worked well together and had guys like Donald McDonald providing protection. There are no guarantees on Watts becoming a star, but he also has no opportunity to slip under the radar as some of those others had early in their careers. Like you I'm still hopeful on Watts and I still believe he can get there. We just need to be a bit more patient.

[Hannabal 4]

Don't know about Rich, mainly on a perceived level of improvement scale, but certainly agree on Hurley and NicNat. Probably unfair to include Kernahan in those listed above as he didn't move to Carlton until he was 22 and was already established playing against men in the SANFL. Dunstall was also a bit older as well, and didn't do heaps in 1985.Franklin was reasonable in his first year and then blossomed around 2007. John Longmire was more highly regarded than Carey early on (98 goals when he was 19). Lockett started in 1983 won the Brownlow at 21 and kicked his first ton in the same season (1987). Stewie Loewe was a handy chop out for him early on too. Brereton started in late 1982 (a couple of finals - one was great the other much less so) and was a handy player in 1983/84 before really blossoming in 1985 (again at 21). Riewoldt had a really good second year. Carey debuted in 1989 and was a self-confessed slow starter in his recent book. He really came to note in 1992. Lloyd started at 16/17 in 1995 and by 1996 was established but inconsistent. Watts still has time. What he doesn't have is another big body to help ease him in. Kernahan had Maclure in 1986. Brereton had Moncrieff, Matthews and Peter Knights. Lloyd had Salmon and later on Lucas. Carey and Longmire worked well together and had guys like Donald McDonald providing protection. There are no guarantees on Watts becoming a star, but he also has no opportunity to slip under the radar as some of those others had early in their careers. Like you I'm still hopeful on Watts and I still believe he can get there. We just need to be a bit more patient.

Kernahan being established by 22 is exactly my point. He was a star at 19 in the SANFL and kicked 10 in a match winning display for SA against the Vics, before making the cross to Carlton the following year. He won Glenelg's B&F in 1983 at 19, and followed it up winning in 1984 and 1985 - 3 straight. He topped the Magarey Medal as a 19 year old in 1983, but was ineligible to win it. What a pity he didn't have McLure as a chop out while he was in SA.

Dunstall was a really good player at 21 kicking 77 goals.

At 18 Lockett kicked 77 goals and followed it up with 79 at 19.

Carey kicked 39 goals from CHF as a 19 year old, including a bag of 7 - 8 marks and 22 possessions. In that year as a 19 year old Carey represented NSW in State of Origin and came runner up in the B&F. So Carey can talk all he likes about his slow start, but he was very much a key player at 19 - his second year.

Lloyd kicked 63 goals as a 19 year old. By the time he was 22 ke kicked 100.

Franklin kicked 100 goals as a 21 year old.

Brereton kicked 50 goals from CHF as a 20 year old in 1984. He was aggressive towards the footy from the beginning.

As far as chop outs go, Kernahan would have been as good without McLure, Brereton as good with Gladys, Carey as good without Longmire, and Lloyd without Salmon and Lucas. They were stars because they were stars. There would have been other players fill the breach. Stop looking at excuses and just acknowledge the quality of those players at a young age.

The facts are that all of those players were stars, or well on the way, by the age of 20/21; some earlier. Watts will be rewriting the record books if it takes him until the age of 23 to show the signs that the others showed at a much earlier age. Watts will be 20 for the bulk of 2011 and 21 for 2012. I hope that in that time he shows enough to suggest that he's an AFL star in the making. If he doesn't he won't become one.

Next year is pivotal. Or, we can just keep making excuses.