Stakka from Demonology talks sense

[2014-Flag 0]

The Above Post is all very well & Good and i do not question the Figures, but for this club to be "Building" for the next 5 seasons meanwhile 2 new clubs are introduced & Free Agency takes hold-It is a fairytale. Wake up People.

We have got to play above ourselves in order to survive, otherwise just like fitzroy all our good players will be bought out.

Do not think it won't happen...it will. The Free Agency decision has changed the Rules.

Whoever decided that we did not need to start the"Big Rebuild" after the 2006 season can maybe take a piece of blame for what it is worth, that's a major reason for the average age and game time of our current list.

But if this club is to survive because of what is now ocuring, The list has to play above itself & the Football Department has to coach better than it has ever done before- who cared how old the Fitzroy list was at the end of 1996? Nobody.

Excuses will not cut it-we must get used to that.

Yes the post was interesting for the Stats - it tells us what we already know - we are a young side, and given our access to early draft picks over the last three years, we should be closer to the Hawthorn example than the Cats. But we are not because of how we have recruited. Hawthorn recruited in their early drafts two dominant tall forwards - Roughhead and Franklin, both dominated the GF 08. They also had a number one draft pick from 5 years before, Luke Hodge, a medium sized player with superb skills who complemented those two talls superbly. We traded our only older no. 1 draft pick, Travis Johnstone, who in many ways plays a similar role to Hodge, with wonderful delivery and skills. We have no-one equivalent to Johnstone on our list of similar age and skill.

As far as dominant forwards are concerned we have Watts who I am sure will develop into a superstar but not yet, and may well be better than either of the Hawks. But we don't have two of them. Fitzpatrick is young and raw, and Jurrah is an entirely different sort of player who in my opinion would be very important as a third mobile tall like say Robbo, except faster and possibly more skillful.In the meantime, our best option is to rest the Russian and PJ up forward as tall marking targets.

As you can see from my name, I believe a flag in 2014 is our destiny, so who am i to question the thrust of these entries. But I do take counsel from the warnings we may not have that time. We need to show continuous progress and be competing for the 8 in one to two years. My alarm about our first two outings this year is that we seemed weaker than any MFC team I have ever watched, and i've been watching them for 40 years. My faith in progress to 2014 has taken a severe pounding over the last two weeks.

[2014-Flag 0]

I read this thread on Demonland and thought-- what a well written thought provoking argument for negative persons. I for one am not negative, I am realistic. Read my threads since joining in September 2009.I originally posted saying we needed another tall forward. Temel or someone like him made for football now -I thought it would help.Actually I agree with Stakka with the majority of what he says. I have been questioning in my posts other factors.I also placed a post saying I thought Bails would get another year. I still think even with this very young inexperienced out fit that we can win 7 games.This is what I stated many months ago. However it is the ending of the preseason that is definately worrying me. The young ones- in particular Scully will have to be nursed very carefully. Even more so with regards to Watts last year- do not forget he only started training early this year.Even last years , the year before recruits will basically take another couple of years. However, I would have thought,even with our current injuries we would have shown something more than the lack lustre and unskillful first quarter of our match against Freo.Anyhow, back to Stakka- well presented, well adapted which may also make some dreamers realise we are not just going to turn up and win a premiership in a year or two.Playing Fitzpatrick first up shows that we are not ready yet.Also when we get our full list available we will improve well-I think we will play well mid season to late in the season.And maybe a win in October in China.That's positive isn't it ROOST IT.And whilst you think I am a doubter Roost it- have a look at another Demonolgy site to look at how our memberships have decreased against other clubs over the last few weeks

nick48 Posted on Tue 02/03/10 23:18:28

Member #

Date joined

Posts

2131

08/12/2006

3427

just to start the month off.

L/Y

WESTCOAST 54,074 50,000

Collingw&%$ 45,954 46,126

HAWTHORN 52,496 44,874

ESSENDON 40,634 33,576

stKILDA 33,522 31,414

CARLTON 43,294 30,563

RICHMOND 29,379

GEELONG 28,773

FOOTSCRAY 23,693

portADELAIDE 23,428

MELBOURNE 22,844

BRISBANE 26,324 22,388

nthMELBOURNE 26,121 18,806

SYDNEY 26,269

Here here Jayceebee31. One of the most realistic and thoughtful posts i have seen on here. Bring a welcome sense of realism to the table.

[DirtyDees DDC 176]

My alarm about our first two outings this year is that we seemed weaker than any MFC team I have ever watched, and i've been watching them for 40 years. My faith in progress to 2014 has taken a severe pounding over the last two weeks.

I was disappointed too, especially after the Freo game, but don't read too much into the first two weeks. We selected players such as Fitzpatrick and Strauss who may not see a lot of senior footy this year. Let's see what happens in the final pre-season game.

I don't mind playing Hawthorn first up if Burgoyne's injury reports are correct. The could be without the killer 'B's on March 27, with Bateman and Buddy also suspended.

[Weedster 174]

North and Ess appear to have exciting game plans with young players. They are going to get flogged every now and then. One would expect inconsistency.

:

:

But one also would expect that every now and them we play a recognisable game plan that produces more than 12 wins in 3 years.

:

:

I hold the opinion that our players are hearing the company line " we are a young team that's building" AND consequently not performing up to their capability as a team instead of the Voss or Scott line "we may have a young side but we expect to be competitive".

People we have won 7 games in 2 years. IF we were competing well then the actual win/loss ratio would not be so important. It's how we are losing that is frightening.

And I make the point about tackling, chasing, running, hitting targets from 20m, defending kick-ins, centre square set-ups etc - these things don't necessarily depend on number of games played, experience etc. It's about attitude, basic skills and accountability. You don't need to be elite to do most of those things.

Apologies for quoting you selectively but I agree totally with these points. I don't think anyone is expecting miracles yet but the excuses come a little too readily. The positive outlooks of rookie coaches - Scott, Voss, Knights & even Hardwick - provide a stark contrast to our gently gently be patient blah blah. And please don't say they inherited better sides - FFS DB has now been guiding the ship for 3 drafts now - time for some to take the next step - list management and strategy is now clearly his, and his alone - talk of 5 year plans has Terry Wallace all over it

[2014-Flag 0]

Here's an exercise in damned lies and statistics for you. I have a different opinion about the results.

Comparing our side with the Grand Finalists is always going to accentuate a point. We are nowhere near there (and of course no-one is saying that we are). So for us to win a GF we will need to have a list that is around where Stakka highlighted we should be. That theory has been around largely since Mick Malthouse's 'Premiership Clock' which Daniher also tried to model our side around. It doesn't give a true picture of what we should be achieving now with our list where it is at. North and Ess appear to have exciting game plans with young players. They are going to get flogged every now and then. One would expect inconsistency.

But one also would expect that every now and them we play a recognisable game plan that produces more than 12 wins in 3 years.

But I digress. Since Stakka noted that the 08 Hawks were a bit of an exception I took the trouble to download the official AFL team lists for the START of 08 (which would make a fair comparison to the Dees at the start of 2010). I think Stakka may have used the stats from the end of 08 and it makes a whole lot of difference:

His stats for the Hawks were:

Age 24yr 7mth

Games 87.0

Less than 50 4

50 to 99 3

100 to 149 9

150 or more 6

Their Grand Final team at the START of 08 shows:

Age 24yrs 1 mth

Games 76.3 (without Crawf as Stakka omitted Junior)

Less than 50 6

50 to 99 10

100 to 150 3

150 or more 3

There is now only a minor difference in the Dees of 2010 and the hawks at the start of 2008. In particular 16 players less than 100 games compares to our 18. And they won a flag with that team!

I hold the opinion that our players are hearing the company line " we are a young team that's building" AND consequently not performing up to their capability as a team instead of the Voss or Scott line "we may have a young side but we expect to be competitive".

People we have won 7 games in 2 years. IF we were competing well then the actual win/loss ratio would not be so important. It's how we are losing that is frightening.

And I make the point about tackling, chasing, running, hitting targets from 20m, defending kick-ins, centre square set-ups etc - these things don't necessarily depend on number of games played, experience etc. It's about attitude, basic skills and accountability. You don't need to be elite to do most of those things.

You are spot on Jnrmac. The Hawks example is illuminating. See my earlier post comparing the Hawks side to ours. They took a very different approach to recruiting.

I too have a real problem with the way we play the game and frankly a lot of it can be put down to lack of discipline and poor coaching. Your examples: tackling, chasing, running, hitting targets from 20m, defending kick-ins, centre square set-ups etc are mostly in my opinion more to do with those two things than basic lack of ability. Last saturday the lack of chasing, and poorly executed set plays eg kicking in after points scored so many times went astray. That would not happen in a well disciplined unit. We are a long way from the Hawks of 2008. We should be a lot closer.

[jayceebee31 760]

And where is Temel now ?

Hi HT-- I expected someone to rip me apart re this point. I made the point that I even make mistakes. Still I hope he succeeds.I still think we need another tall forward with a frame like his or Hawkins. I here Temel may be playing with Coburg.By the way was you impressed with Fitzpatricks first game at NAB level. I am sure Temel could have done equally well.I watched all the NAB finals that I recorded and I still think Temel would have been great for us.But you maybe right- we may not have had the staff to get him right- re fitness after our collapse against Essendon.And he needed it. I went and had a look at the rookie Daw at North last week - he will make it.And overall, I know you would like TEMEL to make it somewhere.Even with Oak Park or somewhere like it.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

I can`t believe the doomsayers arrived after 2 NAB Cup games. Sharpen your pencils boys, you can expect another loss against Adelaide that must have you salivating in anticipation for your ``I told you so`` posts.

If we are 0-5 or 0-6 in the home n away season, then go to town but fair dinkum, go easy fellas. NAB Cup FFS

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

Yes the post was interesting for the Stats - it tells us what we already know - we are a young side, and given our access to early draft picks over the last three years, we should be closer to the Hawthorn example than the Cats. But we are not because of how we have recruited. Hawthorn recruited in their early drafts two dominant tall forwards - Roughhead and Franklin, both dominated the GF 08. They also had a number one draft pick from 5 years before, Luke Hodge, a medium sized player with superb skills who complemented those two talls superbly. We traded our only older no. 1 draft pick, Travis Johnstone, who in many ways plays a similar role to Hodge, with wonderful delivery and skills. We have no-one equivalent to Johnstone on our list of similar age and skill.

As far as dominant forwards are concerned we have Watts who I am sure will develop into a superstar but not yet, and may well be better than either of the Hawks. But we don't have two of them. Fitzpatrick is young and raw, and Jurrah is an entirely different sort of player who in my opinion would be very important as a third mobile tall like say Robbo, except faster and possibly more skillful.In the meantime, our best option is to rest the Russian and PJ up forward as tall marking targets.

As you can see from my name, I believe a flag in 2014 is our destiny, so who am i to question the thrust of these entries. But I do take counsel from the warnings we may not have that time. We need to show continuous progress and be competing for the 8 in one to two years. My alarm about our first two outings this year is that we seemed weaker than any MFC team I have ever watched, and i've been watching them for 40 years. My faith in progress to 2014 has taken a severe pounding over the last two weeks.

You raise some good points and i think i am on a similiar level of thinking.

The TJ trade can be debated, but you gotta spend money to make money. It does leave a major hole in our senior list though, which somebody must fill if we are to improve this year.

I am not going to get overly concerned with anything until the season starts proper (if i need to of course!) The team is still Training.

Yes we must start the improve or else we will be stepped on and nobody but we MFC supporters will care or notice it even happened.

[bing181 9,218]

I hold the opinion that our players are hearing the company line " we are a young team that's building" AND consequently not performing up to their capability as a team instead of the Voss or Scott line "we may have a young side but we expect to be competitive".

Firstly, without you being in team meetings etc., I'm not sure how you can know what's being said to the players, and as such, what the "company line" is. Secondly, I've not heard DB making any excuses recently, quite the contrary. ".... everyone needs to earn their place", "no more excuses" etc. etc.

As for the Hawk's stats ... that's the exception that proves the rule if ever there was one. What happened to them last year?

B

[BAMF 4,349]

By the way was you impressed with Fitzpatricks first game at NAB level. I am sure Temel could have done equally well.

Of course he would have done as well, if not better. Fitzpatrick was gifted a few NAB Cup games to show him how the game is played at the top level. I have no doubt that Bailey and the rest of the coaches knew ex-actually what they would get out of Fitzpatrick during this time. Nothing.

But it was a great learning experience, he can play out the year at Casey knowing how far off he is and how hard he will have to work.

The only reason why Fitzpatrick will get a game in the seniors this year will be because of injuries to the talls.

[Keyser Söze 0]

Temel?

You still harping on about him..?

I was right when I told you he'd be lucky to get rookied.

He's slow, has well-below-average agility, is an ok kick and was bigger than most of the other kids at TAC level.

He's with the Bendigo Bombers now apparently and I can tell you with absolute certainty we will never see him play an AFL game.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

The TJ trade can be debated

No it can't. It just can't. Grimes looks set to become a super player and a great leader while Johnstone has been his mediocre, inconsistent self.

On Grand Final day 2014, Johnstone will have just turned 34, are you saying you would rather have him running out for the match than a 25-year old Jack Grimes? Surely you jest!

[H_T 3,043]

One of the most realistic and thoughtful posts i have seen on here. Bring a welcome sense of realism to the table.

By the way welcome 2014-Flag to Demonland. enjoy.

[Deestroy All 14,265]

No it can't. It just can't. Grimes looks set to become a super player and a great leader while Johnstone has been his mediocre, inconsistent self.

On Grand Final day 2014, Johnstone will have just turned 34, are you saying you would rather have him running out for the match than a 25-year old Jack Grimes? Surely you jest!

He'll have a better beard than Grimes, who still wouldn't have started shaving yet. Although, he can let his football skills draw attention. zing.

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

No it can't. It just can't. Grimes looks set to become a super player and a great leader while Johnstone has been his mediocre, inconsistent self.

On Grand Final day 2014, Johnstone will have just turned 34, are you saying you would rather have him running out for the match than a 25-year old Jack Grimes? Surely you jest!

For the Record I totally agree with the Johnstone trade, but i can understand people debating it considering the state of our present forward line.

[jayceebee31 760]

Of course he would have done as well, if not better. Fitzpatrick was gifted a few NAB Cup games to show him how the game is played at the top level. I have no doubt that Bailey and the rest of the coaches knew ex-actually what they would get out of Fitzpatrick during this time. Nothing.

But it was a great learning experience, he can play out the year at Casey knowing how far off he is and how hard he will have to work.

The only reason why Fitzpatrick will get a game in the seniors this year will be because of injuries to the talls.

It will be very interesting to see if they play him in Adelaide-- based on training today he will play.

Edited March 5, 2010 by jayceebee31

[jnrmac 20,058]

TJ finished in our TOP 10 B& F TWICE in 10 years!!! He won it once and was third the other time. For a No1 pick it was not good enough.

Add to that the fact he was lazy and you have a fantastic trade for Grimes. TJ has played intermittently at the Bears and certainly hasn't lived up to their expectations.

Grimes is a GUN.

[45HG 1,539]

For the Record I totally agree with the Johnstone trade, but i can understand people debating it considering the state of our present forward line.

Huh?

[wonnabeeri 275]

I've had enough of some of the garbage written by GG and Tiger etc on demonology. Not visiting there any more. Its all rubbish.