Who will be out the door at seasons end?

[CaptainCol 0]

We are at the start of a very long rebuilding phase, it's going to be a very long couple of years before we are going to be competitive once more... White, Bruce, Green, Robbo in my mind won't be traded... 3 of those have played all their footy at Melbourne and i think it would be heartbreaking for them if they were traded... keep these players along with the more mature players in McDonald and co. they will help develop our rookies...

Our backline is poor and it has been for quite sometime... you can't expect Warnock, Garland or Frawley bear most of the load down back in their first two or three seasons, they don't have the bodies for it... I think that Rivers will definately help out when he comes back in the next few weeks and zone off his opponent to help out Garland and Warnock, but it is a tall order for them...

CJ, Weetra and Bode are far from our best 22 and i doubt they'll ever be in our best 22 so you can show them the door... I think Sylvia will probably get another season with us, but he really must shine and soon... I don't think Jones will ever be a star, some of you my disagree, but a star has the ability to win a game from their own boot and i think Melbourne doesn't have a star at all, you look at all the other teams and you can name one, two or three players who can change the outcome of a game, with Melbourne you can't these days... i think Jones will become a Junior type player, just winning the hard ball and running all day and there's nothing wrong with that...

It's time to trim the fat and get rid of all the useless players, that aren't going to help us be competitive in the next few seasons... You've gotta keep White, our other ruckmen aren't any good... and Natanui, we haven't got him yet so i'd probably take him out of your signature for MFC 2009... Our forward line is going to struggle in the next few years... with Neitz (retired) and Robertson out for 12 months its going to mean that players like Holland (who may also retire), Bate, Miller and possibly Newton (trade or delist??), if he can find his brain, will cop the major defensive tags...

Looking at it we're pretty much stuffed across the board, maybe apart from our midfield... its not really going to matter who we get rid of and who we get at seasons end, its still going to be a up hill battle, think Carlton of the last 5 plus years... that's where we are gonna be, a probably worse with the Gold Coast team coming in and taking the majority of the better draftee's in the next few years... It's going to be dark times ahead but there is light with players like Davey, Bate, Aussie, Jones, Morton(Will be a key position forward) and Chooka(Will Captain the club) all try hard all day and are showing plenty...

[Hannabal 4]

You cannot trade away all of your experience regardless of whether they are likely to play in a GF or not.

Rivers is hardly "all of our experience". You're probably right and he's most likely "going nowhere", but if you want more of the same sit on your hands and do nothing.

Rivers isn't quick and yes, he hasn't needed to be due to his great reading of the play, but the game is getting more and more athletic which doesn't suit him. Put simply, Rivers is good but he's no star. We need another first round pick. Where's it coming from ? We need stars, we don't have any, and the next draft is one of our last realistic chances to raid the country's pantry of talent.

We had 3 picks in the top 21 last year and if we can gain 4 picks in the top 20 this year on the back of a trade and a pp pick before the start of the second round we will have drafted (potentially) 7 of the best 40 players over the last 2 years to form the nucleus of a great young list. In the same period some clubs would have drafted 2 in that same 40 and neither in the top 10.

Our future is now and smart decisions need to be made. Some of them may seem hard. They need to be.

Note: Morton might be a star. Let's try and surround him with as much talent as we possibly can at this year's draft table.

[Little Goffy 14,639]

5 years to be a shot at top four (thus flag)?

Of the following players, only Green is over 25. This is totally speculative, but most have at least demonstrated competitiveness and are showing real signs of improvement recently.

There's a lot of question marks, definately, but it's quite conceivable that these will all be quality players given time under the Dean Bailey 'teaching' regime, backed by two dedicated development coaches compared to zero for the last ten years.

The glaring hole at the moment is first ruck - I think PJ will always be a second ruck/heavy utility (and valuable in that role). So the question is, will that be Naitanui or Robbie Warnock or what?

B: Bell Garland Frawley

HB: Bartram Rivers Grimes

C: Davey Sylvia Petterd

HF: Morton Bate Green

F: Maric Miller Wonaeamirri

ONB: Mclean Jones

Interchange: PJ, Moloney, Dunn, Buckley

Don't like some? Replace them Warnock, Newton, Valenti, or some of Cheney, McNamara, Martin, or this coming year's five draft picks, 1 Pre-season pick, and two new rookies.

Many of our young players still have question marks, of course, but to those who say "but Grimes and Maric haven't even played" they were picks 14 and 21 last year. So, Grimes and Maric are what you'd trade Green and Rivers to get, then?

Five years is far too pessimistic for me. Get some good development from these kids, add a couple of the more solid and uninjured veterans from our list (almost down to Wheatley and Green now, hopes for Whelan to shake the bad luck and McDonald to rediscover form) and throw in one or two ready-to-go players from the next draft or two.

If things go well, three years to top four is a reasonable aim. And before you say anything - is there any way into the top four other than for things to go well?

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Rivers is hardly "all of our experience". You're probably right and he's most likely "going nowhere", but if you want more of the same sit on your hands and do nothing.

Rivers isn't quick and yes, he hasn't needed to be due to his great reading of the play, but the game is getting more and more athletic which doesn't suit him. Put simply, Rivers is good but he's no star. We need another first round pick. Where's it coming from ? We need stars, we don't have any, and the next draft is one of our last realistic chances to raid the country's pantry of talent.

We had 3 picks in the top 21 last year and if we can gain 4 picks in the top 20 this year on the back of a trade and a pp pick before the start of the second round we will have drafted (potentially) 7 of the best 40 players over the last 2 years to form the nucleus of a great young list. In the same period some clubs would have drafted 2 in that same 40 and neither in the top 10.

Our future is now and smart decisions need to be made. Some of them may seem hard. They need to be.

Note: Morton might be a star. Let's try and surround him with as much talent as we possibly can at this year's draft table.

"Very good chance that next year or the year after he will be our most experienced defenders. You cannot trade away all of your experience regardless of whether they are likely to play in a GF or not."

Thanks hannabal, the sentence preceding the one that you chose to quote puts the sentence in context. He is likely to soon be our most experienced defender.

I understand and salute your passion for wanting to get the MFC going places. It is my opinion that Rivers will and should be retained. The outcome is likely that with that selection we would gain player that was inferior to Rivers.

My opinion also is that Rivers along with just a few others has the courage and nous to help create a winning culture at the club. That would be traded away with him.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

End of the day, I don't think we'll trade away too many players for high picks because we won't get offered what we think they're worth to us.

Correct.

We don't have Rawlings or Hay to trade away unfortunately.

[mo64 5,881]

All this talk of trading for early draft picks is garbage. With the new Gold Coast side having a stockpile of early picks from 2009, clubs will not trade early picks unless there's a Jono Brown trade involved.

So all this talk of trading the likes of Sylvia, Bruce and Green for 2nd or 3rd round draft picks is senseless.

[Hannabal 4]

It is my opinion that Rivers will and should be retained. The outcome is likely that with that selection we would gain player that was inferior to Rivers.

My opinion also is that Rivers along with just a few others has the courage and nous to help create a winning culture at the club. That would be traded away with him.

I'm not so sure about that. As the year moves forward you'll hear more and more how highly rated this year's top 20 is. Players like McKernan, Watts, Heyne, and Sidebotom, to name a few will be around the 8-10 mark. I saw McKernan in the flesh recently and would take him in a heartbeat over Rivers.

Rivers reputation on these Boards doesn't match his output, injuries not withstanding. It's not unusual for Melbourne supporters to overrate their own. Good player, but hardly indispensible, especially when our window has closed and we need to take advantage of this draft.

[Hannabal 4]

All this talk of trading for early draft picks is garbage. With the new Gold Coast side having a stockpile of early picks from 2009, clubs will not trade early picks unless there's a Jono Brown trade involved.

So all this talk of trading the likes of Sylvia, Bruce and Green for 2nd or 3rd round draft picks is senseless.

Correct, and it's why Rivers is only an outside chance of a decent pick, but a chance worth exploring. One club may just see him rounding out their bid for a flag in 09. And he's still young, so it's not a pipedream.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I'm not so sure about that. As the year moves forward you'll hear more and more how highly rated this year's top 20 is. Players like McKernan, Watts, Heyne, and Sidebotom, to name a few will be around the 8-10 mark. I saw McKernan in the flesh recently and would take him in a heartbeat over Rivers.

Rivers reputation on these Boards doesn't match his output, injuries not withstanding. It's not unusual for Melbourne supporters to overrate their own. Good player, but hardly indispensible, especially when our window has closed and we need to take advantage of this draft.

If we get a top 10 pick for Rivers I would trade him. We will not get a top 10 pick for Rivers. We would not get anything in the first 20. I dont think I overate Rivers. He has his deficiencies. He is not a champion or a star. he is a solid and clever defender. we have no others of his ilk. You need to have a measured approach to rebuiling not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

[demonique 314]

Does anyone believe that we will win a flag in the next 5 years ? I don't. Realistically, 6-7 years will be our next window due to this rebuild, when Morton, Grimes, Jones, and the next batch of picks will be around 24-26. How old will Rivers be then - 30/31 ? How fast will he be then ? How fast will the game be then ?

For pick 10 it's very worthy of consideration depending upon how our recruiters rate this draft. Currently pick 10 means nothing to most supposrters, it's just a number, but if the hype is to be believed, pick 10 should yield a very very good player. Would he even yield pick 10 ? He'd probably go close. We won't rise up the ladder without hard decisions.

As for the person saying that Sylvia would yield pick 20, you're dreaming. And I doubt Bell would get you a cold pie.

By the time Rivers is fit he will probably be 30-31.

Actually don't know how good/bad Rivers is ,he's hardly played in the past couple of seasons, the game has changed, christ the whole world has changed in the past 2 years.

[Hannabal 4]

If we get a top 10 pick for Rivers I would trade him. We will not get a top 10 pick for Rivers. We would not get anything in the first 20. I dont think I overate Rivers. He has his deficiencies. He is not a champion or a star. he is a solid and clever defender. we have no others of his ilk. You need to have a measured approach to rebuiling not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The facts are you don't know what we'd get, nor do I. It is a more difficult market than when S. Thompson, Jolly, Woewodin, Moloney, Hay, N. Thompson, Johnstone, Tarrant, etc gained top 20 picks, but Rivers is still young and could be a good fit for a club on the precipice.

The point I've been making is that if we could achieve a 10-15 pick, subject to our recruiters thoughts on what is expected to be a bumper crop, I'd 'explore' a trade.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

We had 3 picks in the top 21 last year and if we can gain 4 picks in the top 20 this year on the back of a trade and a pp pick before the start of the second round we will have drafted (potentially) 7 of the best 40 players over the last 2 years to form the nucleus of a great young list. In the same period some clubs would have drafted 2 in that same 40 and neither in the top 10.

Our future is now and smart decisions need to be made. Some of them may seem hard. They need to be.

I completely agree with that, and some people are delusional if they think that we'll get a top 10 pick if we trade Sylvia or Bruce.

However, I think we need to look at trading our surplus. I love Jones, he's great, but if we lose him we still have McLean, Moloney, Valenti and maybe even Grimes. So assuming we use his pick on a dud, the net loss won't be too great.

Question is, can we get a top 15 pick for Jones?

At the end of the day we have to be smart about which young player we choose to trade because our perception of how long it will take us to rebuild and be in premiership contention could prove to be wrong. We could be in contention within 2 years, or it could take us 8 or 10 years. If it's going to take us 10 years, we can easily trade away Rivers, McLean, Davey and so on because they won't be around to witness a flag anyways. However if we manage to perform a much quicker turnaround (and in reality we've started our rebuild at the end of last year), than trading away a player whos qualities are unique, could really hurt us. That's why trading someone like Rivers really does scare me because you just never know where you'll be in a year or two.

[Hannabal 4]

We could be in contention within 2 years, or it could take us 8 or 10 years.

You're delusional.

[Rogue 585]

If it's going to take us 10 years, we can easily trade away ...

If it's going to take us 10, we may as well trade away everyone drafted before 2006

[Jaded No More 68,974]

You're delusional.

I want to see a premiership before I go overseas to work dammit!

But seriously, Port had a really quick mini-rebuild and they played in a GF last year. Brisbane, god knows how, but they are slowly coming back. We could easily be playing finals in 2 years, and when you play finals, anything can happen.

Fine ok, I'm delusional.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I completely agree with that, and some people are delusional if they think that we'll get a top 10 pick if we trade Sylvia or Bruce.

However, I think we need to look at trading our surplus. I love Jones, he's great, but if we lose him we still have McLean, Moloney, Valenti and maybe even Grimes. So assuming we use his pick on a dud, the net loss won't be too great.

Question is, can we get a top 15 pick for Jones?

I dont think I have seen any posts saying that we would get a top 10 pick for either Bruce or Sylvia. If there was it would be single post and I missed it. I think the posters on this Board are more pragmatic here.

How much do you think a bottom club's surplus is worth on the trade table for other clubs? Particularly the worst midfield in the AFL. Is Jones a pick 15? I doubt it. In a midfield missing quality I would have thought Moloney is surplus and not worth much. And why when the comments about this draft being good out to the first 20 should we be risk managing the decision if we get a dud?

I would suggest that trading this year like most years will not yield many deals. If we are going to get a first round draft pick, which MFC player do you realistically think would draw that value from another club?

And Hannibal is right if you think we will be in contention in 2 years. And if it is believed to be taking 10 years, Bailey may as well toss the towel now. Rogue is spot on. You cannot possibly build anything for so far in the future.

[rpfc 28,779]

We are at the start of a very long rebuilding phase, it's going to be a very long couple of years before we are going to be competitive once more... White, Bruce, Green, Robbo in my mind won't be traded... 3 of those have played all their footy at Melbourne and i think it would be heartbreaking for them if they were traded... keep these players

We have been far too protective of careers.

If a club comes to us with a top 20 pick for Bruce or Green (Robbo has 1 year left, and White may not have any) we take it.

Otherwise we will enjoy their careers peetering out as we languish and wait for our next window; as that future is weakened by the fact that we didn't make the tough decisions...

We are 6 wins from our last 32 and I expect us to be 9 from our last 45 by the end of the year. No-one is, or at least should be, expendable from the desire to build for a flag in 5 years time. Considering Green and Bruce will not be around in 5 years - they should be first shopped around.

Again I say, if they do stay, I will cheer them on but I will take a flag over a tearful MCG shoulder-carry for a 32 yr old who played 250 games for the club.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

If a club comes to us with a top 20 pick for Bruce or Green (Robbo has 1 year left, and White may not have any) we take it.

Now you are being delusional!

None of those players would attract such a bid. FWIW, I think Robbo and White are close to the end and will finish their careers at MFC.

The players we shop around are going to have to be ones that have some value to other clubs and are outside a likely premiership window (4 to 5 years). Bruce might have limited value (possibly 30 to 40) and Green somewhat lower.

I dont think anyone would argue about career protection. Its the limited window we have to start to address it.

[grazman 7,451]

I think it's only natural that in any bad year that supporters want to wield the axe. Geelong resisted the temptation and won a premiership. We're a lot further away than that, but If you want to improve the culture of a club then you start by holding on for dear life to the players that display the values you want to build your club around. Rivers, Jones and McLean won't be going anywhere. Bruce and Green are worth more to the club than what we'd get in return so I don't see the point in trading them.

[Hannabal 4]

I think it's only natural that in any bad year that supporters want to wield the axe.

I don't want to "wield the axe", I want another top 15 pick. It's imperative for a club that is no where near top 4 to orchestrate one in this draft.

I want a club with the culture to be able to make a tough decision that improves the playing list and future chances of premiership success, not a club that doesn't trade Darren Kowal because he gets up at an B&F night and says that he loves the club and has no intention of going back to WA. He should've been sent packing.

I agree that there are degrees and fine lines when it comes to morale, loyalty, etc, but if ever the playing group was going to accept tough decisions it's on the back of a disastrous milestone year and with a new coach who rightfully will be making decisons with the longterm success of this club in mind.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

I dont think I have seen any posts saying that we would get a top 10 pick for either Bruce or Sylvia. If there was it would be single post and I missed it. I think the posters on this Board are more pragmatic here.

How much do you think a bottom club's surplus is worth on the trade table for other clubs? Particularly the worst midfield in the AFL. Is Jones a pick 15? I doubt it. In a midfield missing quality I would have thought Moloney is surplus and not worth much. And why when the comments about this draft being good out to the first 20 should we be risk managing the decision if we get a dud?

I would suggest that trading this year like most years will not yield many deals. If we are going to get a first round draft pick, which MFC player do you realistically think would draw that value from another club?

And Hannibal is right if you think we will be in contention in 2 years. And if it is believed to be taking 10 years, Bailey may as well toss the towel now. Rogue is spot on. You cannot possibly build anything for so far in the future.

Just because a player is surplus at one club, doesn't mean they are not good enough to become a core player at another club. Still, I agree that we probably wouldn't get a top 15 (or top 20) pick for Jones.

So you ask which player would get us a first round pick? I would say Davey, McLean, Rivers, probably Morton (not that he could even be traded) and Bate are the only players we may get a top 15 pick for. However if the draft is as good as everyone says, we might struggle to get a top 20 pick for anyone.

The thing is, you have to look at which teams are on the verge, or around the mark, and what they are looking for. Davey would be happily welcomed at Geelong and Sydney. The Dogs will probably love McLean to replace West and Bate as a tall forward target. Who would realistically give us a top 20 pick for Rivers? Probably Adelaide, except they will not part with their first round pick, and their second round pick will be a late one given they'll finish in the 8 or maybe even in the top 4.

At the end of the day it all comes down to perceived value versus actual value. I still can't believe we got pick 14 for TJ, but I'm filthy that we gave Thompson away for pick 12 (although we weren't in a bargaining position on that one). If we get a top 30 pick for Bruce I'd be over the moon, but anything higher than pick 10 for Rivers would be criminal and I just can't see any club parting with a top 10 pick for a player that has struggled with injury for over a year now.

We need to look at other avenues, perhaps trading a mid-aged player (Green?) plus our second round pick might get us a top 15 pick? I mean the Lions were crazy enough to give us pick 14 for a lazy, injury-prone, mid-age player. Green is a lot more stable, more versatile and less of a tool.

[Hannabal 4]

We need to look at other avenues, perhaps trading a mid-aged player (Green?) plus our second round pick might get us a top 15 pick?

So give up Green and pick 18-20 for pick 12 ?

Yeah, that makes sense.

[beelzebub 23,383]

So give up Green and pick 18-20 for pick 12 ?

Yeah, that makes sense.

Welll...would you believe Green and a 30-35 pick for #12 ??

good thinking 99

[Hannabal 4]

Welll...would you believe Green and a 30-35 pick for #12 ??

I don't think so.

(How bout...)

[beelzebub 23,383]

I think its unlikely wed really get anything thats usable in a draft deal or trade without spicing it up..and then as many have already alluded, we weaken the point of the exercise. Still Trade week can be ....."different"

We need to take full advantage of this..the last FAIR draft for many years. Somehow !!