ANOTHER YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART TWO

[Demonland 71,111]

Demonland presents the second in the series on the forthcoming drafts by "Stevo" as told to Whispering Jack ...

ANOTHER YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART TWO by Stevo

SWIFT FLOWS THE DRAFT - THE WILD CARDS

It was a little over 19 months ago that Tom Swift was sitting on top of the world. The young Western Australian was already making a name for himself as an elite junior footballer after starring in the previous year's national carnival for under 16 players. Then disaster struck.

A member of the AIS-AFL academy squad about to embark on a tour of South Africa, Swift was the youngest of five team leaders of the touring group, the others being Trent Cotchin, Brad Ebert, Jack Grimes and Brendan Whitecross. Before the touring side left the country it assembled in Perth where it played an exhibition match on 7 April 2007 against WAFL team Perth at Subiaco Oval as a curtain raiser to the round 3 West Coast-Collingwood AFL match. Swift started the game well but late in the first quarter he landed awkwardly on his left leg which buckled at the knee and his ACL snapped. The injury put him out of football for 12 months but that wasn't the end of his troubles. An injury to the right knee which, while not as serious, managed to curtail most of his 2008 season.

In the interim, Swift saw two of his WA team mates and fellow academy members Nick Naitanui and Daniel Rich play in two national under 18 carnivals, achieve All Australian honours and championship medallions, ease themselves into senior football playing in WAFL grand finals (in Rich's case he has two premiership medallions with Subiaco) and assume favouritism for early selection with their own local AFL clubs for this month's national draft.

Swift's name however, was not entirely forgotten by AFL recruiters despite the limited number of appearances on the football field. Last month he made it to the national draft camp in Canberra where he excelled in a number of tests and he is now back on the draft radar with a vengeance. There are strong indications that he will go somewhere in the top twenty and, since I'm a real stickler for an omen bet, the clincher for me was the win at Rose Hill last Saturday by the Gai Waterhouse trained Swift Alliance (@$1.40), his second win from as many starts!

The Tom Swift story highlights the quirkiness of the field for this month's national draft. He is one of a handful of hopefuls who are true draft wild cards - capable of being picked very early but also possible drifters who could fall to late in the first round or beyond. The other "wild cards" are Phil Davis, Stephen Hill, Steele Sidebottom, Jackson Trengove and Chris Yarran. Ayce Cordy, a 202cm ruckman from the Geelong Falcons who spent most of 2008 on the sidelines with injury would have been on the list but has been snapped up as a father-son selection by the Bulldogs.

Phil Davis from St Peters College in Adelaide is tall (193cm), athletic and capable of playing in virtually any key position on the ground but like Swift, played very little football this year. Davis suffered a shoulder injury early in the season, came back and played and was selected for the South Australian Under 18 side but a recurrence of the injury meant surgery on the shoulder and an end to his season. The Crows have been keeping tabs on Davis for some time and his talent has not gone unnoticed in several other quarters. He is a real dark horse for selection in the first round of the national draft.

Stephen Hill was one of WA's stand out players in the national carnival as a half back flanker/wingman with the ability to play in the middle. He was selected in the All-Australian team but most ranked him well below fellow Sandgropers in Rich, Naitanui and Chris Yarran. However, his star rose to great heights after draft camp testing revealed the extent of his sheer pace and agility. Suddenly the draft camp record breaker (2.77 in the 0m sprint) appeared in great demand with an article in the West Australian newspaper indicating that Fremantle might consider him ahead of Rich at #3 while another newspaper report suggested he was a good chance to go at 5 to Essendon.

Steele Sidebottom had a consistent year with the premiership winning Murray Bushrangers and the Victorian Country team in national championships. He won All-Australian honours and capped his year off with an excellent TAC Cup finals series and a sensational 32 possessions and 10 goals in the grand final. On that basis, he should have been considered a certainty for top 10 selection. A clever player whose skills are good on both sides, has great endurance and a quick thinker, Sidebottom's draft camp speed tests were however, not to the liking of many observers and suddenly (and inexplicably to some people) his draft stocks have fallen somewhat. The draft camp seems to have had the reverse effect on Sidebottom's prospects to those of Hill but he's a true footballer and I still expect him to be taken in the top ten or very close to that mark.

Twelve months ago Jackson Trengove was one of the stars of the Calder Cannons premiership side. He had just completed an outstanding finals series and, but for the fact that he was ineligible because of his young age might well have been selected in the top 10 last November. Flash forward another six months and Trengove was on track for a top 5 draft berth after gaining selection as a ruckman/forward for Victoria Metro for the Under 18 championships. After playing the first game of the series, his hamstring tore so badly off the bone in a training mishap that he required surgery in June. The injury took its time healing (there was a follow up operation in July) and it was only recently that he was given a positive medical report suggesting he was healing well enough for him to come into high draft calculations again.

Chris Yarran is an enigma but not for reasons of injury but rather because there are some that question his attitude and his application to the game. Yarran has been a stand out in the WAFL runner up team Swan Districts alongside Naitanui and another young up and comer in Clancee Pearce. He kicks the impossible goal and has been compared with Port Power's Shaun Burgoyne but the doubters have cast a slight pall over his draft prospects. He'll certainly be taken but perhaps not as early as we might have thought earlier in the year.

This group of players whose draft destinations are unknown and slightly problematic is indicative of why this draft is so unpredictable. At one stage or another they might have been considered early selections or possibilities to go in the range of the Demons' second round selections at 17 and 19. One or two still might be there but quite a few of them will be selected well before Melbourne's Barry Prendergast calls out his second selection of the draft meeting.

Last year, some observers were successful in calling most of the top ten selections in advance. Thanks to this year's wild cards, that prospect is highly unlikely in 2008.

[Rolling Stone 155]

THE WILD CARDS

I think this all means that the presence of the wild cards can only help Melbourne's cause because it will add to the list of quality players available when our picks come around at 17 and 19.

[Neita3000 37]

There will be one or two players who haven't been mentioned who will definetly be taken in the first round this year. Last year it was Robbie Tarrant, the year before our very own James Frawley. Matt Burgatron's phantom draft which will come out next thursday is generally petty accurate, his writeups are excellent aswell.

I personally can see Sidebottom falling to 17. Would love to take him there even though he is a little one paced and doesn't neccesarrily add to a need, he would just be too good to pass up.

[e25 5]

I'm thinking those left for us to choose from at 17 will be McKernan, Blease, Swift, Schoenmakers, Robinson, Walters & possibly Lisle.

Not a bad group to select from.

I doubt Swift will still be there though, but i hope I'm wrong.

[Slartibartfast 17,095]

A great read Whispering, thanks.

[H_T 3,043]

Thanks WJ, well done. Swift Alliance - I don't mind the odd omen now and again either. Wild Card or not, would be a good pick up nevertheless.

[Guest Schtacker]

Awesome read WoJo you are a star

There are at least 13 genuinely well rated kids in addition to your 6 wildcards so we should in theory walk away with 3 beauties

We nabbed Grimes last year at an injury-reduced price, would love to do the same this time round with that Swift kid - midfield is still missing 1 or 2 bonafides

[Whispering_Jack 29,686]

A great read Whispering, thanks.

Thanks Fan but it's not my work. I merely transcribed it from the words supplied by Stevo and put it in the form of an article. He's pretty forthright about how some of the young players at the club have (not) developed over recent years. I suppose it's a case of watch this space.

[Tex 68]

My top 19 Picks:

1. Melb- Jack "Killer" Watts

2. WC- Rich

3. Freo- Naitanui

4. Port- Vickery

5. Ess- Ziebell

6. Visy- Hurley

7. Bris- Swift

8. Rich- Sidebottom

9. Nth- Johnston

10. Adel- Hartlett

11. Coll- Yarran

12. Syd- Shoenmakers

13. StK- Trengove

14. WB- Cordy

15. Geel- McKernan

16. Haw- Lisle

17. Melb -Zaharakis

18. WCE - Cornelius

19. Melb - O'Keeffe

This is not exactly what i want to see but i think this is what will happen.

I have absolute faith that we will pick Jack Watts first and i am praying that one of Shoenmaker, Johnstone or Swift falls to pick 17, but i don't think they will.

And i would love Sidebottom or Yarran at pick 19 as i think both have star qualities.

However i will still be very happy if we pick up both Zaharakis and O'Keeffe with picks 17 & 19 as both are All-Australians this year and both have excellent kicking skills and Zaharkis has the pace we desperately need and he is AFL ready.

[alpha33 308]

Although a few of you might be getting a bit sick of this, it still interests me and Emma Quayle of the Age was interviewed again on SEN with some interesting comments that I'd like to share with you. She said this is proving to be a very tough year to determine who the clubs are going for with a dozen different scenarios and things are changing on a daily basis.

The go home factor is probably not as strong as it used to be with the boys more easily capable of being settled away from home. They're more mature ans the clubs are better at looking after draftees from interstate with for e.g. foster family arrangements etc.

Anyhow she has rearranged her top ten along these lines:

1. Melbourne - Jack Watts - still not 100% but close. She doesn't think he will be ready to go straight away.

2. West Coast - looks like going for height in Nick Naitanui even though he needs more development work in him.

3. Fremantle - the key that will set the tone because the Dockers are undecided between Daniel Rich and Stephen Hill. It's hard to know what Fremantle will do and their decision will obviously affect what happens from there.

4. Port Adelaide - Mark Williams always has a big say in the decision here and apparently hasn't met with his recruiters yet> If Freo take Hill, it will be Rich, otherwise Hamish Hartlett.

5. Essendon - Michael Hurley or Steele Sidebottom. The Bombers were interested in Chris Yarran but may have turned off him recently. They say they will take the best available .

6. Carlton - will take Rich if he falls to them. Yarran and/or Hurley in contention.

7. Brisbane - Vossy likes Jack Ziebell.

8. Richmond - Tyrone Vickery - seems they want Hartlett but he probably won't be available by the time their pick comes around.

9. North Melbourne - depends very much on who slides to them They are keen on Lewis Johnston but could settle for Hurley if Essendon and Carlton take Yarran and Rich.

10. Adelaide - the Crows like Trengove but he is still having tests on his knee due to some nerve issues he is still having and this will have an impact on their decision. The Crows also like Shaun McKernan.

Well, after that there is Collingwood, Sydney, St. Kilda, Geelong & Hawthorn before Melbourne's next pick and West Coast before our third pick. I'm more and more confident that we can pick up three class footballers in 2008 to put us on the road to a return to being a contender again in the not too distant future.

[Pinball Wizard 313]

The HUN has a charcter called "Phantom" (blech) who produced this one today:

1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)

2. Nick Natanui (West Coast)

3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle)

4. Daniel Rich (Port Power)

5. Michael Hurley (Essendon)

6. Chris Yarran (Carlton)

7. Jack Ziebell (Brisbane)

8. Tyrone Vickery (Richmond)

9. Hamish Hartlett (North)

10. Jackson Trengrove (Adelaide)

11. Tom Swift (Collingwood)

12. Lewis Johnston (Sydney)

13. Sam Blease (St Kilda)

14. Ayce Cordy (Dogs)

15. Steele Sidebottom (Cats)

16. Phil Davis (Hawthorn)

17. Tom Lynch (Melbourne)

18. Michael Walters (West Coast)

19. James Strauss (Melbourne)

20. David Zaharakis (West Coast)

21. Hayden Ballantyne (Fremantle)

22. Luke Shuey (Port Adelaide)

23. Ashley Smith (Essendon)

24. Shaun McKernan (Fremantle)

25. Dayne Beams (Brisbane)

26. Jayden Post (Richmond)

27. Mitch Brown (North)

28. Mitch Robinson (Adelaide)

29. Jordan Lisle (Collingwood)

30. Nick Suban (Sydney)

31. Ryan Schoenmakers (Dogs)

32. Liam Jones (Dogs)

33. Nathan O'Keefe (Cats)

34. Sam Wright (Hawks)

McKernan at #24? He's dreaming!

[Hannabal 4]

The HUN has a charcter called "Phantom" (blech) who produced this one today:

1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)

2. Nick Natanui (West Coast)

3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle)

4. Daniel Rich (Port Power)

5. Michael Hurley (Essendon)

6. Chris Yarran (Carlton)

7. Jack Ziebell (Brisbane)

8. Tyrone Vickery (Richmond)

9. Hamish Hartlett (North)

10. Jackson Trengrove (Adelaide)

11. Tom Swift (Collingwood)

12. Lewis Johnston (Sydney)

13. Sam Blease (St Kilda)

14. Ayce Cordy (Dogs)

15. Steele Sidebottom (Cats)

16. Phil Davis (Hawthorn)

17. Tom Lynch (Melbourne)

18. Michael Walters (West Coast)

19. James Strauss (Melbourne)

McKernan at #24? He's dreaming!

If the first 16 were correct, which they probably won't be, we could end up with Watts, McKernan, and Walters with our first 3. That would be terrific. I like Lynch as a footballer, but he's not what we presently need and nor is he necessarily best available.

You'd think by now that the HS would have up to date measurements of the players.

[Late Draft Pick 48]

Interested in Alpha's report from Emma Quayle. No mention of Blease or Swift but they could still make up the top 16. She's no longer mentioning Davis or Beames. Her short summary of McKernan in The Age this morning had him going 10-16; there's that magic number again.

Haydo's doesn't mention Blease or Hill in his first 16. And then this guy leaves out McKernan. I have this vision of Geelong and Hawthorn playing sweepers and snatching some dream pick from us at the last minute. Not that I don't think there are a further 4 or 5 very good players I'd be pleased with after that.

I think pick 35 makes this draft even more interesting for Melbourne supporters.

The Carlton recruiter said there seems to be a consensus that there are 40 good picks in this draft.

[LeBron James 41]

Emma Quayles 1st 10, and a possible top 18.

1: Watts

2: Naita

3: Hill

4: Rich

5: Yarran

6: Hurley

7: Ziebell

8: Hartlett

9: Johnston

10: Trengrove

11: Sidebottom

12: Mckernan

13: Blease

14: Cordy

15: Schoenmakers

16: Davis

17: Vickery

18: Swift

[Redleg 40,773]

Emma Quayles 1st 10, and a possible top 18.

1: Watts

2: Naita

3: Hill

4: Rich

5: Yarran

6: Hurley

7: Ziebell

8: Hartlett

9: Johnston

10: Trengrove

11: Sidebottom

12: Mckernan

13: Blease

14: Cordy

15: Schoenmakers

16: Davis

17: Vickery :o

18: Swift

Go Emma !!!!!!!!!!!!

[LeBron James 41]

Actually one sec, before we all cream our pants in excitement, im not sure if it's her 18 (it's definately her top 10). Someone might have added onto it (got it from bigfooty http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=13088970 post #184). Hopefully it is hers though.

[Redleg 40,773]

Actually one sec, before we all cream our pants in excitement, im not sure if it's her 18 (it's definately her top 10). Someone might have added onto it (got it from bigfooty http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=13088970 post #184). Hopefully it is hers though.

Now you have ruined my day.

[LeBron James 41]

Damn, looks like he just added onto it! I better go see AMI haha.

[Hannabal 4]

But it keeps highlighting the likelihood that the Dees will have available a McKernan, Swift, Walters, Schoenmakers, Blease, or Sidebottom at 17.

[LeBron James 41]

This draft is really shaping up as a hard one to pick, even by the draft 'experts'. There are alot of early picks that could still go either way, this time last year we had a pretty good idea it would be:

1. Kreuzer

2. Cotchin

3. Masten

4. Morton

5. Grant

Can't wait for Burgan's mock, his usually go close to it.

[Whispering_Jack 29,686]

The Carlton recruiter said there seems to be a consensus that there are 40 good picks in this draft.

He said that because Carlton has pick 40. In actuality, there are only 39 good picks in this draft.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

Emma Quayles 1st 10, and a possible top 18.

1: Watts

2: Naita

3: Hill

4: Rich

5: Yarran

6: Hurley

7: Ziebell

8: Hartlett

9: Johnston

10: Trengrove

11: Sidebottom

12: Mckernan

13: Blease

14: Cordy

15: Schoenmakers

16: Davis

17: Vickery

18: Swift

If that's her was she on a bender before she wrote that

[youami 54]

No chance they will go a ruck at pick 17 as they know or should safely assume WC will not go for a ruck if they pick the nat.

If that makes any sense. Therefore if they're planning on picking a ruck they'd pick the ruck at pick 19.

[Hulett Packard III 166]

No chance they will go a ruck at pick 17 as they know or should safely assume WC will not go for a ruck if they pick the nat.

If that makes any sense. Therefore if they're planning on picking a ruck they'd pick the ruck at pick 19.

If it's Vickery they would take him at #17,

[Late Draft Pick 48]

He said that because Carlton has pick 40. In actuality, there are only 39 good picks in this draft.

That's funny, I had't realized that.